Travellers in the Third Imperium

[tjoneslo]

In this 2006 post Chris Thrash estimates the number of Travellers, people who follow one of the six base CT career paths. (Merchant, Scout, Army, Navy, Marine, Other).

The original work is based upon the Traveller trade map as generated by Anthony Jackson, supported by estimates from various Traveller books. With the publication of the T5 Second Survey and the updated trade map generation numbers, I'm going to update Chris' work with the latest numbers and estimate.

GT:Starships p. 65 assumes each worker supports (on average) exactly one dependent. Chris' numbers assume a larger median number of dependents. For my work I'm assuming 1.75 dependents per worker.

Merchants & SPA:
The trade map calculates the number of SPA workers at 158 million, plus 275m dependents.

Following the articles example the number of merchants is based upon the total trade in the Imperium. The trade map data shows about 2,065 Tcr per year, or 100 billion tons shipping per year. Following the calculation we end up with 6 to 9 billion tons of starships carrying the cargo.

The trade map calculation, using the system from GT:Starports calculates there are 4,141,000,000 passengers per year, or about 80 million passenger per week. This requires 0.8 to 1.2 billion tons additional.

A total of 6.8 to 10.2 billion tons ship, with each 100 tons of ship requires one crew gives 68 million to 102 million crew, or rounding to 70 to 100 million.

The assumption from GT:Far Trader is each crew requires two ground side support staff, adding 140 million to 200 million support staff.

This gives a total of 210 million to 300 million merchants, plus 370 million to 525 million dependents. With the SPA's 158 million people and their 275 million dependents gives a total of 1,250 million.

Scouts:
Chris' calculation of scouts is based entirely around their bases. From the T5 Second Survey there are just shy of 1500 scout bases and 100 way stations in the Imperium. GT:Starports p 68 (sidebar) has the sizes of each of these bases.

1500 scout bases each with 200 to 300 scouts and 2000 dependents for at total of 300,000 active duty scouts and 3 million dependents.

100 way stations each with 1,000 scouts, 6,000 civilians, and 20,000 dependents for a total of 100,000 scouts, 600,000 civilians, and 2 million dependents.

Based on my review of the x-boat network I'm assuming 1000 x-boat stations, The T5 Second Survey data does not include the xboat links, though this is under discussion. 1000 xboat links each with 50 scouts and their 2000 dependents for a total of 50,000 scouts and 200,000 dependents

This calculates to 450,000 scouts, 600,000 civilians, and 5.2 million dependents or a total of 6.25 million people.

Navy:
None of the Traveller books I've reviewed gives any better number of active duty personnel in the navy than the estimate of 2,000 million that Chris derives. This includes the Marines.

Army:
The Imperial Army as calculated from the numbers in GT:Ground Forces is 818,217.97 Battalion Equivalents (BEs) with each BE assumed to be around 500 people. This is 410 million and an assumed 720 million dependents.

The Colonial army, the backup of the IA, is 1,709,926.60 BEs or 855 million people with an additional 1,500 million dependents.

This gives a total for the army of 3,490 million.

Other:
Chris estimates the number of "Other" based upon the passenger traffic generated by the merchants. Since our calculated passenger traffic is about half of Chris' original estimate, I half of Chris' original estimate or about 1,000 million people.

Nobility:
In this post, the total Landed nobility in the Imperium is 6000. In a subsequent posts, it was argued that the number of non-landed Nobility (Knights, Honor nobles, etc) who support the imperial bureaucracy was 60,000. I have no canon support to select another number, so I'll use that. The household staff to support the nobility is another factor of 10 larger, or 600,000. For rounding purpose, this is 1 million nobles and support staff, plus 1.75m dependents. This is folded into the "other" category within the estimate provided.

• Merchants - 1,250 million.
• Scouts - 6.25 million
• Navy & Marines - 2,000 million
• Army - 3,490 million
• Other - 1,000 million

7,746 million Travllers out of a population of 17,989,466 million is about 1 in 2300.

 

[rancke]

In GT:Starships p. 65 assumes each worker supports (on average) exactly one dependent. Chris' numbers assume a larger median number of dependents. For my work I'm assuming 1.75 dependents per worker.

World Tamer's Handbook says three dependents per worker.

Navy:
None of the Traveller books I've reviewed gives any better number of active duty personnel in the navy than the estimate of 2,000 million that Chris derives. This includes the Marines.

A while back I calculated that a numbered fleet would employ 300,000 people, of which 100,000 were civilian employees:

http://www.travellerrpg.com/CotI/Discuss/showthread.php?t=20680

Dependents are not included in that figure.

320 numbered fleets would amount to 96 million, less if there are any inactive fleets (which I consider likely). On top of that comes the IN reserves, fleets maintained by individual duchies, and the planetary defense forces. We don't know the proportions of the regular IN to reserves and duchy forces, but whatever the total is, planetary navies combined should anount to more than double that figure.



Hans

 

[tjoneslo]

World Tamer's Handbook says three dependents per worker.

There is a plausible argument to be made for any number between 0 and 4 depending upon the type of society you are trying to model.

A while back I calculated that a numbered fleet would employ 300,000 people, of which 100,000 were civilian employees:

I went back through Chris' analysis to figure out why the two of you got wildly different results. The difference ends up being the number of crew required for a given ship. Chris works from CT/HG crew requirements, where you are using ships from MT. I suspect if you do the same analysis using other design systems you'd come up with equally diverse set of answers.

 

[aramis]

There is a plausible argument to be made for any number between 0 and 4 depending upon the type of society you are trying to model.

try up to 6, depending upon culture/subculture. Especially in certain religious subcultures.

Mind you, 6 dependents would mean typical family sizes of 4-15.... and possibly 3 or more families.

I've seen families with two working parents, 2 non-working parents, and 12 kids, ranging in age from 18 down, with more on the way. Polygamy can extend the family unit considerably, polyandry somewhat less, but still expand... The ability to have multiple working adults and still have adults at home allows for better work reliability (and thus income) with more children.

 

[rancke]

I went back through Chris' analysis to figure out why the two of you got wildly different results. The difference ends up being the number of crew required for a given ship. Chris works from CT/HG crew requirements, where you are using ships from MT.

No I'm not:

* Assuming battleships have an average crew size equal to the average of the three battleships featured in Fighting Ships (= 2,250).

* Assuming cruisers and carriers have an average crew size equal to the average of the nine cruisers and carriers featured in Fighting Ships (= 400).

'Fighting Ships' is Supplement 9, as CT/HG as you can get.

I suspect if you do the same analysis using other design systems you'd come up with equally diverse set of answers.

But only one of the results can be correct for any single universe. While it may be possible (and even desirable) to ignore the differences for game purposes, for setting development someone (e.g. Marc Miller, fan consensus¹) has to canonize one set as the true figures. (Well... the true ballpark. No need to insist on an accuracy that's not really achievable.)

¹ Yeah, right! :rofl:​

Hans

 

[tjoneslo]

try up to 6, depending upon culture/subculture. Especially in certain religious subcultures.

Mind you, 6 dependents would mean typical family sizes of 4-15.... and possibly 3 or more families.

Here we're trying to model the Imperium with a near 0% population (and economic) growth rate. So large families won't be the normal. GT:Starports assumes two working parents each with a single child dependent. I'm making the assumption there are more families with a single working person, rather than two. For no good reason than I like the numbers better.

 

[aramis]

Here we're trying to model the Imperium with a near 0% population (and economic) growth rate. So large families won't be the normal. GT:Starports assumes two working parents each with a single child dependent. I'm making the assumption there are more families with a single working person, rather than two. For no good reason than I like the numbers better.

Keep in mind the multiple meanings of dependent - lots of military dependents are actually working.

And replacement level, given 70 year lifespan and mid-life reproduction, is 1.5 dependents... spouse and every 4th serviceman has two children; the rest have kids that are out of the home.

 

[rancke]

Here we're trying to model the Imperium with a near 0% population (and economic) growth rate.

Oh, I sincerely hope not. I've always considered the cut-and-paste of the 1105 Spinward Marches UWPs to 1111 and 1117 to be one of the biggest implausibilities in the setting. Sure, some worlds will have zero population growth. But mmany won't. When I block out the history of a world (usually in the Marches), the first thing I do is rough out the population growth from first settlement till 1105 (or 1120). And the populations usually grow between 1105 and 1117, even if I'm constrained to keep the first digit the same.


Hans

 

[mike wightman]

If you read the early adventures you would see that the setting is changing over the next few years.

New x-boat links are being built, starports are being upgraded, whole worlds are being colonised either by genetically modified colonists or shipping colonists from the core worlds to the frontier.