Spectacular Failure is broken
- Thread starter mvdwege
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Supplement Four
SOC-14 5K
Really, that's what my "fix" does. It gives the Ref a number, based on the character's skill and the difficulty of the task, that indicates a perfect result or special result occurred.
The ship is receiving a signal from a non-human vessel, but no one in the crew understands the language. The task becomes:
To understand the alien language
Difficult (3D) < (Communications + EDU)
Spectacular Success means any further rolls to communicate with the alien are made at 1D lower difficulty.
Freddy "Talk-Ta-Me" Brigands 578A66 Communications-2 will operate the ship's computer and attempt to translate the alien's communication.
Because Freddy has Skill-2, the TIH rule is applied to raise the difficulty by 1D. Freddy must roll 4D for 8 or less to understand the communication.
Spectacular Success is achieved if the roll is 5 or less.
Ok... either someone misunderstood what I wrote... or I wrote it poorly.
I'd put money down on the latter.
Marc's fix was for 1D or 2D tasks only, and that on those tasks, all 1s are SS and all 6s are SF, and a mix is... at least something spectacular.
I do thank all the folks for filling my box with math though. I really, really should never answer questions when I have a head-cold and cannot sleep late at night.
I'd put money down on the latter.
Marc's fix was for 1D or 2D tasks only, and that on those tasks, all 1s are SS and all 6s are SF, and a mix is... at least something spectacular.
I do thank all the folks for filling my box with math though. I really, really should never answer questions when I have a head-cold and cannot sleep late at night.
Supplement Four
SOC-14 5K
Nope, it was me. I read your post wrong.
So...Marc's fix is this....as I understand you now.
SS occurs on 1D and 2D tasks when all dice are ones.
SS occurs on 3D, 4D, and harder tasks when three ones are thrown.
If that is correct, then I "think" there is still a problem because the chance of roll SS on an 8D Beyond Impossible task is greater than the chance of rolling SS on a 1D Easy task.
I say "think" because that's a hell of a math problem, trying to work out the probability that three ones will appear on 8D.
The probability of SS on 1D is greater than that on 2D, and the probability of SS on 2D is greater than that on 3D. But, at some point, the harder tasks will start having a greater chance of SS than the Difficulty code before it.
Can anybody solve that problem easily in order to check my assumption?
Supplement Four
SOC-14 5K
Well then, he didn't change anything from the rule in the T5 book, then. SS happens whever three ones are thrown.
And, the original problems that are cited above come back into play.
Why does Marc enforce a rule where Spectacular Success is not even possible on the easiest of tasks? How does he defend that SS is possible on Formidable tasks but not on Average tasks?
More importantly, how does he defend that SS is vastly more likely on 8D Beyond Impossible tasks than it is on 3D Difficult tasks?
Supplement Four
SOC-14 5K
Some of you might find this interesting....
Check out the numbers that Draconian POSTED ABOVE IN POST #25.
Given Drac's numbers, and the T5 rule for Spectacular Success...
--> It is not at all possible to achieve Spectacular Success on an Average throw.
--> But, if the task is Difficult, Spectacular Success will happen once in 2,500 task throws!!!!
You could play years of Traveller--several campaigns--and never see SS occur on a Difficult task.
--> And, if the task is Beyond Impossible, Spectacular Success will happen more than one in ten task throws. That's 250 times MORE OFTEN than with Difficulty throws!
But, with extremely hard tasks, like Beyond Impossible, you'll see SS happen every couple of game sessions.
That should be a pretty clear point that something is wrong with the rule.
Check out the numbers that Draconian POSTED ABOVE IN POST #25.
Given Drac's numbers, and the T5 rule for Spectacular Success...
--> It is not at all possible to achieve Spectacular Success on an Average throw.
--> But, if the task is Difficult, Spectacular Success will happen once in 2,500 task throws!!!!
You could play years of Traveller--several campaigns--and never see SS occur on a Difficult task.
--> And, if the task is Beyond Impossible, Spectacular Success will happen more than one in ten task throws. That's 250 times MORE OFTEN than with Difficulty throws!
But, with extremely hard tasks, like Beyond Impossible, you'll see SS happen every couple of game sessions.
That should be a pretty clear point that something is wrong with the rule.
Supplement Four
SOC-14 5K
Oh, and here's one of the biggest reasons why the rule should be changed...
If a character ever has a chance of making a task roll that is lower than 12%, the player is better off looking for ways to increase the difficulty of the task.
For example...
Jesus "Jez" Rodriguez 768766 Explosives-3
Jez has found a nuclear bomb in a crate in the ship's hold, and the counter is counting down. Jez was an Explosives expert in the Army, but he's never worked on nuclear weapons before. No other crew member is trained in Explosives, and since the area of expertise is not a default skill, Jez is the only person on the ship with even a chance of defusing the bomb and saving the ship.
With the casing off the bomb, Jez sees that there are 660 wires exposed. He knows, from his previous training, that only one wire need be pulled to defuse stop the timer. That's the easiest way to stop the bomb from exploding. Knowing which wire to pull to defuse the bomb is the subject of the task.
To know which wire to pull to defuse the bomb.
Formidable (4D) < (Explosives + EDU)
Because of the This Is Hard rule, the task becomes 5D for 9 or less. This gives Jez a 2% chance of success. This is certainly better than the chance he's have just randomly picking one of the 660 wires.
And, incidently, Jez has a 3% chance of rolling Spectacular Success given the T5 rules. His chance of rolling SS is better than his normal chance of success!
The player decides to make the task harder. He says, "I want to put the hold into zero G and open it to vacuum. This way, if the bomb explodes, it won't have the medium of air to travel through. That might lessen some of the damage it does.
"I'll have to be in a Vacc Suit, so I'll be floating in Zero-G, even though I know the thick gloves will make it hard to work. And, I'm not going to tether myself to the bomb or anything else. I want at least a chance to get out of there if it looks like the bomb will blow. Plus, I'll work alone with no one else to hand me tools or advise me."
"OK," the Ref says, "I'll up the difficulty of the task by 3D where 1D penalty is for the Zero G work, 1D penalty is for the gloves, and 1D penalty for losing the help of the people standing around you."
That makes the task 8D. Jez must throw 8D for 9 or less, which is less than a 1% shot (it's about a one in 1,000,000 chance!).
But...Jez has a 12.8% chance of rolling Spectacular Success!!!!
Therefore, Jez's best option is to make the task has hard as possible so that the Ref will increase difficulty and increase the chance of Spectacular Success occurring!
See how truly messed up this rule is?
EDIT: What to see something even more crazy? Change Jez's EDU to EDU-5 and raise his skill to Explosives-4 (for the same target number of 9). Now, the TIH rule does not apply, so Jez can make the task rolling 4D for 9 or less. That's a 10% chance of success.
Jez IS STILL better off making the task an 8D Beyond Impossible difficulty, as his chance of success is HIGHER! 12.8%!!!
If a character ever has a chance of making a task roll that is lower than 12%, the player is better off looking for ways to increase the difficulty of the task.
For example...
Jesus "Jez" Rodriguez 768766 Explosives-3
Jez has found a nuclear bomb in a crate in the ship's hold, and the counter is counting down. Jez was an Explosives expert in the Army, but he's never worked on nuclear weapons before. No other crew member is trained in Explosives, and since the area of expertise is not a default skill, Jez is the only person on the ship with even a chance of defusing the bomb and saving the ship.
With the casing off the bomb, Jez sees that there are 660 wires exposed. He knows, from his previous training, that only one wire need be pulled to defuse stop the timer. That's the easiest way to stop the bomb from exploding. Knowing which wire to pull to defuse the bomb is the subject of the task.
To know which wire to pull to defuse the bomb.
Formidable (4D) < (Explosives + EDU)
Because of the This Is Hard rule, the task becomes 5D for 9 or less. This gives Jez a 2% chance of success. This is certainly better than the chance he's have just randomly picking one of the 660 wires.
And, incidently, Jez has a 3% chance of rolling Spectacular Success given the T5 rules. His chance of rolling SS is better than his normal chance of success!
The player decides to make the task harder. He says, "I want to put the hold into zero G and open it to vacuum. This way, if the bomb explodes, it won't have the medium of air to travel through. That might lessen some of the damage it does.
"I'll have to be in a Vacc Suit, so I'll be floating in Zero-G, even though I know the thick gloves will make it hard to work. And, I'm not going to tether myself to the bomb or anything else. I want at least a chance to get out of there if it looks like the bomb will blow. Plus, I'll work alone with no one else to hand me tools or advise me."
"OK," the Ref says, "I'll up the difficulty of the task by 3D where 1D penalty is for the Zero G work, 1D penalty is for the gloves, and 1D penalty for losing the help of the people standing around you."
That makes the task 8D. Jez must throw 8D for 9 or less, which is less than a 1% shot (it's about a one in 1,000,000 chance!).
But...Jez has a 12.8% chance of rolling Spectacular Success!!!!
Therefore, Jez's best option is to make the task has hard as possible so that the Ref will increase difficulty and increase the chance of Spectacular Success occurring!
See how truly messed up this rule is?
EDIT: What to see something even more crazy? Change Jez's EDU to EDU-5 and raise his skill to Explosives-4 (for the same target number of 9). Now, the TIH rule does not apply, so Jez can make the task rolling 4D for 9 or less. That's a 10% chance of success.
Jez IS STILL better off making the task an 8D Beyond Impossible difficulty, as his chance of success is HIGHER! 12.8%!!!
He quoted another poster (well, he didn't know to quote them, but he basically wrote me the same words in response).
Supplement Four
SOC-14 5K
What are "Spectacular Tasks"? I don't see that defined in the T5 rulebook.
And, what about a character having a higher chance of success on an 8D Beyond Impossible task than he does on a 3D Difficult task?
You know, a character with Skill-2, Stat-4 is better off rolling a an 8D task than he is a 3D task.
I know how I would answer this... but let me ask Marc...
And Marc didn't say spectacular tasks, Original Carl did. Marc actually used the phrase "I disallowed SS/SF on 2D or less".
Supplement Four
SOC-14 5K
Don't attack the example. Use what ever example you like. The point about the rule remains, though.
Ackehece
SOC-13
add me to the list that this is not messed up.
Original_Carl
SOC-12
When I used spectacular task, I was using it as an analog for Difficult or harder tasks. So much for economy of words.
By-Design. Not a bug. We've covered this already.
Again, by design. The harder the task, the more likely that if you succeed, it will be a spectacular success.
There is nothing wrong with this rule. It's designed to bring more drama and tension to the roleplaying experience. Escalating the chance of spectacular success along with the difficulty of the task is how the system helps to facilitate that.
Repairing a broken engine? Normal. Same engine without a full tool kit? Difficult. While in a vacc suit? Formidable. While also under fire? Staggering. Outside the ship traveling at 3Gs? Hopeless. Without the necessary parts? Impossible.
If you succeed at a task like that, it's very likely your success is spectacular. And likewise if you fail.
This is also important if your character doesn't have a C+S that make such an impossible task thinkable. Why? Because it's these kind of moments, hanging off the side of a moving starship attempting to fix a jump drive with a hammer while being shot at, that make for those jump up and down moments that people talk about for years when the subject of best RPG memories come up. For the unskilled ex-Marine trying to fix the drive, if she succeeds it will very likely be spectacular. And it should be. Same goes for failure.
If I have even one beyond impossible task in my entire campaign I'll be sure to post it to this forum. If you're seeing one or more than one per session, I'd be very curious to read a play log from one of your game sessions.
One more thing before I go. Beyond Impossible tasks aren't "extremely hard" -- they are by definition "beyond impossible". If I were to choose an analog for extremely hard, it would be Staggering.
By-Design. Not a bug. We've covered this already.
Again, by design. The harder the task, the more likely that if you succeed, it will be a spectacular success.
There is nothing wrong with this rule. It's designed to bring more drama and tension to the roleplaying experience. Escalating the chance of spectacular success along with the difficulty of the task is how the system helps to facilitate that.
Repairing a broken engine? Normal. Same engine without a full tool kit? Difficult. While in a vacc suit? Formidable. While also under fire? Staggering. Outside the ship traveling at 3Gs? Hopeless. Without the necessary parts? Impossible.
If you succeed at a task like that, it's very likely your success is spectacular. And likewise if you fail.
This is also important if your character doesn't have a C+S that make such an impossible task thinkable. Why? Because it's these kind of moments, hanging off the side of a moving starship attempting to fix a jump drive with a hammer while being shot at, that make for those jump up and down moments that people talk about for years when the subject of best RPG memories come up. For the unskilled ex-Marine trying to fix the drive, if she succeeds it will very likely be spectacular. And it should be. Same goes for failure.
If I have even one beyond impossible task in my entire campaign I'll be sure to post it to this forum. If you're seeing one or more than one per session, I'd be very curious to read a play log from one of your game sessions.
One more thing before I go. Beyond Impossible tasks aren't "extremely hard" -- they are by definition "beyond impossible". If I were to choose an analog for extremely hard, it would be Staggering.
If this is the concept behind "Spectacular", then I guess the issue is one of terminology. What S4 and others have been discussing would be more properly termed "Critical" or "Special" Success (as the 5% of skill-level rule in Runequest, or natural 1 on D20 in D&D), but "Spectacular" Success would be a different concept entirely (primarily a cinematic device).
(Although it seems to me that "Spectacular" Failure and "Critical" or "Special" Failure would still be overlapping concepts. "Spectacular" would only be different from "Critical" or "Special" as it regards a Success outcome).
What it might mean is that S4's "fix" might be useable (or could be modified to be useable) alongside Spectacular Success, albeit as an entirely different concept.
EDIT: i.e. One would be skill-based, the other would be task (i.e. plot) based.
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Supplement Four
SOC-14 5K
OK. Well, any T5 character has a 12.8% chance of succeeding a Beyond Impossible task.
Is better than one-in-ten what you would call "beyond impossible"?
Hmm...
So the fact that Joe Traveller 788779 Computer-2 has a better chance of making a Beyond Impossible task (12.8%) than a Difficult task (10%) doesn't bother Marc, huh?
That's amazing.
Help me understand why that's acceptable.
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Yes, it doesn't look right if the Spectacular Success chances increase with difficulty by 3-4% intervals per added die. My calculations show this is happening because of the geometrically increasing possible combinations of dice-rolls that can generate 3 1's (or, with equal probability, 3 6's.)
Maybe there is some improvement if you say you can't count a Spectacular Success unless the roll has already achieved a simple success, with reference to the character's C+S+K score. So if a character has a characteristic C=7, a Skill of 3 and an associated Knowledge of 1, and needs to roll 11 on 5D, you can count the 3 1's rolls as Spectacular only if the total roll is 11 or less. So 3 1's won't count if the other two dice total more than 8. On a 7D roll, the chances really drop that 11 will work, and so this cuts out a lot of the 3 1's combinations.
Exactly how many chances drop out may be easy to figure out. If you take out 3 1's, the remaining 4 dice must roll 8 or less (whether or not some extra 1's occur) and the simple chance of that is already given in the dice tables: the chances of 8 or less on the remaining 4 dice is only about 5%, so if we use this rule, Spectacular Success for a target of 11 drops to a manageable 9.357%*5% = 0.46% or so.
Looking at things, since 11 on 7D is <1% chance already, it means any success has a strong chance of being a Spectacular Success. That doesn't look right unless you like a game with "cinematic" outcomes.
Likewise, a Spectacular Failure won't count unless the total roll is already a simple failure: more than the target. That will cut down chances at both ends but especially in the Successes.
But a principle was mentioned in the rules that the occurrence is INDEPENDENT of skill level. So I am left perplexed. The rule could have benefitted from intense statistical analysis.
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Supplement Four
SOC-14 5K
That's actually a good idea. I think that's a better fix than my idea for the T5 task system.
One problem I see is that I believe that Spectacular Success should allow that one-in-a-million chance for any roll. It may be an Impossible task, for all practical purposes, but this is a slight glimmer of hope that SS can be thrown.
Another idea--
Increase the number of ones that are needed for SS to occur. We'd need to look at some math to find the right number, but off the top of my head, what about one less in number than the number of dice thrown?
SS on 3D Difficulty requires two ones.
SS on 4D Difficulty requires three ones.
SS on 5D Difficulty requires four ones.
And so on.
How do you think that would work?
I don't think SF needs to be tweaked. It works fine as-is.
The numbers work out to this (counting all rolls whether conventionally successful or not):
2 1's on 3D: 16/216 = 7.407%
3 1's on 4D: 21/1,296 = 1.620%
4 1's on 5D: 26/7,776 = 0.334%
5 1's on 6D: 31/46,656 = 0.0664%
6 1's on 7D: 36/279,936 = 0.0128%
7 1's on 8D: 41/1,679,616 = 0.00244%
I had worked out the 3 out of 4D case in a previous message. The problem is that only 1 die is allowed to be not-1 (so 5 possible rolls), and this not-1 die can occupy a number of positions equal to the number of dice, so total (5xD), and add one single case of all dice being 1's. The numerator goes up linearly, but the denominator increases by a factor of 6 each time.
Whatever system you choose for Spectacular Successes needs a careful numerical analysis.
