Supplement Four
SOC-14 5K
Yes, T5 should consider something akin to what I did with the UGM.
To quote from a page from those rules (see the link in my sig):
Spectacular Failure is broken
- Thread starter mvdwege
- Start date
Yes, T5 should consider something akin to what I did with the UGM.
To quote from a page from those rules (see the link in my sig):
I don't have a problem with the system as is, except for the situation where the character chooses to make it harder only to get a higher chance of spectacular.
So, my solution would be roll one of the dice using a different colored die for any case where the character changed the odds by adding or subtracting a die.
Have the "character chooses harder" die not count for spectacular successes, and the "character chooses safer" die count for spectacular failures. (The safer/failure case actually requires the extra die, but only for purposes of SSs.)
For example, Joe rolls against a 4D task, and rolls an extra die to make things more difficult. Then have that extra die be another color, and it doesn't count as a SS, but DOES count towards SF.
For cases where a die is removed to make the task easier, have the off-colored die rolled anyhow, but it only counts if it is a 6, and then only towards SF.
It doesn't solve the problem of whether it's fair to have higher difficulty tasks have higher odds of spectacular changes.
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Now, to the math. Or, logic, actually. For those who doubt the odds go up, use a reduction ad absurdum* argument: What are the odds of spectacular success with 1000 dice being rolled? Darned near 100%. Same with fails. (SI actually overcomes both SS and SF, making the outcome nearly certain to be spectacularly interesting. But, that's not the point of this argument.)
*Latin for Reduce to absurdity. It's a technique for quickly determining whether a logical argument is not valid. For instance, someone says "This die is unfair. It never rolls a 20!" We all know it's just hyperbole, but in case the person actually believes it (yes, I do know one guy who treats all his dice as having a mind of their own), all we have to do is roll it 10,000 times and see if any 20s come up. I'm betting it won't take quite that many.
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To the combinatorics guy, I think you're right on the sub-field of math. However, isn't the "3 1s in 4 dice" probability 11 of 1296, not 21 of 1296?
As food for thought:
What if instead of ALL 1's for a Spectacular Success, it was ALL DICE-SHOWING THE SAME # (except 6's). (i.e. All 1's, all 2's, all 3's, all 4's, or all 5's).
The probability for Spectacular Success (for Average/2D) would then be 5/36 (13.8%), for Difficult/3D would be 5/216 (2.3%), for Formidable/4D would be 5/1296 (0.4%), etc. This still would not solve the issue of relating Spectacular Success/Failure to Skill and Ability (as it is still based solely on the task difficulty level), and the Spectacular Success rate would still go down with increasing difficulty, but it does increase the odds somewhat for attaining spectacular success.
Perhaps it could be combined in some way with Robject's idea of dice-capping:
Just some thoughts.
With 4 dice, you can have all 4 dice turn up 1. Since it has at least 3 dice that are 1, that's a Spectacular Success. There's only one way to get 4 1's; the odds are 1/1296.
But the other case is 3 dice and only 3 dice turning up 1. There are actually 4 ways to do that, since the die that is NOT 1 can turn up in 4 different positions. In each of those positions, the non-1 die can roll anything from 2-6 (5 rolls). 4*5=20 ways.
Add to the 4 1's case above, the total chance of getting a Spectacular Success on 4 dice is 21/1296.
With more dice, you have take each number of dice where 3 dice or more than 3 turn up 1, and for each number of dice turning up 1, the number of combinations of their positions, and how the rest of the dice roll (a 5^x term). The reasoning is airtight; I was just concerned about arithmetic errors.
Also since you are asking the math to figure out only 3 1's or 3 6's, you accidentally include Spectacularly Interesting rolls with 6 dice or more. These intersect both the Spectacular Successes and Spectacular Failures. So I calculate the probability of these separately and make sure to subtract this number from the Spectacular Success (or equally likely Spectacular Failure) figures I calculated first.
Supplement Four
SOC-14 5K
It's not errata. It's a design flaw with the mechanic. T5's Spectacular Success (Three Ones) gets easier and easier to achieve the harder a task gets, where Spectacular Success is not even possible on the easiest of tasks.
To many's way of thinking, that's backward.
I can't do something perfectly on a task that I find extremely easy to complete, but I've got a HUGE chance of achieving Spectacular Success on an extremely hard task?
The OP says "Spectacular Failure", but I think he's referring to Spectacular Success.
Spectacular Failure (Three Sixes) is logical--Spectacular Failure gets easier to achieve the harder a task gets and is not possible on the easiest of tasks.
It makes sense that I canno royally screw up an extremely easy task, and it makes sense that, the harder a task becomes, the bigger the chance that I will FUBAR it.
Supplement Four
SOC-14 5K
A Logic Example
- The Situation -
A character is chasing a bad guy. Both are driving ground cars on a TL 9 world. And, the chase is taking place of a fairly busy two-lane road. Both cars are swinging in and out of traffic at high speed, sometimes moving onto the road's shoulder, sometimes moving into the lane of oncoming traffic, to pass NPC driven cars as the chase progresses.
The task in question is for the character to pass the vehicle in front of him in order to get closer to his quarry, and the player has chosen to risk darting into the lane of oncoming traffic for a moment to gain some ground on his character's prey.
If the character fails to make the check, then he is never able to swoop out of his lane and pass the car in front of him..
If the character succeeds on the check, then the character makes it safely back into his own lane having jumped ahead of the vehicle that was in front of him.
If the character fails with Spectacular Failure, then the character loses control and crashes.
If the character succeeds with Spectacular Success, the character is able to split traffic, drive up the dotted line as if he were on a motorcycle, and jump back into his own lane right behind the NPC bad guy.
- The Problem With T5 -
The way T5 is written, Spectacular Failure (losing control and crashing) is not even possible if the Ref says that the task to change lanes is an Easy or Average Task.
OK, I can see that argument, but not the next one...
Also, Spectacular Success (splitting the traffic line, driving down the center, avoiding all cars, and getting right behind the fleeing enemy NPC bad guy) is not possible either if the task is Easy or Average.
SS should be especially possible when the task is easier.
If the task is easier, it probably means that it is easier for the character to avoid oncoming cars and get behind the bad guy. Yet, T5 mechanics do not allow for this.
- More non-logic with the T5 rule -
Spectacular Success is possible for the character if the task is a bit harder. If the task is Difficult or harder than that, then the character can complete the task in a Spectacular fashion.
In addition, the harder the task gets, the more likely Spectacular Success will be achieved.
So, if it's rush hour, and the opposing lane is packed with car after car, the character actually has a greater chance of achieving Spectacular Success than if there were only a few cars in the opposing lane.
- The Situation -
A character is chasing a bad guy. Both are driving ground cars on a TL 9 world. And, the chase is taking place of a fairly busy two-lane road. Both cars are swinging in and out of traffic at high speed, sometimes moving onto the road's shoulder, sometimes moving into the lane of oncoming traffic, to pass NPC driven cars as the chase progresses.
The task in question is for the character to pass the vehicle in front of him in order to get closer to his quarry, and the player has chosen to risk darting into the lane of oncoming traffic for a moment to gain some ground on his character's prey.
If the character fails to make the check, then he is never able to swoop out of his lane and pass the car in front of him..
If the character succeeds on the check, then the character makes it safely back into his own lane having jumped ahead of the vehicle that was in front of him.
If the character fails with Spectacular Failure, then the character loses control and crashes.
If the character succeeds with Spectacular Success, the character is able to split traffic, drive up the dotted line as if he were on a motorcycle, and jump back into his own lane right behind the NPC bad guy.
- The Problem With T5 -
The way T5 is written, Spectacular Failure (losing control and crashing) is not even possible if the Ref says that the task to change lanes is an Easy or Average Task.
OK, I can see that argument, but not the next one...
Also, Spectacular Success (splitting the traffic line, driving down the center, avoiding all cars, and getting right behind the fleeing enemy NPC bad guy) is not possible either if the task is Easy or Average.
SS should be especially possible when the task is easier.
If the task is easier, it probably means that it is easier for the character to avoid oncoming cars and get behind the bad guy. Yet, T5 mechanics do not allow for this.
- More non-logic with the T5 rule -
Spectacular Success is possible for the character if the task is a bit harder. If the task is Difficult or harder than that, then the character can complete the task in a Spectacular fashion.
In addition, the harder the task gets, the more likely Spectacular Success will be achieved.
So, if it's rush hour, and the opposing lane is packed with car after car, the character actually has a greater chance of achieving Spectacular Success than if there were only a few cars in the opposing lane.
Huh? I thought this was fixed already?
Spectacular success is when all dice are "1s", or 3 or more dice are "1s" if 4 or more dice are rolled...
Spectacular failure is when all dice are "6s", or 3 or more dice are "6s" if 4 or more dice are rolled...
[Pause -- does that make sense to everyone? It did to me, but I'm not everyone...]
Nuts. It's not in the errata. I know Marc told me this. Let me get his confirmation, and see if he sync'ed it with the rest of the rules.
Spectacular success is when all dice are "1s", or 3 or more dice are "1s" if 4 or more dice are rolled...
Spectacular failure is when all dice are "6s", or 3 or more dice are "6s" if 4 or more dice are rolled...
[Pause -- does that make sense to everyone? It did to me, but I'm not everyone...]
Nuts. It's not in the errata. I know Marc told me this. Let me get his confirmation, and see if he sync'ed it with the rest of the rules.
Supplement Four
SOC-14 5K
That sounds good on paper, but on closer inspection, it's not really a good mechanical choice.
You still have the logic problem I posed above--
And, even if you don't buy the argument that it's not logical to allow Spectacular Success on Difficult and harder tasks but not on Easy or Average tasks, look at the chance of rolling SS.
From T5's charts...
Using the new rule you cite above, the chance of rolling SS is so low, why even have it in the game? The chances are so low that it's more probable that players will run entire campaigns and never see an SS occur.
It's a less than 1% chance that all 1's will be thrown on each dice, starting at 4D difficulty (starting at 3D difficulty, too!).
If you work out the actual chance, you'll quickly see that probability drops lower than 0.001% real quick.
That's really means there's no chance of occuring. You might as well take SS and SF out of the game.
And, above, you say that SS or SF is only possible with 4D or harder tasks?
Remember that most of the game is played where difficulty is in the Average to Difficult range. Here, you're only allowing SS or SF when tasks are Formidable or harder.
I don't really think going with all ones or all sixes is the answer the game needs. This doesn't really fix the problem. It just opens up new problems.
Supplement Four
SOC-14 5K
@DonM
Don,
Back when T4 was released, I spotted flaws in that task system as well. And, I re-worked T4's task system so that it wouldn't have the flaws I identified.
You can view that task system HERE, on Zeitlin's Freelance Traveller page. I called that task system KB 2.0.
Since the task systems in T4 and T5 are very similar, I can show you how I conquered the problem with T4's system. Maybe this, or something close to it is the answer for fixing this problem with T5.
Click on the link above to see how I dealt with Spectacular Failure. But, for Spectacular Success, here's what what I did....
Note that the numbers I provide in KB2.0 are a lot more desirable for the game--better than what the current T5 tweak you cite above and better than the original rule.
I suggest that something like this be created for T5.
Note that KB2.0 will not fit plug-n-play with T5, though. For one reason, T5 seem to have higher skill codes than T4 characters. If that's true, adjustements to the rule I suggest above will need to be made in order to make that particular idea fit T5.
Of my version of Spectacular Success in KB2.0, I also say this about SS....
Don,
Back when T4 was released, I spotted flaws in that task system as well. And, I re-worked T4's task system so that it wouldn't have the flaws I identified.
You can view that task system HERE, on Zeitlin's Freelance Traveller page. I called that task system KB 2.0.
Since the task systems in T4 and T5 are very similar, I can show you how I conquered the problem with T4's system. Maybe this, or something close to it is the answer for fixing this problem with T5.
Click on the link above to see how I dealt with Spectacular Failure. But, for Spectacular Success, here's what what I did....
Note that the numbers I provide in KB2.0 are a lot more desirable for the game--better than what the current T5 tweak you cite above and better than the original rule.
I suggest that something like this be created for T5.
Note that KB2.0 will not fit plug-n-play with T5, though. For one reason, T5 seem to have higher skill codes than T4 characters. If that's true, adjustements to the rule I suggest above will need to be made in order to make that particular idea fit T5.
Of my version of Spectacular Success in KB2.0, I also say this about SS....
Sorry, but T5's task system will remain roll under or equal to skill + characteristic, number of dice = difficulty.
That's easy and intuitive. Before I dumped that, I'd dump Spectacular Anything.
And honestly, if your target number is greater than six and you're only rolling 1D, and the player rolls a six, I'm not sure I'm going to throw Spectacular Failure at the player. I'm definitely likely to call a one rolled on a 1D throw a Spectacular Success though. But that's just how I dice my games.
But I'm still not seeing how Marc's simple fix doesn't answer the problem.
That's easy and intuitive. Before I dumped that, I'd dump Spectacular Anything.
And honestly, if your target number is greater than six and you're only rolling 1D, and the player rolls a six, I'm not sure I'm going to throw Spectacular Failure at the player. I'm definitely likely to call a one rolled on a 1D throw a Spectacular Success though. But that's just how I dice my games.
But I'm still not seeing how Marc's simple fix doesn't answer the problem.
Supplement Four
SOC-14 5K
It doesn't look like you read what I said above because I didn't suggest changing the T5 task system at all. It remains the same.
What I suggested changing was the way Spectacular Success is computed.
With three ones, or all ones, the T5 system has problems, as I cite above.
My suggestion is to change SS to a number or less on the task throw.
An SS would be thrown anytime the result on the dice is equal to or less than the Die Code + Skill level.
Thus, if you've got DEX-7 Pilot-2, you would throw SS anytime the result of your dice is equal to or less than 2 + Dice Code of the Difficulty.
Thus, if the DEX-7 Pilot-2 character throws an Average Piloting Task, the character would succeed on the task by throwing 9 or less.
But, the character would throw Spectacular Success if the result is 4 or less.
Another example:
A character with Broker-4 and INT-5 throws a Difficult task.
That's 3D for 9 or less, right?
SS is rolled if he result is 7 or less.
That's a 38% chance of success, and a 16% chance of Spectacular Success.
You see....with this method, Spectacular Success is tied to the character's skill. The more skilled he is, the better chance he has at achieving SS.
Take that same character, but lower his skill. Broker-0 and INT-5, throwing a Difficult task.
That's 3D for 5 or less.
SS is thrown if 3 or less is thrown (three ones).
That's a 5% chance for success and a less than 1% chance of Spectacular Success.
Because that fix has a 0% chance of ever happening, for all practical purposes.
Original_Carl
SOC-12
I disagree. This is not a design flaw, and I like the way it is now.
No disrespect intended to anyone with an opinion on this in opposition to my own, I just want to make sure I get my vote in. I'll explain my position.
Spectacular success or failure can only occur in spectacular tasks. Easy and normal tasks don't merit spectacular success or failure. I think that's a design feature. In my own experience, this speeds play and reduces pedantry.
I'd prefer we not errata this.
Seconded!
Thanks, Carl, I totally agree with your points and add my vote to leave things as they are.
Hmmm. Maybe a simple fix is to require more dice be the spectacular number. Perhaps 3 + half the remainder. So, with a 3 or 4 die task, you need 3 1s or 3 6s. For a 5 or 6 die task, spectacular doesn't happen unless you have 4 1s or 4 6s.
Now, because this solution is linear and the main problem is exponential, there might be some more theatrics that can occur at maybe 10 dice or more (I don't feel like doing the math at 1:30 AM). And technically, one does get a better chance of SS even still. But, that chance is pretty darned small, and stays that way until you get to really REALLY hard tasks.
Now, because this solution is linear and the main problem is exponential, there might be some more theatrics that can occur at maybe 10 dice or more (I don't feel like doing the math at 1:30 AM). And technically, one does get a better chance of SS even still. But, that chance is pretty darned small, and stays that way until you get to really REALLY hard tasks.
Original_Carl
SOC-12
I read your example and, not to belabor my own position here, but I'd like to use your scenario as a discussion point.
The scenario you've described at this point is at least Difficult if you think there's a chance of the vehicle crashing upon loss of control or failing the maneuver. If you did rule it an easy or average task, then there shouldn't be a chance of crashing. Maybe they just lose the vehicle they're pursuing in traffic.
Another line of thought I had reading the quote above is that maybe crashing itself isn't that spectacular in an easy or average task. Maybe they spin out on the road siding. Maybe they collide with another car and there are no injuries resulting. The specifics don't matter. The meta concepts the rules are attempting to express are solid.
I think maybe you're misunderstanding the task system.
I'd just say it's even more difficult than a plain ol' high speed pursuit. If it's a gridlock, I would consider high speed pursuit of another vehicle almost impossible. Thereby making the possibility of any success being a spectacular success more likely.
This still looks like by-design to me.
The scenario you've described at this point is at least Difficult if you think there's a chance of the vehicle crashing upon loss of control or failing the maneuver. If you did rule it an easy or average task, then there shouldn't be a chance of crashing. Maybe they just lose the vehicle they're pursuing in traffic.
Another line of thought I had reading the quote above is that maybe crashing itself isn't that spectacular in an easy or average task. Maybe they spin out on the road siding. Maybe they collide with another car and there are no injuries resulting. The specifics don't matter. The meta concepts the rules are attempting to express are solid.
I think maybe you're misunderstanding the task system.
I'd just say it's even more difficult than a plain ol' high speed pursuit. If it's a gridlock, I would consider high speed pursuit of another vehicle almost impossible. Thereby making the possibility of any success being a spectacular success more likely.
This still looks like by-design to me.
Supplement Four
SOC-14 5K
Look, I don't play T5, so I don't really care. I was just trying to be helpul and provide a solution to a problem.
But...
Here's something for you to consider...
If T5 uses what Don says above: SS occurs only on 4D or harder tasks, and occurs when all ones are thrown, then look at these numbers.
Chance of SS on a task
0.0772% on 4D tasks
0.0129% on 5D tasks
0.0021% on 6D tasks
0.0004% on 7D tasks
In other words, SS will happen in 1 out of every 1000 throws on 5D tasks!
How many 5D tasks are made in a game? Three? Four? Let's go on the high end and say four 5D tasks happen on average, every game.
That means players will have to play 250 game sessions to see an SS on a 5D task throw. If they play every two weeks, then they'll see an SS ever TWO AND A HALF YEARS!
Now, it will happen more often on the total of 4D+ tasks that happen in a game, but, really, how many 4D+ task rolls do you have in a game?
See what I'm getting at?
Most 2D games have SS when Snake-eyes or Boxcars are thrown. That's a 2.7% chance.
With a d20 based game, usually a 20 is SS. That's a 5% chance.
In Percentile based games, 5% is not uncommon.
With Marc's fix, the best chance at SS is 0.07%! That means, on average, 1428 4D throws will have to be made in order to see a Spectacular Success!
You don't see that problem?
You are hardly ever going to see SS happen in the game!
According to what Don says above, SS and SF can only happen on Formidable, Staggering, Hopeless, Impossible, and Beyond Impossible tasks.
SS and SF cannot happen on Easy, Average, or Difficult tasks.
Which means--because so many dice are being thrown--SS and SF really do not factor into the game at all. For all practical purposes, the number of times SS or SF will occur in the game is zero.
But...
Here's something for you to consider...
If T5 uses what Don says above: SS occurs only on 4D or harder tasks, and occurs when all ones are thrown, then look at these numbers.
Chance of SS on a task
0.0772% on 4D tasks
0.0129% on 5D tasks
0.0021% on 6D tasks
0.0004% on 7D tasks
In other words, SS will happen in 1 out of every 1000 throws on 5D tasks!
How many 5D tasks are made in a game? Three? Four? Let's go on the high end and say four 5D tasks happen on average, every game.
That means players will have to play 250 game sessions to see an SS on a 5D task throw. If they play every two weeks, then they'll see an SS ever TWO AND A HALF YEARS!
Now, it will happen more often on the total of 4D+ tasks that happen in a game, but, really, how many 4D+ task rolls do you have in a game?
See what I'm getting at?
Most 2D games have SS when Snake-eyes or Boxcars are thrown. That's a 2.7% chance.
With a d20 based game, usually a 20 is SS. That's a 5% chance.
In Percentile based games, 5% is not uncommon.
With Marc's fix, the best chance at SS is 0.07%! That means, on average, 1428 4D throws will have to be made in order to see a Spectacular Success!
You don't see that problem?
You are hardly ever going to see SS happen in the game!
According to what Don says above, SS and SF can only happen on Formidable, Staggering, Hopeless, Impossible, and Beyond Impossible tasks.
SS and SF cannot happen on Easy, Average, or Difficult tasks.
Which means--because so many dice are being thrown--SS and SF really do not factor into the game at all. For all practical purposes, the number of times SS or SF will occur in the game is zero.
Supplement Four
SOC-14 5K
I think the answer is to go with what I suggest above. You add a Spectacular Success number to the game.
SS = Skill + Difficulty
Your SS will occur on ANY task (not just on Formidable and harder tasks) when the result of the throw is equal to or less than the character's skill plus the die code of task difficulty.
Here's an example from the T5 book. What I propose would work like this...
OK, so the task is...
To retrieve the selected information
Difficult (3D)<(Computer + EDU)
SS means the search returns the planetary communications grid master system password.
So, Buzz is throwing 3D for 10 or less.
SS happens if the roll is 6 or less (Computer-3 plus 3D Difficulty).
Failure happens if the roll is 11-18.
Success happens if the roll is 7-10.
*Spectacular Success happens if the roll is 3-6
You roll the dice per T5 rules. The result tells you success/failure. It also tells you if SS occured.
That's how I'd fix the problem.
Original_Carl
SOC-12
I can appreciate that. I also encourage you to try out the T5 rules with a play group. You've done a lot of research on them, why not give them a spin?
I do and I'm going to keep a closer eye on my task difficulty assignments. I'm also going to think more about my working definition of "spectacular" for the purposes of my T5 game.
You raise some good points, and maybe spectacular success is too difficult to reach with the rules as written. This is going to require more play testing.
Oh boy!
Supplement Four
SOC-14 5K
Messed up. It's 1 in every 10,000 throws!!!!!!
