GT: Passenger flow question

[Hal]

Hello Folks,
In my Traveller Universe, the SPA under Arch-Duke Norris' authority, have authorized a starport upgrade for Ianic in Lunion's subsector. Currently, the starport is rated as a type E (Starport class I in GURPS) despite the fact that the tradeflow between two other high population worlds (one of which is Lunion) must pass through Ianic. Further add in the compliation that Ianic itself has a trade flow between its two hipop neighbors, and it becomes readily apparant that a starport E (Class I starport) is overwhelmed with demand it can't meet.

Question: would you as a GM treat the Starport construction crew of 200,000 (population 6 group) as being a separate entity - as if they were a planet that required special handling? Or would you just subsume the construction crew as part of the planetary Population of Ianic?

My initial "opinion" is to treat the construction crew as a separate entity. They need specialized goods from another world that can not be provided by the local population (due to the fact that Ianic is a World War II like technology base). Building a Highport at Ianic requires materials that Ianic would never dream of "ordering" for itself.

The problem lies with the fact that the transports bringing in materials to Ianic will not be outbound with anything in their holds. If they are outbound with a partially or even full hold - they are taking business away from the freighters already there.

I'd almost think that any ship bringing in cargo for the highport construction might charge Higher costs for bringing in materials - so as to cover the nearly empty cargo holds on the return journey. Otherwise, anyone bringing in materials soon operates at a loss.

Comments?

 

[The Oz]

What about having the ships bringing in the supplies for the port construction being under charter?

 

[rancke]

Originally posted by Hal:
In my Traveller Universe, the SPA under Arch-Duke Norris' authority, have authorized a starport upgrade for Ianic in Lunion's subsector. Currently, the starport is rated as a type E (Starport class I in GURPS) despite the fact that the tradeflow between two other high population worlds (one of which is Lunion) must pass through Ianic.

Presumably almost all traffic between Adabicci and Lunion goes by dedicated jump-3 transports and liners. It would be cheaper than having jump-1 ships doing three jumps or having jump-2 ships do two jumps (very inefficient, that). It would also, of course, be faster. Hm... cheaper AND faster...

Any jump-2 traffic that did find itself bound from Adabicci to Lunion or vice versa would presumably prefer using Derchon as a intermediate stop. Higher population and better starport.

Further add in the compliation that Ianic itself has a trade flow between its two hipop neighbors, and it becomes readily apparant that a starport E (Class I starport) is overwhelmed with demand it can't meet.

Yes, Ianic's own trade would have to go through its starport, of course. By jump-1 to and from Adabicci and by jump-2 to and from Lunion. I'm not sure how much trade that would amount to. Since that trade is capped based on the lower trade number, the population of Adabicci and Lunion doesn't really matter (I'd guess, without checking my Far Trader, that Ianic's trade with Derchon would be bigger than its trade with Lunion )

Question: would you as a GM treat the Starport construction crew of 200,000 (population 6 group) as being a separate entity - as if they were a planet that required special handling? Or would you just subsume the construction crew as part of the planetary Population of Ianic?

I've never really believed in the notion that starports are build to a specific standard. Rather, I believe that natural market forces will provide a world with a suitable starport (that is, a starportadequate for its needs), which the Scouts then evaluate and fix a label on. Granted, there can be exceptional circumstances, usually when someone is prepared to pay a lot of money to subsidize something. It seems to me that if you need to have the SPA build a starship repair facility on Ianic, then it is because Ianic doesn't have enough traffic to support a starship repair shop. So you have to ask yourself, why would Archduke Norris (Or the Duchess of Mora or the Duke of Lunion or the Count of Adabicci?) want to encourage an increase of starship traffic to the extent of subsidizing it?

Next, I'm not sure just what it takes to build the infrastructure that differentiates a Class C/III starport from a Class E/I but would it really require 200,000 construction workers?

My initial "opinion" is to treat the construction crew as a separate entity. They need specialized goods from another world that can not be provided by the local population (due to the fact that Ianic is a World War II like technology base).

I agree. Whatever the size of the construction force, it will have to be brought in for the job and (presumably) returned to where they came from when the job was done.

The problem lies with the fact that the transports bringing in materials to Ianic will not be outbound with anything in their holds. If they are outbound with a partially or even full hold - they are taking business away from the freighters already there.

I'd almost think that any ship bringing in cargo for the highport construction might charge Higher costs for bringing in materials - so as to cover the nearly empty cargo holds on the return journey. Otherwise, anyone bringing in materials soon operates at a loss.

I think the transports would be operating under charter from the SPA. It is also possible that the SPA can get one of the various navies to provide transport. They are, after all, working for the same boss.


Hans

 

[Anthony]

Checking the output of my mapping software:

Cyan line (BTN 11 main), J3 direct
Green line (BTN 10 main) through Derchon. Not sure what's triggering that, probably trade to Derchon.
Nothing through Ianic.

 

[notagoodusername]

What software is this Anthony?

Shane

 

[Anthony]

The one used to generate the maps on my website.

http://maps.travellercentral.com/

 

[Whipsnade]

rancke wrote:

"(Or the Duchess of Mora or the Duke of Lunion or the Count of Adabicci?)"


Mr. Rancke-Madsen,

Adabicci has a Count? (I ask as I gleefully update my canonical nobles list!)

"I think the transports would be operating under charter from the SPA. It is also possible that the SPA can get one of the various navies to provide transport. They are, after all, working for the same boss."

Just as some of the civil engineering tasks could be handled by combat engineering units on loan from the subsector's Unified Army. These 'sappers' and/or 'seabees' could tackle much of the prep work prior to the actual construction taking place; stuff like land clearance, grading, excavating, dirt and fill sifting, fencing, building temporary housing, constructing temporary cargo pads and landing fields, laying out temporary services (water, sanitation, power, etc.), the road network, setting up the machine shops and equipment parks necessary, and so forth.

Most of this work would be very similar to the LZ, encampment, and fighting position work they are tasked to provide during combat operations. Prepping the area for a starport upgrade would make for a nice field exercise and save which ever noble(s) is/are footing the bill a tidy sum.

IMTU, nobles 'poach' UA civil engineering and service units for various 'field exercises' all the time. After all, those units are 'just standing around doing nothing'.


Sincerely,
Larsen

 

[Hal]

Valid points have been raised throughout - and one I will address point black regards to the ships going through Ianic.

First assumption:
via FAR TRADER, it states that a certain amount of the trade will be regularly schedule shipping lines. The remainder as shown in the daily shipping column is the stuff left over for the free traders. Based on that, I have to agree that the Bulk of the traffic is going to be J-3 stuff. The remainder however, is STILLhefty. That traffic is unlikely to have too many J2 ships primarily because each Jump 1 that a J2 ship makes cuts into its profit margin badly. The slower J1 ships however are still operating at the normal levels of profitability. That is why I'm making the assumptions I am about the free trader traffic being between 15 and 26 ships. These ships are not going to be J-3 ships, but "tramp freighters". Otherwise? All of the ships will be higher J valued ships...

Someone pointed out that the trade volume between Ianic and its neighbors is limited by its own WTN. Ianic's WTN is 3.0 - and I had forgotten about the capping of a BTN as being the lower of two trade partners plus some value. Gonna have to re-examine my presumptions there

As for the two comments about transports: chartering a ship as well as using Imperial Naval resources? Gentlemen? Thank you for pointing out something that should have been obvious at the outset

The sum is greater than the whole of its parts in this case.

 

[Anthony]

Originally posted by Hal:
Based on that, I have to agree that the Bulk of the traffic is going to be J-3 stuff. The remainder however, is STILLhefty. That traffic is unlikely to have too many J2 ships primarily because each Jump 1 that a J2 ship makes cuts into its profit margin badly. The slower J1 ships however are still operating at the normal levels of profitability.

Which is negative on routes above 1 parsec. You'll probably see a significant number of J3 far traders.

 

[Hal]

Originally posted by Anthony:
Which is negative on routes above 1 parsec. You'll probably see a significant number of J3 far traders.

Chances are good that this is indeed the more "logical" route to take. The big boys are Large scheduled freighters over 1,000 dtons, while the left overs are taken up by J-3 ships specially built for this Lunion/Adabicci "Market". Problem is, a tramp freighter Beowulf isn't going to be able to get any business based on the fact that J-3 ships will get all the business between Lunion and Adabicci. That being the case, Jim Mclean and Christopher Thrash and Steve Daniels should have emplaced a modifier regards "bidding on long distance" cargos where other ships have the advantage. Lets compare a J-3 200 dton ship versus a J-1 200 dton ship. Take the J-3 200 dton ship and fill it the same way you'd fill a J-1 ship (ie 10 staterooms etc) and exclude the fuel purifiers. I get (using Thomas Bont's shipbuilding program) a cost of 44.5 Mcr carrying 35 dtons of cargo. Contrast this with a Beowulf's 28.9 Mcr plus 68 dtons of cargo space.
In order to carry the 1,000 to 5,000 dtons (call it an average of 3,000 between the two extremes) of daily freight between the two worlds, we'd need to use some 85+ craft.
Granted, we'd get economy of scale by using larger ships - but the cargo carried by the freight lines are already "economy of scale" shipping that account for all of the rest of the freight being shipped. By inference, the "tramp freighter" market has to be filled by the less efficient designs.

I went back and checked to see what the BTN would be after taking into account factors that I had overlooked initially for FAR TRADER.

Ianic/Adabicci - BTN = 3 + 5.5 + 0 - 0 = 8.5
Ianic/Lunion - BTN = 3 + 6.0 + 0 -.5 = 8.5

In either case, BTN for trade may not exceed 5 higher than the lowest partner. BTN for trade to either of Lunion or Adabicci from Ianic will be 8. Freight tonnage per day will be 10 to 50 dtons (average of 30) daily. Trade can be handled between Ianic and any of her trade partners by 2 suliman scouts per day both ways.

One can easily "argue" my assumptions the other way - that the bulk of all left over freight is carried by J-3 ships. This means that a Jump-1 ship can not even compete in that market - ever. If that is the case, then Ianic will never see a "single" ship coming through carrying trade between Lunion to Adabicci. This invalidates the assumptions posed by GURPS STARPORTS entirely.

 

[Hal]

Mulling it over, here are a few thoughts I've had on the issue:

GURPS FAR TRADER discusses on page 23:

"The average volume of trade that is not already committed to shipping lines, and is thus available to tramp ships, can be determined by consulting the last column of the table under interpret the results (p. 16)..."


What this implies to me is that there are two kinds of ships the brokers rely upon. The first is the "reliable scheduled service" that the brokers send 93% of all available shipping to. These are the ships that have a reasonably predictable schedule to work off of.
The other 7% are the ones who are not on any kind of schedule that the shippers can rely upon.

This further implies then, that J-3 ships, which are unprofitable outside of this specialized market, must remain within the market's domain to remain financially solvent. By inference, a J-3 ship that works within a specialized J-3 environment are already considered to be part of the "reliable scheduled services". The J-3 independents will still jump as often as they can, making as much income as they can, and take the anual scheduled maintenance that is required of them by Imperial law. In short? Reliable.

Having said that, what it boils down to for the irregular timed ships, is that they get the "left-overs" - some 7% of the yearly available shipping that for some reason never quite makes it into the standard shipping holds.

If that is the case? The remaining ships would likely be visiting J-1 ships passing through, or visiting J-2 ships passing through. If a ship makes an effort to become part of the "trade route" or "market" - such a person essentially is becoming a regularly scheduled ship that brokers will eventually come to rely upon if, and only if the following is true:

The person charges about the same for their services as everyone else does. If they charge too much, they price themselves out of the market.

So how can this happen? Why would a shipper be willing to ship his stuff via a slow moving J-1 ship when he should be able to use J-3 ships? The clue lies in how GURPS FAR TRADER states that shippers who reserve hold space in advance, get discounts. Sure, a J-3 ship leaves every day. Unhappily for the shipping broker however, almost all the cargo space aboard the larger ships are already reserved by as much as 16 weeks in advance! Having a tramp freighter who can get your goods to market 3 parsecs away within 3 weeks beats any "reservation" one might have to wait for 6 or 12 or even 16 weeks for down the road.

This does raise the interesting question. If cargo shipments are scheduled some 16 weeks into the future - what happens when a ship accidentally fails to return (misjump, piracy, breakdown etc)? What happens if the ship were a 20,000 bulk freighter with 13,000 dtons of cargo space reserved that must now be met by the tramp freight market?

 

[Anthony]

Originally posted by Hal:
One can easily "argue" my assumptions the other way - that the bulk of all left over freight is carried by J-3 ships. This means that a Jump-1 ship can not even compete in that market - ever. If that is the case, then Ianic will never see a "single" ship coming through carrying trade between Lunion to Adabicci. This invalidates the assumptions posed by GURPS STARPORTS entirely.

There's another problem with the J1 ship:

The reason for using a free/far trader is that I have some slop freight which I need sent fairly quickly. However, the free trader will take 3-4 weeks longer to reach Adabicci than the J3 ship, at which point I might as well just book some space for a month from now on a major carrier...

 

[Hal]

Originally posted by Anthony:
</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by Hal:
One can easily "argue" my assumptions the other way - that the bulk of all left over freight is carried by J-3 ships. This means that a Jump-1 ship can not even compete in that market - ever. If that is the case, then Ianic will never see a "single" ship coming through carrying trade between Lunion to Adabicci. This invalidates the assumptions posed by GURPS STARPORTS entirely.

There's another problem with the J1 ship:

The reason for using a free/far trader is that I have some slop freight which I need sent fairly quickly. However, the free trader will take 3-4 weeks longer to reach Adabicci than the J3 ship, at which point I might as well just book some space for a month from now on a major carrier... </font>[/QUOTE]I think I've been looking at this from the wrong viewpoint (Ie, I think I've had an epiphany)

Lets look at it from a shipper's point of view in Adabicci. He's got a consignment that has to get to Lunion within 2 weeks. Unfortunately for him, all of the "regularly scheduled" lines have their cargo space booked 12 to 16 weeks in advance. He rings up a cargo broker and begs, pleads, cries, offers his first born - Anything. The shipping broker says "I'm sorry, if I could, I would get you some cargo space - especially since it will be a premium prices. Alas, I can't, there is NO space available - not for another 6 weeks.". This shipper doesn't bother to place his freight consignment on the Tramp Freighter market because his goods are worthless if it can't arrive on time. The shipper finds himself out of a job because he failed to get the cargo out in a timely enough fashion.
The next shipper from another company that walks into the office however, finds himself with a shipment that needs to arrive in Lunion within 3 weeks with a payment penalty of 1% for every day late. He too cries for mercy from the Shipping broker saying he NEEDS his shipment sent to Lunion NOW!. The shipping broker tells him that the next available slot that matches the shipper's needs will be open in 6 weeks. The shipper shakes his head sadly and realizes he's in a world of hurt. 6 weeks is 42 days plus the 10 it takes a J-3 ship to arrive there - 52 days for a shipment that needs to be there in 21. A total loss of 31% in penalties! He decides to check into the situation at the port for tramp freighters. He makes a request for bids on his shipment. Three captains tell him various prices that range from 760 Cr to 900 CR per parsec per dton for a 30 day delivery to Lunion. One captain says he can get it there for 700 Cr per parsec per dton. Alas, he too will need 30 days to deliver. The shipper takes the 700 Cr bid, and loads up the lot - sending it to the bidder's ship for loading. After all, 10 days late is only a 10% penalty in income.

That "tramp freighter" shipper isn't a service that the shipper wants to use. It is a service he had no choice BUT to use. All of the GOOD services are taken - there's nothing left.

The "flaw" here in the game mechanics if you will, is that you're permitting a Heavyweight boxer (so to speak) to compete in a bantam weight division if you allow a J-3 "tramp freighter" in this specialized market. In any other market where the advantages of a J-3 are non-existant, there wouldn't even be the issue of a Heavyweight in a bantam division.

In any event, given time, that new kid on the block with a J3 ship will become a line in his own right - fighting for survival against the big bulk freighters who offer services at 400 Cr per parsec per dton for a single jump.

Picture it this way:

Tukera has a primary line that sews up, along with three of its competetors - 93% of the shipping market. They don't bother building any extra hulls just now because they know how the "freight tramp market" is iffy. But they note that a new J3 ship on the block is sewing up with regularity - profits that are nearly 61% more than they are making per parsec per displacement ton. So Tukera builds another hull. That doesn't affect the "price series" just yet. Tukera finds their new "division" of endeavor is actually quite profitable - so they build two more hulls to take up the tramp freight business. NOW the price series is making the income per parsec per dton drop. Eventually, the tramp freighter market begins to choke up. Tukera's hulls are now making as much money as their primary lines are. Unfortunately, they've driven out of business the other J-3 ships that were independents. Tukera then consolidates their "tramp line" into the primary line - until the next cycle where the tramp freighter market grows back to 7% the world's business.

Does that make sense?

 

[Anthony]

Originally posted by Hal:
That "tramp freighter" shipper isn't a service that the shipper wants to use. It is a service he had no choice BUT to use. All of the GOOD services are taken - there's nothing left.

Agreed here.

The "flaw" here in the game mechanics if you will, is that you're permitting a Heavyweight boxer (so to speak) to compete in a bantam weight division if you allow a J-3 "tramp freighter" in this specialized market.

I don't see this at all. First of all, a J3 tramp actually has a variety of uses, particularly in this market. Notable J3 routes:
Abadicci-Sting-Gram (J1/J2 is very inferior)
Abadicci-Sting-Sacnoth (ditto)
Lunion-Resten-Skull-Equus-Rhylanor (ditto)
Lunion-Sharrip-Mercury-Catz-Mora (J2 is roughly equal)

Secondly, even if other J3 routes were not available, a tramp can exist on a single route.

 

[Hal]

Originally posted by Anthony:
Secondly, even if other J3 routes were not available, a tramp can exist on a single route.

Are you looking at the routes themselves or looking at the trade values and assuming that the J3 ship could survive on it? I originally thought that a J2 ship could not survive as a Tramp freighter between Lunion/Adabicci until I did an analysis on the presumption of 90% holds filled, 100% of its staterooms and freeze tubes filled. I used the Emperess Marava to check against and found that it could survive - as long as the income per dton didn't drop *that* much.

 

[Anthony]

Originally posted by Hal:
Are you looking at the routes themselves or looking at the trade values and assuming that the J3 ship could survive on it?

Looking at the routes, and requiring that the trade value be high enough to sensibly support freighters. Note that in the case of most of the routes I gave (all but Lunion-Mora), the J3 route is dramatically shorter than the J2 route; given the lack of competition from J2 ships, J3 ships can probably set slightly higher rates.

 

[rancke]

Originally posted by Larsen E. Whipsnade:
rancke wrote:

"(Or the Duchess of Mora or the Duke of Lunion or the Count of Adabicci?)"

Adabicci has a Count? (I ask as I gleefully update my canonical nobles list!)

That is just my guess. I did sneak[*] a mention of a Count of Tenalphi into GT:Sword Worlds, however .

[*] Not really sneak. I made sure to mention it to Jon. And, of course, it doesn't really prove anyting about Tenalphi. Historically, titles can be very misleading. Just because there is a Count of Tenalphi it doesn't follow that Tenalphi has a population .


Hans

 

[Whipsnade]

rancke wrote:

"That is just my guess. I did sneak[*] a mention of a Count of Tenalphi into GT:Sword Worlds, however ."


Mr. Rancke-Madsen,

Nifty! I'll add that Count to my list too. Anything to make Tenalphi even more of an oddity huh?

You mention 'guessing' that Adabicci has a count. Would you care to share your reasons for thinking a count belongs there? I would be very interested and I'm sure many others would be too.

You may have read my vague mutterings about counts at the TML this year. Aside from those counts who are heirs to higher titles and those counts who actually hold higher titles, some counts IMTU are responsible for the gaggle of 'little' worlds in each subsector. Not every world would rate a marquis, so those worlds are grouped together in a county under a count. A subsector may have 2 or 3 counties depending. IIRC, I used Trin as an example and sketched out 2 counties with ~5 worlds each.

I'd like to hear your ideas concerning counts however. I think they may be more in line with what LKW has written for GT:Nobles.


Sincerely,
Larsen

 

[Hal]

Originally posted by Anthony:
</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by Hal:
Are you looking at the routes themselves or looking at the trade values and assuming that the J3 ship could survive on it?

Looking at the routes, and requiring that the trade value be high enough to sensibly support freighters. Note that in the case of most of the routes I gave (all but Lunion-Mora), the J3 route is dramatically shorter than the J2 route; given the lack of competition from J2 ships, J3 ships can probably set slightly higher rates. </font>[/QUOTE]Hi Anthony,
Thanks for the comments on this. I've looked at the Spinward Marches a little bit differently now because of your comments. What I've done recently today, was to take a map of the spinward marches I have for Campaign Cartographer and erase all the star symbols of worlds that were within J-3 of Adabicci. I replaced them with their WTN values and then looked to see if the values permitted a J-3 ship to survive. In conjunction with the fluctuating trade flow rules, a J-3 ship in Adabicci *can* survive by going places other than Lunion - thus fulfilling the "tramp freighter" definition. A good call on your part

I hate to have to admit it not because of I hate losing a debate - but more because of the implications Against Jump-1 ships in a Far Trader universe. That one paragraph alone kills any potential for utilizing a Jump-1 Beowulf in a Far Trader Universe. Under getting paid on page 28 of Far Trader, it states to effect that delivery times for freight are 7 days plus 10 days per every 2 parsecs of distance - or get penalized by 10% In order for a Jump-1 starship to be able to exist in a marketplace with Jump-2 ships and faster, the rules would have needed to specify:

Delivery date for shipment is 7 days plus 10 days per JUMP . This way, a 2 parsec journey for a J-1 ship has a required delivery date of 27 days. This is "semi-reasonable" in the sense that a ship might have to wait a full day before the shipper can ship the "freight" to the starport and so on. All I can say is that *THIS* Saddens me to the extent that it just wrote out of existance, the basis for having Jump-1 Beowulf class ships right on the spot. Grrrrrrr. Sorta gives me a kicked in the stomach feeling as it were.

 

[Anthony]

If you want jump-1 ships to be economically viable, you pretty much have to fiat them cheaper.

Note that I did the math for high guard. Due to different cost curves for various components, J1 small ships have about the same cost/parsec as J2 small ships at TL 12; for large ships (1,000 dtons) J2 is better; in both cases J3 is significantly more expensive per parsec. At higher TL, due to smaller and cheaper power plants, higher jump ships get the edge.