I'm not familiar with T5 equipment and combat rules, so I was speaking in general (Third Imperium setting) terms. If the rules you use give a jump variance of 10% of the standard +/- 17 hours (which is what I was assuming) you're giving the enemy several free shots at your vanguard (+/- 1.7 hours = +/- 5 combat rounds (assuming 20 minute combat rounds)). If the variance is less than that, we're not talking OTU as far as I am concerned.
Hans
I totally agree Hans, jumping in at the 100D = death as your forces can't concentrate fast enough - but it does give time for Jump Capable ships to get away which the 100D jump does not. Jumping to a place that is jump masked and then move in cohort form to surround the target planet. You are correct it is between 168+/- 5 (if they have naval precision for jump) hours to come out of jump (pg 181 BBB(unless the engineer has arcane skill - then 150 hours)
The defenders have little choice if their strength is significantly less than the attackers. They must attempt escape if they believe that the world they are defending will not be bombed to ashes... The escaping ships that might have fled into jump have the fleet move over their jump line enmass - creating a Jump Line occlusion in which the escaping ships pop back to where they were occluded in the 168 +/- 5 hours.... and slaughtered in single groups by your waiting fleet.
Attacker has the time to do this if
1) they are not detected immediately and the reaction for can't concentrate fast enough - that is can enough defenders are concentrated to attack the initial arrival within 5 hours to avoid the bulk of the fleet, if not then arrival will be unopposed.
2) they significantly outnumber the defenders so that the defenders run and if they have sufficient tonnage available to occlude the jump line
3) the succeed on occluding the escape jump lines in time, which must be done within the 163 hours to catch entire scattering fleet, so max distance from the attacker jump in or detection (which ever is less) and the enemy jump out must be < 163 hours of travel time
If Defender significantly understrength vs Attack
defenders options in this case is to realize some ships are dead as they will be caught- scatter on multiples of vectors to a prearranged after jump meetup. Scatter and Jump mask to make the jump line occlusion calculation hard .
If Defender = Attacker
Fight
If Defender significantly Overstrength of Attack
role reversal - attacker will try to evade and run
Strength is not just tonnage -Weapons Mounts, TL differences, emplaced Defences.... all play a role.