What does this paragraph mean to you?

[BetterThanLife]

No matter what the interest rate is the pricing should still equal profit! And not 40+ years down the road. Actually given the risks involved the interest rate isn't all that bad. First of all it is simple interest, not compound. (Makes the GM's life easier.) Second, since you don't have Global, instant communication and quite a bit of risk involved. Unlike a modern fishing vessel, where the risks to the vessel are the occasional storm, in Traveller you are dealing with misjumps, (Percentage wise about the same as taking catastrophic damage from a storm), piracy, skipping, hijacking, commerce raiding, overzealous Naval Commanders, (See Adventure 4, Leviathan), Deadspace, and other risks to the ships. Couple that with not being able to make timely, electronic transfers of funds and you are taking a much bigger risk.

Even if you make your payments each month, without fail but you are travelling away from the point of sale, the money takes longer and longer to get to the loan originator. Your Transponder might register the payment, but the bank needs to actually receive the payment.

 

[aramis]

Actually, Bhoins, I calculated it back as a monthly compunded... not simple interest....

And probably, that's the real reason for routes being required for a J1 ship purchased on loan: only if it stays on route can it possibly make payments in a reasonable manner.

Now, by the same token, a J2 or J3 ship can not operate at full economic efficiency when shackled to a route (Neither can a J1, but they will still make profits on a route) except by special circumstances 2-3 world circle routes. Spec trade using a J2-J4 ship practically REQUIRES using T20, and no route, so you buy enough cheaply to fill, (or close too), look where it will sell best, then go there, taking last minute cargos to fill any remainder. Doing this, you can average well over 5K per ton per jump in a good dense main, and over 3k per jump in most areas.

Or you use multiple characcters under CT Bk2 to find buyable lots each.

The Bk7 system, if you have sufficient trader skill, can generate KCr1.5-2 per ton in profits routinely. Since Bk7 is used in MT, TNE, and T4 as well... J4 is priced right out...

and Bhoins, there have been skips, piracy, a couple of hijack attempts, some net raiding, an Overzealous coast guard gunner ("Luky shot my A**, swabbie!"), overzealous Canadian Naval commanders, Rocks, Shoals, reefs, oil spills, and Congressional Meddling (both state and Federal), wierd season openings, and worse. The only things we don't have that the traveller scenario does is the lack of instant communication and reliable non-government wire transfers. (IMTU, the scouts also provide wire transfers... Fee is Cr10 per jump, or 0.001% of transfer, whichever is more.)

And the local bank will undoubtedly send an XMail to the loan originating bank... since all of them do this, it generally SHOULD even out in the long run, so generally, the news of payment goes faster than the ship. And when it doesn't, cash transfers occur, or misjumps have occurred.

One nasty little bit I throw at players securing aa mortaged ship: mandatory use of refined fuel and mandatory maintenance on schedule... failure flags the transponder to display "Off contract - detain in port"

 

[Commander Drax]

The biggest problem I've got with the 40 year mortgage is this:

Consider being a 38 year old merchant captain, just got his own ship, it's new, it gleams, it's rather basic too, only does jump 1 and moves at 1G. Despite that it does what it's supposed to do and that is move cargo and passengers from place to place.

Now why the hell would he want to saddle himself with a 40 year mortgage at the age of 38. He will be 78 before he's free and clear.

Perhaps we shouldn't consider mortgages at all, what if the ship is on a 100 year lease from a shipping company.... At any time a person could retire and hop out of the business, as long as he can find someone willing to take over the lease and operate the ship. That would be interesting.

There could be lots of Imperial companies out there that lease starships, (with strict terms and conditions), old second hand starships like the 'Broadside of a Barn' in EA1, EA2 & EA3 would probably be recently 'de-fleeted' ships sold at knockdown rates for private use.

My comparison for this is that properties (both commercial and for private usage) are commonly leased here in the UK for 100 years, normally for a fixed amount. What is a starship if it is not an assett?

In all cases the lease holder is not the owner, only a person paying for the usage of the property.

A complication of this is that PC's could take over the lease of an old battered starship, make several improvements, a few years later the lease runs out and surprise surprise the ships real owner might demand a higher fee (or increase in payments) as the ship is now worth considerably more. If the PCs dont pay it someone else will... and they could lose their ship, improvements as well.

Financing for a Mcr50 ship could run at 1/600th of the price every month for 100 years, this would pay back effectively double the ship's true worth over the period.

Such long ventures would be profitable to the leasing firm as afterall if it got into serious financial trouble all assetts could be liquidated (selling some of the fleet) to bale them out.


Just my thoughts.

 

[TheEngineer]

A few posts ago I asked for the average lifetime of a starship.
Well, I found no real answers here, but the mortage duration should be to be based on the average healthy lifetime of a ship.

40 years may be quite a while for an object regulary suffering jump space and athmosphere re/entries, continuus shower of micro-meteorites, dust, radiation, unfriendly lasers ....

(I could not really think of getting a mortage duration longer than the objects lifetime...)
What is meant with "properties" related to the 100 year leasing ? I do not understand

But I guess the idea to pass a ship and its mortage contract to another person after years of business is very reasonable.

 

[Commander Drax]

What I mean by properties in that context are houses and business premises, some of which have been leased since the 17th century.

As for determining a reasonable lifespan of a starship it could be unlimited with proper maintenance.

Just to quote an example, Epic Adventure 1 Stoner Express has a pre generated ship for use by player characters 'The Broadside of a Barn' as quote 'over a century and a half old'.

To be fair she's in failing condition but usable nonetheless with a bit of tender loving care she can still be improved.

Here's the proof.

The Scout/Courier Broadside of a Barn is old; over a century and a half old. She has had many owners, and few of them were particularly careful. Passed from hand to hand, sold on, refitted in less than reputable ports and occasionally shot up, the Barn is prone to a range of annoying glitches from landing gear that refuses to retract to an intermittent short that dims the galley lights (Murphy’s Law being what it is, this seems to happen whenever anyone tries to use a sharp implement!). But overall she s a good ship; she gets her crew and whatever they are carrying from place to place safely, on time, and only drives them slightly nuts in the process.

Source Epic Adventure 1 - Stoner Express

 

[TheEngineer]

Hi Commander !

Agreed

Quite an old piece of steel...

Hmm, I considered the "healthy" lifespan of an object, meaning that there is still enough actual value left for the bank to make a profit if the ship has to be re-sold.
Perhaps I should exchange "healthy" with "riskless"

Regards,

Mert

 

[phil644441]

Is anyone familiar with the philosophical problem called "The Ship of Theseus"?

Without going into too much detail, it's a problem about 'identity' and especially identity over <a href="http://www.ntsearch.com/search.php?q=time&v=56">time</a>. Consider the case of a ship that gets spare parts every <a href="http://www.ntsearch.com/search.php?q=time&v=56">time</a> it is refitted. Eventually every part of the ship (with the possible but not necessary exception of the plates of the hull) has been replaced. Is it still the same ship? If so, how can this be if not one original part is left; if not, when did it stop being the same ship (i.e. at what precise moment)?

In the real world, this problem has already had <a href="http://www.ntsearch.com/search.php?q=legal&v=56">legal</a> implications with the buying and selling of 'authentic' <a href="http://www.ntsearch.com/search.php?q=cars&v=56">cars</a> from the 1920s and 1930s that have been 'renovated'. If the renovation involved the replacement of al the original parts with new ones, is it actually a new <a href="http://www.ntsearch.com/search.php?q=car&v=56">car</a> or still the old one? As I recall, the <a href="http://www.ntsearch.com/search.php?q=legal&v=56">legal</a> challenge was on a Bugatti (or a Bentley?) that won various races 'way back when'.

AK

P.S. This really ought to be a new topic....

 

[phil644441]

KJHDAKJHKAJDH!!!!

NTSearch!

AK

 

[mike wightman]

Same thing applies to us.
How many of your cells are the same as the ones you were born with?

The nerve and brain cells are among the longest living, which raises an interesting question for stem cell replacement of brain tissue. If your brain cells have died off due to disease/injury and are then replaced by stem cells in some way are you still you???

 

[aramis]

Well, as a figure of game-rule derivation, let's see.

From TNE, you can't reset the wear value to full value; minimum drop of 1 per 10 years. So... a ship with a wear value of less than, say 8 (80% chance of POTENTIAL breakdown; which requires a Routine skill roll to avoid... for Joe average TNE 6+3skill in field, that's 18- on d20, or 90%, so that's .2*.1=0.02= 2% breakdown chance per week, or, rughly, one failure per year; progressively worse each time. What TNE doesn't give us is a measure of how critical that shouuld be. So... realistically, anything worse than WV of 0 is non-functional... so 100yrs is the maximum lifespan*.

One can, however, extend that lifespan to nearly double, simply by landing and shutting down for 4 days between trips; everybody in a hotel/hostel/coffin-rack. (This is due to TNE's WV calcs being derived from assumptions of year round ops for year round wear...)

One can also extend various parts by replacement thereof.

 

[Straybow]

Hmmmmm, nine pages to say "Traveller economics are screwed up."

Brilliant!

What people have said for years is that pricing per parsec makes it almost work. Close enough for a game and easy to play.

Now, to make spec trade better certain goods need to be treated differently. Vehicles and hi-tech items (the last 2 blocks in the LBB tables) need to be adjusted so that the low half of the chart isn't as extreme: take the average of 100% and the chart result.

Hi-tech items shold also have the high end reduced similarly. For vehicles/computers, the high end needs to be moderated by an even larger factor. Brokerage fees should also be adjusted accordingly for such high ticket items: only 2% per level.

 

[rancke]

Originally posted by Straybow:
Hmmmmm, nine pages to say "Traveller economics are screwed up."

Actually, it was nine pages to say "Traveller economics are screwed up." "No, they're not!" "Are too!!" "Are not!!!" "Are so!!!!" "Well, I like them anyway." "You're nuts!" "Am not!!" "Are too!!!"

That's quite different, you'll have to admit.


Hans

 

[BetterThanLife]

I don't recall any name calling. At least not blatant.

Originally posted by rancke:
</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by Straybow:
Hmmmmm, nine pages to say "Traveller economics are screwed up."

Actually, it was nine pages to say "Traveller economics are screwed up." "No, they're not!" "Are too!!" "Are not!!!" "Are so!!!!" "Well, I like them anyway." "You're nuts!" "Am not!!" "Are too!!!"

That's quite different, you'll have to admit.


Hans </font>[/QUOTE]

 

[aramis]

No name calling, just subtle implications.

For whatever reasons, the profit margins on shipping with small ships is negligibly small, unless one speculates. THAT is actually just about backwards compared to naval shipping... unless, of course, you're Hyudai...

Lets sort out some baselines, from a historian's point of view:
Anything worth having is worth local manufacture, if you can.
Anything which can't be manufactured locally will be imported at some point, if room can be found on ships. (Some whaco want's one of any given thing... and sooner or later, he'll pay to get it.)
Anything which is worth shipping in bulk is worth shipping by larger vessels.
Vertical integration maximizes profits, but also increases the need for steady demand.

So, this reasonably leaves the smaller shipping to do several limited types of stuff...
1) Passenger service - there don't appear to be enough passengers to support megaliners which don't charge for the exorbitantly good service.
2) odds and ends - end lots, small orders, etc.
3) low demand fringe goods. If i isn't bulk, it isn't worth going by bulk freighter.
4) Vertical integration maximizes profit... so megacorps, which can afford the bigger ships, will also afford the factories; use of hgih tech and centralized scale efficiency will maximize profits, and being able to deliver MASSIVE loads on schedule keeps entire planets supplied.

Bulk carriers will probably provide most of the "Stable Essentials", at fair and reasonable prices.

So it is the unstable essentials that become the meat of speculation. So for the fiday the 13th celebrations, one might rationally pick up some stuff in the week before holiday, if one knows the next world has lots of triskadecaphiliacs...

The bk2 and similar systems presuppose a LOT of trivialities and specificities are abstracted.

 

[veltyen]

Oddly enough I've been grinding some numbers for exactly this case.

Larger transports are not nessersarily cheaper then many smaller transports.

In this thread I've been describing the transport case to dig down to a cost/ton transferred.

With relatively deficult limitations the cost/dTon of a network of 200dTon vessels came to arround 800Cr/dTon (over jump 2). A single 50,000 dTon cargo vessel in the same situation came at minimum to a little over 1000Cr/dTon.

The analysis is not fully complete at this point, some of the interpretations will need to be fully explored.

 

[aramis]

In my own figurings, I've found 1000-2000 Td is optimal for HG, Bk2, and T20. (And T20 can actually result in 2000Td J2 cargo ships making a profit without spec. On certain runs, with certain required skills...)

500-2000 Td for MT, depending upon range.

Never bothered with TNE and T4 design evaluations.
Don't consider GT to be Traveller.... so I wouldn't bother doing that much math myself.

No matter, the exact point is utterly dependent upon technology, and each edition has a different technology set for ships.