UWP changes over time

[kaladorn]

I'm thinking of the idea of developing a 'living' game area (say a sector or subsector) where an automated system could generate TNS like entries. Part of this process would involve the generation of changes over time to UWPs (this would give the automated generator clues that there was something major going on such as war, plague, movement of immigrants, emmigrants, or refugees, etc). This got me to wondering how often/how profoundly a planetary UWP will change. (Or more correctly the background reality since the UWP will only really chane once every 20 years or so with a survey, no?).

Anyway, does anyone have any suggestions as to what would be low/medium/fast rates for changes to various UWP stats?

I would expect that Size is fairly constant. Starport might be, but it could change. Hydrographics and Atmosphere are most likely constant, but any notable change here will be hugely significant. Population (multiplier and UWP code) could change fairly readily for various causes and tech could move up or down. Government probably is *likely* to change regularly. (Well, if the real world is any guideline - maybe 3I is more stable than modern day polities...).

Thought? Insights? Suggested periods for change (ie change 1 UWP digit for X in Y years) or probabilities of change in per annum terms?

Thanks for any input you may have.

 

[robject]

Perhaps you could set a trend for each stat, and a probability for change for each stat in a given year. If a change is detected, then, the stat changes by the <trend> amount, and the trend amount itself is bumped slightly up or down. Having a trend smooths over the randomness, making changes look more uniform than not while still allowing occasional hiccups (catastrophes or breakthroughs).

Here's an example of what I mean. I have NO IDEA if the probabilties and trend values make sense.
</font><blockquote>code:</font><hr /><pre style="font-size:x-small; font-family: monospace;">Stat Trend p/yr
Starport: +0.5 0.01
Size: -5.0 0.000000001
Hyd: 0.0 0.00001
Atm: 0.0 0.0001
Pop: +0.1 0.1
TL: +0.1 0.1</pre>[/QUOTE]

 

[kaladorn]

Robject,

That's very much what I was thinking. I was going to represent trends and outliers events. The trends may change over time too, thus becoming something cyclic or whatever.

What I'm sort of struggling with is what are sensible values for change.

Population growths probably shouldn't exceed 3-5% from natural increase (immigration might account for as much as 1000% or something in some cases if some other world is 'front loading' a nascent colony).

Tech advances.... we've blown through 2 or 3 tech levels in 100 years on Earth.

Atmosphere? Ours might be changing from standard to standard/tainted, but that's a slow change.

Hydrographics? Since it measures surface water, I'm thinking due to global warming it may have increased, but it may actually be fairly constant.

Government? We're still type 7, but within that, a lot of polities may have shifted from various dictatorships to democracies and some of the democracies may be closer to impersonal bureaucracies. And that's in 20-30 years.

Law? We're distinctly non-uniform, but in the major countries, it has been going up lately. Now, taken over 100 years, one might say we've gone from something akin to law 2 or 3 to something akin to law 6-8 in most G20 type nations. That's quite significant.

And then again we have to wonder what comparing modern world or limited period data to the mythical and fictional 3rd Imperium means....?

 

[robject]

You're right about population. Set it at 1% initially and run a simulation. Play with it. You might also want rules for affecting population if the planet's atmosphere or hydrosphere change... and if the size changes, well, I guess that means the population would go to zero...

As far as tech improvement, I'd set it very slow, and in fact maybe tie it to its current TL as well, and only then add in a boost around TL 6 or so, which tapers off at TL 8, if you like. I'd say our rapid TL advancement might say more about GDW-and-Marc Miller of the 70's than technical progress.

Anyway, start out with something and run a little bitty simulation. That sounds like a lot of fun, actually.

 

[jappel]

Do you have a copy of Pocket Empires from T4? It covers much of what you're looking for, I think.

There's also a spreadsheet around somewhere that allows you to enter the various generated values, with the spreadsheet crunching the numbers for all the various economic formulae.

John

 

[kaladorn]

Sadly, no. It is one of the T4 products I don't own because I wasn't overfond of T4 (understating the fact). I have heard it is possibly the one bright light in T4's pantheon.

 

[jappel]

I strongly suggest that you track down a copy (or snag the PDF from DriveThruRPG) - it will save you from having to reinvent the wheel!

John

 

[kaladorn]

Will look for PE, but don't do DRM. (Personal bias, admittedly)