Thoughts on GURPS economics?

[Carlobrand]

Working on a project, looking at economics in the Marches, trying to get a feel for how many ships are flying in and out of these ports. First approximation's basic - I applied the Striker info on GDP to get a feel for the various worlds' economic output.

Then I played around a bit with some GURPS-derived info: a sector map derived from GURPS rules, laying out trade routes along with tonnage. That one was interesting, but started looking odd when I got into the details.

Example: Sharrip, a nice little world except for the tainted atmosphere, population a whopping 50 brave souls - and its class C port is a trans-shipment point for an average 54 ships and 500 thousand dTons of cargo every day.

Example: Drolraw, a world of 1600 souls living under a corrosive atmosphere, delivering 140 dTons of cargo every single day to its class E fuelless "bare spot of bedrock" for shipment to Strouden on one of the subsidized merchants or free traders that land there daily.

So, I'm wondering what people think of the GURPS trade rules. I know zip about GURPS' variant of the Marches - I have to presume their rules fit the Marches of their universe. However, the large number of heavily-trafficked Jump-3 and even Jump-4 routes and the amount of traffic and cargo shipping around doesn't exactly feel like the frontier Marches I'm used to. System doesn't seem to fit the CT universe well.

 

[mike wightman]

The GT authors brought a lot of their own personal views of how things should work - notice the introduction of LASH trading for example.

Their economics rules work for the GT ATU, but as you have found they don't fit the OTU; they are based on different base assumptions.

 

[rancke]

Their economics rules work for the GT ATU, but as you have found they don't fit the OTU; they are based on different base assumptions.

Unfortunately, the CT economics rules don't fit the OTU either (because they are inconsistent and don't fit ANY universe). If they had fitted, the GT authors wouldn't have had any need to come up with alternate rules.


Hans

 

[aramis]

GTFT seems to underrate the effects of distance, especially comm lag, and generates some trade flows in excess of 60 parsecs. Keeping in mind, that means, at best affordable speeds (j3) almost a year round trip...

GTFT also tends to assume a trade flow based upon the sum of both ends, rather than the lower end's, economy, and due to the use of logarithms, this may be severe artificial inflation.

It also ignores the historical pattern of colonial settlements to rapidly duplicate production capabilities, even when more expensive, in order to prevent shortages due to travel lags, and for colonies to attempt economic self-reliance even as trade flows grow. In fact, the decreasing autonomy is a late 20th C function -as communication bandwith climbs, comparative advantage and economies of scale seem to drive globalization.

 

[aramis]

Unfortunately, the CT economics rules don't fit the OTU either (because they are inconsistent and don't fit ANY universe). If they had fitted, the GT authors wouldn't have had any need to come up with alternate rules.


Hans

GURPS being what it is, an Anal-Retentive top-down massively simulationist GURPS book would have been inevitable, because as a rule, that's the kind of thing GURPS players tended to like at the time (and for the most part, still do). Traveller could have had a fully developed Top-down of its own, and GTFT would STILL have been essential, due to it not being GURPS centered... again, because GURPS players tend to demand it.

 

[rancke]

GTFT seems to underrate the effects of distance, especially comm lag and generates some trade flows in excess of 60 parsecs. Keeping in mind, that means, at best affordable speeds (j3) almost a year round trip...

I think that is down to your assumptions about what FT assumes. Where does it say that communication is a factor in 60 parsec trade distances? I think that long distance trade is of the Silk Road variety: One ship carries a load a couple of jumps and then either sells it to another shipper or transfers the cargo to another ship belonging to the same megacorporation. There are going to be the odd China Tea Trade type trade over long distances, but they'll be the outliers. Trade by order will be along much shorter distances or by standing order.

GTFT also tends to assume a trade flow based upon the sum of both ends, rather than the lower end's, economy, and due to the use of logarithms, this may be severe artificial inflation.

The gravity model may not work, but that's not proven. The author believed it would work. What's your proof that it doesn't.

Much more important to me, though, is that even if it is incorrect, it's still a vastly better model than the CT one, seeing as CT didn't give us any model at all.

It also ignores the historical pattern of colonial settlements to rapidly duplicate production capabilities, even when more expensive, in order to prevent shortages due to travel lags, and for colonies to attempt economic self-reliance even as trade flows grow. In fact, the decreasing autonomy is a late 20th C function -as communication bandwith climbs, comparative advantage and economies of scale seem to drive globalization.

Silk Road type trade, not modern instant-communication driven trade. Long distance trade will be luxuries, not stables. And the volumes FT generates seem low enough to fit that model.


Hans

 

[Vargas]

Unfortunately, the CT economics rules don't fit the OTU either (because they are inconsistent and don't fit ANY universe). If they had fitted, the GT authors wouldn't have had any need to come up with alternate rules.

I liked the comment made sometime back that extrapolating trade on an Imperium wide scale using the CT trade rules is a lot like trying to extrapolate modern day world-wide shipping based on dhow traffic off Africa.

 

[mike wightman]

Unfortunately, the CT economics rules don't fit the OTU either (because they are inconsistent and don't fit ANY universe). If they had fitted, the GT authors wouldn't have had any need to come up with alternate rules.


Hans

There are no economics rules in CT.

There is a trading system designed for tramp traders, there is a naval budget system for High Guard fleets, and there are planetary military budgets from Striker.

For far too long people have missed the point of the trade rules in the basic rules - they do not model the economics of the Imperium.

 

[Dragoner]

After taking quite a few economics courses on my way to a degree in business, and having discussion with gurpites here, it is fantasy economics. For example, the gurpites say the 3I does not have an advanced economy or central banking system, which is fantasy; otherwise one winds up with an interstellar barter system. I wouldn't put it past the author had a right-wing political agenda that would make Mankiw blush.

 

[Carlobrand]

... Where does it say that communication is a factor in 60 parsec trade distances? I think that long distance trade is of the Silk Road variety: One ship carries a load a couple of jumps and then either sells it to another shipper or transfers the cargo to another ship belonging to the same megacorporation. There are going to be the odd China Tea Trade type trade over long distances, but they'll be the outliers. Trade by order will be along much shorter distances or by standing order.

The question then becomes: do the GURPS rules make the 60-parsec "China Tea Trade" transactions an odd outlier, or do they make them a significant aspect of the trade economy? I'm not familiar enough with the GURPS trade rules to know the answer, having only the results of those rules to work with.

Certainly there are things like TL 15 computers and products derived from specific local species that don't thrive elsewhere, that will form the basis of quite a few "China Tea Trade" routes. And, certainly, the historical tea trade was quite a profitable adventure for some of the players involved. However, the European economy as a whole couldn't be judged just by its distant imports. How much of the GURPS-based economy flows from such trades?

...
The gravity model may not work, but that's not proven. The author believed it would work. What's your proof that it doesn't.

I don't know what his proof is, but I did provide a couple of examples where it went a bit odd. My understanding of trade economy is that it tends to be demand-driven. Modelling an economy around a mathematical model that puts heavy weight on a strong supply sounds a bit backward to me, but then I'm not even a decent amateur economist, let alone a professional.

...
Much more important to me, though, is that even if it is incorrect, it's still a vastly better model than the CT one, seeing as CT didn't give us any model at all.

Not if it paints a picture that doesn't bear any resemblance to canon. My goal wasn't to make a detailed study of fictional economic structures. My goal was more practical: to get a feel for how busy the starport was, for those moments when a group of players is strolling through the starport or bringing their own ship in from the 100-diameter limit. There's a literal universe of difference between a hostile-atmosphered Drolraw with a forlorn "bare spot of bedrock" on which to land and a space-suited walk to the strange-but-ingenious settlement the locals managed to build around TL 5 tech and the odd bit of higher tech they could afford and maintain, and a Drolraw with a "bare spot of bedrock" served by pressure-tight warehouses and TL 5 local vehicles, cleverly adapted to deal with the atmosphere, waiting to load the next inbound daily transport.

That leads me in turn to question the picture it paints of a Marches with many C and D ports playing host to dozens of ships every day - some quite impressively large. If the image of Drolraw is off, are those images to be trusted? Should I trust that picture when talking my players in from orbit, just because GURPS is the only (currently available) product brave enough to paint the picture? Or, is that picture too specific to GURPS to be useful to me?

Since I don't have any GURPS material on the Marches worlds other than the bits and hints off the wiki, and thus cannot compare the GURPS Marches to the CT Marches - indeed, I have precious little GURPS Traveller material beyond that sector map and the odd comment or table collected here and there on the web - I'm in a rather poor position to make an informed judgement, and thus I solicit opinion.

 

[aramis]

Given that there are 60x as many 60hex routes as 1 hex routes, they add up to a significant chunk of trade. Yes, 60 hexes is -3.5 orders of magnitude...

The actual range band is 60-99 hexes is -3.5 magnitude.
60+61+62+...+98+99 = 3190
Log₁₀(3190) is just a hair over 3.5... 3.50242712
making it just as significant as range 1 (BTN-0)

This means that Aramis/Aramis, WTN 4, has some trade with every BTN 4+ world within 99 hexes (BTN=WTN1+WTN2+DistMod+Opposed Pair Mod)
Opposing trade pairs add a +0.5 BTN
BTN 4 is some regular trade - 0-5 tons per year...
BTN 4.5 is monthly trade of 0-5 tons.
BTN 5.5 is some regular trade weekly.
BTN 7 is a weekly type A
BTN 8 is a daily type A or a weekly type TI

Now, given that WTN is essentially UWTN=(Log₁₀(Population)/2)+((TL/6)-0.5)
We can simplify to PopCode/2+TL/6-0.5.
The starport mod is convoluted, and ties to UWTN and Starport type.. but essentially,
A ports are +0 at UWTN 5+
B at 4-5.5
C at 3-4.5
D at 2-3.5
E at 1-2.5
X is funky - best to just ignore X, and zero it out, because the table has a nasty glitch making UWTN ≤1.5 have more actual trade than UWTN 2-5

Anyway, for each band 1 UWTN wide above the expected range for the starport, -0.5 WTN, and for each 2 below, +0.5.

 

[Carlobrand]

Given that there are 60x as many 60hex routes as 1 hex routes, they add up to a significant chunk of trade. Yes, 60 hexes is -3.5 orders of magnitude...

The actual range band is 60-99 hexes is -3.5 magnitude.
60+61+62+...+98+99 = 3190
Log₁₀(3190) is just a hair over 3.5... 3.50242712
making it just as significant as range 1 (BTN-0)

This means that Aramis/Aramis, WTN 4, has some trade with every BTN 4+ world within 99 hexes (BTN=WTN1+WTN2+DistMod+Opposed Pair Mod)
Opposing trade pairs add a +0.5 BTN
BTN 4 is some regular trade - 0-5 tons per year...
BTN 4.5 is monthly trade of 0-5 tons.
BTN 5.5 is some regular trade weekly.
BTN 7 is a weekly type A
BTN 8 is a daily type A or a weekly type TI

Now, given that WTN is essentially UWTN=(Log₁₀(Population)/2)+((TL/6)-0.5)
We can simplify to PopCode/2+TL/6-0.5.
The starport mod is convoluted, and ties to UWTN and Starport type.. but essentially,
A ports are +0 at UWTN 5+
B at 4-5.5
C at 3-4.5
D at 2-3.5
E at 1-2.5
X is funky - best to just ignore X, and zero it out, because the table has a nasty glitch making UWTN ≤1.5 have more actual trade than UWTN 2-5

Anyway, for each band 1 UWTN wide above the expected range for the starport, -0.5 WTN, and for each 2 below, +0.5.

Okay, soooo ... I actually understood very little of that.

BTN=WTN1+WTN2+DistMod+Opposed Pair Mod: you add the two World Trade Numbers, subtract the distance modifier - which is that logarithmic number you generated? - then add an "opposed pair mod," which is ... what? I'm guessing a lot of this comes off of tables.

The WTN is half the log of the population plus a sixth of the tech level (??) minus a half. Which is a bit random, but since trade volume goes up by a factor of 10 for every increase in BTN, maybe that works sort of. But ... I thought the GURPS tech levels don't quite match CT techs.

You added a bunch of ranges together and generated the log of the sum to get a distance modifier. Presumably GURPS has range bands based around that logging bit - log 1 is 0, log of the next three ranges summed (2, 3, 4) is almost 1, log of the next ten ranges summed (5 to 14) is almost 2, so maybe that's what's forming the range bands. Which is - kinda random.

How are their ships fueled? Is the fuel consumption on a logarithmic scale, or is it straight linear? Do the ships cost more for longer jump ranges? Do they carry less cargo for longer jump ranges? Do shipping costs overall follow a logarithmic scale? If shipping costs don't follow a logarithmic scale, then what is their logic for applying a logarithmic scale to range? It seems to fail on that point alone.

And that starport bit - 0 at WTN 5+ for an A, 0 at 4 to 5.5 for a B, and the WTN decreases from there as the pop gets bigger? I think I'm not understanding it right.

 

[aramis]

Actually, no, the distance mods are from a table. I noted that the 60-99 hex range band happens to have a 10^3.5 times as many worlds, which happens to make that whole band exactly as important overall as the worlds right next door...

That part's an observation of coincidence.

The TL's - up to TL 10, GURPS TL is roughly 1 above Traveller's - GURPS TL10 is pretty much Traveller TL 9-10, GTL11 is roughly TTL 11-13, GTL12 is TTL 14-15, and GTL13 is roughly TTL 16-18. It's close enough to just adjust for, which I did, and just basically smoothed it out from the table steps. Which are GTL0-2 UWTN-.5, GTL3-5 UWTN+0, GTL6-8 UWTN+.5, GTL9-11 UWTN+1, GTL12-13 UWTN+1.5. Using TTL/6 round nearest 0.5 then subtract 0.5 is close enough, given the ranges involved.

The range bands from GTFT:
1Pc -0
2Pc -0.5
3-5Pc -1
6-9Pc -1.5
10-19Pc -2
20-29Pc -2.5
30-59Pc -3
60-99Pc -3.5
100-199Pc -4
200-299Pc -4.5
300-599Pc -5
600-999Pc -5.5
1000Pc+ -6

Note that the maximum canonical GTL 12 WTN is 6.5, and the maximum trade pairing is BTN 14.5 or so, before distance, which can mean worlds trading with a net BTN 8.5 - that's two TL15 Pop A worlds doing up to 10^8.5=3.5E8 Cr per year - or Cr 1E6 per day, at 1000Pc+... given the size minus for that, that's 1-5 tons per day... worth a million Cr per day...

 

[aramis]

For comparison - Earth to Mora - is some 300 Pc along the XBoat routes...
-5. Earth is, in the Classic Era, GTL12. So is Mora. Earth is pop A. Both have A Ports.
BTN is thus 6.5 per each, for 13, -5 for distance, that's BTN 8... which, given the size modifiers for "long distance trade" results in 100-500 Td per week between the two, but worth MCr100-MCr500 per week in trade flow. There is, quite literally, not much I can think of that would justify 1-5 Type A's loaded with MCr100 worth of high value goods from Earth per week hitting mora, and vice versa.

Given that the route requires, at J2, about 150 jumps, that's a rough cost in CT of about KCr2 per ton per hop... about MCr30 markup. (Ignoring that CT canon says KCr1 per hop - which, BTW, is just barely doable under Bk 2.)

They also presumed a base value per ton of approximately KCr10 per ton - twice what MWM assumed in CT Bk7... so, for real CT levels of trade, we need to double the tonnages from the BTN.

 

[rancke]

For comparison - Earth to Mora - is some 300 Pc along the XBoat routes...

-5. Earth is, in the Classic Era, GTL12. So is Mora. Earth is pop A. Both have A Ports.

BTN is thus 6.5 per each, for 13, -5 for distance, that's BTN 8... which, given the size modifiers for "long distance trade" results in 100-500 Td per week between the two, but worth MCr100-MCr500 per week in trade flow.

At a distance of 300 parsecs bulk is an order of magnitude less (BTN 7) but the total value remain the same (i.e. the average value is ten times higher). That's 1000 to 5000 dT per year or 20 to 100 dT per week. (Ignoring the Dton/week column of the table which is broken).

There is, quite literally, not much I can think of that would justify 1-5 Type A's loaded with MCr100 worth of high value goods from Earth per week hitting mora, and vice versa.

Luxury foodstuffs. Wine, coffee, tea, chocolate, spices. Prestige goods. Grav vehicles made by Rolls Royce, furniture made of genuine Terran wood, Parisian dresses.

Given that the route requires, at J2, about 150 jumps...

More likely by jump-3. cost is roughly the same and the time 33% less.

...that's a rough cost in CT of about KCr2 per ton per hop... about MCr30 markup.

I thought the true per parsec cost was around 600 credits for J2 and J3? But even at Cr1000 per parsec it's only a Cr300,000 markup.

They also presumed a base value per ton of approximately KCr10 per ton - twice what MWM assumed in CT Bk7... so, for real CT levels of trade, we need to double the tonnages from the BTN.

Average base value for goods across 300 parsecs is assumed to be Cr100,000 per dT.


Hans

 

[Carlobrand]

...That's 1000 to 5000 dT per year or 20 to 100 dT per week. ... Luxury foodstuffs. Wine, coffee, tea, chocolate, spices. Prestige goods. Grav vehicles made by Rolls Royce, furniture made of genuine Terran wood, Parisian dresses. ...

Okay, but - 300 parsecs! That's a huge volume of space, even on the 2-d map of Traveller. 270,900 hexes in which a star system might occur! There could easily be up to a thousand TL-15 high-pop, Class-A port worlds within 300 parsecs of Earth. And, considering that the closer you get, the greater the volume of trade; that as you get closer, thousands of worlds of lower tech and lesser port start coming into play; and that many of the worlds close to Earth are high tech, high pop worlds with Class A starports to begin with, can Earth even produce enough cargo to fill the demands of thousands of worlds? With billions of wealthy elite living far closer to Earth than Mora is, is it not more likely that Earth's exports of champagne and Rolls Royces will be bought up and find homes long before they can get to Mora and the other worlds 300 parsecs out?

 

[aramis]

Cost for a HG J2 is about Cr1100/Ton-parsec, while it's Cr1333/Ton-Parsec for J3... and that ONLY using TL15 haulers... Of course, the cost for a HG J1 hauler runs about Cr1400/Td... o: Oh, and TL 9 and 13 break points are worse still, due to PP rates.

Bk2 is very different numbers... but J2 is still several hundred credits per ton-parsec cheaper. Even 60 jumps is too long for coffee, tho'. That's still 2 years - which is long enough for even the best packed coffee to have anaerobic chemistry flavor changes. Many spices will likewise have gone flat, and 2 year old chocolate is often ++ungood; 2 year old fine chocolate isn't fine anymore. Booze, sure... but fine booze should be in the MCr1+ range per dton.

As for the KCr100/ton for long haul - yes, true. And accounted for in the volume mentioned (I subtracted the 2 before looking at the volume) - but that's still an MCr a week between Mora and Earth each way.

In GT, it might be workable to ship J3 - but not in CT (either Bk 2 or Bk5 designs), because it's almost a 10% surcharge for 66% of the time taken. And note that other TTL14-15 Pop A worlds anywhere inside the Imperium will have similar trade flows with both.

I really need to do the Bk2 numbers fully. I've only done some of them.

Just running some numbers quickly...
Cost per ton for 1.67 J3 and 1J5 in Bk2:
1.67j3 1000Td basic box drives J-Q=3 M-E=1 P-Q=3
Op Cost per cargo ton per jump 3886.1
Op Cost per cargo ton per Parsec 1295.4

1j5 basic box drives J-W=5 M-E=1 P-P=5
Op Cost per cargo ton per jump 7951.4
Op Cost per cargo ton per Parsec 1590.3

And, for comparison


1j6 1000Td basic box drives J-Y=6 M-E=1 P-Y=6
Op Cost per cargo ton per jump 48771
Op Cost per cargo ton per Parsec 8128.5

1j5 basic box drives J-W=5 M-E=1 P-P=5
Op Cost per cargo ton per jump 7951.4
Op Cost per cargo ton per Parsec 1590.3

1j4 1000Td basic box drives J-V=4 M-E=1 P-V=4
Op Cost per cargo ton per jump 4041.2
Op Cost per cargo ton per Parsec 1010.3

1j3 1000Td basic box drives J-Q=3 M-E=1 P-Q=3
Op Cost per cargo ton per jump 2099.4
Op Cost per cargo ton per Parsec 699.9

1j2 1000Td Drives K E K
Op Cost per cargo ton per jump 1178.2
Op Cost per cargo ton per Parsec 589.1

1j1 1000Td Drives E E E
Op Cost per cargo ton per jump 666
Op Cost per cargo ton per Parsec 666

And this is all before the roughly 30% markup to find "fair shipping value"

 

[rancke]

I sat down and made a couple of freighters by HG2 rules. My results differ considerably from Wil's.

HG2 2,000 T generic TL15 Jump-2 freighter 

                              Internal  Energy  Cost    Crew
                               space    points


2,000 T config 7 hull          2,000        -  100.0    6.0
Jump drive 2                     -60        -  240.0    0.6
Jump fuel tankage               -400        -      -      -
Maneuver drive 1                 -40      -40   60.0    0.4
Power plant 2                    -40       40  120.0    0.4
Power plant fuel                 -40        -      -      -
Bridge                           -40        -   20.0   11.0
Computer Model 2                  -2       -0    9.0      -
19 staterooms                    -76        -    9.5      -
1302 T cargo space             -1302        -      -      -
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                              0        0  558.5   18.4 = 19 

Payment: MCr111.7 down payment, MCr446.8 bank loan.

(Note: I couldn't find the rule about discount for multiple ships in HG2, so
probably actually costs 10 or 20% less).

Crew:

(Note: Based on the rules for military manning, since HG doesn't provide
rules for civilian ship design, so probably overmanned).

Captain, executive officer, computer officer 2 astrogation officers, medical
officer, communication officer, 4 bridge hands, 2 engineers, 6 deck hands.

Monthly salaries:

(For salaries I've had to turn to Book 2, since HG doesn't list any).

Based on:

Captain: Cr6000 (pilot)
Other bridge officer: Cr5000 (navigator)
Engineer: Cr4000 (engineer)
Medical officer: Cr2000 (medic)
Bridge and deck hands: Cr3000 (steward)


Captain       Cr6,000
5 officers   Cr25,000
2 engineers   Cr8,000
Medic         Cr2,000
10 hands     Cr30,000

Total monthly salary: Cr71,000




Yearly expenses for 35 jumps per year (in MCr):

                                          Notes
Yearly bank payments:           22.34     12/240th of loan
Profit on investment:            5.59     equivalent rate of return
14,000T of jump fuel:            7.00     35 loads
480T of power plant fuel:        0.24     12 months' worth
Salaries                         0.85
Life support                     0.91     19 men @ Cr4000 per month
Port fees                        0.02     35 * Cr600
-------------------------------------
Total yearly expenses           36.95

Total dT of freight carried per year (35*1302): 45,570
Cost per dT carried 2 parsecs: Cr811
Cost per dT per parsec:  Cr405



HG2 2,000 T generic TL15 Jump-3 freighter 

                              Internal  Energy  Cost    Crew
                               space    points


2,000 T config 7 hull          2,000        -  100.0    6.0
Jump drive 3                     -80        -  320.0    0.8
Jump fuel tankage               -600        -      -      -
Maneuver drive 1                 -40      -40   60.0    0.4
Power plant 3                    -60       60  180.0    0.6
Power plant fuel                 -60        -      -      -
Bridge                           -40        -   20.0   11.0
Computer Model 3                  -3       -1   18.0      -
19 staterooms                    -76        -    9.5      -
1041 T cargo space             -1041        -      -      -
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                              0        0  707.5   18.6 = 19 

Payment: MCr141.5 down payment, MCr566 bank loan.


Crew:

Captain, executive officer, computer officer 2 astrogation officers, medical
officer, communication officer, 4 bridge hands, 2 engineers, 6 deck hands.

Monthly salaries:

Captain       Cr6,000
5 officers   Cr25,000
2 engineers   Cr8,000
Medic         Cr2,000
10 hands     Cr30,000

Total monthly salary: Cr71,000




Yearly expenses for 35 jumps per year (in MCr):

                                          Notes
Yearly bank payments:           28.30     12/240th of loan
Profit on investment:            7.08     equivalent rate of return
21,000T of jump fuel:           10.50     35 loads
720T of power plant fuel:        0.36     12 months' worth
Salaries                         0.85
Life support                     0.91     19 men @ Cr4000 per month
Port fees                        0.02     35 * Cr600
-------------------------------------
Total yearly expenses           48.02

Total dT of freight carried per year (35*1041): 36,435
Cost per dT carried 3 parsecs: Cr1318
Cost per dT per parsec:  Cr439

So I get a per parsec cost of Cr405 for jump-2 and Cr439 for jump-3[*]. At that cost difference, the choice will boil down to astrography. It would IMO be reasonable to assume an average speed of 2.5 parsecs per jump at an average cost of Cr422 per parsec.

[*] I may, of course, have miscalculated here and there. Please point out any mistakes you spot.​

Note that this is sticking as close as I can to ship design rules for military ships that have been simplified for game purposes. Once discounts for multiple ships, civilian type manning (whatever that may be for 1000T+ ships), and correct fuel costs are taken into account, the true cost will turn out to be (guesstimate) 10-20% lower.


Hans

 

[rancke]

Okay, but - 300 parsecs! That's a huge volume of space, even on the 2-d map of Traveller. 270,900 hexes in which a star system might occur! There could easily be up to a thousand TL-15 high-pop, Class-A port worlds within 300 parsecs of Earth. And, considering that the closer you get, the greater the volume of trade; that as you get closer, thousands of worlds of lower tech and lesser port start coming into play; and that many of the worlds close to Earth are high tech, high pop worlds with Class A starports to begin with, can Earth even produce enough cargo to fill the demands of thousands of worlds?

I have no idea what amount of goods are produced on Earth today. I do know that it is a lot and also that the author of FT was a professional economist, so until someone actually proves differently, I'm going to assume he got his numbers right and high-tech, high-population worlds can produce that sort of volumes of trade goods his model comes up with. It's argument by authority, I know, and may be wrong, but arguing against it without actual numbers is argument by common sense, and common sense surprisingly often isn't.

With billions of wealthy elite living far closer to Earth than Mora is, is it not more likely that Earth's exports of champagne and Rolls Royces will be bought up and find homes long before they can get to Mora and the other worlds 300 parsecs out?

That simply means that billionaires on Mora have to be willing to pay more. Obviously there will be fewer Moran billionaires that will be willing to pay the mark-up, so you'd expect trade volumes to go down with distance...


Hans

 

[rancke]

CEven 60 jumps is too long for coffee, tho'. That's still 2 years - which is long enough for even the best packed coffee to have anaerobic chemistry flavor changes. Many spices will likewise have gone flat, and 2 year old chocolate is often ++ungood; 2 year old fine chocolate isn't fine anymore. Booze, sure... but fine booze should be in the MCr1+ range per dton.

You're assuming that the food preservation techniques we've worked out at TL7 won't improve at higher tech levels. I think it's a perfectly legitimate assumption that food preservation will improve at ultra-tech levels.

As for the KCr100/ton for long haul - yes, true. And accounted for in the volume mentioned (I subtracted the 2 before looking at the volume) - but that's still an MCr a week between Mora and Earth each way.

I must be failing to grasp what you're saying, because it sounds like pure nonsense to me. Where does the MCr per week come in? For how many weeks? The cost, assuming Cr1000 per parsec (which by my figures is about 2.5 times too much (see post above)), is Cr300,000 per dT for the entire trip, regardless (more or less) of the number of weeks it takes.


Hans