Interstellar trade, empire and tech level

[Renaissance Man]

I have been thinking about the Long Night.

IMHO, the basic story is that political and economic ties between worlds disintegrated and interstellar trade collapsed. This weakened the technological infrastructure of individual worlds, hampering their ability to sustain merchant and naval fleets. Which in turn weakened interstellar trade... and on and on until the deepest darkness of the Long Night.

Inherent in this story is the notion that a world's TL -- that is to say, the sophistication and capacity of its technological infrastructure -- requires interstellar trade to maintain itself at a certain level.

But then there is an opposing argument. How can interstellar trade, which is inexpensive and inefficient, sustain a populous world's infrastructure at any TL, let alone 10+? What could possibly be so necessary for an advanced economy that it needs imports from another star system? Shouldn't an advanced world be able to invest that TL in some manner of self-sufficiency? I don't favour this scenario, since it belies the Long Night. But it does bear some explanation?

What does a TL10+ world need so badly that it requires interstellar trade and the military to protect that trade?

 

[aramis]

Given the relative volumes, meats are shipable for a parsec or two...

A DTon of cargo is roughly 13kL of volume or 10,000kg of mass, whichever is the better fit.

So, at Cr1000/jump, that's only Cr0.11 per bottle for 1L bottles.
Grains, at about Packed density of 0.9 or so, is about 0.1 per 1kg bag.
Meats, you'll need a refer, and that's going to rent for about KCr1/week, so you're looking at about Cr0.25/kg added. Given a roughly Cr1=2009$5, it's gonna take meats up by about the equivalent of 60¢/pound... shipping adds more to Alaska right now!

Electronics are going to be about 2,000kg per Td, counting packaging... so that's only Cr0.5/kg. A video player, packed, shipping weight 7kg. so, add about $20. pretty much the same as shipping one to Alaska by boat.

Even if we treble costs to cover getting things to/from the respective ports... it's still pretty darned reasonable to ship stuff.

 

[E.D.Quibell]

This question is one that always intregues me, because if you remove the question about resources, assume that any system has what they need and doesn't have to import anything specific, then I thnik the question is more to do with how many people (/economic activity) it takes to sustain a TL.

If we look at the world today and make a guess, I would suggest that the US have enough population to sustain it's own TL (and maybe progress it). So that would mean that all the jobs that you need to do get done to sustain the TL that we have at present. Or 350 million people can sustain a TL8 ecomony.

Now some people's MMV, and if you cut out a bit of waist i.e. do you really need 50 different types of toothpast? etc. you could probably sustain a TL8 economy with less people, some have suggested as low as 60 million, however I think this is too low and you would not be able to progress the TL at this low a population.

So if you don't mind be addressing your question with others; how large a population do you think it would take to sustaine a TL9, or a TL10 economy? how large a population do you think it would take to progress a TL9 or a TL10 economy? and how many systems do you think would have this population level in the Ramshakel Empire, if you take into consideration that the upstart Terrans managed to defeat the mighty Vilani just 400 years previously?

I look forward to your thoughts.

Best regards,

Ewan

 

[rancke]

I have been thinking about the Long Night.

IMHO, the basic story is that political and economic ties between worlds disintegrated and interstellar trade collapsed. This weakened the technological infrastructure of individual worlds, hampering their ability to sustain merchant and naval fleets. Which in turn weakened interstellar trade... and on and on until the deepest darkness of the Long Night.

Not quite. There was a recession that destroyed the economies of some worlds and tore apart the political coherence of the RoM. Increasing lawlessness caused increased losses to shipping, making the worlds that hadn't been crippled by the recession uninterested in trading at long distances. Nowhere does it say that there were no worlds capable of building ships. And, in fact, quite a few pocket empires survived throughout the Long Night. There's also mention of a few false dawns.


Hans

 

[kafka47]

Remember the OTU assumes a much greater degree of specialization than what currently exists with that specialization it leads to a monoculture of all sorts... so, yes, Sask. has the TL to produce automobiles but it is only combined technical might along with supplies from very different markets that can build that car. Autkary in the Traveller Universe is possible but the nature of sustained and more or less even TL development assumes the need for stable trade. In the Second Imperium, each polity practiced a form of autkary much as the Vilani had but without the coordinating mechanisms - so it fell apart. Then each Pocket Empire tried the same (habits die hard). Then each world. So, TL needed trade as the outlet to allow specialization to function and finally by Milieu 0 - someone applied those lessons and built an Empire. Sure, there were rivals to the 3i that had figured it out but by hook or crook or both - Cleon's vision won out.

 

[E.D.Quibell]

What does a TL10+ world need so badly that it requires interstellar trade and the military to protect that trade?

Population.

Regards,

Ewan

 

[Peter Schutze]

This question is one that always intregues me, because if you remove the question about resources, assume that any system has what they need and doesn't have to import anything specific, then I thnik the question is more to do with how many people (/economic activity) it takes to sustain a TL.

Not really. In a lot of cases its a case of the tools to build the tools to make the components for the factory.

Also how readily accessible all the raw materials are. This can have a huge effect not only on the number of people but also the output wasted to obtain the materials .... think tatooine moisture farms or Australian cattle farms for lots of input for a given raw material output

Thus I'd assign something like the trade modifiers to the pop required for a TL

If we look at the world today and make a guess, I would suggest that the US have enough population to sustain it's own TL (and maybe progress it). So that would mean that all the jobs that you need to do get done to sustain the TL that we have at present. Or 350 million people can sustain a TL8 ecomony.

except that when using the USA or any fairly advanced economy IRL as a sample you are judging based on fairly extensive trade support. I dont think any continent can really be considered an independent self sustaining TL8 economy.

 

[Icosahedron]

This question is one that always intregues me, because if you remove the question about resources, assume that any system has what they need and doesn't have to import anything specific, then I thnik the question is more to do with how many people (/economic activity) it takes to sustain a TL.

If we look at the world today and make a guess, I would suggest that the US have enough population to sustain it's own TL (and maybe progress it). So that would mean that all the jobs that you need to do get done to sustain the TL that we have at present. Or 350 million people can sustain a TL8 ecomony.

Now some people's MMV, and if you cut out a bit of waist i.e. do you really need 50 different types of toothpast? etc. you could probably sustain a TL8 economy with less people, some have suggested as low as 60 million, however I think this is too low and you would not be able to progress the TL at this low a population.

So if you don't mind be addressing your question with others; how large a population do you think it would take to sustaine a TL9, or a TL10 economy? how large a population do you think it would take to progress a TL9 or a TL10 economy? and how many systems do you think would have this population level in the Ramshakel Empire, if you take into consideration that the upstart Terrans managed to defeat the mighty Vilani just 400 years previously?

I look forward to your thoughts.

Best regards,

Ewan

I'm surprised that a fellow Brit would consider 60m (the UK pop) to be too small.
We have a long history of trade, but often it's a matter of bringing in resources that are not available locally, or are too expensive locally. I don't see lack of population as a limit to our TL. There are enough people here to support our own construction industry, automotive industry, electronics industry, etc. We're not short of people IMO, we're short of land area and resources (you might include work-ethic as a resource, but let's not go political).

I agree with your take on waste though. You could support a less wasteful TL8 community much more easily than our current world examples suggest. Even 30m might suffice.

Another thing is that as TL increases, more of the work is done by machines. You need a smaller population to maintain a TL than to create it.

 

[Renaissance Man]

Remember the OTU assumes a much greater degree of specialization than what currently exists with that specialization it leads to a monoculture of all sorts... so, yes, Sask. has the TL to produce automobiles but it is only combined technical might along with supplies from very different markets that can build that car. Autkary in the Traveller Universe is possible but the nature of sustained and more or less even TL development assumes the need for stable trade. In the Second Imperium, each polity practiced a form of autkary much as the Vilani had but without the coordinating mechanisms - so it fell apart. Then each Pocket Empire tried the same (habits die hard). Then each world. So, TL needed trade as the outlet to allow specialization to function and finally by Milieu 0 - someone applied those lessons and built an Empire. Sure, there were rivals to the 3i that had figured it out but by hook or crook or both - Cleon's vision won out.

Sorry to block quote the whole thing. I like this idea. My feeling is that while terrestrial -- or at least stellar -- autarky is possible, it becomes increasingly untenable (and unstable) as one goes to higher and higher TL. As one exceeds TL 10, there is to a certain degree some form of specialization and comparative advantage at work among a collection of worlds. This is Ricardian however, and Ricardo has his detractors.

For example -- it could merely be that stellar industrial specialization and trade are the product of Empire, rather than the other way around. That is, an Imperial system is more efficient at controlling and channeling capital toward force, and railroading subaltern worlds into its own trade system. Absent this Imperial incentive (trade with us on OUR terms or be destroyed) autarky at any TL might be tenable.

Regardless, IF we define a TL as a general capacity throughout the world to produce goods of a given TL are we implying that the world is capable of producing SOME goods... or ALL goods of that TL? Are there two version os TL 15... one autarkic, and one that is specialized and requires an interstellar import/export mechanism?

 

[E.D.Quibell]

Regardless, IF we define a TL as a general capacity throughout the world to produce goods of a given TL are we implying that the world is capable of producing SOME goods... or ALL goods of that TL? Are there two version os TL 15... one autarkic, and one that is specialized and requires an interstellar import/export mechanism?

Posibiliy, if the TL15 world stuck to industry, and let another world/system produce the food (at what ever TL) the TL15 needn't use (waist) industial capacity in producing it's own food. Allowing the Ag world to apply it's competative advantage, in order to gain high tech goods.

It could also be that past a certain TL space flight, in the terms of it's technology, is the easierst root to enable spin off technologies that allow the TL to progress. As an example (not a very good one, but I'm sure you'll get my point) the human genome project was enabled due to resurch into massivly parellel computing. Or another being without reasurch into Synchrotrons, there would be no Diamond Light Source to reasurch a whole host of unrelated sciences. Without space flight there might not be these enabeling technologies that give you access to the higher TLs.

It could well be that you can't have enough resource in a single system to enable a high TL sociaty, and you need the resources of the surounding systems, be they rare elements, or people, or interaction with spacetime across parsecs of distance in order to achive progression through the levels.

Regards,

Ewan

 

[E.D.Quibell]

except that when using the USA or any fairly advanced economy IRL as a sample you are judging based on fairly extensive trade support. I dont think any continent can really be considered an independent self sustaining TL8 economy.

I know that the US is massivly supported by trade (and the oil dollar), and I'm not saying that the US is a self sustaining TL8 ecomomy, I'm saying (guessing really) that if the rest of the population of the world disapeard, then there would be enough population in the US to sustain their economy at the current TL.

It's a guess, but to me 350 million people sounds about enough to sustain a TL8 sociaty. YMMV, and I'd like to hear how meany people you think it would be nessesary to sustain a TL8 sociaty.

Best regards,

Ewan

 

[E.D.Quibell]

I'm surprised that a fellow Brit would consider 60m (the UK pop) to be too small.
We have a long history of trade, but often it's a matter of bringing in resources that are not available locally, or are too expensive locally. I don't see lack of population as a limit to our TL. There are enough people here to support our own construction industry, automotive industry, electronics industry, etc. We're not short of people IMO, we're short of land area and resources (you might include work-ethic as a resource, but let's not go political).

The UK is a high tech sociaty, and it's a knowledge / finace based sociaty (we punch much higher than our wieght in Higher Education/Reasurch terms and London is a world finacial center), and this enables us to have a good standard of living, but I don't think we could sustain a TL8 sociaty.

We don't make our own cars, or computers, or rockets, or nucluar power stations, or TVs, or satalight boxes, or shoes, or cloaths, or toys, or food, or electronics, or ships, or planes etc etc etc. Now while we make some, I'll grant you, we don't make enough, not nearly enough, and we are lacking in expertises in mayor areas of a TL8 sociaty. The UK specialises, and trades with the rest of the world for the rest.

I certainly take your point about land and reasources getting in our way, but even if we had these, I still don't think 60 million is enough. TL7 maybe, but that's another matter.

I agree with your take on waste though. You could support a less wasteful TL8 community much more easily than our current world examples suggest. Even 30m might suffice.

You'll find that the waste is in those industries that it's easy to produce in, and the lower Tech stuff. You'll find there isn't a lot of waist in say space technology, or Large Halon Colliders. And while you could remove a lot of the lower level waist it's a dominishing returne. I would suggest that 30 million population wouldn't be enough to produce the number a academics needed to be able to nothing but learn what they need to learn in order to sustain the current tech level.

Another thing is that as TL increases, more of the work is done by machines. You need a smaller population to maintain a TL than to create it.

Agreed, it's far easier to sustain a TL once you get there than it is to get there. That's why I'm suggesting that 350 million is enough to sustain TL8. I'd guess it took in order of 2 billion people to achive TL8, but it would take considerably less to sustain it.

Best regards,

Ewan

 

[Renaissance Man]

It could also be that past a certain TL space flight, in the terms of it's technology, is the easierst root to enable spin off technologies that allow the TL to progress. As an example (not a very good one, but I'm sure you'll get my point) the human genome project was enabled due to resurch into massivly parellel computing. Or another being without reasurch into Synchrotrons, there would be no Diamond Light Source to reasurch a whole host of unrelated sciences. Without space flight there might not be these enabeling technologies that give you access to the higher TLs.

Ah very good. A good point. Spinoff technologies are already a primary incentive for government funded space programs... and new technologies often have military applications.

But here I am seeing Empire again as the primary driving force behind interstellar trade rather than the reverse. A developing society dominates the stars because they are a "contested space"... different polities race to control it not so much because it is initially profitable, but merely because to neglect it is to leave it to ones enemies. Control over orbital space is a singular military advantage, and thus a space program is a way of ensuring ones own political independence or dominance.

And all this leaves the Long Night unexplained. If military motives were primary in establishing interstellar trade rather than technological necessity, than the Long Night would not have represented such a dramatic regression, nor have lasted as long. Another empire would quickly have risen to replace the last.

The Long Night has an obvious historical analogue -- the Dark Ages. How did the Roman Empire, after having such a robust system of trade and political control, simply collapse to the point where even its permanent infrastructure (roads, currency) was left to rot? We can see very clearly how villages and towns became armed encampments, built to withstand marauders rather than for the convenience of the inhabitants... how travel and trade became increasingly dangerous and rare... how kingdoms shrank in stature, regressing technologically and in terms of the sophistication of their organization.

It could well be that you can't have enough resource in a single system to enable a high TL sociaty, and you need the resources of the surounding system

Hmmm. One could easily imagine that there is an uneven distribution of some resources key to technological development that force interstellar trade. What are these rare substances? Something as important, and as unevenly distributed as oil is in RL, for instance, would be an ideal incentive for interstellar expansion, trade and empire. But it need not be so simple. There could be a host of limited resources that are used in various capacities for critical advanced technologies like gravatics, fusion, molecular engineering and nanotech (if you use such), photonics, etc. that are scattered throughout the galaxy.

 

[aramis]

Trade requires the following:
Both sides having sufficient amounts of surplus to be able to trade
Both sides having a sufficient difference in value to make the cost of travel less than the cost of local versions.
Both sides being aware of the surplusses at the other end of the trade.
At least one side having the ability to move the goods to be traded.
The goods being able to survive the trip in condition acceptable to the other end.
neither side suffering cultural, religious, political, ethical, or perception impediments that preclude trade with the other side.

If these are met, trade is gonna happen.

Note that value includes having demand for the item... no demand, no value.

 

[Icosahedron]

We don't make our own cars, or computers, or rockets, or nucluar power stations, or TVs, or satalight boxes, or shoes, or cloaths, or toys, or food, or electronics, or ships, or planes etc etc etc. Now while we make some, I'll grant you, we don't make enough, not nearly enough, and we are lacking in expertises in mayor areas of a TL8 sociaty. The UK specialises, and trades with the rest of the world for the rest.

We don't, but we could. We specialise and trade because it's cheaper and easier, and in the process we have lost (or chosen not to develop) some skills/expertise. We have adopted our current system because it's the best in the current situation, but if that situation changed, all the other nations vanished and we had free access to the planet's resources, I reckon we have enough population to maintain TL8. We might even have enough to create it.
Of course, government efficiency is a major factor. Many of the more advanced nations on Earth today are struggling under the excesses of a bureaucratic democracy. A feudal technocracy would make a significant difference to our potential. I shudder to think how much duplicated effort, pointless activity, and bureaucratic nonsense hampers our current efforts, not to mention the burden of politics, religion and war.

I certainly take your point about land and reasources getting in our way, but even if we had these, I still don't think 60 million is enough. TL7 maybe, but that's another matter.

Well, it depends on your definition of TLs. Personally, I view our current state as TL7. To me, TL8 is Grav, fusion and the Hydrogen Economy. YMMV.

You'll find that the waste is in those industries that it's easy to produce in, and the lower Tech stuff. You'll find there isn't a lot of waist in say space technology, or Large Halon Colliders. And while you could remove a lot of the lower level waist it's a dominishing returne. I would suggest that 30 million population wouldn't be enough to produce the number a academics needed to be able to nothing but learn what they need to learn in order to sustain the current tech level.

So how many different countries are each spending countless billions duplicating each other's spacecraft and colliders? If that's not waste...

Once you factor in some efficiency, I think the numbers will drop. I agree we couldn't do it with our current setup, but that's a different matter. You have to figure whether you're talking about TL or Culture (to borrow a term from Pocket Empires). I'm imagining a much more frugal 60m society than 2009 UK. How many people are employed filling our wardrobes, jewellery boxes, mantel shelves and china cabinets with stuff we don't need? The absence of all that frippery wouldn't diminish the TL.

What is the question? Are we asking how many people are needed as a minimum to sustain a TL7/8 capability for spacefaring survival, or are we asking how many people are needed to sustain an indolent, self-indulgent, capitalist, democratic bureaucracy whose academics can't get work because they don't possess this year's trendy health and safety certificates?

Assuming that only half that 60m population is of working age, somewhere near 10% of the UK workforce is unemployed FFS! And I reckon at least 4 times that number are employed in activities that are not vital to maintaining TL. Of course we're not self-sufficient; we're a nation of toymakers and paper-shufflers.
Today's Western nations are really not a good example to use.

[NB. Emphatic remarks are a result of incredulity with the wastefulness of Western 'Civilization' in general and are directed at no political entity in particular and certainly not at any member of this board]

Agreed, it's far easier to sustain a TL once you get there than it is to get there. That's why I'm suggesting that 350 million is enough to sustain TL8. I'd guess it took in order of 2 billion people to achive TL8, but it would take considerably less to sustain it.

Best regards,

Ewan

Again, I'm not sure that anywhere near 2 billion was actually necessary.

 

[BlackBat242]

Consider that moving from TL 3 to TL 7 was basically the product of Italy, France, Germany & Britain, with the addition of the US from TL 5 on... and that TL 7 was achieved by 1970... when the US had a resident population of 203,302,031 (US Census)... so perhaps 500 million total for the tech effort.

Virtually none of the tech effort from 3 up was contributed by South America, Africa, Asia, or the peripheral nations of Europe... Asia was the main mover from TL 1-3, but this was again with a far smaller population than currently exists in India, China, & the middle east.

 

[Icosahedron]

Consider that moving from TL 3 to TL 7 was basically the product of Italy, France, Germany & Britain, with the addition of the US from TL 5 on... and that TL 7 was achieved by 1970... when the US had a resident population of 203,302,031 (US Census)... so perhaps 500 million total for the tech effort.

And they were certainly not working in a spirit of collaboration and mutual support...

 

[shadowdragon]

Hmmm. One could easily imagine that there is an uneven distribution of some resources key to technological development that force interstellar trade. What are these rare substances? Something as important, and as unevenly distributed as oil is in RL, for instance, would be an ideal incentive for interstellar expansion, trade and empire. But it need not be so simple. There could be a host of limited resources that are used in various capacities for critical advanced technologies like gravatics, fusion, molecular engineering and nanotech (if you use such), photonics, etc. that are scattered throughout the galaxy.

Iridium? maybe iridium is required for the production of grav, fusion, jump drives etc. that would almost require significant resource imports for those items it is as rare throughout the Imperium as here on Earth.

 

[rancke]

Don't forget that Darrian went to TL16 with only a handful of outposts and Gram produced a starship with a population of 100,000 (Though the last did require a repressive government totally dedicated to such an outcome).

Also, various pocket empires maintained TL 9, 10, 11, and 12 during the Long Night.


Hans

 

[kafka47]

Sorry to block quote the whole thing. I like this idea. My feeling is that while terrestrial -- or at least stellar -- autarky is possible, it becomes increasingly untenable (and unstable) as one goes to higher and higher TL. As one exceeds TL 10, there is to a certain degree some form of specialization and comparative advantage at work among a collection of worlds. This is Ricardian however, and Ricardo has his detractors.

Don't worry, I quite like Ricardo just feel he never went far enough...certainly you are right in the belief that technical progress does force a specialization but it also puts worlds on the hook for an infrastructure that they have to support until robotics can free up the population. Autarky becomes less an option also when dealing with the Capital fix - the propensity of capital to find profitable venues in luxuries or fictious capital - like financial instruments, intellectual property, virtual space, etc. All these mount as the TL increases.

It is not a necessary outcome from Empire but certainly would soldify empire. As capital from these worlds would invest in others to raise their standard of living but not do the work involve to make it possible. The real world example, of course, is China and the United States, the average American has recieved a cornopia of goods from a Less Developed Nation at very affordable prices thereby raising its living standard and TL to develop new gadgets which in turn are off-shored raising the standard of living of the less developed country and overall TL.

Regardless, IF we define a TL as a general capacity throughout the world to produce goods of a given TL are we implying that the world is capable of producing SOME goods... or ALL goods of that TL? Are there two version os TL 15... one autarkic, and one that is specialized and requires an interstellar import/export mechanism?

DGP and others break down TL nicely in World Builders Guide. TL is the shorthand for the capacity of that world to sustain that level of goods/services.