Originally posted by rancke:
E]I agree with most of your post, Bill, but not this part. Norris may suspect that the Zhos won't come, but he can't know it for sure.
Hans,
You're correct, he can't know for sure. However,
IM very extremely HO Norris does
suspect and Norris is a
gambler.
I strongly believe that the Imperium 'knows' what we know. They can look back at the history of the Frontier Wars and infer the same Zhodani grand strategic plan that we do. The references in the Zhodani Alien Module about the Consulate already being at a size the Zhodani feel they can effectively govern aren't in some secret GM's section, they're part of the main text. The Imperium should know about that Zhodani opinion, although it certainly shouldn't choose to rely on it.
The Imperium can see the same policy in action along the rest of the Consulate's borders too. From the Extents out to the Far Frontiers, thoughtful Imperial analysts and observers can see a Consulate that isn't expanding and hasn't expanded in millennia. It may meddle with the myriad of small polities beyond it's borders, but the Consulate only meddles.
So,
IMVEHO the Imperium knows about the Zhodani desire for a 'neutral' zone and has probably known about it since the time of the 3rd Frontier War. The disagreement between the Delphine/Santanocheev faction and the Norris faction wasn't about what the Zhodani war aims were but rather about how the Zhodani were planning on achieving those aims. The Delphine/Santanocheev faction thought all they had to do was defend the Jewell salient from capture. Norris realized that the Zhodani were planning on forcing the Imperium to choose between Rhylanor and the Jewell salient. Both knew the goal, they only argued over the means.
I think it's perfectly plausible that he would order all the regular fleets to congregate in Vilis an Jewell and order the whole domain on a war footing.
Agreed. However, I believe that Norris would have gambled with the scheduled reinforcements for those fleets. He has the example of the first two Frontier Wars to go by. After a losing war against the Consulate, both Plankwell and Arbellatra still left the Marches taking substantial forces with them. Indeed, as the information regarding Caranda indicates, Arbellatra's main concern was the suppression of disloyal Imperial elements and not a rematch with the Zhodani. Norris is less than a decade past his war with the Consulate, a war which he, unlike Plankwell and Arbellatra, actually won.
Assuming that Norris knows what we know and assuming that Norris is a gambler - and I think his actions during the early stages of the 5th Frontier War can support that - I believe that Norris would have diverted some reinforcements away from the Jewell/Vilis fleet concentration and towards the Aslan/Vargr fronts.
Let's face it, as written the Alien Incursions are implausible idiocy. Remove the IN regular fleets and Corridor could have still held out. The same holds true for the Trojan Reach. Realistically, Norris wouldn't have been forced to send reinforcements to either front because, according to
MT's own descriptions in the
Rebellion Sourcebook neither Vargr or
ihatei could muster enough power to truly threaten either region.
Even if we allow that the Vargr and Aslan invasions did occur, Norris would have had enough regular forces available in Deneb and the trailing part of the Marches to successfully counterattack against both of the invaders
and still partially reinforce the fleets watching the Zhodani.
The place where the story breaks for me is...
I very much agree with that. Even if he didn't divert any reinforcements, war production would have given him the fleets he needed to throw the Aslan out of the Reaches and the fleets he needed to clear Corridor of the Vargr well before Dulinor's Coronation Fleet reached Omnicron.
When in a machiavellian mood, I can
almost see Norris allowing Corridor to remain in Vargr hands and thus provide his Domain with a nifty buffer zone that keeps the Rebellion at bay. (Although I cannot see how the Vargr even took it in the first place.)
Have fun,
Bill
