A number to chew on. Instantaneous Ship Population.

[infojunky]

Every morning as I wait for my meds I find I ponder Maths.

Today it is the Instantaneous population of ships from the encounter tables in CT.

In any given system when a Ship comes out of Jump the population of known ships in that system is 1.7 +/-.

So one could extend that to say in that moment there is approx. Number of systems times 1.7 ships in that counted region. (#sys*1.7)

This gives a floor number of the number of ships that can exist in that moment. Take the entirety of the Imperium as a counted region there are 18,700 ships in the same frame as our example case.

Ok, not considered is the length of the counting period in question, the number of ships on the ground, in jump. Or heck outside of the detection range of our case subject.

Just some random thoughts.

 

[kilemall]

Er yikes.

I would take that more as ship within range to interact.

Since most ship movements are from planet to jump or jump to planet, that’s one side of the planet and major approach. There is at least another approach on the other side of the planet, so at least 1.7 ships on the other side. Double your Imperium count.

The encounter table shows ships in flight, not ships on the ground. Given at least the one week cycle, 7x as many ships on the ground/station during any given 24 hour period.

Ships also have serious momentum and range issues such that even if they fire on each other, they won’t be able to match course for boarding for hours.

Finally, this is encounters not scenery. To me the encounter table is determining interaction, not total.

To illustrate, consider the Animal Encounters tables as a comparison point.

We don’t assume that there are only 12 flyers on the planet because the relevant table only has them once. Or shouldn’t assume the roll is the only animal group around, only the ones closest enough to interact.

Or sapient random encounters for that matter. The only 6 thugs with blades and jack armor on planet, multiplied by the worlds of the Imperium? Likely not.


The encounter table is probability of encounter power/org, not a useful population model.

So in all three cases I would assume background ships, animals and sapients around, just only these in range and potentially interested in interacting with the characters at that specific moment.

 

[infojunky]

Er yikes.

I would take that more as ship within range to interact.

Well, Yes. Note I did say it was the Floor number based only on a ship and that chart.

Since most ship movements are from planet to jump or jump to planet, that’s one side of the planet and major approach. There is at least another approach on the other side of the planet, so at least 1.7 ships on the other side. Double your Imperium count.

Yes, that is reasonable, but the evidence as presented only supports my initial state.

Mind you that it is open to addition, hence why I started with a very basic approximation.

The encounter table shows ships in flight, not ships on the ground. Given at least the one week cycle, 7x as many ships on the ground/station during any given 24 hour period.

See, now I can accept that, do you suggest metric?

A parked ship per, Port Class? Some divisor of plantary Population? Probably one that factors both in?

Try this, 5 for A or B port, 3.5 for a C port, 1 per D port... Those multiplied by the Population code?

Looking at the above you might Construct a Traffic metric as well, But that would speak to the initial state of the first question.

Finally, this is encounters not scenery. To me the encounter table is determining interaction, not total.

I didn't stipulate a total, just a place to start counting from.

The encounter table is probability of encounter power/org, not a useful population model.

I disagree, as I indicated it gives a floor population, that only consists of ships entering a system at a single moment. I didn't define even a time frame. Nor did really include anything outside of the sensor range of the given ship the model is based on.

All of the model is, is a base one can start counting from as we expand the metric that covers the projected starship population.

 

[kilemall]

Strictly focusing on a simple approach and not some Pocket Empires or GURPS Trader economic sim, I would be just interested in a quick dirty population mechanic for reffing color and options. Not even interested in defining the Merchant Marine, pirate and patrol pop.

The principle remains the encounter table is defining what ship(s) that are potential helpers, opponents or victims. That means ships within reasonable weapons range and potential for matching courses.

While a reasonable sim could easily define 70-100 ships/craft in flight around a pop 8+ starport A, I want a playable system that doesn’t require naval ops bridges and a play aid computer to just track on the traffic.

So just a few more ships to roll for flavor and options. These would be at least 500000 km away, and on courses and vectors that makes an encounter unlikely.

They would be there to possibly render assistance hours later after considerable burns, pass along comms, pick the bones of a kill, or pursue revenge. Once a few friends and enemies develop, razzing of a friendly, competitive or threatening nature.

1d6-3 extra ships in flight, with the following DMs-

UWP Value	DM
Starport A	+1
Starport C	-1
Starport D-X	-2
Pop 3-	-2
Pop 4-5	-1
Pop 7-8	+1
Pop 9+	+2
Trade/Xboat Route	+1

If there are 2+ extra ships in flight, the second ship will be a small craft.

If there are 3+ extra ships in flight and the world is starport A/B and on a route, the third ship will be a BCS- 1d6, 1-5 commercial/colonist, 6 warship.

Otherwise roll other extra ships as per regular DMs.

Interesting results with the 1977 rules, more of the extra ships around an A starport are likely to be pirates and change course for easy opportunities.

 

[Condottiere]

You have to categorize it into jump and non jump.

Non jump there would be lots around, such as space stations, satellites and connectors.

Jump would be whether there's anything worth visiting here, or worth going to.

 

[infojunky]

You have to categorize it into jump and non jump.

Non jump there would be lots around, such as space stations, satellites and connectors.

Jump would be whether there's anything worth visiting here, or worth going to.

Ok, then suggest a metric.

 

[Condottiere]

Satellites are more likely dependent on planetary population, modified by balkanization, and political tension.

Space stations by technological level and industrialization, as industries and populations push outwards.

Connectors by aforesaid, and human populated centres and industrial bases in the rest of the system.

Then you have patrol ships and probes keeping an eye on everything.

Interstellar travel would a nominal number, just to keep in contact with each other; after that, it would depend on military and commercial interests.

Private spacecraft on how many can afford them.

 

[Condottiere]

Though by Traveller rules, once you have a spacecraft, as long as you regularly maintain it, it could be around for centuries.

So it could be accumulative.

 

[infojunky]

Ok, working on the Traffic metric I need to revise the base state.

Thus working from a revised initial ship count based on the point of entering the system and engaging the encounter table that an Instantaneous population should be 3.14 Starships per system. I.e. the number of potential ships arriving based on the various likelihoods of trade routes existing. Imperium total in that moment would be 34,540 Starships.

Note in system traffic, and system population metrics are still haven't been addressed. Nor has the parking metric.

 

[mike wightman]

Aren't the encounter tables for ships the PC vessel any end up interacting with rather then number of ships total? Also the Third Imperium setting has lots of x-boats and tenders in every system on the x-boat route.

 

[Enoki]

I would add to the number if there is a naval or scout base present. I'd also add to it, for non-jump ships, as population and economic power of the system increases.

 

[Enoki]

Ok, working on the Traffic metric I need to revise the base state.

Thus working from a revised initial ship count based on the point of entering the system and engaging the encounter table that an Instantaneous population should be 3.14 Starships per system. I.e. the number of potential ships arriving based on the various likelihoods of trade routes existing. Imperium total in that moment would be 34,540 Starships.

Note in system traffic, and system population metrics are still haven't been addressed. Nor has the parking metric.

So, there should be pi ships in a system...?

 

[aramis]

Every morning as I wait for my meds I find I ponder Maths.

Today it is the Instantaneous population of ships from the encounter tables in CT.

In any given system when a Ship comes out of Jump the population of known ships in that system is 1.7 +/-.

So one could extend that to say in that moment there is approx. Number of systems times 1.7 ships in that counted region. (#sys*1.7)

This gives a floor number of the number of ships that can exist in that moment. Take the entirety of the Imperium as a counted region there are 18,700 ships in the same frame as our example case.

Ok, not considered is the length of the counting period in question, the number of ships on the ground, in jump. Or heck outside of the detection range of our case subject.

Just some random thoughts.

The basic issue is that the rolls cover typically one day at either end of a jump...
so covers 1/14 of the actual ships. That makes it 20... then we halve it for shared, so 10 ships per world.

One caveat - that's for one of the two editions of CT - ship encounters changed between 77 and 81.

 

[infojunky]

So, there should be pi ships in a system...?

I had that thought too...

 

[infojunky]

The basic issue is that the rolls cover typically one day at either end of a jump...
so covers 1/14 of the actual ships. That makes it 20... then we halve it for shared, so 10 ships per world.

To be clear I was looking for the basic floor number to start counting from, not the final number.

I was wondering where the minimum limit was.

The 10 to 20 isn't out of line, I just don't have a clear metric for anything above the minimum.

One caveat - that's for one of the two editions of CT - ship encounters changed between 77 and 81.

Yes, but the generalized numbers were in the same range.

 

[kilemall]

I would add to the number if there is a naval or scout base present. I'd also add to it, for non-jump ships, as population and economic power of the system increases.

I covered the small craft part but don’t want ‘accurate’ modeling for ref diminishing gameplay returns on effort- different then sim model musings.

Base is a good point, I would probably add a plus one for those.

 

[kilemall]

I guess the other thing to figure out is how many ships are berthed. As a quick and dirty, maybe roll the number of ships again for ships/small craft that can sortie in 12 hours, rolling again for each 12 hour increment.

 

[aramis]

The minimum is the 2 days worth in flight, and 5 days worth on the ground. of the 14 days.
Tho' to be pedantic, the two editions are not that close.

Encounter chance, 1981 edition

Port	Bases	81 Enc Chance	81 In Sys if Daily	77 enc chance
A	Both	35/36	6.80555	35/36
A	Navy	33/36	6.41666	35/36
A	Scout	30/36	5.8333	35/36
A	Neither	26/36	5.0555	35/36
B	Both	35/36	6.80555	30/36
B	Navy	33/36	6.31666	30/36
B	Scout	30/36	5.8333	30/36
B	none	26/36	5.0555	30/36
C	None	21/36	4.08333	21/36
C	Scout	26/36	5.0555	21/36
D	none	15/36	2.91666	10/6
E	none	10/36	1.9444	3/36
X	none	10/36	1.9444 ??	0/36

The in sys counts landed.
Differences of note

• 77 does not adjust for bases
  81 does.
• 77 has reduced traffic at B ports
  81 does not - it's the same as A ports
• 77 has no encounters at X ports
  81 has encounters at the same rate as E ports
• different ratios of ship types (not shown above)

 

[infojunky]

The minimum is the 2 days worth in flight, and 5 days worth on the ground. of the 14 days.
Tho' to be pedantic, the two editions are not that close.

Actually the distribution doesn't change much between them from my initial estimate.

Honestly I just did a thumbnail count for the first go around. Today I plugged in the number for port distribution and the estimate went down from 0.7 to 0.6ish. The chance of a base was a very minor bump that didn't survive rounding.

But your point was taken, so I looked.

The 3.14 still stands.

The core number now is based on the likelihood of an encounter based on the distribution of port classes. Times the potential number of Trade routes present to x system. Thus traffic is quantified. At the Moment of the Encounter Roll.

Ships in system and docked/parked is still a metric to be figured out.

Again to be clear this is Instantaneous population at single defined moment. At its very best it is just a place to Start Counting.

 

[Grav_Moped]

So, there should be pi ships in a system...?

I had that thought too...

Pie ship:

File:Type-S-class-Thomas-Peters-Challenge-28-Part-1 13-May-2019a.jpg - Traveller

wiki.travellerrpg.com

Sorry, am on phone and couldn't patch in the image itself.