OTU Only: What Kind of Ships Does Traveller Need More of?

[flykiller]

as long as you are moving from higher tech to lower tech each step you can make a living

surely the ruleset recognizes also moving between industrial/agricultural as being profitable? that combined with tech waterfall there's quite a few routes available.

 

[warwizard]

of course AKI <--> Glisten is profitable both directions, but the big money is from GLISTEN to AKI.

Assuming you can't get a foot in that market due to most of the AKI GLISTEN trade is already contracted by bulk haulers, where else can you make money, what ship designs maximize the profitability along a given route?

Just like real estate, Trade routes are all about location, location, and location.

T4 for instance uses the concept of generic trade goods, setting a price of the goods with modifiers for trade codes, star port and tech level. (GLISTIN trade goods cost CR 1500 per displacement ton and carry A-15 IN HI AS SC trade codes when you go to sell that at AKI A-10 IN HI you get a base of CR 5000 + 4000 CR due to trade codes, + 50% due to higher tech so CR 13500 base sale price. (With a +4 broker
code/
1/36 X .9 -20% -cost = (13,500 X.9 X.8 -1500)/36 = 228.33
2/36 X 1 -20% -cost = 2X(13,500 X.8 -1500)/36 = 516.66
3/36 X 1.1 -20% -cost = 3X(13,500 X 1.1 X.8 -1500)/36 = 865
4/35 X 1.2 -20% -cost = 4X(13,500 X 1.2 X.8 -1500)/36 = 1273.55
5/36 X 1.3 -20% -cost = 5X(13,500 X 1.3 X.8 -1500)/36 = 1741.66
6/36 X 1.5 -20% -cost = 6X(13,500 X 1.5 X.8 -1500)/36 = 2450
5/36 X 1.7 -20% -cost = 5X(13,500 X 1.7 X.8 -1500)/36 = 2341.66
4/36 X 2 -20% -cost = 4X(13,500 X 2 X.8 -1500)/36 = 2400
3/36 X 3 -20% -cost = 3X(13,500 X 3 X.8 -1500)/36 = 2575
3/36 X 4 -20% -cost = 3X(13,500 X 4 X.8 -1500)/36 = 3475
Sum = 17866.86 (A-10)CR/Ton on average
/code
Of course the Ref is welcome to impose a 25% reduction due to the value of the AKI currency
ICR 13400 profit per ton after conversion to IMP Cr

 

[Iracundus]

I think only GURPS Far Trader really took the Law of One Price into consideration to avoid golden trading combos persisting indefinitely. I suppose though that makes it really hard for PCs to make their mortgage payments regularly.

 

[aramis]

I think only GURPS Far Trader really took the Law of One Price into consideration to avoid golden trading combos persisting indefinitely. I suppose though that makes it really hard for PCs to make their mortgage payments regularly.

Some long term trade routes made consistent big money for centuries, many for decades. (Look up Triangular Trade. Or the British East India Co.) Or, until more recently, the silk and tea trades in Japan and China.


It's also not like the Law of One Price is actually a natural law, at least not in the way it's presented in GTFT. It is at best an idealization.

 

[Iracundus]

Some long term trade routes made consistent big money for centuries, many for decades. (Look up Triangular Trade. Or the British East India Co.) Or, until more recently, the silk and tea trades in Japan and China.


It's also not like the Law of One Price is actually a natural law, at least not in the way it's presented in GTFT. It is at best an idealization.

All those examples were by the time period equivalent of mega corporations, the rich, or traders with government support. The scrappy lone wolf free trader would not be able to make killings for long before somebody bigger sniffed out the profit and moved in to muscle them out of the way and take advantage of things like scale and reliable shipping timetables. If there is that much demand, planetary governments or corporations that are purchasing are going to want reliable supply and big quantities, and not depend on the small cargo holds of unreliable free traders.

It is a good enough reason to prevent players from becoming rich beyond the dreams of avarice just repeating runs between golden pair trading worlds (or similar combos). The same issue persists in trading models in many computer games. Realistically that smelter is not going to be interested in buying the player's cargo of ore that he's selling from the back of his ship as they would have secured a regular bulk supplier.

 

[Enoki]

I don't think trade is based solely, or even mainly on technology. Rather, it is going to be based on world A having a product that world B (and possibly the rest of the alphabet) wants. There will be all sorts of niche markets in existence where some planet produces something unique to it, or better than anyone else does, and that means the product is in demand.
Then there's diversity in products offered. Richer worlds will try to import a wider range of products simply because they have the customer base and demand for them.

All of that makes longer range trade a significant possibility.

Another reason for it is larger companies will want to sell to, well, everybody they can. I can easily see a particular system in a subsector becoming the distribution hub for other nearby worlds and the locus of large, long-range freighters of large size that regularly haul in masses of goods from far away for further distribution locally.
Today ports and railways operate that way on Earth. The shorter range distribution is handled by trucking. It's the same principle.

Smaller ships are going to have to fit into that model as independent truckers would. You have a few runs you make regularly for pay. You don't get rich and if you won't do it, somebody else will. The idea of speculative trading for the most part is the stuff of fiction and movies.

 

[Iracundus]

I don't think trade is based solely, or even mainly on technology. Rather, it is going to be based on world A having a product that world B (and possibly the rest of the alphabet) wants. There will be all sorts of niche markets in existence where some planet produces something unique to it, or better than anyone else does, and that means the product is in demand.
Then there's diversity in products offered. Richer worlds will try to import a wider range of products simply because they have the customer base and demand for them.

All of that makes longer range trade a significant possibility.

Another reason for it is larger companies will want to sell to, well, everybody they can. I can easily see a particular system in a subsector becoming the distribution hub for other nearby worlds and the locus of large, long-range freighters of large size that regularly haul in masses of goods from far away for further distribution locally.
Today ports and railways operate that way on Earth. The shorter range distribution is handled by trucking. It's the same principle.

Smaller ships are going to have to fit into that model as independent truckers would. You have a few runs you make regularly for pay. You don't get rich and if you won't do it, somebody else will. The idea of speculative trading for the most part is the stuff of fiction and movies.

Since the shipping cost is based on unit volume, as the distance increases only compact high value items will realistically be traded. So we are talking exotic/rare items or high technology items (which have a lot of value added) instead of unprocessed or bulk goods.

With many worlds not truly self sufficient at high TL or even habitable without imports, any disruption to close suppliers of bulk goods could result in economic, TL, or complete societal collapse. Sure, there may be an agricultural world far away that might still have food for export, but the long shipping time, and high cost would make it prohibitively expensive for all but the upper class of a dying world. Similarly high cost raw materials or intermediary materials could effectively bring high TL manufacturing to a grinding halt as it becomes unprofitable.

The Hard Times would probably be one of the best times for speculative trading as the regular shipping lines get disrupted.

 

[warwizard]

So the point is the banks want a trade route analysis on any ship before they will build it with a loan. They will build ANYTHING if you pay 100% up front before anything is even designed, but not if you want a loan, there you have to submit a business plan that shows that you are making 50% to 100% over your expenses on an annualized basis. I would expect that you have to go into the bank with contracts in hand for the first year's operation of freight or what it is you are making money with.

So the trade and speculation worksheet I posted would be done for every port of call on your annual route, at the end of which you have a fairly reliable estimate of the incomes you can expect and your crew and ship operational costs and a set aside for repairing damage the ref may impose.

Once you have the relative values of each of high, mid, low, cargo, mail, and speculation for each jump you can make, you can pick and chose the configuration that maximizes your profit for each jump.

 

[aramis]

So the point is the banks want a trade route analysis on any ship before they will build it with a loan. They will build ANYTHING if you pay 100% up front before anything is even designed, but not if you want a loan, there you have to submit a business plan that shows that you are making 50% to 100% over your expenses on an annualized basis. I would expect that you have to go into the bank with contracts in hand for the first year's operation of freight or what it is you are making money with.

Commercial fishermen in Alaska, it's more like 25% over annual expenses. But you pretty much have to have the boat or the permit to get financing on the other, and both are collateral on the loan...

The state doesn't even require that, and to be honest, at ≤4%, it's a steal of a deal.... but they only do refi.

 

[Enoki]

Since the shipping cost is based on unit volume, as the distance increases only compact high value items will realistically be traded. So we are talking exotic/rare items or high technology items (which have a lot of value added) instead of unprocessed or bulk goods.

Not completely true. There are economies of scale. For example, you have a company that runs a single ship on a longer run into its end point say once every two or three months (8 to 16 weeks) bringing in a mass of goods because the ship is large.
Then it makes running that single ship, and just a few others like it, on that run. It also makes higher jump numbers more economic. If your few ships are importing say 75% of the goods on a particular line to a distribution terminus it makes sense.
Railways work this way. They can run a ton of goods for pennies a mile. Where they make their money is in running literally millions of tons thousands of miles.
So, let's say you have a 50,000 ton merchant and it brings in a 4 month supply (16 weeks) of grav vehicles for the civilian market for a subsector to a single distribution point. These are then hauled by smaller ships to the various worlds where they're sold.

With many worlds not truly self sufficient at high TL or even habitable without imports, any disruption to close suppliers of bulk goods could result in economic, TL, or complete societal collapse. Sure, there may be an agricultural world far away that might still have food for export, but the long shipping time, and high cost would make it prohibitively expensive for all but the upper class of a dying world. Similarly high cost raw materials or intermediary materials could effectively bring high TL manufacturing to a grinding halt as it becomes unprofitable.

The Hard Times would probably be one of the best times for speculative trading as the regular shipping lines get disrupted.

Trade on a system and subsector scale pretty much does in the whole idea of Free and Far trading as a way to make money unless you are in a real backwater or fringe sector. Where these small ships make money is moving goods and people between a distribution point and systems that simply don't support a larger amount of goods than a few of these ships can deliver on a regular basis. Basically, they are independent truckers working on a contract or on a, more or less, regular route and are preferred by large corporations to using their own ships and having to take the risks and cost of running the ships themselves.

 

[Cryton]

Anything non-military. More merchants, a few big enough to re create "Aliens" in, lab-ships, yachts, great and small, BIG liners, how about instead of ships, the floor plans for some orbital stations, or mining platforms. An updated Seeker tender.

 

[Iracundus]

Not completely true. There are economies of scale. For example, you have a company that runs a single ship on a longer run into its end point say once every two or three months (8 to 16 weeks) bringing in a mass of goods because the ship is large.
Then it makes running that single ship, and just a few others like it, on that run. It also makes higher jump numbers more economic. If your few ships are importing say 75% of the goods on a particular line to a distribution terminus it makes sense.
Railways work this way. They can run a ton of goods for pennies a mile. Where they make their money is in running literally millions of tons thousands of miles.
So, let's say you have a 50,000 ton merchant and it brings in a 4 month supply (16 weeks) of grav vehicles for the civilian market for a subsector to a single distribution point. These are then hauled by smaller ships to the various worlds where they're sold.

Whether one goes by the cost per parsec or per jump model, at some point if the cost of shipping will exceed the value of the good if we are talking bulk or unprocessed goods. Large freight companies might be able to benefit somewhat from scale or long term contracts but there will still be a point where the cost of shipping exceeds the value of the good itself. There is little reason therefore for someone to import such common bulk goods from far away unless there is absolutely no other alternative.

Higher value goods, like grav vehicles or other high tech stuff, on the other hand could still potentially be worthwhile to ship long distances as shipping costs would still be only a fraction of the total value of the good.

Trade on a system and subsector scale pretty much does in the whole idea of Free and Far trading as a way to make money unless you are in a real backwater or fringe sector. Where these small ships make money is moving goods and people between a distribution point and systems that simply don't support a larger amount of goods than a few of these ships can deliver on a regular basis. Basically, they are independent truckers working on a contract or on a, more or less, regular route and are preferred by large corporations to using their own ships and having to take the risks and cost of running the ships themselves.

This is known. GURPS Far Trader actually addresses this in their trade model. Even the busiest trade routes don't have that much additional freight volume for free traders because the routes are high volume enough to make it worthwhile for more large ships to move in and muscle out the free traders. Free traders therefore make up a larger portion of the trade volume only for those routes where there is some traffic but not so much as to attract heavy mega freighter traffic.

 

[Whipsnade]

An updated Seeker tender.

Oooh... really good suggestion...

From S:7 Traders and Gunboats, page 15:

In some areas, an exploratory cruiser of perhaps 10,000 tons will carry a squadron of ten or more scout/couriers. As the cruiser passes through the area, individual scout/couriers will range ahead or to the flanks and perform actual data gathering missions.

 

[mike wightman]

An excellent suggestion, a ship you could build adventures and/or a campaign around.

 

[Whipsnade]

An excellent suggestion, a ship you could build adventures and/or a campaign around.

Exactly.

This would be one of the situations already discussed when the "ship" is more of a "location". There's no real need to deck plan the entire thing. A diagram or schematic with certain locations detailed would be enough.

It's also one of those situations where the much discussed "One player/Multiple PCs" play style might be apt.

It might be worthwhile thumbing through WBH, GT:FI, and others to get a handle on "typical" Traveller scouting and survey jobs. IIRC, there are even some detailed survey rules in CT's Imperial Fringe.

 

[dmccoy1693]

how about instead of ships, the floor plans for some orbital stations, or mining platforms.

I've been working on those. The first comes out Jan.

 

[sfchbryan]

More lower TL ships.

I'd like more ships that actually match the general TL of the sector the players are playing in. I'd also like more interplanetary ships. One Small Step was probably the most useful article I ever saw published in Challenge Magazine.

I am always amused by the folks running around the Spinward Marches with their TL 15 ships (4 TL 15 worlds in the entire sector). Whenever I ask them where they get their annual maintenance done, I get interesting looks.

In the campaign I am designing - the players have a (Free) TL9 Zhodani Free trader (captured originally at the end of the 3rd Frontier War - the Fanzhienz deck plans).

The good news is that they have a complete set of manuals for the ship - user level maintenance to depot level maintenance. The bad news is they were all machine translated from Zdetl to Ganglic. Every time they need a new part, they roll a task (I use the MT ruleset.) to see if they correctly entered the correct information into the machines that extrude the needed part.

To correctly input information into a 3D printer to manufacture a part.
Difficult, Computer, Engineering, 6 hr (uncertain)
Referee: Cautious Attempt lowers difficulty level to Routine. No Truth - the part doesn't fit. (wrong unit of measurement used) Some Truth: The part fits, but is defective in some way. Roll on the Mishap Table each time the subsystem is used. Total Truth: Part works normally. Uncertain is used because the part may not fail immediately.

The ship also has a number of other nifty quirks. Since it is TL9, there is no artificial gravity. Maneuver performance is degraded when far away from a gravity source (which is why the ship uses resisto-jets). No sensor suites, just all of them as individual systems. Everyone takes turns working the hydroponics. Due to the lack of high TL radiation shielding, gas giant refueling can only take place on small ones and must strictly follow a polar orbit at that (which makes them more vulnerable to attack).

 

[flykiller]

I'd like more ships that actually match the general TL of the sector the players are playing in.

the argo, a sublight interstellar exploration ship. tech 8.

http://www.travellerrpg.com/CotI/Gallery/index.php?n=1963

 

[Straybow]

Ships of all sizes using a ship design ruleset that works.

I posted the single player ship as an example that it only needs two people to play traveller. Single player ships without NPC's are very very rare in the traveller lexicon. As we age out it becomes harder to get 5 people together, so that's my input: Ships that can be run by a single player and that can make their loan payments on perhaps 1 jump a month.

In other words, ship design rules that work.

 

[aramis]

Ships of all sizes using a ship design ruleset that works.

In other words, ship design rules that work.

All of them (except maybe MGT 2) work, for many values of "work"...