The Project - Ripples Through the Imperium

[Swiftbrook]

For over 20 years I’ve wondered and wished for an animation showing the spread of information and the beginning of the Rebellion after the assassination of Strephon on 132-1116. An animation that would once and for all prove several of my long held beliefs:

• Information traveling from Capital to the Solomani Confederation world of Home and back out to the Solomani boarder with orders to start hostilities, would never make it before public word of the assassination would arrive via the X-Boat network. I believe that the Solomani are limited to jump-5 for realistic military communications.
  
• It would take years for the Aslans to begin a credible invasion of the Spinward Marches once word of the assassination finally reaches them and they determine that civil war is beginning in the Imperium.
  
• That it is physically impossible for the TJ network to get information out faster than the navy courier network. This doesn’t even need a map. Naval couriers have minimal down time between jumps. One courier jumps in system, passes the information to the next couriers which jumps out of system within the hour. “Individual [Imperiallines TJ] ships were assigned a sequence of offices to notify. One ship was assigned to transport a notification to Regina and the Spinward Marches.” [Rebellion Sourcebook p.16] That one ship has to spend time refueling, even if only at a gas giant. Every few jumps that one ship needs to stop at a starport to resupply. That would add days to the trip every few jumps.

So the project begins. I'm creating maps showing the spread of information. Here are my guidelines:

1. X-Boats go our along established X-Boat lines only, one stop at a time.
2. The week after X-Boat arrives, Scout/Couriers spread the word to all worlds within two jumps.
3. Naval couriers are dispatched to all naval bases within jump-6.
4. Dulinor will take the fastest route to Dlan, avoiding naval bases as needed so as to not be overtaken by the naval couriers. Dulinor’s fleet will not be able to travel quite as fast as the couriers due to the need to stop and resupply from time to time, but may also take the most direct route returning home.

So . . . my first question is, should the systems colored brown below be included in the systems that receive an X-Boat the very first week after the assassination? In other words, should the X-Boat network send a boat to every X-Boat station within jump-4? Second option is to just stick with the route going in order.

Your thoughts?

 

[Condottiere]

SolSec is heavily reliant on the Confederation Navy on their communications and courier network within the Confederation; they may have a faster one outside it, perhaps activated only for specific occurrences.

While I have no idea if this is canon or not, the Confederation may maintain a diplomatic jump five courier network between Capitol and Home, and SolSec may have turned Imperium personnel at vital communications nodes within an effective reach of their intelligence stations that can analyze the information and react instantly.

Or they've been perusing Nostradamus.

 

[jcrocker]

A couple points.

Lucan takes over pretty quickly after Dulinor botches things. He is going to push out an official statement as soon as he can for maximum distribution, and it is going to emphasize that Lucan is now Emperor. He is going to order the Scouts to run announcements on every xboat route, he's going to order the Scouts and the Navy to deploy as many special couriers as they can. Once the message is out, that's half his battle over - or so he thinks that first day.

The Sollies might not need to have word reach their capital and then back to the frontier. It could be that they had sealed orders at region fleet HQ, "only to be opened if..." that got their fleets moving.

Frankly, in my opinion the whole timeline for the Rebellion is so badly broken, for these reasons and more, I don't know if you need to go to all the trouble. If you want to, if you'll have fun doing it, by all means please do, I don't want to rain on your parade.

But I've long considered the Rebellion to be scripted as opposed to realistic.

 

[McPerth]

So . . . my first question is, should the systems colored brown below be included in the systems that receive an X-Boat the very first week after the assassination? In other words, should the X-Boat network send a boat to every X-Boat station within jump-4? Second option is to just stick with the route going in order.

Your thoughts?

I guess you mostly ask for the two B starport worlds, as they are in reach by the X-boat from Capital, but the usual route takes a stop before reaching them.

If so, I guess for such important a piece of notice, X-boats will be sent to all stations in range, ignoring regular stops on the way. So my answer will be: Yes, all systens in range will have X-boats dispatched, at least this time. Also Depot would be reached this way in 2 weeks, instead of the 3 it would need if the standars routes are followed (though this time I guess, keepin gin mind the importance of Depot, the Naval courriers would reach it in 1 week, and the arrival of the news by X-boat would be irrelevant).

See that this situation will areise several times in the route, and the farther you reach, the more times it will. So, to reach the farthest parts of the Imperium, this can save several weeks, not only 1 or 2.

And, in any case, for such a piece of news, I guess most news agencies will also send their reports in any means posible, so I guess any system at J3 of capital (the range of a subsized lineer) and most at J4 (the range of the largerst freighters) will be aware of the news in a single week, regardless of the presence or lack of x-boat route.

A couple points.

Lucan takes over pretty quickly after Dulinor botches things. He is going to push out an official statement as soon as he can for maximum distribution, and it is going to emphasize that Lucan is now Emperor. He is going to order the Scouts to run announcements on every xboat route, he's going to order the Scouts and the Navy to deploy as many special couriers as they can. Once the message is out, that's half his battle over - or so he thinks that first day.

The Sollies might not need to have word reach their capital and then back to the frontier. It could be that they had sealed orders at region fleet HQ, "only to be opened if..." that got their fleets moving.

See that, as I read it, that's what is told in MT:RS:

Page 10:

Solomani fleets on the Imperial border crossed it as soon as official word of the assassination reached them.

Page 19:

The xboat channels arrived at Terra on 037-1117 and at home on 117-1117. Solomani fleets had received orders "to be opened only in the event of the Emperor's death. " The news of Strephon's assassination was the signal for a broad front advance into Imperial territory along the Solomani border. Within weeks, Solomani fleets crossed the border, pushing Imperial border fleets back an average of two subsectors

See that those two quotes seem contradictory, as, according the same book, news arrived Home at 001-1117, so I have serious doubts orders arrived to the border 6-8 weeks after it (more so as they would need at least some days to plan and send the orders to react to this unexpected event), even at J6 (as I guess the SOlomany Confederation has some J6 corriers, despite its offcial TL being 14, be them imported or built in the few TL15 systems it may have, and in this case all those valuable assets would be put to bear).

I guess the Solomani fleets at the border began, at least, to assamble (sure they have detached squadrons in patrol and other mission) and ready themselves for any contingency when news were received (about 320-1116), and so were fully ready when, about 50-1117 orders were received.

Frankly, in my opinion the whole timeline for the Rebellion is so badly broken, for these reasons and more, I don't know if you need to go to all the trouble. If you want to, if you'll have fun doing it, by all means please do, I don't want to rain on your parade.

But I've long considered the Rebellion to be scripted as opposed to realistic.

Fully agreed in all those points.

 

[Garnfellow]

In my own version of the Traveller Universe, the Confederation Navy had been steadily building up forces on the Imperial border for decades prior to the Rebellion and was constantly conducting war games simulating an invasion of the Imperium. Based on these exercises the Confederation felt reasonably confident they could regain substantial portions of the Solomani Sphere if the Imperium were distracted elsewhere.

The Fifth Frontier War was seen as an enormous wasted opportunity: by the time word had reached the Confederation and High Command had a chance to process the intel, the War was over. Therefore the Confederation military developed a series of sealed orders to be opened only under specific contingencies that ranged from war with the Zhodani to Aslan invasion to economic crisis to another civil war.

I'm still not sure the timeline could be made to work but this rationale gives me at least a handwave.

 

[jcrocker]

There are rationales that can fix some of the issues involved, and the rapid Solomani mobilization is probably among the easiest to fix, for reasons like the above. These make perfect sense.

It's just that when you pile on all of the other improbable outcomes...

 

[kilemall]

One way that any big decision maker could beat the courier limit- Precognition.


If you have developed precog, by it's very nature it beats the time clock, knowing about events before they happen.


Of course even if the Sols have some Precog Corps within SolSec, it's a gigantic leap of faith for a leader to risk existential destruction by starting a war on their say so.


But I could definitely see preparation and all the preliminary moves being done based on this form of 'intel', right up to the brink before courier arrival/confirmation.


Zhos of course would have this going for them, and the Hivers would deduce it's existence, likely not be able to do it at all, but develop some hapless specialized race into being their 'eyes'.

 

[jcrocker]

One way that any big decision maker could beat the courier limit- Precognition.

True, and that would explain the Sollies quite nicely, but if there were any government that I'd expect to go heavily into that sort of thing it would be the Zhodani. Since they started the Fifth Frontier War and didn't win it, that would argue that there are limits to what it can do.

Or that GDW forgot about that part of it when they plotted out the course of the war.

 

[Enoki]

Whereas in my version, I don't see the assassination as an isolated event. There are more players and more reasons behind it than the rather brief material in canon gives.
I see it as many stones thrown into the pond, rather than one. That is, ripples come from many directions, and they often crash into each other creating rumors, falsehoods, and conflicting information. Numerous other players in this, top nobles, business executives (particularly the megacorps), and others in power like military leaders act in their own interests. Some, even many, are also assassinated or attempts made on them.
So, the rebellion doesn't rise just from Capitol. It rises across the empire. The Solomani, Vargr, Aslan, etc., act on information that is partial. Less stable regions of the Imperium revolt on hearing of something more local to them that drives their actions.
Sure, down the road, word of the emperor's assassination arrives, but the rebellion is already in motion because of other events.

 

[Timerover51]

But I've long considered the Rebellion to be scripted as opposed to realistic.

I view it in that way as well, and as poorly scripted as Twilight 2000. Basically, maximum mayhem with no regard to any other outcome.

The further from Capitol, the slower the response is going to be, along with the questioning of the accuracy of the reports of the assassination. Some will think that Lucan was the assassin and was trying to pin it on Dulinor. You will have some questioning if the assassination actually occurred. Given the likely capability of computer-generated graphics, why would anyone believe something like that happened?

I always viewed the Rebellion as a publishing concept intended to sell a lot of product.

 

[Kilgs]

The Fifth Frontier War was seen as an enormous wasted opportunity: by the time word had reached the Confederation and High Command had a chance to process the intel, the War was over. Therefore the Confederation military developed a series of sealed orders to be opened only under specific contingencies that ranged from war with the Zhodani to Aslan invasion to economic crisis to another civil war.

I'm still not sure the timeline could be made to work but this rationale gives me at least a handwave.

I like it.

I believe in the Rebellion book it mentions the sealed orders for the Sollies. But, I was just reading through S&A last week, and found a passage that contradicted it. Grrr.

Sealed orders is the only way to go given communication lag, IMTU.

 

[whartung]

I don't think the X-Boat network is as limited as portrayed. I don't think imperial communications are limited by the X-Boat network. I don't think something as important as the Emperor assassination would "wait".

The overall premise is fine, but, for example, word would be at all of the subsector capitals as fast as J-6 could get it there. Norris would know in 6 months.

The hub and spoke X-Boat network should beat "word of mouth", i.e. "word of far trader".

Simply, communication is expensive, but ships are cheap. X-Boat/Scout resources are not limited.

Any planet with a C+ starport will know as soon as possible.

 

[mike wightman]

Canon is pretty clear - the civilian x-boat network goes from world to world as shown on the map.

Megacorporations, sector wide shipping lines, the IISS, the IN, the Imperial bureaucracy, and of course Imperial Intelligence and Imperial Ministry of justice all have access to jump 6 ships and jump 6 communication networks.

The Zhodani and Solomani spooks will likewise have access to a network of jump 6 couriers.

It was only the civilian population of the Imperium that found out late in the day about the assassination, the people that matter had much more warning and much more time to get their own machinations underway, which is one of the reasons it all fell apart.

Norris did indeed learn from the jump 6 couriers about the assassination, and promptly invented his investiture as archduke.

 

[whartung]

Canon is pretty clear - the civilian x-boat network goes from world to world as shown on the map.

Then I simply point out that the exercise may consist of the "military/official" rate of travel vs the civilian rate of travel.

How long did word of the assassination, for example, arrive at worlds before it was confirmed in the civilian press. How long were the rumors flying.

 

[mike wightman]

That information is in MT canon already - there is a jump 6 courier wavefront map in Rebellion Sourcebook - see pages 14+

 

[whartung]

That information is in MT canon already - there is a jump 6 courier wavefront map in Rebellion Sourcebook - see pages 14+

Does this contradict the thesis that the OP is trying to present?

 

[aramis]

Does this contradict the thesis that the OP is trying to present?

to a point, yes. But it still doesn't address the civil mail issues.

 

[BRJN]

When I worked out an alternate Solomani War of Reconquest, I noticed the multi-month gap between when news from Capital would arrive at the Confederation border in Daibei Sector, and when orders could possibly arrive from Home.
My solution was to have TWO special envelopes: To Be Opened Upon Initial News of the Emperor's Death (which says 'fake a readiness exercise, concentrate your fleet, and move to jump-off system XYZ') and To Be Opened Upon Public Confirmation of the Emperor's Death (which says 'Initiate Operation Invasion').
Experienced officers on border fleets will also know how long they usually have between when Secret dispatches arrive and when public broadcasts of the information are made, and can put that time to good use doing non-aggressive looking things (like opening up an old military supply base and asking for bids on possible demolition or salvage or conversion to civilian use).

 

[Swiftbrook]

Thanks for all the feedback. Here is an update with The Project.

What I have learned so far ….

• Photoshop is a great program!
• Dulinor is running for his life. After six weeks of consecutive jumps, taking the most direct route home, his ship is only three parsecs in front of the imperial naval couriers.
• The Solomani have almost a straight line from Capital to the Solomani Sphere border. After six weeks of consecutive jumps, the Solomani are ten parsecs ahead of the imperial naval couriers and twenty-one parsecs ahead of the X-Boats. The gap is growing due to the lack of naval X-Boat bases along their path. If this continues, I can foresee that the Solomani will have for the events presented in the Rebellion Sourcebook to play out.
• There are many areas within thirty parsecs of Capital that don’t have naval bases. The jumps made between 167-1116 and 174-1116 have several 8+ parsec gap between naval bases. I’m having to pick stop over worlds between bases just to keep the message moving.
• TravellerMap.com is awesome!
• It took me a couple of weeks to make my base map of the Imperium. I stitched together sectors made from TravellerMap.com but leaving out most planet names. The PhotoShop file is HUGE! 359,002 Kb, but each sector has its own layer. The maps I’m painting (PNG) are smaller but still too large to upload (49,549 Kb). So far I haven’t figured out how to get a good file that’s small enough to upload.
• The X-Boat routes make no sense, and I think that is intentional.
• Having looked more at The Beyond and The Trogan Reaches sector maps, I am even more convinced that the Aslan invasion of the Spinward Marches could not happen and there is no reason for it to happen. Almost everything in life takes the path of least resistance. Having the ihatei fleets head spinward instead of coreword just makes sense. The males can have easier victories conquering worlds and the females can establish new trade routes and make money.

I will try to get a map or two uploaded this weekend.

 

[BRJN]

The X-Boat routes make no sense, and I think that is intentional.

No kidding. Solomani Rim sector has exactly one Xboat connection Capital-ward, and two or three more places where you could 'detour' an emergency message.
Those systems are going to see wave after wave of Solomani Raider Squadrons (some are "just passing through") with orders to smash everything Xboat they see.

The Solomani do not want Capital to know what is going on. They also want the population of Solomani Rim to feel cut-off surrounded and abandoned.