Lineal v Exponential Technological growth...

[Judas Iscariot]

I was wondering if Traveller 5 still uses a linear model of technological growth considering how badly this turned out for it in regards to CT's predictions of things like communications, computation, and various other associated technologies that would be ubiquitous in an advanced technological society?

 

[Space Cadet]

A little premature since they don't have artificial intelligence yet. Communications in Traveller is the same as communications today, we use radio. According to the old Traveller tech table, we should now be at TL 10 and experimenting with Jump 1 drives and flitting about in air/rafts, I'd say that prediction has come up short.

 

[Klaus]

If you assume the Tech Level progression is a relative thing, then we are always at TL8.

That was true in the 70's, and it's true now in the noughties.

That way it is less broken.

 

[Klaus]

If you assume the Tech Level progression is a relative thing, then we are always at TL8.

That was true in the 70's, and it's true now in the noughties.

That way it is less broken.

 

[Plankowner]

Air Raft technology is buildable at TL-8, that doesn't mean it is discovered at TL-8. Even Traveller Canon states that Terrans did not discover anti-gravity until contact with the Vilani, which would have been late TL-9 at a minimum.

 

[Arthur Denger]

Originally posted by Space Cadet:
A little premature since they don't have artificial intelligence yet. Communications in Traveller is the same as communications today, we use radio. According to the old Traveller tech table, we should now be at TL 10 and experimenting with Jump 1 drives and flitting about in air/rafts, I'd say that prediction has come up short.

I beg to differ. At least by some standards (depending on whom you ask), rudimentary AI does exist today. IMTU, starships above TL9 have never used radio frequencies to communicate: tight beam laser, maser, neutrino transceivers, even experimental tachyon technology (beyond normal TLs) was used. And one might argue today we are just one major breakthrough away from contragrav technology...

Years ago, a friend of mine explained Tech Level progression in Traveller to me in this way: it operates like a bell curve, with technological development progressing extremely slowly at low levels, rapidly accelerating at TLs 5-9 then tapering off to a trickle again at the very highest Tech Levels. The rationale was that by the time a civilization reaches TL 13+, most technological applications have already been invented, developed and optimized; discoveries now become rarer, new research more difficult. It is all speculation, of course, but the premise seemed sound to me back then, and it still does today. It's one possible explanation.

 

[Judas Iscariot]

I can state with ABSOLUTE AUTHORITY (That of Marvin Minsky, Cory Doctorow, Sebastian Thrun (Leader of the Stanford Team that won the DARPA Grand Challenge Desert Race, and current leader in the Urban Challenge), Eliezer Yudowski, and MANY others) that if all of the AI that controls our ociety were to suddenly vanish...

Our society would crumble within days:

No telephone,
No Banking
No getting gas from an automated pump
No internet
No Stock Market (Or Commodities Markets)
No cars can be made

Shipping would cease as scheduling computers and GPS would fail

Credit Companies would bankrupt

Our Government would no longer be able to communicate with its various institutions

I could keep going.

The list of things that we used to say "Only a human ca xxx" has shrunk so rapidly in the last decade that if you really knew how fast things were moving... You would probably have trouble getting to sleep (I know that I still do, and it has been three years since I first stepped into that damned lab).

AI can beat a chess master
AI can drive a car
AI can fly an airplane (Take-off, navigate and land)
AI can pick the best choices for your query on Google
and so on...

Strong AI just needs a couple of things to be realized, and according to FFS2, which I just re-read, it should be available just after TL9, when Fully fucntional Prosthetics hit the scene (The technologies that must be ubiquitous for fully functional Prosthetics include human-neural interfaces, and cellular level resolution scanning technologies. With those, it is possible to directly scan the brain while it is operating to get a model of how it operates, and then construct that model on a digital subtrate, which by TL9, seems to be more than capable)

The only problem with the bell curve theory is that it is not supported by any evidence, and all other evidence points to a continuing and rapidly accelerating pace of technological growth.

Considering that technology has replaced biology as the evolutionary substrate of humanity, it is progressing at the same pace that evolution has progressed to this point, which happens to be exponential (Take a look at ANY map of all history from the emergence of life to the present and you will see that almost EVERYTHING has happend in the last few instants of history)

 

[Judas Iscariot]

I should point out that if Marc wants to continue to use a lineal model of technological progression, then I can do nothing about it, and will work within that framework.

My only fear is that Traveller will again in a few years look drastically behind the times (as it did in the late 80s when the PC boom began, and PCs were beginning to have more Computing power than teh computers in Traveller, and I can't think of what the other technological faux pas were, but I know that computers weren't the only thing..

 

[atpollard]

Originally posted by Matthew Bailey:
AI can beat a chess master
AI can drive a car
AI can fly an airplane (Take-off, navigate and land)
AI can pick the best choices for your query on Google
and so on...

Let AI come up with a workable solution to end the violence, hunger and misery in much of Africa, and I will be impressed. Until it reaches that level, it is just a useful toy - like cell phones. Not a part of human evolution.

 

[Arthur Denger]

Originally posted by atpollard:
Let AI come up with a workable solution to end the violence, hunger and misery in much of Africa...

The hunger and misery present on the African continent today, and the violence it perpetuates, exist because of deep-seated ethnic rivalries, political corruption and unfettered greed (both within Africa and abroad). The only way AI will eliminate these miasmal conditions is through direct AI implantation in the human brain. The solution to the suffering in Africa (and elsewhere) is universal education and the Rule of Law. Get implementation of those and the other problems will largely solve themselves.

The bigger issue relating to artificial intelligence is: Do we as a civilization really want AI working to "solve" human social issues? It's a common enough theme in science fiction; countless sf novels have been written about it, and off-hand, I cannot think of any which turned out favorably for Humaniti. AI technology is a very poor substitute for individual and collective responsibility.

 

[Arthur Denger]

Originally posted by Matthew Bailey:
...

The only problem with the bell curve theory is that it is not supported by any evidence, and all other evidence points to a continuing and rapidly accelerating pace of technological growth.

Considering that technology has replaced biology as the evolutionary substrate of humanity, it is progressing at the same pace that evolution has progressed to this point, which happens to be exponential (Take a look at ANY map of all history from the emergence of life to the present and you will see that almost EVERYTHING has happend in the last few instants of history)

...

I should point out that if Marc wants to continue to use a lineal model of technological progression, then I can do nothing about it, and will work within that framework.

My only fear is that Traveller will again in a few years look drastically behind the times (as it did in the late 80s when the PC boom began, and PCs were beginning to have more Computing power than teh computers in Traveller, and I can't think of what the other technological faux pas were, but I know that computers weren't the only thing..

I would argue that all the evidence we have thus far would seem to indicate a bell shape. We are still on the upward curve, however the rate of technological advance (new major inventions, new breakthrough technologies) has slowed in recent decades, compared to the early-19th to mid-20th century period. This has been discussed elsewhere on CotI. As there is no proven way to see into the future, I must agree with you, Matthew, that it is just a theory.

Question: if you could suggest a non-linear model of tech advancement, what might that look like? I've always thought the CT model was brilliantly designed, despite the fact that it has turned out to be less than perfectly accurate, in retrospect. Other than by canon fiat, how would you control the availability of specific artifacts (generic definition) at differing stages of tech development?

Edit: Added major and breakthrough to first paragraph.

 

[robject]

More or less, humans are engineered to be automators, to use the world as a lever. We are tool-makers.

Our technology is our lever, just like draft animals plowed our fields and carried our burdens before gasoline.

 

[atpollard]

I would question the ability of an exponential growth model to function in the Traveller rules. Imagine a simple doubling of the rate of TL progression starting with TL 5 = 40 years (1900-1940). The progression would run:

TL 0 = 580 BC - AD 700 = 1280 YEARS
TL 1 = 700-1340 = 640 YEARS
TL 2 = 1340-1660 = 320 YEARS
TL 3 = 1660-1820 = 160 YEARS
TL 4 = 1820-1900 = 80 YEARS
TL 5 = 1900-1940 = 40 YEARS
TL 6 = 1940-1960 = 20 YEARS
TL 7 = 1960-1970 = 10 YEARS
TL 8 = 1970-1975 = 5 YEARS
TL 9 = 1975-1977 = 2.5 YEARS
TL 10 = JUN 1977-JAN 1978 = 15 MONTHS
TL 11 = JAN-AUG 1978 = 7.5 MONTHS
TL 12 = AUG 1978-JAN 1979 = 3.8 MONTHS
TL 13 = JAN-FEB 1979 = 1.9 MONTHS
TL 14 = FEB-MAR 1979 = 28.5 DAYS
TL 15 = MAR 4 - MAR 18, 1979 = 14.2 DAYS
TL 16 = MAR 18 - MAR 25, 1979 = 7.1 DAYS

Ignoring the exact dates, how do you adventure in an Imperium where it takes 2 weeks for a world to progress from TL 15 to TL 16?

Looking at it as a simple doubling of performance at each TL, if a TL 3 firearm were capable of 1 shot per minute, a TL 15 firearm would be capable of 4096 shots per minute.

Both these examples are based on doubling the rate, exponential growth is MUCH faster.

 

[Arthur Denger]

Maybe a better term would be asymptotic growth, rather than exponentional growth, a term which is grossly overused (and misused) in today's vernacular.

 

[Tobias]

Originally posted by Arthur hault-Denger:
I beg to differ. At least by some standards (depending on whom you ask), rudimentary AI does exist today.

By any definition that calls current implementations AI, Traveller includes AI as well.
Even a "low autonomous" robot brain, to go by Book 8, is far beyond any AI capabilities we have today. A "high autonomous" brain is actually a full-fledged AI.
Traveller's (to be precise: Book 8) definition of AI requires genuine emotions, creativity, unpredictability and survival instinct. Essentially, the creation must free itself from its creators to be considered an AI in this sense.
By current definitions, however, AI is plentiful in the OTU from TL 12 onwards at the latest.

 

[Whipsnade]

Originally posted by Matthew Bailey:
[QB]... that if all of the AI that controls our ociety were to suddenly vanish... Our society would crumble within days...

Matthew,

Agreed.

AI can beat a chess master
AI can drive a car
AI can fly an airplane (Take-off, navigate and land)
AI can pick the best choices for your query on Google...

However, we don't have a single AI that can do all those things while we already do have single human beings who can beat a chess master, drive a car, fly an airplane, pick choices for a search engine, etc.

No matter what advances have been made in AI, we still only have expert systems. Wonderfully exeprt systems, systems that are more expert than any human, but systems that can only do one thing or an extremely narrow range of things and systems that are utterly useless for anything the slightest bit beyond one thing or an extremely narrow range of things.

We've built wonderful experts, we've yet to build anything remotely resembling a jack-of-all-trades.

I've stated over and over for years now that the seeming 'lack' of robots and AI in Traveller is no lack at all. What we in the 21st Century see as an AI or robot the people of the 57th Century see as a mere tool or a toaster. It's a difference in perception.

Tell a WW2 naval aviator that 2007 naval aircraft are routinely landed on carriers by machines and he'll immediately presume we have robots flying planes in 2007. Of course, you and I know that robots do not fly planes in 2007, computers and expert systems fly planes instead.

I've often used the example of a 57th Century flat or apartment. Imagine a set of rooms that cleans itself, makes repairs or arranges for repairs, manages the flow of information in and out of the interface systems used by the occupants, orders food and does the cooking, does the 'laundry', maintains security, adjusts/maintains an internal enviroment, and does hundreds of other things. Quick now, do the inhabitants of that apartment live in an apartment or an AI robot?

Someone from the 57th Cnetury would say 'apartment' while we'd be tempted to say 'robot'.


Have fun,
Bill

 

[Judas Iscariot]

BTW, I am a robotics/AI student and Computer Engineer... I get what you are saying...

I think what really needs to be done is to have some sort of material on just what is controlled via robotics, and what is controlled via human interaction with an Expert system (when I say "Robot" I do not mean androids or gynoids - did you know that Android means MALE robot? - I mean anything that uses a computer control for a mechanical system without the need for human intervention)

Now, that said... I think that there are far too few anthropomorphic robots in Traveller. The Japanese have a program to have usable Human Robots as aids in construction, health care, and home care of th eelderly by 2012. I have talked with a couple of their engineers, and developers at Sony, Honda, Toyota, and The Universities of Osaka and Tokyo. They all seem to think that they will reach that goal and possibly exceed it.

My part in that is to help with the development of robotic toes. not a big part, but it is bodly going where no man has gone before (There are like three other people on the planet that I have been able to find who have focused solely upon the toe architecture...)

Anyway, I think that I will be satisfied for the time being with what T5 will have to offer. I have been told that materials tech is still on the table, and that Marc is willing to entertain suggestions (which brings me to another point... I need to find out how to contact him... I seem to have left his email on my old PC, and forgot to migrate it to my new macbook) for new material and tech related to materials...

 

[Whipsnade]

Originally posted by Matthew Bailey:
[QB]I think what really needs to be done is to have some sort of material on just what is controlled via robotics, and what is controlled via human interaction with an Expert system.


Matthew,

That's the heart of my 'perception' analysis. At a certain TL, Imperial worlds control nearly everything via human interaction with an expert system. However, they don't see those expert systems as robots. They're just tools.

Now, that said... I think that there are far too few anthropomorphic robots in Traveller.

I disagree and I'll discuss why after the next quote.

The Japanese have a program to have usable Human Robots as aids in construction, health care, and home care of th eelderly by 2012.

What we will see as construction robots, nurse robots, home care robots, and so on the 57th Century will only see as tools and toasters.

You and I can wander onto a construction site where a luxury home is being constructed for some 57th Century Authenticist. Concrete is being mixed, lumber cut to length, wood framed together, paint mixed and applied, all sort of things and it will all be done by expert machines under the guidance of a few (maybe one) human. We'll goggle at the 'robots' building the house, while the humans on the work site will simply think of those machines as tools. That's a 'framing' machine, that's a 'painting' machines, etc.

Those machines won't look like people with tools for hands either. They'll be specialized machines whose form fits their function. Even what we'd think of as a 'nurse-bot' or 'granny-minder' won't be androids or gynoids or even single, discrete systems. They'll most likely be an intregal part of the building the care takes place in; i.e. no vacuum cleaner pushed by a robot, but a vacuum cleaner that is directed by a building's expert system.

Expert systems, which are narrowly applied by their very nature, will be seen as mere tools. They won't even be 'human-shaped', why cripple a tool by limiting it to only two arms and legs? Why build a toe when a machine doesn't actually need one? That's akin to those steam cars of the late 1800s that were gussied up to look like horses.

All these expert machines are tools and toasters, no more magical to him than our circular saw is to us. However, our circular saw is magic to Imhotep or the Ice Man.

The term 'robot', on the other hand, will be limited to those very few 'jack-of-all-trade' machines like AB-101. They're rare in the 57th Century because they're costly and not any real improvement over the cheaper, more focussed, more available expert systems.


Have fun,
Bill

 

[Judas Iscariot]

Well, the Japanese have done a lot os studying of machine human interaction, and discovered that in most situations, it helps to have a human face and body attached to the interface between human and machine...

This brought about their Anthromorph robot program, where it was discovered that people felt better if they could see and touch a human form, whether it was human or not, than letting some strange robotic arm come in to "manipulate" them physically.

Now, they also discovered that just the presence of such a form was helpful in getting people to adjust to the fact that most of their care was coming from an impersonal and strange looking contraption (I wish that I could find the article, but it is five years old and in Japanese)

Now, macnines that build buildings... The Japanese already have robots that are capable of building skyscrapers with only one or two people in charge of the process. The robot builds itself on site to the specs needed for the job, builds each story of the building, even going so far as to order its own supplies, and check the parts for error. Then when it is finished, it dismantles itself and loads itself back onto its cargo pallets; ready to be moved to its next job.

They have been in use for about 6 years now, and they have been used mostly to build housing for low-income families.

There are other reasons for building systems that look like a person: Portability. The ability to go from one place to another without having to be re-configured to use the tools and equipment at the new site.

I can (and am) write a whole book on the subject of ambulatory and humaniform robotics. It will hopefully wind up being my Phd thesis.. But, that said... You are correct in that most of the robots will be seamlessly integrated into society. It is probably also the fact that 57 centuries from now we will be as gods to mankind today (see SIAI: http://www.singinst.org/ or the Acceleration Watch: http://www.accelerationwatch.com/).

These are not dumb people... They are Phd's and the current leaders in computer, AI and Robotics technology, inventors of most of the computer technology that we take for granted.

Their combined opinion is that by the middle of this century (2020 to 2140 respectively) we will undergo such an enormous phase shift that humanity will essentially be at the end of its era as rulers of the world. In short... It will be the end of manknd as we now know it.

Bill Joy, the founder of Sun Microsystems has even gone off his rocker and is calling on a moratorium on future AI research because he is afraid that these people are all correct in their predictions.

From all of the RSS feeds that I get on technology... I feel that they are also pretty correct.

In terms of Traveller... It is going to make the game look quite out of date in years to come, as what was predicted to be TL20+ will be happening in the here and now (Such as the braingate technology: http://www.cyberkineticsinc.com/content/medicalproducts/braingate.jsp )

This is a neural interface that actually works. It has been placed under military care recently as they have found that it's capabilities have been progrssing much faster than was expected. It is still being used as part of the DARPA Prosthesis project to provide arms and legs for Iraqi war veterans that will be as capable as their real limbs (It is projected by these guys that Artificial Limbs will exceed the capabilities of Human limbs by 2020 at the latest)...

Of course, it may just be that all of these things are so ubiquitous in society, by then, that they are not noticed

 

[Tobias]

Do you two actually own Book 8 and 101 Robots?