Life Expectancy in the future

[ArcaneFlash]

Hello All, I wasn't sure where to put this.

With the increasing tech of healthcare. What do you all think about how long a typical human's lifespan would increase to? I noted in MT's Encyclopedia some of the ages of the Emperors. In STtng, McCoy living to around 120.

So, if we go by tech level, how much of an age increase do you think you humaniti gets?

 

[Quint]

Define "typical human" - Villani are already long-lived per DGP's V&V and get bonuses to the aging effects chart IIRC, I seem to recall mentions of shorter lived human races as well...

One of the interesting bits to T5 is the "Intellectual artifact" that not only does TL advancement speed up as TL does but that the biological "generation" remains the same across the entire lifespan of a species. On the one hand this makes reasonable biological sense it gets twisty in my head when I start pegging TL advancement to this because it implies that lifespan remains the same.... Yes, yes... it doesn't say that, but...

Personally, I think in a roughly OTO-style universe, sans any specific anagathic technology and a "standard human" (the "Imperial mutt"), you could make a reasonable argument for something like... At TL7, 70 years. Every TL over 7 gives +5 years, and every TL below 7 gives -5 years. I would also, probably just looking at medicine between now and the 1970's, tweak the heck out of the aging tables and give some bonuses based on the TL of the character's culture (and yes, lowering the age that they kick in for lower TL's).

That's really the kicker - it's not just the average or maximum age increase, it's the "healthier" and the change in effects or "physiological rate" of aging.

D.

 

[whulorigan]

Hello All, I wasn't sure where to put this.

With the increasing tech of healthcare. What do you all think about how long a typical human's lifespan would increase to? I noted in MT's Encyclopedia some of the ages of the Emperors. In STtng, McCoy living to around 120.

So, if we go by tech level, how much of an age increase do you think you humaniti gets?

I'll think more about it, but my first suggestion would be that the increase in lifespan should be based upon the age (term?) in which "aging checks" need to be made. In other words, have increasing TL push back the term in which you first roll for aging effects.

 

[Spinward Scout]

The oldest woman just celebrated her 116th birthday yesterday. They had it on the radio. Life expectancy in the US is now around 80. I could see adding 10 or 15 years to life expectancy per tech level.

 

[CosmicGamer]

With the increasing tech of healthcare. What do you all think about how long a typical human's lifespan would increase to?

Keep in mind that if you talking about the average lifespan. Dangers such as war, home, vehicle, and workplace safety and such may be as much a factor as modern high tech medicine. Long ago people, though less of them, lived to be just as old. Less verifiable without the documentation our modern TL has. (How about a correlation between TL and time wasted on documentation or TL and government interference in peoples lives)

There is more to account for than just the tech level. Rich or poor. Government provided medicine, Insurance, pay as you go, Care based on social status and other factors that may limit who can receive or afford care. Rural (perhaps a low pop system without a medical infrastructure) vs urban. Warfare and other dangers.

So, if we go by tech level, how much of an age increase do you think you humaniti gets?

So as with most things, the answer is it varies.

With TL15 you have

the development of synthetic anagathics means that the human lifespan is now vastly increased

I'm not sure if there is any Traveller documentation that indicates how much.

 

[whulorigan]

I'll think more about it, but my first suggestion would be that the increase in lifespan should be based upon the age (term?) in which "aging checks" need to be made. In other words, have increasing TL push back the term in which you first roll for aging effects.

There is more to account for than just the tech level. Rich or poor. Government provided medicine, Insurance, pay as you go, Care based on social status and other factors that may limit who can receive or afford care. Rural (perhaps a low pop system without a medical infrastructure) vs urban.

So as with most things, the answer is it varies.

So perhaps one could amend my earlier comment to:

"Have increasing TL push back the term in which you first roll for aging effects, based upon the medical TL to which the person normally has access."

 

[Drakon]

One of the problems we have with this approach is that reality is very quickly showing us up. You look at the research going on these days, and I suspect you could see "Practical Immortality" by the end of the 21st century.

Practical Immortality means no disease or old age. You still have to worry about traumas and accidents, but disease and old age are going away. We could be seeing 600 year life spans before too long. What a game changer that will be.

 

[Quint]

Just thought of one other factor that could easily play in - Social Standing. While it might not be perfect, I'd probably do something like SOCx2 in years and add to the average age. Or maybe a similar +/-5 year per SOC divergent from 7.

It stands to reason that higher SOC individuals have better access to medical care, proper nutrition, proper exercise, good environment than lower SOC individuals.

D.

 

[CosmicGamer]

So perhaps one could amend my earlier comment to: "Have increasing TL push back the term in which you first roll for aging effects, based upon the medical TL to which the person normally has access."

In order to not reinvent the wheel, or rewrite the rules; I assume that chargen aging reflects a range of Interstellar factors, including TL. One character may age rapidly, another may breeze through.

I also recognize that the aging rules are not meant to be a perfect simulation but are a simplified game mechanic. One feature of the mechanic is to help limit the number of terms, keeping character ages and skills more balanced.

Not sure if you want to have a chargen where characters have varied TL backgrounds and careers thus having different aging tables or what your looking to achieve?

 

[Ishmael]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preston_curve

http://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/workingpapers/wp108.html

some information relating social standing as class defined by Weber vs life expectancy

 

[rancke]

Tentative suggestion

What if we define a number for "wear and tear" (I can't think of a good word for it) for a character? At 18 the w&t is determined based on the homeworld TL and character's social standing. The higher the TL, the less the w&t. Each term w&t is increased by a factor that depends on the average TL the character has enjoyed during the term (so anyone in an Imperial service would use TL15, for example) and the social standing of his occupation during the term. Aging throws are then determined by the character's w&t, increasing when certain thresholds are crossed.

Longevity genes are represented by increasing the number of years in an 'aging term' (distinct from a character generation term).


Hans

 

[flykiller]

actually with increasing technology what we appear to observe is not increasing lifespan but increasing healthspan. with the virtual elimination of infant mortality, certain diseases, and failures of old age we see many more people living into old age and living well - but we do not see actual increases in actual maximum ages attained. the human body appears to be on an internal clock that if not disrupted by an intrusive event seems simply to check out on its own time.

what we may see is prominent senior citizens' personalities "uploaded" into AI structures of varying mobility and interactive capabilities. as a society ages and accumulates these unchanging ... antiques? sages? heritages? leftovers? ancestors? authorities? ... it could accumulate quite a few unrelievable stresses.

 

[atpollard]

Absolute maximum = 120 years.

[PM me to ask why.]

 

[BlackBat242]

Or you could more accurately simulate better (or worse) medical care by giving a +1 dm per 2 TL above 10 for aging rolls and a -1 per 2 TL below 10. This accounts for the "better quality-of-life" result we see from better medical care, and would be applied for the "life-time average TL" (as current medical studies show that childhood nutrition and medical care is just as important as mid & late life medical care.

That doesn't mess with the hard-wired genetic reproduction breakdown issue. The only thing I allow to alter that is - wait for it - anagathics drugs.

The way I play those is they are rare and costly, due to their being derived from naturally-produced organic components that cannot be produced in a lab.

Although the total quantity produced is considerable, after the high nobles, the extremely wealthy (mega-corp execs, etc), and the otherwise privileged take their cut there is little left for more "ordinary" persons - and considering the population of known space the chances of a PC getting some is very small.


However, since this is unrelated to standard medical care it is kept separate from "life expectancy" issues as it only affects a small part of the population.

 

[Vladika]

Absolute maximum = 120 years.

[PM me to ask why.]

Biblical.

Requisite disclaimer: From a reference book, not a statement about, nor an endorsement of, religion.

 

[Ishmael]

Hayflick limit

If the Ancients changed Vilani dna to extend this limit ( by means of the enzyme telomerase ), it might suggest an increased chance for cancer(?) by removing the limit on the number of times a cell may divide.

one study suggests a limit of ~125 years

 

[Timerover51]

One of the problems we have with this approach is that reality is very quickly showing us up. You look at the research going on these days, and I suspect you could see "Practical Immortality" by the end of the 21st century.

Practical Immortality means no disease or old age. You still have to worry about traumas and accidents, but disease and old age are going away. We could be seeing 600 year life spans before too long. What a game changer that will be.

Disease and old age are going away? Interesting. I would recommend reading the obituary columns for a few weeks.

Also, plug 600 year life spans into population increase and see how long it takes until distribution of resources starts getting really nasty.