Imperial population distribution.

[parmasson]

I ran across this quote in an earlier thread and it got me to thinking.

Quoted by robject,

Marc Miller ruminates on Industrial worlds:

Industrialized by itself just means manufacturing. For trade, it means a lot. For riches or quality of life, I would prefer a high tech rich agricultural world.

Another thing to look at is population concentrations. Most of the population of the Imperium is concentrated in probably 30-40 worlds. There must be a whole flock of pop-3 worlds which account for almost nothing.

http://www.travellerrpg.com/cgi-bin/Trav/CotI/Discuss/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=62;t=000076

So most of the Imperium is empty? I can accept that but how do we account for it?

Given a world that has not seen too much war and a nice medium growth rate of say .8%-1% then we would expect to see most worlds with at least a million or two inhabitants after 500+ or so years. Garden worlds with tech levels above 8 or 9 could have even higher rates if local culture permitted. The implications for trade and commerce are huge. With most systems virtually empty there would be no reason to go there. No selection of goods to speak of and nobody to sell to.

Or am I just misinterpreting an off the cuff remark? I don’t have AOTI and based on reviews did not plan on picking it up.

 

[The Hinterworlds Rambler]

Empty I guess in numbers, but consider how many good or bad people in history came out of nowhere.
What I would like defined is what itisi like to actually live in these places. Envrionmentally, Socailly, etc.

There preconceptions involved in the Trade Codes, and these invoke preset notions based on our Earth or Media experience. There should be limitless variations on things. Not all Industrial world would be Geidi Prime ot LA from Blade Runner. They could be massive arcologies with lots of plants, surrounded by factories. Literally anything. I for one would love to see a TL F agricultural world in operation, just to see how it would work.

 

[GypsyComet]

The idea that more than 90% of the population of the Imperium lives on a small handful of worlds has been recognized for a long time. The shape of the Rebellion was influenced by the distribution of those worlds, after all.

What most people *can't* wrap their heads around is what the resulting trade looks like. For many the problem is that the only exposure to macro-economics they've had is the trade rules in one edition or other of Traveller, very few of which actually cover the scale of commerce required to get the big picture. For others, the problem is that they go straight to statistical analyses and expect the Imperium to fall into line. Sorry, that's not how statistics work, and the Imperium is NOT an "ideal solution" in any case, or at least not a single solution.

And so the debate continues...

 

[Anthony]

The vast bulk of the people living on Hi-pop worlds also means people's perspectives on what's typical for the Imperium is a bit skewed.

Going with GENII for the moment, the median tech level (by population) is D (close to E), the median law level is 9, the median government type is 9.

Counting by worlds, the median TL is B, the median law level is 5, the median government type is 5.

There are actually 242 pop-A worlds, holding 75% of the population of the Imperium.

 

[parmasson]

242? That is a bit more.

In a way it helps me understand how after so long small traders continue to exist. I would think that after a 100 years that margins would have dropped and consolidation within the shipping industry would have done away with the small time carrier in favor of big megacorp sized carriers. If there just isn’t enough reason for regular service to most of the Imperium then it makes the existence of the small carriers more plausible.

When it comes to population growth/shrinkage I wonder what the human population pyramid looks like. We could see a strong growth Imperium-wide until say 500-600 and then a falling off of growth. A period of stagnation around the time of the civil wars and then stagnation from say 700-1000 and a gradual “die off” among the less developed worlds. My guess is that 95% of the wealth is concentrated on those 200 worlds and on those worlds that 90%+ of the wealth is in the hands of 1-2% of the population. With any world above TL-7 using mechanized farming, birth control available at TL-6 and most desirable high TL manufactured goods being shipped out from those high pop worlds then there is no incentive to have a large family.

Once the UWPs are corrected it will be interesting to look at the distribution of high pop worlds geographically (term?). They might form a network of power siphoning off wealth and strength creating power bases. No wonder the Imperium broke up in 1116. There was little keeping it together. If economic power is based on localities and trade does not travel very far due to the high cost and available of high tech goods and food locally (say within eight parsecs) then why go elsewhere?

 

[parmasson]

The vast bulk of the people living on Hi-pop worlds also means people's perspectives on what's typical for the Imperium is a bit skewed.

Going with GENII for the moment, the median tech level (by population) is D (close to E), the median law level is 9, the median government type is 9.

Counting by worlds, the median TL is B, the median law level is 5, the median government type is 5.

There are actually 242 pop-A worlds, holding 75% of the population of the Imperium.

What is the is the distribution like? Do we have the data in computer form so can we graph it?

Hmmm... More importantly is tech level and population linked?
Out of the 242 Pop A worlds what percentage of them is above TL-13

 

[GypsyComet]

Note that the GEnie listings also include a chunk of the Solomani Sphere, which was generated to have more HiPops than normal. If you weren't screening for Imperial worlds in that data, the Solomani worlds could skew your numbers considerably.

The GEnie data also has issues...

242 is a reasonable number considering the generation method, however. In a standard density sector, Pop-A worlds should average about one per subsector. That turns into a LOT of HiPop worlds, particularly since adding Pop-9 worlds in should triple that number and represent another 15% of the population.

That the median are at TL 13 under faceless and often intrusive governments should make the attraction of the other 93% of the occupied worlds that much stronger.

 

[Anthony]

I did filter for Imperial worlds. While the GENII data has issues, it's actually fairly close to what you'd get for a random distribution given the worldgen rules (theoretically, pop-A should be about 81% of the population).

If there were 11,000 worlds in the 3I, 1/36 of those (a little over 300) would be pop-A. There's actually about 9,000 worlds on the dot map, which is consistent with about 250 pop-A worlds.

The median pop-A world has a law level of 10; it's the lower pop worlds that just barely pull the median down. 13 is the average TL for a pop-A world, though.

 

[GypsyComet]

Originally posted by Anthony:
I did filter for Imperial worlds.

Cool. Just checking...

 

[robject]

Sunbane/Genie data is nearly spot-on for population estimate purposes. Its main problems are with bases (especially depots and way stations), "desert/non-desert" world identifications (many, many times, atmosphere digit A is generated for 'water' worlds, but current Traveller understanding is that there is no water on atmosphere 'A' worlds), and stellar data.

Also, world SAH (size-atmosphere-hydrosphere) can also be non-random, but this trend hasn't really been studied much, since AOTI only indirectly touches on it.

Finally, there are artifacts of the milieu in Sunbane data: many worlds throughout the central sectors are at TL16. (You can see examples of this in Massilia, but Sunbane has worlds like this in many sectors). Until the terminal stage of the Third Imperium, the tech max is 15.

The problems which plague Sunbane data also vary wildly from sector to sector. A few sectors are nearly perfect (Corridor, Reaver's Deep, Lishun?), while others are terrible (Zarushagar).

Kurt, if 200 worlds in the Imperium are pop digit 9 and A, and that represents 75% of the population, well that means that about one third of those worlds are pop A, which means that about 70 worlds contain about 67% of the total Imperial population.

Here's a monkeywrench: Suppose those high pop worlds were already populated by nonhuman (NH) sophonts, long before the Ziru Sirka found them, and suppose 50% of the world population is still indigenous...

 

[rgd]

Some interesting analyses here, but I think they're predicated on the assumption that the worldgen rules hold true for all sectors of the 3I. I don't believe that's the case.

The Solomani Rim was generated with modified rules to generate a "more advanced, populous sector" - i.e. an older more developed one. Wouldn't the same be true for the Core, Vland, and other, older more developed sectors? That seems more logical to me but it makes any analysis using the GEnie or other data skewed in favor of all sectors looking like the frontier Marches (or a kind of underdeveloped neutral zone).

The worldgen rules I think were made to develop interesting, varied, and 'fun to adventure in' subsectors, which is great for the game. It just doesn't lead to accurate data for the whole Imperium.

 

[Anthony]

Originally posted by Rob D.:
Some interesting analyses here, but I think they're predicated on the assumption that the worldgen rules hold true for all sectors of the 3I. I don't believe that's the case.

Actually, they're predicated on the assumption that the sunbane/Genii data is not garbage. Other than some bugs with the random number generator, the Genii data matches book 2 distributions pretty well.

 

[rgd]

But that's my point - matching Book2 is fine for "frontier" or "subsectors of adventure!" but not for all subsectors of the 3I (at least for pop/gov/LL/TL), and assuming it does paints an incorrect picture of the 3I.

It's as if you took an impression of the US in 1870 from the frontier terrritories of the "Wild West" and extrapolated the entire country from that - you miss out on the New Yorks, San Franciscos, Chicagos, and other very different areas that are older and more developed.

 

[robject]

Actually, the assumption predates even Sunbane, coming from Atlas of the Imperium. But Rob's observation remains.

 

[robject]

In fact, there are other things working that makes the whole thing a Do Whatever You Like result.

First, the LBBs are not necessarily meant for frontier sectors: they're intended for settled space. Book 3 predates the Imperium.

Second, and probably corollary, the Spinward Marches isn't much of a frontier. The only sense in which that word really applies is as a border sector. Vargr to core. Zho to Core/Spin. Two sectors' worth of client states to Spin. Settled worlds to Rim. And Deneb to Trailing.

Third, the Marches was colonized relatively early in the 3I... and there's evidence that the Ziru Sirka got pretty close to it as well.

In that light, the Imperium appears pretty cosmopolitan. It all adds up to a background that organically grew at awkward angles.

Does that affect canon authors? Maybe. Does it affect our games? I guess not.

 

[parmasson]

I wonder at the volume of immigrants both within and outside of the imperium.

Most colonial population growth (at least here in North America) has come from immigration. In the long term (500-800 years) natural growth can do the trick but it seems that growth can flatten out or decrease depending on the economic conditions.

At Cr2000 before you include baggage the price to move is quite steep. The desperately poor will be cut out because they could not afford the ticket and the wealthy will not want to move unless there is a strong political or religious reason.

That leaves you with a creamy middle. Mostly non-titled skilled workers looking for a better economy or tradesmen looking for their own shop.

Is there any hint as to how many “one way” tickets are sold?

 

[rgd]

Originally posted by robject:
In fact, there are other things working that makes the whole thing a Do Whatever You Like result.

First, the LBBs are not necessarily meant for frontier sectors: they're intended for settled space. Book 3 predates the Imperium.

Good point.
But I still think my original point is valid - GDW used a modified worldgen system to get the Solomani Rim sector to look like they wanted it (older, developed), so using unmodified worldgen rules on Core or other older, developed sectors (most of them?) will likely give a skewed picture of the 3I.

Continuing my example above, imagine a Wild West RPG with rules for generating towns, set in 1860 frontier - where the PCs will adventure. No data for NY, Washington, Richmond, or any of the industrial centers of the U.S. Maybe Kansas City or other small cattledrive terminus. Would a similar analysis from those rules lead anyone to believe the federal government would have enough resources to win (or survive) the US Civil War? (cf. 3I and the size of it's Navy)

Second, and probably corollary, the Spinward Marches isn't much of a frontier. The only sense in which that word really applies is as a border sector. Vargr to core. Zho to Core/Spin. Two sectors' worth of client states to Spin. Settled worlds to Rim. And Deneb to Trailing.

Third, the Marches was colonized relatively early in the 3I... and there's evidence that the Ziru Sirka got pretty close to it as well.

True, it's not a frontier in the classic sense. It's been around for a long time. But the population and tech level variation that has so vexed many people point to it being an "underdeveloped" sector. (The old "if it's been colonized so long, why are there such variations in TL" argument.)

Mr. Whipsnade has described the Marches as kind of underdeveloped neutral zone (similar to, IIRC, Croatia/Bosnia/etc. circa 1910) where development funds don't come in because of the constant threat of war with the Zhos, Vargr raids, or Aslan (maybe). And without the catalyzing influx of funds from other, developed, worlds, the Marches are on their own to improve themselves. But the 3I (and Zhos) want the territory as a buffer zone between each other, so there's military presence. Just not a lot of development going on.

Personally, I picture the core sectors of the 3I as more like the Solomani Rim. It seems to make more sense to me, if they've been settled for so long - unless they're in a similar situation as the Marches, being a buffer zone. (But sectors like Diaspora and Old Expanses or Massila, were probably well developed before they became buffer zones with the Sol.Conf.)

I'd love to see the same analyses done with that assumption - use the same modifiers GDW used for the Sol.Rim on all the sectors - to give the other end of the spectrum. That would give refs a good range for the type of 3I they want for their TU.

In that light, the Imperium appears pretty cosmopolitan. It all adds up to a background that organically grew at awkward angles.

I agree. And despite the fact that it doesn't lend itself well to macroeconomic statistical analysis, I still love the setting.

Does that affect canon authors? Maybe. Does it affect our games? I guess not.

My only issue with the analyses is that they end up being used as "fact" when I think they represent one end of a spectrum of possible 3Is. And having a range is better, allowing different refs to have a game setting they like, and something I think GDW and successors tried to cultivate.

 

[Anthony]

Originally posted by Rob D.:
I'd love to see the same analyses done with that assumption - use the same modifiers GDW used for the Sol.Rim on all the sectors - to give the other end of the spectrum. That would give refs a good range for the type of 3I they want for their TU.

Hard to do without knowing what they are, though you can just look at the statistical distribution on the Solomani Rim and figure it's typical. Compare the
Rim to the Genii data, and you'll discover that the median TL of the Rim is slightly higher, the population density is significantly higher, not as many people live in hellholes, and the law level is slightly lower, though I think the last is a solomani tweak, not a long-settled-area tweak.

 

[Whipsnade]

Originally posted by Anthony:
... you'll discover that the median TL of the Rim is slightly higher, the population density is significantly higher...

Anthony,

Those are exactly the tweaks LKW has repeatedly written about on the TML and other Traveller fora. GDW generated the Rim with a population boosting tweak. They also applied a TL 'floor' and 'ceiling'. While they are fewer lo-tech worlds on the Rim, there are also fewer TL 15 worlds too.

... not as many people live in hellholes, and the law level is slightly lower, though I think the last is a solomani tweak, not a long-settled-area tweak.

Those are two tweaks I don't remember LKW ever mentioning. He very well could have, I simply don't know. While the hellhole tweak could have been done by hand, it would be intriguing to know how LL was manipulated. In CT sysgen, larger populations lead to 'higher' gov't codes which lead to higher LLs in turn.


Have fun,
Bill

 

[Anthony]

I think the Rim has a government code tweak; there are an unlikely number of Hi-pop worlds with government types 2 or 4 (there's a Hi-pop world with govt 2, which is impossible to roll with standard CT sysgen). That would result in a LL tweak.

The TL cap was 15; there are no TL 16 worlds in the Rim.