HSVU vs LSVU

[rancke]

Population 7 to 8 is NOT HiPop.

Who ever said it was? It is enough to produce a lot of goods, though.

That is reserved for pop 9+. As for what a world of 10 mil (pop 7) can export....no where nearly the tonnages that would make up a HVHT market.

I must have missed the definition of what makes up a HVMT market. Seems to me that if only high-population worlds can support a HVMT market, then the model is missing at least one factor, the MVMT market (M for medium).

As long as you're only operating with two possibilities and if LVMT markets are those where free traders are a significant component, then the dividing line is a long way lower than the high-pop/medium-pop line. We'd be down around pop 5 or pop 6.

As I said in my initial post, trade would be carried out by Free Traders and Subsidised merchant runs.

Free traders and subsidized merchants will not be a significant factor in trade between anything other than low- and low-medium population worlds.

I believe I mentioned that Luxury trade, Novelty trade and Personnel trade would be the main forms of trade. However since all three, by definition, are spec trade...

Where did you find a definition that made all luxury trade speculative? It's certainly not one I subscribe to, as I've tried to make clear. And how do you manage to equate spec trade with free traders exclusively? As I said before, even spec trade will go mostly by regular ships.

EDIT: If your definition of speculative trade is anything for which the buyer doesn't have a sales contract, you're including an awful lot of trade that isn't really speculative. Do fishermen engage in 'speculative fishing' because they sell their catch on auction? If you know that you will be able to sell the goods you're buying even if you don't have a contract to that effect, where's the speculation?


Hans

 

[Selandia]

in practical T5 terms

an air raft (not even the best case) = 4t, +2t for cargo storage= 6 ton volume (p.305)

cost of shipping for 6 tons = 6 Kcr

Cost of air raft 60 Kcr (p.305), shipping for import /cost for local 10%. (no where near a 1 to 100 ratio in manufacturing advantage is needed). As the price of the goods increase, shipping represent a decreasing %. Of course, bales of hay and jewellery have specific marketing

I am not even taking into account the fact that market segmentation may make specialized foreign object more desirable than local, even if local mass production is commercially viable.

US Import (CIA factbook, 2014): $2.334 trillion (2014 est.)
Lets say that 0.01 of that would be imported from Alpha centaury how many free trader would that be? Why nobody would set up regular line?

I am not even displacing local production, just taking a minute market share of what was already lost by USA.

Of course, the equation relating the purchasing power of current U$D to PurPow of TI Cr is open to discussion, but the order of magnitude seems sufficient to say that a pop 8 "world/country" will still import sufficiently (of higher value goods, or goods not otherwise available) to organize its interstellar trade beyond Adventure Class Economic and I will dare says even into the realm of High Volume

BTW using the Burger Index, a fast food meal as per p.697 seems to be 5 cr, but you could get a ground car for 6Kcr (p.305)

have fun

Selandia

 

[robject]

the costs of in-system shipping are an order of magnitude lower than even Jump 1.

On world is an order less still than in-system.

And 10 Pc? even if you don't apply a time requirement penalty, you're still looking at least one order of magnitude more than 1 Pc... and if time matters (fresh fruit travels only about 4 weeks before being worse than canned) 10 Pc becomes 1.5 orders higher, rather than 1.

I would suggest that TL may offer an order-of-magnitude balance against interstellar trade. And that it works, imperfectly, in both directions via imbalance trade.

So the cost of shipping goods one parsec is worthwhile if the source world has a one TL advantage over the target system.

I would argue that that sort of trade threatens in-system trade, and so the target system might have barriers to interstellar trade to support in-system colonies, if there are any.

Thus, it's safer to say that a two TL advantage overcomes one parsec's distance.

Does that mean a four TL advantage justifies a ten-parsec trade radius? And a six TL advantage confers a hundred-parsec trade radius?

How handy.

+2 TLs: 1 parsec
+3 TLs: 3 parsecs
+4 TLs: one subsector away
+5 TLs: one sector away
+6 TLs: across the empire

If so, then it seems reasonable that the Imperium sees large freighters (in the million-ton displacement class) ranging from trailing to spinward and back, carrying TL15 goods to whomever has contracted for a shipment. TL15 Rhylanor goods may be in demand by TL9 worlds in Antares. TL9 worlds will buy TL14 goods from one sector away, or TL13 goods from one subsector away.

 

[rancke]

Does that mean a four TL advantage justifies a ten-parsec trade radius? And a six TL advantage confers a hundred-parsec trade radius?

No, it means that (ignoring comparative advantage) a world will buy stuff that's +1TL from the nearest world with +1TL, +2TL stuff from the nearest +2TL world, etc.. Antares won't be buying common TL15 goods from Rhylanor, because there are TL15 worlds much closer.


Hans

 

[robject]

No, it means that (ignoring comparative advantage) a world will buy stuff that's +1TL from the nearest world with +1TL, +2TL stuff from the nearest +2TL world, etc.. Antares won't be buying common TL15 goods from Rhylanor, because there are TL15 worlds much closer.


Hans

Reasonable. This is a local interstellar economy, due to the high cost of travel.

 

[aramis]

No, it means that (ignoring comparative advantage) a world will buy stuff that's +1TL from the nearest world with +1TL, +2TL stuff from the nearest +2TL world, etc.. Antares won't be buying common TL15 goods from Rhylanor, because there are TL15 worlds much closer.


Hans

Even with comparative advantage, and manufactured goods averaging KCr5 per ton, getting sufficient comparative advantage to be worth even 5 Pc requires that the good not be doable with lower tech closer.

You've no good reason to buy TL15 goods from Rhylanor when TL12 from Regina is up to the task, and even that's not worth it if TL 9 local can do the task.

Not everyone (and especially not every world) buys into Western European & North American technophillia.

There are large stretches of the marches where even a 10:1 advantage on manufacture by a TL 15 world (and that's way high - canon is 10% per TL price advantage)

Given that the average value for manufactured small goods is KCr5, TL12 goodies made at TL 15 are KCr3.5, so if it ships more than 2 Pc, it's not worth it. Even for the owner operator, it's probably not worth it.

Now, at KCr50 per ton (certain high tech goods), the distance where a 3TL advantage is fundable is about 15Pc (cost to ship on owned transports is about KCr10; by commercial, closer to KCr15, the change in value)...

Add differential valuations of goods at destination, and maybe a bit more... you still don't get the high tech goodies going that far.

 

[savage]

So is anyone suggesting that the Ancients had a local economy because of the high cost of travel? Did Grandfather care about costs?

It seems that travel costs should change as TL increases, as suggested earlier.
That being said, golden age 3I OTU aside, high TL worlds (15+) should be able support large amounts of commerce "just because".

It's not logical that China builds cities it does not live in, but they do. They keep the construction industry moving forward and support it.

3I could have subsidized commerce along the mains "just because".

 

[Selandia]

Even with comparative advantage, and manufactured goods averaging KCr5 per ton, getting sufficient comparative advantage to be worth even 5 Pc requires that the good not be doable with lower tech closer.

You've no good reason to buy TL15 goods from Rhylanor when TL12 from Regina is up to the task, and even that's not worth it if TL 9 local can do the task..

A TL5 car factory does not face the chance of a snowball in hell when compared with a TL7 factory.

Yet, p305, a car is 1 dt, with cargo storage +2= 3dt, so 3Kcred shipping over a 6Kcr price require a 50 % advantage, even a TL+2 would not justify import....for the same car...then you ask: wana ride a 6,000 Cr Ford T or a 9,000 Cr Mustang (6,000 base + 3,000 shipping)?

Beside, sometime it is not so much the TL of the goodies but the manufacturing TL and the sub-assembly TL for near identical goodies. A standard strategy (job delocalisation anyone?) is cleaning the competition by figuring the manufacturing TL that balance local Human Ressource cost/potential with high productivity imported Tooling and setting up a factory. Then it must import specialized personnel and tooling spares, with maybe some of the expensive sub assemblies. The .1 dt 1,000 engine and electronic (10/dt, 10,000Cr/dton for 1,000cr transport) will provide some traffic.

So, the abstracted trade system of T5 may make some sense, in my opinion as long as we do not try to import coal to Cardiff. And yes I use a tl 3 made hammer (grampa's tool boxe) and if nobody loose it it will still be used in the 24 th century. If there is a sin in T5 trade, it is the attempt at using detailled cargo list. It deters from the macro-econimic simplicity of World's TC + TL value adjustments. But overall I can justify high volume interstellar trade on most world

have fun

Selandia

Not everyone (and especially not every world) buys into Western European & North American technophillia.

There are large stretches of the marches where even a 10:1 advantage on manufacture by a TL 15 world (and that's way high - canon is 10% per TL price advantage)

Given that the average value for manufactured small goods is KCr5, TL12 goodies made at TL 15 are KCr3.5, so if it ships more than 2 Pc, it's not worth it. Even for the owner operator, it's probably not worth it.

Now, at KCr50 per ton (certain high tech goods), the distance where a 3TL advantage is fundable is about 15Pc (cost to ship on owned transports is about KCr10; by commercial, closer to KCr15, the change in value)...

Add differential valuations of goods at destination, and maybe a bit more... you still don't get the high tech goodies going that far.

 

[JFGarber]

3I could have subsidized commerce along the mains "just because".

In a perhaps vain attempt to maintain a certain amount of cultural homogeneity?

I can see it now: "Our doughty heroes disembark, eager for new experiences. But first, they make a left turn into the Astro Fried Chicken for a #2 meal." Suffer 1D hits to END.

 

[robject]

So is anyone suggesting that the Ancients had a local economy because of the high cost of travel? Did Grandfather care about costs?

It seems that travel costs should change as TL increases, as suggested earlier.

That's a fun question worth running down for a bit.

Yes, you could say they had a "local economy", but you'd have to define "local".

The Ancients achieved at least TL 31 (Pocket Universes). Thus they had tremendous transportation gains over us lowly Imperials.

And granted, scatter is a problem, as may be obstructions at very long ranges. Reality Manipulation at least takes care of the latter, and might also suffice for the former. If not, then a smaller-order drive is called for... and that has design implications. Until scatter is taken care of, you'd need a bunch of drives, each one order of magnitude shorter-ranged and more precise than the last, until you can hit your destination.

A clever(?) Ancient might well create several more-or-less functionally identical target worlds in a cluster, so that Hop scatter is mitigated without the need for a jump drive...

So yes to "local", but "local" is a lot bigger than at TL15.

 

[savage]

That's a fun question worth running down for a bit.

Yes, you could say they had a "local economy", but you'd have to define "local".
...
A clever(?) Ancient might well create several more-or-less functionally identical target worlds in a cluster, so that Hop scatter is mitigated without the need for a jump drive...

So yes to "local", but "local" is a lot bigger than at TL15.

It is funny. So, we're suggesting that higher TL results has less need for transport and commerce. Perhaps the Ancients fit into the exception being very alien.
Humanity based on today's marketing will ship and buy from anywhere not because its affordable but because it's cool. Those Italian shoes, French purses, German lagers, American cars, etc may equate to GP Yachts, Dephi Free Traders, Capital Space Suits, or Terran Ale.

It's not all based on economics, but sometimes on emotions of what someone wants. And then what is the resale value of that off world, rare product. Does it justify additional material. That applies to the luxury products, but would it work for the the sector's favorite farm tractor. They open several factories throughout the sector because it provides competition to any local brands. Sooner or later those luxury products become much more common. Possibly common through patents. Manufacturers might be selling production rights to local producers after a products popularity skyrockets.

"Subsidized" shipping is the key, as is era. If we're talking far far future then a 3I that did not rebel may be pretty active in commerce at TL18 if the Imperial Family chooses heavy commerce. Heavy commerce/ transport also improves ability to expand. Vargr Extents attacked during the rebellion (MT) because of halt in trading activities which resulted in economic issues in neighboring VE. MT absolutely had a large ship twist.

T5 was weighted towards a small ship universe. It may not provide the best example of how to analyze the HSVU vs LSVU scenarios.

 

[rancke]

Even with comparative advantage, and manufactured goods averaging KCr5 per ton, getting sufficient comparative advantage to be worth even 5 Pc requires that the good not be doable with lower tech closer.

True. But even without looking at luxuries, there are plenty of goods that are not doable at lower tech.

You've no good reason to buy TL15 goods from Rhylanor when TL12 from Regina is up to the task, and even that's not worth it if TL 9 local can do the task.

Porozlo has the reason of lower transportation costs to buy TL15 stuff from Rhylanor even when said stuff is not better than TL12 stuff.

There are large stretches of the marches where even a 10:1 advantage on manufacture by a TL 15 world (and that's way high - canon is 10% per TL price advantage)

This sentence appears to be unfinished.

Given that the average value for manufactured small goods is KCr5, TL12 goodies made at TL 15 are KCr3.5, so if it ships more than 2 Pc, it's not worth it. Even for the owner operator, it's probably not worth it.

Given that an average value for manufactured small goods of KCr5 isn't worth shipping more than 2 parsecs, logically the average value of stuff being shipped more than 2 parsecs is higher than KCr5.

Add differential valuations of goods at destination, and maybe a bit more... you still don't get the high tech goodies going that far.

But all they have to do in order to support interstellar shipping in decent amounts is to go any distance at all. (Any interstellar distance, that is).

I'm not suggesting that interstellar goods are shipped in amounts similar to intraplanetary amounts. Just that they are shipped in amounts that can't be handled by a mere handful of free traders.


Hans

 

[rancke]

The Ancients probably break known trade patterns by being, by comparison with anything we know, amazingly rich.


Hans

 

[kilemall]

Hmmm, probably without knowing the exact rule, I think I detect another example of a common pattern in all these Traveller trade schemes, a tendency to design to a UWP-driven result matrix rather then actual supply/demand, and the unspoken iron law of the standard transport rates.

I also think the classic 10% price/currency underlying canon economics is laughable given what we know about massive shifts with just a few key technologies at our 'low' tech levels.

I would make the starport level, pop, TL and LL be the main determinants of raw tonnage. The concept is the higher the TL the margin there is for highly specialized items or cultural desires due to a greater level of wealth and activity and raw material use/conversion at cheaper energy rates, the starport x pop captures how big of a customer/producer base there is, and law level affects interstellar trade due to higher costs/legal/bribery barriers.

Try this formula on for size-

Starport value
A=50
B=20
C=5
D=3
E=1


SV x (POP + TL- LL) = tonnage moved through starport in a week, in hundreds of tons.

So an A starport
A pop
15 TL
9 LL planet gets 75,000 tons moving through there,

a C starport
5 pop
11 TL
7 LL planet gets 4500 tons,

and a played out mining hovel
E starport
3 pop
7 TL
3 LL gets 700 tons.

As you can see, a player's free trader arrival could herald a significant percentage of the activity a low end habitation will see for a week.


Adjust as you like with the trade classifications against the pop value for Rich, Poor, etc. You can also increase or decrease the tonnage by a factor of 10-100 if you see trade being much more active or smaller.

You can figure out the percentage that is import or export, and relative value.

For instance, an Ag planet may move 80% of it's tons export, but still be coming out even and barely pay for it's imports since it's mostly cheaper food products, and possibly a lot of empty tons going to the planet or loss of profit speculative cargos due to the lower prices the Ag planet can pay.

So using that as a base, you can get a feel for how 'interstellar active' the planet is, how much tonnage is there for some supercargo ships to be run by the big lines, and where all that tonnage is going (a lot could be in-system, depending, but most would be headed towards the more active ports).

This formula also suggests that planets who want more trade will need to generate enough tonnage to pay for that starport facilities, and that they need to look at their whole producer/customer/tech/law picture to stimulate activity.

It also occurs to me that local gov/nobles/owners/corps may have an artificially high LL in place for protectionist purposes.

 

[kilemall]

But, independent of that sort of calc, I think intelligently designed trade patterns and play will trump standardized formula.

Example, the Vilani Core has either likely used up every scrap of Lanthanum in several thousand years of interstellar industry, or has it roped off for X amount used per decade for longevity/stability purposes which nearly limits it to the same as empty.

So there should be a great big sucking sound as every sector surrounding that area has greater shipbuilding resources builds the parts, the ships themselves or at least ships usable alloy to the Core.

Won't show up on a formulaic chart, that has to be built in by a ref.

Another example, a rich mineral strike is complemented by an additional discovery of cheap energy source close by that makes smelting locally very inexpensive.

A rush ensues, with a 20% export/80% import mix that belies the rich nature of the exported metal, every necessity and not a few luxuries are imported at great profit since there is no such thing as local industry, and passenger lists that need to be adjusted for the thousands clamoring to get there.

Which brings up the point that the pricing range percentages of most Traveller I have seen snippets of are if anything very conservative, there should be more boom/bust make money while you can, variable cargo/passenger rates based on amenities/speed/reputation/situation, oh no dry spell super interstellar line is pricing below cost in rate war, need to move to subsector next door stuff.

All to get the players involved rather in their environment rather then counting on things to stay stable.

A third example, US retail makes most of it's money during the Christmas season, just 2 months out of the year, with a huge shipping and postal surge accompanying this activity, including every truck, plane, and subcontracted shipping employee driving their own vehicles pitching in.

A Traveller holiday that has a huge shipping component won't show up on any chart, it needs to be put in by a ref and made part of a extra profit opportunity in a wilder boom/bust cycle then the charts belie.

Plus, "The Corsair That Stole Christmas" is an adventure just begging to happen.

Bottom line, I'd be focusing on putting some driving forces and personal interaction into making a living universe and that's going to involve thinking through how it works rather then concerning myself with making questionable definitions work.

 

[robject]

I would make the starport level, pop, TL and LL be the main determinants of raw tonnage.

...which sounds similar to Importance...

[...] [and] higher costs/legal/bribery barriers.

...which sounds similar to RU.

Try this formula on for size-

Starport value
A=50
B=20
C=5
D=3
E=1


SV x (POP + TL- LL) = tonnage moved through starport in a week, in hundreds of tons.

 

[kilemall]

...which sounds similar to Importance...

...which sounds similar to RU.

<Shrug> not being familiar with T5 or most of the intervening editions, I'm sure several of my ideas are 'reinventing the wheel', just throwing them out there as alternative starting thinking points.

The main takeaway should be to use the rules as starting points for creativity in rendering an adventurous universe, not the dead hand of rules lawyering or precise economic modeling.

 

[robject]

<Shrug> not being familiar with T5 or most of the intervening editions, I'm sure several of my ideas are 'reinventing the wheel', just throwing them out there as alternative starting thinking points.

The main takeaway should be to use the rules as starting points for creativity in rendering an adventurous universe, not the dead hand of rules lawyering or precise economic modeling.

Yeah, I came off as a bit of a jerk there. Sorry about that, didn't mean to. Afterwards I realized that your suggestions are, in a way, validation.

And, amen to your takeaway points.

 

[kilemall]

Yeah, I came off as a bit of a jerk there. Sorry about that, didn't mean to. Afterwards I realized that your suggestions are, in a way, validation.

And, amen to your takeaway points.

None taken.

I tend to spew rules mods like Niagara Falls has running water. Perhaps you noticed.

 

[rancke]

...which sounds similar to RU.

Including the use of population level instead of population size, which makes the rule work very badly.


Hans