I was extremely inspired and enthusiastic about ideas sparked by a single line of Larsen's writing. He mentioned that power drills break down and it's hard to fabricate replacement parts. In the post quoted below, he questions whether it's possible to maintain high tech-level equipment at a lower TL.
It's interesting to examine Larsen's points in detail. He initially seems excessively confident, but upon careful examination he has a very specific constraint -- he's addressing the case where relatively unskilled folks who had desk jobs in a TL 8+ society try to start over with TL 4 and no special survival training.
I could post points about wilderness survival, organic farming, renewable power, and industrial engineering until my fingers fall off, but I doubt that will interest Larsen. In fact, the main thrust of my argument will probably be of interest only to organic farmers and home power engineers, so I'll post my full argument to the real-world forums that would have some chance of being interested in it.
However, the oversimplified rough draft of my ideas might conceivably be useful to Traveller gamers who only want to simulate colony building, not do the real-life activities which resemble it. So I'll post some eleven points.
1. The basic variance in definitions
Originally posted by Larsen E. Whipsnade:
"However, Assuming that the colony isn't funded by something with deep pockets,... (snip) ... won't be able to rely on a steady stream of imports from it's home world, I'd think you would need to plan on the colony being low tech and self sufficient..."
Sure, sounds goods to me.
"... until it has enough of a population base to have the specilized workers that are required to sustain a tech level above about 4."
Okay, let's stop at this point. Elsewhere in your post you mention a colony size of 1000 sophonts. What I'm trying to get across here is that 1000 people is nowhere near enough to sustain a tech level of 4. Period.
The question is not adequately defined. As Buckminster Fuller told us, technology consists of both artifacts and information -- and we can break that down further into many, many details of social structures, personal skills, tool maintenance, etc. (Incidentally, Marc Miller's linear model of tech levels is nowhere near detailed enough to satisfy my engineering-whetted appetite for detail. But you all knew that already. I'll save the linear optimization comments for another forum.)
I agree that a bunch of unemployed office workers from a TL 8 society cannot possibly survive without support.
However, if you trained them in wilderness survival and released them on a planet with abundant game, they could simply revert to hunting. And if you trained them in enough engineering, they could survive at TL 8 or so. It's possible that they *couldn't* survive at TL 4 -- they would have to go above it or below it.
2. The cost of labor
Originally posted by Larsen E. Whipsnade:
Most everyone here is seriously underestimating the amount of work that needs to be done.
Disclaimer: maybe at TL 4. Definitely not using TL 8+.
I'll indicate some specific real-world technologies to show that food can be very, very cheap and labor can be spared on an organic farm.
The short version is: high tech organic farming can be done in less than an hour per day. Skilled engineers could easily grow enough food for themselves as a daily chore and still have their main efforts left over for engineering.
3. The irrelevance of location
Originally posted by Larsen E. Whipsnade:
"I think the location would be the most important."
Naturally.
"It would have to be close to fresh water (A river or two, not a lake), near mineral resources (nice near-surface deposits preferred), and have plenty of farmland/pasture available. A nice big forest nearby would be good too, as well as a place to make a quarry for stone, or near limestone so you can make concrete. You would want to pick a spot that was geologically stable, and had decent weather."
Nice list. Leave anything out? Liquor stores? Pawn shops? Here's a little experiment for you; open an atlas of Earth and find a location that meets all the requirements you listed. Remember, all those nice bits your listed; quarried stone, fields, forests, surface mineral deposits of oh so many types, and all the rest need to be about one day's journey from your colony. Notice I measured the distance in days rather than kilometers because it will all depend on what sort of transportation you have. Feet? Think 20 km. Horses? Maybe 40 km. Remember, anything beyond feet; even horses, is going to require an infrastructure that most everyone in this thread continually underestimates. Don't forget, if you'll only be using 'feet', your porters won't be able to carry that much and they'll all need to EAT.
As mentioned above, engineers can feed themselves given sufficient initial investment.
Location is *not* very important, and I'll explain why it isn't.
Suppose the initial landing party lands in a place with good geothermal properties, plentiful water, and seismic stability. Their first action is to drill some big tunnels -- at least one vertical tunnel to drive a geothermal power unit, plus a couple horizontal ones to house equipment and personnel.
They install their geothermal turbines and generators. Boom. More than enough electricity. No dependence on fuel, sunlight, etc. No need to build a quonset hut to house the generators -- just drill out as much space as you need. If anything, the biggest problem will be carting away all the broken rock so that there's enough room to maneuver.
Soon they're using electricity, water, and possibly atmospheric air to store their excess electricity in hydrogen form.
So location is not very important. They don't need a whole lot of raw materials. Obviously good geothermal properties are preferable to mediocre ones, and drilling has to be very cheap -- but drilling is getting cheap even in the real world. Wired Magazine recently wrote that drilling has gotten so cheap that an underground real estate boom is expected. Note geothermal drilling requires higher-quality drills that can withstand higher temperatures than normal drills.
4. The irrelevance of many (but not all) surveys
Originally posted by Larsen E. Whipsnade:
"If you were smart, you would have already done extensive surveys of the planet to locate sources of iron, copper, natural gas, coal, oil, uranium, etc, so when you did get the infrastructure to use them, you would know where to find them."
Sure, if you can afford the surveys. This is all going to be on the cheap, right? Also, there's a very BIG difference between orbital and airborne surveys and actually pinpointing where to DIG.
You don't need many surveys. I presume that the first farm equipment will be brought in with the humans -- including the geothermal turbines. You need hot rocks, high-quality water, and drilling equipment.
The water has to be high quality because you don't want to need to purify it much before using it for nutrition and industrial processes.
5. The possibility of extremely small populations
Originally posted by Larsen E. Whipsnade:
"The next thing you need is people. I wouldn't bother with less than 1000 people."
Try going up an order of magnitude at least, maybe two. Food production at TL4 and lower is labor intensive. All your 'specialists'; blacksmiths, miners, lumberjacks, quarrymen, etc. need to EAT.
"You would also need a lot of raw materials."
Yup and everyone producing those raw materials needs to EAT.
I recently read of an organic farm that lists its employees as "one farmer, one hired hand, and fifty billion earthworms."
I think it was on the same website that I read that food production in many primitive societies was *not* labor intensive. That's a problem for an archaeologist or anthropologist, though, and I'm interested in the industrial engineering aspect.
However, a highly diverse range of raw materials should not be needed initially.
However, given the amazing food production of organic farming, I would not surprised if it were possible to have a lot of mineral extractors in the colony, each of whom had a personal organic garden and fish-tank for food purposes.
Note that the tunnel habitation concept is ideal for food production. Electric lights can be accelerated to produce vegetable food much faster than natural sunlight. Tunnels provide very cheap, very capacious living space so that every human can have very large fish-tanks filled with a diverse range of aquatic food species, including both flora and fauna, and possibly some exotic items like spirulina.
Note that I would expect every citizen to maintain some volume of soil, if only a personal compost supply. Citizens will need to be willing to live in close proximity to a small-scale compost factory, and that may require highly motivated, highly conscientious citizens. Managing compost is not as intellectually abstract as gauge theory, but it does require a willingness to keep rats out of the compost boxes.
Note that tunnel-digging needs to be very, very cheap and water needs to be very, very available -- because compost and soil management require lots of water!
6. The easy solution to the problem of shelter
Originally posted by Larsen E. Whipsnade:
"The first year would be the hardest, since you probably won't have enough food production to keep up with the demand."
No. The second year will be the toughest after you've used up all the stuff you brought with yourself and are thrown back on your own resources.
"And the colonists are going to be spending a lot of time on construction projects. People need places to sleep."
Lumber and nails. Ever think about what it takes to make nails in the quantity you're talking about? Going to use wooden pegs instead? Okay, produce all the lumber you'll need. There's much, much more to that then just chopping down a tree. Bricks? Fine, let's talk raw materials for the bricks AND the mortar. Do you know what goes into a brick? Or where to find it? Oh, you'll also need to fire the bricks. Back to lumbering again.
Oh, boy, a year's worth of food -- can you imagine how much nutritious compost you could get out of that? The earthworms would be eating like kings!
Put some industrial engineers and organic farmers into a nice, capacious tunnel complex with a year's worth of food, and within a year they would have high-quality soil for themselves, plus possibly some non-toxic, low-quality soil which could be safely dumped outside.
But they don't need bricks or large quantities of lumber.
These would probably hippie tree-huggers, so they would favor reforestation anyway...
7. The easy solution to roads, drainage, and sewage
Originally posted by Larsen E. Whipsnade:
"Roads need to be built. Drainage and sewage needs to be figured out."
And every hand involved in that won't be producing food.
As mentioned above, every hand probably produces food for an hour every day and has more than enough that way.
Roads do not need to be built. In fact, tunnels exist primarily to be lived in and not to serve as transportation.
When you live underground, you have a *lot* of volume to work with. So you can have a lot of people with personal vegetable gardens, fish-tanks, compost boxes, etc. living with lots of room within walking distance.
Drainage and sewage, of course, are the first problem solved by compost! There might be additional problems with condensation on the walls.
Air circulation might be a nontrivial problem.
Also, garbage collection would be non-trivial. Source separation would be vitally necessary.
8. The methane/biofuel solution to internal combustion problems
Originally posted by Larsen E. Whipsnade:
"I'd use something besides gasoline for fuel."
Sure. Tell us what.
"You can ferment just about anything organic if you try hard enough. Alcohol based engines can be pretty efficient."
Let's stop here again. Yes, alcohol engines can be efficient, but you won't be building any at TL4. Petroleum didn't win out over coal, alcohol, and the others because some big bad oil company stacked the deck. Petroleum won out because it was easy to gather (at first), easy to distill, and packed a bigger energy wallop than the other choices. With the weight of the engines you'll be building at TL4, you're going to need all the 'whallop' you'll need.
Now let's tackle fermenting stuff to get alcochol. You'll need to grow and harvest (or gather from the wild) enough biomass. The you'll need to heat it in tanks, collect the runoff, and distill that a few times. You'll need hands to supply the biomass, hands to build the tanks, hands to supply the materials to build the tanks, hands to tend the tanks, hands to supply the fuel to distill the runoff, hands to build the piping, hands to... well, hopefully you've got the idea now.
I feel a little guilty for using your point as a spring-board, because you're talking about TL 4 and I'm talking about modern-day organic farming.
However, I can't help but mention that methane and biofuels are an excellent renewable resource -- not that the geothermal/hydrogen system would depend on them.
Probably each individual would hand-carry their compost buckets to the neighborhood anaerobic digester -- and that would produce methane and higher-quality compost.
There are cow farms that can produce electricity from cow dung as well as milk from the cows! Is that not miraculous? Of course cows would not be suitable livestock for this settlement, but pigs might be adaptable enough.
I want to stress that organic farms have very low labor costs, so that there won't be an issue of recruiting full-time sugar-cane harvesters to produce raw materials. Everything is a raw material to an organic farmer -- so just don't waste anything, and you'll have all the raw materials that you need.
9. The effortless ease of copper wire
Originally posted by Larsen E. Whipsnade:
"They can not only run cars, but they can also make electricity. There is also wind and water power, which you can use to make electricity. Heck, you can use steam power to produce electricity,..."
Got any idea about how much copper WIRE goes into a generator or motor? (If you have a few dozen motors/generators, start with KILOMETERS) Or how much refined copper is needed to draw that wire? Or how much ore is needed to create the refined copper? Or the energy and material needs your copper refining process will require? Or how many workers you'll need to exploit the ore body? Or the coal pit? Or the refinery? Or the wire shop? Or the winding shop where you make the motors and generators?
Copper wire will require work. But that doesn't have to be laborious. If the main population is engineers, producing copper wire will be a solved problem. They won't have to tackle it right away. (Which is a good thing, because they didn't bother to set up shop near a known copper deposit.)
They arrive and dig tunnels first. Then they set up prebuilt equipment (turbines, fish tanks, compost factories). Then they make sure they're using their water optimally (e.g. bottling the oxygen and hydrogen instead of flaring them).
Once that is figured out, they can stop eating MREs. Assume that working out the kinks of production takes them a year. They have dug a lot of tunnels and they've probably done some prospecting. They have huge amounts of electricity to power their equipment. They could even produce so much food that the MREs get eaten by prospectors and the city folks eat fresh food.
If they find minerals far away, they have hydrogen/electricity/methane to power some ATVs to go get ore samples. If they find a high quality vein of useful ore -- e.g. copper -- they can drill a tunnel directly to it. (Personal oxygen bottles might be useful if you have to make a long underground trip in a poorly ventilated ATV...)
11. The effortless ease of electrical engineering
Originally posted by Larsen E. Whipsnade:
"If you have power, then you are one big step closer to being self sufficient."
Sure thing. IF you can build the generating equipment in the first place AND keep it supplied.
Ever rewind a generator? Ever do it correctly? You'll need to do so in order to produce the right 'juice' otherwise you'll burn out all you motors. Remember, you'll be producing AC if you're planning on transmitting the juice more than a kilometer or so. By the way, know how to build a transformer? Know what raw and refined materials go into one?
Even at 'just' TL4, there one HELL of a lot of work that needs doing and your colony simply won't have the hands to do it.
Okay, so once again we're talking about modern engineers, not TL 8 desk jockeys trying to live with TL 4 tools.
But presumably there are a fair number of engineers who want to live in a self-sufficient colony. They don't need much training to function as organic farmers, given modern equipment to start them off.
Now, even an electrical engineer who can write C++ and design microchips can't build a generator without extra training. Many electrical engineers haven't touched a soldering iron since undergraduate coursework.
But I think it is possible to enumerate a list of reasonable infrastructure requirements and to go with tools that are designed to be maintainable.
One reason why I am motivated to research organic farming is that self-sufficiency is good engineering. A few days before I read Larsen's comments on the need for O-rings to fix broken power drills, I was looking at my IE 572 notes and trying to remember why I had taken an industrial engineering course. I'm not an engineer myself. But Larsen's comments inspired me to pull together a lot of thoughts on the anthropology of technology.
So Larsen, thank you. If you have any good sources on how to analyze and enumerate technological dependencies, I would be interested. To me it looks like an anthropology problem as well as an industrial engineering problem. Actually, it's like the engineering program I wanted to take which wasn't available at my school -- Systems Engineering -- a highly interdisciplinary field.
Space combat and firefights are slightly inspiring. Industrial engineering and ecology is *very* inspiring to me. I always said that the most fun part of Traveller was that it forced me to learn hexadecimal notation. This Larsen-inspired industrial engineering rant is the same kind of phenomenon -- sci-fi which inspires me to look more closely at real-world technology.