Wounded Colossus

[Easterner9504]

Finished reading the Wounded Colossus which was excellent and thought provoking as usual. I'd have jumped at it in a minute instead of REBELLION against which I rebelled then I completely skipped TNE, picked up my CT and went home for 12 tears or so.

The fall of Lucan is right sounding. Much as Napoleon converted all the King's troops after leaving Elba sent to stop him. Dulinor I couldn't say (my ignorance) but I will accept your view. I do believe your comment on reformers being dilettantes to be true.

I would see the Vargr as first dealt with (refer to speed here I'm sure he's meeting the three outside threats simultaneously) It re-opens path to Marches and allows Imperium to deal with Trojan Reach Aslan.

I think it was Rancke who said he never bought the Ihatei Invasions as feasible because Aslan too fragmented to co-ordinate such a massive multi-sector assault. I would agree or claim it for my own if no one said it However an exception would be if there was something behind the Aslan pushing them as Hsing-Nu pushed the Germans westward towards Rome. In which case Bill's easy victory wouldn't happen. However assuming there is no external pressure the Bill version is fine and logical.

The Empress Wave is to my knowledge no threat to the Imperium. It burns out or alters Psi's, awakens some latents and has no affect on norms, only Zho's doomed. No one will miss either group. So I don't see doom coming unless canon has multi EW versions a-coming. That wouldn't surprise me in the least.

Nobles an odd problem. developed slowly from LBB where PC's could be one to GURPS NOBLES that actually describes them. The problem is when GDW invented UPP it also had UWP's. UWP showed Imperium packed to rafters with very non-noble friendly worlds with dictators, cabals, republics, theocracies. How exactly does a noble rule an Amber world that lynches him 5 minutes after arrival? What noble rules Dinom after Commie Rev, it doesn't seem to have left Imperium. the non-interferance rule brought many worlds into Imperium and Emperor's writ covered space and extrality. Yet any world with an Imperial Noble would rule world in Emperor's name meaning in theory Emperor's writ rules the entire world with the Noble's duty to execute it, in theory. However the feudalistic nobles Bill describes does indeed appear to be canon, but based on UWP's I always saw nobles as post-WW2 nobles not Middle Ages types. The point being I never saw Imperium as unstable but obviously an Imperium run like 900AD would be prone to fail. One thing ignored is that the Imperium is not truly human run, it's Bwap run that changes a number of dynamics. Also like your Rome analogy the 3I of Strephon is not the same as 3I of Margie or Cleon.

In addition IMTU I've always seen Travellers as a psycho-history phenomenon. The 1st and 2nd Impies fell from inertia that set in over time. The Bwap bureaucracy took care of the 2nd I's fall by allowing better administration. Traveller phenomenon prevents inertia of 1st I's fall. Travs for no particular reason zip about the 3I either Dumarest style or as ships crews. They are called upon (by design) frequently to fix "problems" when on-worlders can't. They spread new ideas about the 3I keeping things fresh. as we discussed in SJG forums there may be "rights of appeal" and other off-worlder protections that cause the 3I to take Travellers into custody after say blowing up Arglebargles main-water plant (and secret bio-weapon site) then free them so they can continue travelling. IMTU

Solomani

Here I disagree completely. A negotiated settlement far more likely to work and frees up fleets to deal with Vargr and Aslan. I see no sign the Confeds are composed of captive states.

Bootean Federation (Solomani Rim)

Grand United States of Quesada (Aldebaran)

Hanuman Systems (Langere)

Kostov Confederate Republic (Neworld)

Old Earth Union (Solomani Rim)

Protectorate of Alba (Alpha Leonis)

Protectorate of Cthonia (Alpha Leonis)

Third Reformed French Confederate Republic (Aldebaran)

Turin Consolidation (Alpha Leonis)

SOLSEC interferes with Spanish and French governments leaving several states alone (and to hard-rights disgust) to develop better relations with Aliens. Cthonia churns out military geniuses by the gross and is sharing their secret with their fellow states. Kukulcan is just an aggressive tradewar not an anti-SC war.

The SC has been preparing for war for a century, they've studied the last wars failure of 'scattered forces trying to defend everywhere that ends up defending nothing' and OE fell this time instead of Rim Wars fanatical resistance that depleted Sols fleet strength. The Cthonian's are likely to inflict so many defeats on the 3I the cost of war is prohibitive. By negotiating: the Vegan's stay Imperial, some taken and untaken worlds get plebiscites to choose sides and SC gets formal recognition and full trade/diplomatic recognition freeing them to tend to matters Rimward. Gets restive elements out of Imperium, forges new ties among human MR's, frees forces for other operations and shrinks with honor the overly bloated 3I. Chissano civil war may or may not breakout, SOLSEC may or may not loose strength.

 

[rancke]

I think it was Rancke who said he never bought the Ihatei Invasions as feasible because Aslan too fragmented to co-ordinate such a massive multi-sector assault. I would agree or claim it for my own if no one said it However an exception would be if there was something behind the Aslan pushing them as Hsing-Nu pushed the Germans westward towards Rome.

Pushing the Aslans into the Imperium (or just the Domain of Deneb) is like pushing water uphill. A few splashes may reach the top, but most of the water will follow the path of least resistance (spinwards into Touchstone and The Beyond).

Or, if there's a huge, near-empty moat halfway up the hill (= the Outrim Void in this analogy), a good part of the water may end up in it.

Nobles an odd problem. developed slowly from LBB where PC's could be one to GURPS NOBLES that actually describes them. The problem is when GDW invented UPP it also had UWP's. UWP showed Imperium packed to rafters with very non-noble friendly worlds with dictators, cabals, republics, theocracies. How exactly does a noble rule an Amber world that lynches him 5 minutes after arrival?

He doesn't; that's why the Imperium is not reeally a feudal structure but at best an empire with a few pseudo-feudal touches.

What noble rules Dinom after Commie Rev, it doesn't seem to have left Imperium.

Before the revolution, the owners talked to Dinom's baron if they had issues of an interstellar nature. After the revolution, the Worker's Council talked to the same person if they had issues of an interstellar nature. In neither case did or do they take orders from him. (They might, however, be real receptive to his suggestions ).

...the non-interferance rule brought many worlds into Imperium and Emperor's writ covered space and extrality. Yet any world with an Imperial Noble would rule world in Emperor's name meaning in theory Emperor's writ rules the entire world with the Noble's duty to execute it, in theory.

They may execute the Emperor's writ when said writ touches their worlds, but the whole point of the non-interference clauses is that his writ doesn't touch their worlds in most cases.

However the feudalistic nobles Bill describes does indeed appear to be canon, but based on UWP's I always saw nobles as post-WW2 nobles not Middle Ages types.

I see them more as Imperial ombudsmen (in the case of nobles lower than dukes) and hereditary governors (the dukes).

The point being I never saw Imperium as unstable but obviously an Imperium run like 900AD would be prone to fail. One thing ignored is that the Imperium is not truly human run, it's Bwap run that changes a number of dynamics.

Indeed, the impact of Bwaps on the Imperial Bureaucracy has not been examined the way it ought to be. How many Bwaps are there? How are they distributed in terms of rank? How much are they allowed/required to impact on bureaucratic procedure? What are the ramifications?


Hans

 

[Whipsnade]

The fall of Lucan is right sounding.

E9504,

Thank you. I tried very hard to use historical analogies.

Dulinor I couldn't say (my ignorance) but I will accept your view. I do believe your comment on reformers being dilettantes to be true.

Dulinor had trouble keeping his Federation together even when he was fighting an evidently genocidal, lunatic, murderer like Lucan. I believed that when faced with the actual, legal, 100% real Emperor everyone is rallying around, and the Emperor he had claimed to have killed already, Dulinor would have even more trouble keeping his polity together.

Also, MT mentions many Ilelish nobles at the Imperial Moot on Sylea who weren't part of Dulinor's plot. In the OTL Lucan's idiocy and paranoia prevents him from using them, but in the ATL Strephon isn't as idiotic or paranoid.

I would see the Vargr as first dealt with (refer to speed here I'm sure he's meeting the three outside threats simultaneously) It re-opens path to Marches and allows Imperium to deal with Trojan Reach Aslan.

I gave the Alien Incursions short shrift because they're wholly implausible. Given MT's own assumptions, neither the Vargr or Aslan would be able to do what MT says they do. Because of this, I spent less time explaining how Strephon would combat them.

The Empress Wave is to my knowledge no threat to the Imperium.

Strephon believed that the signals picked up by Longbow II were so important that he departed Sylea leaving behind a clone to meet one of his few Archdukes and traveled incognito to the project see them for himself. Whether or not you or I feel the Empress Wave is important, Strephon felt it was immensely important and Strephon is the man who counts.

Also like your Rome analogy the 3I of Strephon is not the same as 3I of Margie or Cleon.

Again, thank you. Sadly canon wants us to believe that the Imperium of Strephon is nearly identical to that of Arbellatra.

Solomani. Here I disagree completely. A negotiated settlement far more likely to work and frees up fleets to deal with Vargr and Aslan.

Strephon's goal is a negotiated settlement. He just wants the Solomani to ask for those negotiations.

The idea in the short term is to force the Solomani to admit they've lost. Not to destroy the Confederation, but to make them realize they've lost. The idea in the long term is to break or dilute the revanchist feelings within the Confederation. I'll explain that further below.

I see no sign the Confeds are composed of captive states.

If MT's Solomani & Aslan were more readily available and you had the chance to read it, you would see that the Confederation includes any number of captive and/or restive states. The Confederation has a number of uber-patriotic member states who gleefully volunteer for the punitive campaigns regularly launched to keep restive members in line. Among the volunteers is an apartheid-based polity which brings home slaves from their campaigns.

The SC has been preparing for war for a century, they've studied the last wars...

In planning to fight the last war, the Solomani are going to lose the current one.

... OE fell this time instead of Rim Wars fanatical resistance that depleted Sols fleet strength.

You're forgetting that during the last Rim War, the Solomani began with possession of the Old Expanses and the Imperium merely advanced through it. When the war began the Solomani controlled nearly all of the Solomani Sphere. Individual worlds here and there had sucessfully petitioned the Imperium for removal from the Sphere's political framework but those systems didn't change their physical location. The Solomani's troubles in the Old Expanses during the First Rim War wasn't one of conquering the reigion, the trouble was one of dealing with rebellion and resistence behind their lines.

You're also laboring under the misconception that a majority of the worlds within the borders of the old Sphere or in the Rim Sector want to see a return of the Confederation. Canon suggest there are some that do, but canon never implies that they are even a simple majority.

The Cthonian's are likely to inflict so many defeats on the 3I the cost of war is prohibitive.

I find the trope of "super generals/admirals" to be just that, a trope. I'm also not familiar with these claims about the Cthonians so I can't judge them.

By negotiating: the Vegan's stay Imperial, some taken and untaken worlds get plebiscites to choose sides...

No. The Solomani want the entire Sphere back. They aren't going to allow the Vegans to stay with the Imperium, they want to punish the Vegans for their treason during the First Rim War.

As for plebiscites, it was the Solomani's continued refusal to allow or acknowledge the results of plebiscites that led to the First Rim War. Worlds within the Sphere wanted to remove themselves from the Sphere's political framework and, when the Imperium allowed that to happen, the Solomani began preparing for war.

... and SC gets formal recognition and full trade/diplomatic recognition freeing them to tend to matters Rimward.

That's the long term idea I wrote of above. There's going to be no ceasefire cum de facto peace treaty this time around, no loopholes for irredentists on either side to rationalize their acts as being okay because "we're still technically at war". The Solomani are finally going to acknowledge that this is the border, that they have no claims beyond that border, and that they and the Imperium are at peace.

Gets restive elements out of Imperium...

I was thinking about getting restive elements out of both the Imperium and the Confederation.

The Imperium-Confederation ceasefire line seems odd until you realize that it generally follows the limit of expansion for the Imperium prior to the founding of the Solomani Autnomous Region. Systems generally coreward of the ceasefire line had joined the Imperium directly and systems generally rimward of the ceasefire line had joined the Imperium at one remove through the Solomani Sphere. That makes the old ceasefire line a good point to build a subsector or more wide belt of small independent polities between the Imperium and Confederation.

I believe that the fervor on either side regarding the many issues between the Imperium and Confederation is inversely proportional to the distance from the ceasefire line. Solomani & Aslan certainly imply this on the Confederation side, members states away from the ceasefire line and rimward are less likely to be rabid Solomani Party supporters, less likely to worry about the "threat" posed by the Imperium, and less likely to froth over the "lost" territories coreward. More importantly, these rimward Confederation member states are more likely to be interested in rimward expansion.

If Strephon can beat the Solomani badly enough to force them to ask for negotiations and then remove the more rabid member states from the Confederation by setting them up as small independent polities, he can tip the internal political balance of the Confederation away from the irredentists and towards the rim expansionists.

... Chissano civil war may or may not breakout...

The Confederation's "Chissano civil war" in GT is a prime example of the internal political tensions I was talking about in WoCo.


Regards,
Bill

 

[Easterner9504]

Cthonian's

The book a GENIUS FOR WAR by Trevor Dupuy outlined the formation of the Great General Staff of Prussia and why in WW1 and WW2 there were 10 brilliant/genius German generals for every one Allied Great General. So the Cthonian's are just an advance upward of their proocess. See Solomani Confederation at TRAVwiki it describes each of the member states. The German's lost both wars from fighting too many enemies at once the opposite of situation in 3I vs SC.


You are correct I do have major gaps in my knowledge of MT & TNE books, but are not these books also the bane of Ranke's canon rants on outright constant changing of previously established canon?

Something got lost in translation. I'm sure Streph was very concerned about EW, presumably its affects were still quite unknown and may have been seen as some Galaxy killing threat as in Flinx adventures from A D Foster.

I see the Sols as a whole (not necessarily some leadership) as wanting Terra back and a clear-cut victory to satisfy them. I see Confed Military as less politicized than society as a whole. I see SOLSEC with its 3 branches working against itself on occasion the way some megacorps have done. After defeat I see Wolfe cultivating a Turtledove HOW FEW REMAIN Remembrance Day mentality with a National Day of HATE against the 3I and a determination to set things aright next time around. This unifying theme would rally left-center-right of Solomani thought on non-Sol's. The hard right appears to be Fred Phelps-Bill Ayers loons with Rev Wright-Michael Savage mouthpieces screaming and ginning up their virulence species-ism. But the right-center-left is not that far in-tune and war will put Navy in supremacy position who's early victories and grabbing lots of lost systems will allow the government to negotiate. I'm pretty sure the Ihatei on Soli's left flank was a concern even though none of us seem to believe in Aslan and Vargr hordes.

Am I right and your wrong? NO we're stating opinion, a 1000 things could happen, Victory Disease, new weapon or tactic, coups, wrong person dying and who knows what then happens.

Solomani Rim War: Here I say your wrong, I fear you'll say MT changed it. But here is original canon from Invasion: Earth.

However, Solomani fortunes were checked in 993 when a large invasion force attempted to regain the worlds in the Old Expanses Sector; it encountered near-fanatical resistance and was repulsed with heavy losses.

Doesn't sound like they owned it or were fighting rebels. I took it to mean they were trying to take the 5 subsectors they didn't start with. Has something changed or clarified this?

Also I can't quote, italic or bold anything I write. That screen section is never an option for me here at COTI.

 

[Whipsnade]

The book a GENIUS FOR WAR by Trevor Dupuy outlined the formation of the Great General Staff of Prussia...

E9504,

So, you're suggesting that the Imperium won't have a Naval General Staff? Or, given the Imperium's greater population, won't be able to find and/or train more military geniuses?

So the Cthonian's...

TravWiki is just that TraveWiki. Anyone can write anything. I don't know if the Cthonians and their alleged abilities are actual canon or if they're from someone's TU(1). Hopefully Hans Rancke will drop in and let us know.

I see the Sols as a whole (not necessarily some leadership) as wanting Terra back and a clear-cut victory to satisfy them.

MT is pretty clear that the Sollies want the entire Sphere back first and then want to establish Sollie control over all "lesser" races second. Their conduct during the OTL Rebellion certainly follow those goals. They grab Earth early on, then have the Old Expanses handed to them on a plate, and still keep hammering on the Vegan pocket and Daibei sector. There's no attempt at any time by the Sollies to negotiate with a basically defeated Imperium.

The only negotiations they do enter into are with Margeret and deal with a cessation of Solomani activities beyond the original borders of the SAR in the trailing-coreward direction. Essentially, the Solomani agree not to advance beyond the Old Expanses and Margeret agrees not the liberate the same.

I see Confed Military as less politicized than society as a whole.

The Confederation military is more politicized than society as a whole because, while Confederation society had covert monitors, the military has overt commissars.

I see SOLSEC with its 3 branches working against itself on occasion the way some megacorps have done.

You've got that slightly wrong.The Confederation government has three branches of which SolSec is one. Early in the Rebellion, SolSec led by Desmond Trinoch essentially stage a coup and reduce the influence of the two remaining branches; the Solomani Party and the military.

After defeat I see Wolfe cultivating... (big snip)

Wolfe and his successors did things similar to what you propose, but the goals they gave the Confederation are not as limited as`you believe. As I wrote above, recovering Earth and the entire Solomani Sphere is only the beginning.

But here is original canon from Invasion: Earth. However, Solomani fortunes were checked in 993 when a large invasion force attempted to regain the worlds in the Old Expanses Sector; it encountered near-fanatical resistance and was repulsed with heavy losses.

You must always place any statement in context, otherwise you'll miss the actual meaning of the statement. I could lift the following statement out of context from the millions of words written about WW2, "On June 6th, 1944 the land, naval, and air forces of Britain, Canada, and the United States invaded Normandy", and "prove" that the Allies were fighting France.

Doesn't sound like they owned it or were fighting rebels. I took it to mean they were trying to take the 5 subsectors they didn't start with. Has something changed or clarified this?

It's an issue of context, my friend. You need to keep in mind how the war began and how it was being fought when you read that sentence.

The Old Expanses were part of the Solomani Autonomous Region from the beginning because it lay within that 50 parsec radius from Earth. In 704 Margeret I set up the SAR and essentially subcontracted out the government and expansion of the Imperium along to the Solomani. The Solomani added rimward territory to the Imperium while acting as an imperial proxy of sorts. They handled the day-to-day governance of the region, collected taxes and gave the Imperium their cut. By 940 Margeret II had enough complaints about Solomani practices and dissolved the SAR.

The Solomani ignored the proclamation naturally and kept acting as if the SAR still legally existed. Both sides began a cold war that grew more heated each year. In the decades that followed, the Imperium began a slow reintegration of the SAR through primarily political and economic means backed up by the occasional show of force. When you remember that this tactic is the same one the Imperium used to put down the Ilelish Rebellion in the 5th Century, you'll understand the Imperium's thinking. During this cold war period, big chunks of the coreward portions of the former SAR, including much of the Old Expanses, were gratefully reintegrated back into the Imperium.

In 989 events came to a head. With the 3rd FW going on, the Solomani believed the Imperium's attention was elsewhere. They declared independence by announcing the creation of the Solomani Sphere, claimed all the former territories of the SAR, and moved to forcibly retake those regions the Imperium had been busily reintegrating. When it became clear that shows of force would no longer work, the Imperium responded by formally declaring war in 990.

In 993, the Solomani launched an invasion to reassert full control of the Old Expanses. All of that sector had once belonged to the SAR and the Solomani claimed it as part of the new Solomani Sphere. Many worlds of the Old Expanses remembered how they'd been governed by the Solomani during the days of the SAR, began the "near-fanatical resistance" you read about, and repulsed the Solomani "invasion" with the "heavy losses" you also read about.

You can see how the context involved changes the story that single sentence implies. Over the centuries the Old Expanses had originally joined the Imperium in bits and pieces. The sector was then reassigned entirely to the SAR. Portions badly treated by the SAR gladly accepted reintegration back into the Imperium. Those portions were then invaded by the Solomani in an attempt to reassert full control over the entire sector and a fanatical resistance occurred.

Context always counts.


Regards,
Bill

1 - Popped over to TravWiki and read the Cthonian entry. It's from Solomani & Aslan, but the "electro-psychoanalysis" nonsense mentioned is obviously a typically clumsy attempt by DGP to insert Dickson's Dorsai into Traveller canon. I'd take any claims of Cthonian training creating "super leaders" with a dTon of salt. Canon is full of "received wisdom", things which people within the setting believe to be true but are actually patently false. Considering the course of the Rebellion on the Rim, the Confederation obviously didn't benefit much from Cthonia's training methods. Earth was "liberated" but the Vegan Autonomous Region and Daibei held out until Virus arrived, Lucan's Imperium kept a "cracker line" open to Vega, the Old Expanses surrendered before any real fighting occurred, and Margeret kicked enough Sollie bottoms for the Confederation to negotiate with her. That doesn't actually suggest a triumphal procession.

 

[Easterner9504]

Every nation that fought Germany had a general Staff of some sort, none but WW1 France came close. It was the methodology of the GGS that made it so effective. German staff was organized by Scharnhorst a person known for the ships named after him rather than his own accomplishments. So sure the Impies will have a staff and a good one. The GGS recognized talent and inserted Lt's into staff say by age 25. The Cthonians by age 10. Assuming the staff was as uber-effective as the Prussians, the Impies have another problem. What Dupuy found was that mediocrities were raised to good, good was raised to highly competent & highly competent to genius. A staff weenie could be given a divisional command and excell day 1 tactically, something no other military could hope to emulate with consistency.

If they don't exist and are non-canon it doesn't matter, of course Wounded Colossus is non-canon...... speaking of Ranke no such thing as a 'generalty,' general staff is correct term he's never used.

By three branches of SOLSEC I'm referring to their internal organization.. i.e. Monitors, Overts & Sleepers. But your right military was politicized I forgot it was 3rd leg of stool: Party, Military, SOLSEC.


My map of OE In GDW Aliens show 5 subsectors not part of SAR.

 

[Whipsnade]

E9504,

Assuming that the Confederation has a general staff and the Imperium has none is nothing but special pleading. The German example led all nations with even the pretense of military prowess to adopt a staff system.

I also think that, while Cthonia and her "electro-psychoanalysis" training methods are canon, any influence they may have had on the performance of Solomani forces during the Rebellion cannot be detected.

As I wrote, the Confederation's only major success occurred when the nobility of the Old Expanses chose to surrender instead of fight. On every other front the Confederation bogged down after relatively minor successes. After taking Earth, the Confederation cannot reduce the Imperial pocket centered on the Vegan Autonomous Region only a subsector coreward or completely shut down the cracker line Lucan's overstretched Imperium maintains to the Vegan pocket.

Either the claims surrounding Cthonia's schools are overblown or the Confederation's military was so poor that even with Cthonia's "super admirals" the Solomani could only achieve the limited successes that they did in the OTL.

I've qualms about using a "general incompetence" excuse for any reason, so I'll go with the "overblown reputation" interpretation instead.


Regards,
Bill

 

[Easterner9504]

I never said Impies lack a GS. ????????

My memories of GDW Rebellion is SC described as single most powerful human state standing. A major improvement over previous description as state propped up by hivers & Imperium.


But memories are untrustworthy. sigh

 

[Whipsnade]

I never said Impies lack a GS.

E9504,

That's right. You never said the Imperium wouldn't have a general staff.

You did suggest, however, that the Cthonian training practices would produce a general staff for the Confederation so qualitatively superior to those of her opponents that the war's conduct would resemble Germany's successes in the Franco-Prussian War and the early stages of both World Wars.

I'm pointing out that the Solomani Confederation's successes during the Rebellion were relatively minor. The Vegan Autonomous Region still stands and the Lucan's Imperium maintains contact with it, Daibei has yet to be crushed, the Old Expanses were gained through surrender and not conquest, and Margeret easily stopped Solomani advances towards her faction.

The Confederation has very little to show for launching a war they're been planning for over a century. Earth has ben "liberated", but the Confederation is a long way from regaining the territories of the old Solomani Sphere. In my opinion that suggests that the Confederation's general staff is not measurably superior to that of her opponents, which in turn questions the in-game claims of Cthonian training methods. In fact, as we'll see below, I'd suggest that the Confederation general staff is somewhat inferior to their opponents.

My memories of GDW Rebellion is SC described as single most powerful human state standing. A major improvement over previous description as state propped up by hivers & Imperium.

Your memories aren't playing you false. Again, it's a matter of context.

MT's title of most powerful human state standing is a relative one. When the Imperium fractures in eight factions, the Solomani Confederation becomes the most powerful human state by default.

Despite being more powerful than the factions facing it, the Confederation somehow squanders both that advantage and the advantage of it's surprise attack. As I've written several times now, after "liberating" Earth and being handed the Old Expanses early on, the Confederation's offensives quickly bog down on all fronts. The Confederation is unable to crush the Vegan pocket, is unable to shut down the "cracker line" between the Vegans and Lucan's Imperium, is unable to knock out Daibei, and is easily repulsed by Margeret when it's forces attempt to advance beyond the Old Expanses.

For the most powerful human state standing - and one with an allegedly superior general staff - that's a pretty sad slate of accomplishments.

When examining canon it's always best to look at words and actions. What statements in the setting does not always equate what is actually true in the setting. That's what makes the OTU seem to be so real.


Regards,
Bill

 

[rancke]

TravWiki is just that TraveWiki. Anyone can write anything. I don't know if the Cthonians and their alleged abilities are actual canon or if they're from someone's TU(1). Hopefully Hans Rancke will drop in and let us know.

Anyone can write anything, but the article about the Protectorate of Cthonia is marked as canonical, indicating that this particular someone got it from a canonical source. If he didn't, someone else will hopefully correct the article.

I haven't dug out my copy of Rats&Cats to check. It would be nice if people included page numbers in the reference section, but that's not general practice (I've begun doing it myself, but I didn't start until fairly recently).

However, reading the article, it seems to me that jumping from the Cthonian innovative technique to a Solomani Confederation Super-GS is quite a leap:

"The Confederation might well intervene, if it were not for the Cthonian Navy's unique training methods. The Cthonians employ an innovative technique - "electro-psychoanalysis" to the popular media - which combines psychological testing with intense study of neural activity. Using this technique, the Cthonians can single out future leaders at a very young age and recruit them into military schools. As the Protectorate has recently opened the program to other Solomani worlds, the Confederation stands more to gain by leaving the Cthonians in peace."​

First of all, the technique is described as innovative. Doesn't that imply that it's new? And if it's new, how many Cthonian super-admirals would have emerged yet? How much influence would the rival states allow Cthonian admirals? And does the technique actually produce super-admirals? Or just a somewhat higher percentage of more-than-averagely competent officers? How much would a relative handful of superior Cthonian officers affect the performance of the entire Confederation Navy? Might we not actually be talking about half a dozen better-than-averagely led squadrons at best?


Hans

 

[Whipsnade]

Anyone can write anything, but the article about the Protectorate of Cthonia is marked as canonical, indicating that this particular someone got it from a canonical source.

Hans,

When you read my postscript, you'll see I went to the Wiki article in question and saw the S&A reference to Cthonia's alleged superior training techniques. I no longer own S&A but I'm inclined to accept the Cthonia description as coming from that sourcebook.

However, reading the article, it seems to me that jumping from the Cthonian innovative technique to a Solomani Confederation Super-GS is quite a leap (snip)

Agreed. Especially when you compare the claims surrounding Cthonia's innovative techniques to the military accomplishments of the Confederation during the Rebellion.

First of all, the technique is described as innovative. Doesn't that imply that it's new?

New as in never seen before? Perhaps not. The Anserin(?) use something that seems similar to control fear and other emotions.

New as in how it's applied? Maybe.

And if it's new, how many Cthonian super-admirals would have emerged yet?

Given the canonical achievements of the Confederation in the Rebellion? I'd say "none" would be a safe answer.

How much influence would the rival states allow Cthonian admirals?

Given the rivalries inherent in the Confederation between member states and the requirements by SolSec for ideological purity? I'd say "little influence" would be a safe answer.

And does the technique actually produce super-admirals? Or just a somewhat higher percentage of more-than-averagely competent officers? How much would a relative handful of superior Cthonian officers affect the performance of the entire Confederation Navy? Might we not actually be talking about half a dozen better-than-averagely led squadrons at best?

Again, given what we know about the Confederation's achievements during the Rebellion, what we know about the Confederation's internal politics, and what we know about SolSec, I'd say the safe answers to your questions in order are; No, Maybe, Not At All, and Possibly.


Regards,
Bill

 

[Easterner9504]

Probably 30 years. So it would depend greatly when introduced. If very recent then they wouldn't even have their 1st graduates yet. Somehow I don't see a load of Doogie Howser's coming aboard as Grand Galactic Admirals.


I don't have to examine canon, why do you think I have you and Rancke on retainer to correct anything ignorant I say.

 

[Whipsnade]

Probably 30 years. So it would depend greatly when introduced. If very recent then they wouldn't even have their 1st graduates yet. Somehow I don't see a load of Doogie Howser's coming aboard as Grand Galactic Admirals.

E9504,

There has to be some discernible results, either real or imagined, beyond that of grammar school kids beating military sims because other Solomani worlds are joining the program and the Confederation is impressed enough to leave Cthonia alone.

That points to a system that has, IMHO, been around for some time and talked a good game. The crucible of the Rebellion proved the Cthonian's claims to be somewhat overstated however.

... why do you think I have you and Rancke on retainer to correct anything ignorant I say.

Stuff and nonsense. Nothing - as in nothing - you've said in this thread has been ignorant.

Give yourself some credit, my friend.


Regards,
Bill

 

[Easterner9504]

Ignorance is Bliss

That's because after 10-12 kicks to groin from Rancke I've learned to check some stuff out before posting and shutting up when clueless i.e. Lords of Thunder.

Mouth shut ears open (or electronic equivalent there of) and you learn.

 

[tjoneslo]

However, reading the article, it seems to me that jumping from the Cthonian innovative technique to a Solomani Confederation Super-GS is quite a leap:

"The Confederation might well intervene, if it were not for the Cthonian Navy's unique training methods. The Cthonians employ an innovative technique - "electro-psychoanalysis" to the popular media - which combines psychological testing with intense study of neural activity. Using this technique, the Cthonians can single out future leaders at a very young age and recruit them into military schools. As the Protectorate has recently opened the program to other Solomani worlds, the Confederation stands more to gain by leaving the Cthonians in peace."​

First of all, the technique is described as innovative. Doesn't that imply that it's new? And if it's new, how many Cthonian super-admirals would have emerged yet? How much influence would the rival states allow Cthonian admirals? And does the technique actually produce super-admirals? Or just a somewhat higher percentage of more-than-averagely competent officers? How much would a relative handful of superior Cthonian officers affect the performance of the entire Confederation Navy? Might we not actually be talking about half a dozen better-than-averagely led squadrons at best?

There are a number of things that may explain the failures of the Solomani Confederation military adventures even assuming the Cthorian training and assuming the Confederation navy has a fair number of these early trained, talented military commanders.

There is, for those that study real wars, more than simple military genius required to win one. In general, there is a requirement of logistics and political will to wage a successful war. If the logistical management of the confederation navy isn't any better than the Imperial navy. This might explain some of the Confederation limitations.

There is in canon, and as discussed above, a undercurrent of rebellion within the Solomani Confederation. Some of the worlds don't want to be there for whatever reason. You may not accept the GURPS Traveller universe as part of the canon, but if you read the TNS entries some of the worlds in the confederation are on the verge of open rebellion. Depending upon how active these rebellions become in the wake of the collapse of the Imperium, it may tie up significant resources preventing the collapse Confederation as well.

Finally, if I'm reading the canon and assumptions above correctly, the leaders of SOLSEC are now the de-facto leaders of the confederation. This presents several scenarios. Either the SOLSEC fear the well-trained military leaders (superior training breeds superior ambition) and have either removed them or scattered them about to blunt their influence. Or the SOLSEC are using them to hold together the fracturing Confederation, either because it really is or because the SOLSEC people think it is.

It's my understanding the SOLSEC is the internal security of the Confederation. It would not be surprising that the SOLSEC agenda for making the Confederation internally secure would then be given the lion share of the Confederation resources. The military adventures are probably hampered by the SOLSEC requirements of maintaining the confederation internal security.

I can easily see that the Cthonian training techniques can produce both an entire group of military super-geniuses and still be completely ineffective.

 

[aramis]

It was fairly explicit in AM:S & in RatzNCatz that the reigns of government really were the party heads, working mostly through solsec, and solsec can basically delete any anti-solsec individuals before they get to a position strong enough to threaten it.

 

[Murph]

Brilliant!

E9504,

Thank you. I tried very hard to use historical analogies.



Dulinor had trouble keeping his Federation together even when he was fighting an evidently genocidal, lunatic, murderer like Lucan. I believed that when faced with the actual, legal, 100% real Emperor everyone is rallying around, and the Emperor he had claimed to have killed already, Dulinor would have even more trouble keeping his polity together.

Also, MT mentions many Ilelish nobles at the Imperial Moot on Sylea who weren't part of Dulinor's plot. In the OTL Lucan's idiocy and paranoia prevents him from using them, but in the ATL Strephon isn't as idiotic or paranoid.



I gave the Alien Incursions short shrift because they're wholly implausible. Given MT's own assumptions, neither the Vargr or Aslan would be able to do what MT says they do. Because of this, I spent less time explaining how Strephon would combat them.



Strephon believed that the signals picked up by Longbow II were so important that he departed Sylea leaving behind a clone to meet one of his few Archdukes and traveled incognito to the project see them for himself. Whether or not you or I feel the Empress Wave is important, Strephon felt it was immensely important and Strephon is the man who counts.



Again, thank you. Sadly canon wants us to believe that the Imperium of Strephon is nearly identical to that of Arbellatra.



Strephon's goal is a negotiated settlement. He just wants the Solomani to ask for those negotiations.

The idea in the short term is to force the Solomani to admit they've lost. Not to destroy the Confederation, but to make them realize they've lost. The idea in the long term is to break or dilute the revanchist feelings within the Confederation. I'll explain that further below.



If MT's Solomani & Aslan were more readily available and you had the chance to read it, you would see that the Confederation includes any number of captive and/or restive states. The Confederation has a number of uber-patriotic member states who gleefully volunteer for the punitive campaigns regularly launched to keep restive members in line. Among the volunteers is an apartheid-based polity which brings home slaves from their campaigns.



In planning to fight the last war, the Solomani are going to lose the current one.



You're forgetting that during the last Rim War, the Solomani began with possession of the Old Expanses and the Imperium merely advanced through it. When the war began the Solomani controlled nearly all of the Solomani Sphere. Individual worlds here and there had sucessfully petitioned the Imperium for removal from the Sphere's political framework but those systems didn't change their physical location. The Solomani's troubles in the Old Expanses during the First Rim War wasn't one of conquering the reigion, the trouble was one of dealing with rebellion and resistence behind their lines.

You're also laboring under the misconception that a majority of the worlds within the borders of the old Sphere or in the Rim Sector want to see a return of the Confederation. Canon suggest there are some that do, but canon never implies that they are even a simple majority.



I find the trope of "super generals/admirals" to be just that, a trope. I'm also not familiar with these claims about the Cthonians so I can't judge them.



No. The Solomani want the entire Sphere back. They aren't going to allow the Vegans to stay with the Imperium, they want to punish the Vegans for their treason during the First Rim War.

As for plebiscites, it was the Solomani's continued refusal to allow or acknowledge the results of plebiscites that led to the First Rim War. Worlds within the Sphere wanted to remove themselves from the Sphere's political framework and, when the Imperium allowed that to happen, the Solomani began preparing for war.



That's the long term idea I wrote of above. There's going to be no ceasefire cum de facto peace treaty this time around, no loopholes for irredentists on either side to rationalize their acts as being okay because "we're still technically at war". The Solomani are finally going to acknowledge that this is the border, that they have no claims beyond that border, and that they and the Imperium are at peace.



I was thinking about getting restive elements out of both the Imperium and the Confederation.

The Imperium-Confederation ceasefire line seems odd until you realize that it generally follows the limit of expansion for the Imperium prior to the founding of the Solomani Autnomous Region. Systems generally coreward of the ceasefire line had joined the Imperium directly and systems generally rimward of the ceasefire line had joined the Imperium at one remove through the Solomani Sphere. That makes the old ceasefire line a good point to build a subsector or more wide belt of small independent polities between the Imperium and Confederation.

I believe that the fervor on either side regarding the many issues between the Imperium and Confederation is inversely proportional to the distance from the ceasefire line. Solomani & Aslan certainly imply this on the Confederation side, members states away from the ceasefire line and rimward are less likely to be rabid Solomani Party supporters, less likely to worry about the "threat" posed by the Imperium, and less likely to froth over the "lost" territories coreward. More importantly, these rimward Confederation member states are more likely to be interested in rimward expansion.

If Strephon can beat the Solomani badly enough to force them to ask for negotiations and then remove the more rabid member states from the Confederation by setting them up as small independent polities, he can tip the internal political balance of the Confederation away from the irredentists and towards the rim expansionists.



The Confederation's "Chissano civil war" in GT is a prime example of the internal political tensions I was talking about in WoCo.


Regards,
Bill

 

[Uxi]

Interesting thread. Digging it up since I'm doing prep on Cthonia as to it's relations with the Turin Consolidation, which has been my main project the last few years.

I don't agree with the implication that the Solomani Confederation member states were "captive" or "restive" even. It's politics are reminiscent of the Reformation Coalition with it's Centrists vs Federalists, though it's obviously got some darker elements and yeah SolSec is trying to pull strings in the background, but the members are aware of this too and SolSec usually knows to not go too far over the line. Most of the racists and SolSec types were Centrists, but not all. In general, though, Imperial propaganda paints everyone with the same brush when it's clear that the Confederation is actually more diverse and less unified than that (though Trinoch and others would have no doubt preferred it otherwise).

That said, IMTU I ignored the more egregious stereotypes, especially the Hispanic banana republic and the Nth Reformed French, though I did a have a "Hispanic" member (specifically Spanish from Spain though with important sub-members from France, Brazil and Latin America) make it a bit more serious as a more generically European member-state .

Note that the important part in Rats & Cats (which I'll never part with as it's invaluable for background in the area nearest the Reformation Coalition) about the Cthonian methods are that they are only beginning to integrate them with the rest of the Confederation. Their member-fleet is mostly defensive and more analogous to an Imperial Reserve fleet than an Imperial Navy fleet (though with less of a technological and capability disparity), but it's use isn't intended to be as offensive for the Confederation.

IMTU, they did have elements (usually Squadron level) assisting in the invasion but not the main fleet and it's improvements were important in both larger strategy as well as tactically though they weren't integrated enough in the Confederation fleets to make a substantial difference.

The liberation of Terra and recapture of Old Expanses are no trivial feats, considering the amount of territory the post-Rim War/pre-Rebellion Confederation has in comparison with the Domain of Sol, much less the rest of the Imperium. Of course, Lucan's denuding of the frontier with the main fleets to fight Dulinor helped, but I think many in the Solomani Confederation Fleets would have been facing many of the issues of the Terran Confederation facing defeated 1st Imperium Vilani: how far do they overextend and the stabilized frontiers were the peripheries of the pockets of resistance of the other Imperial factional safes (Daibei and Margaret in this case).

TNE-RCES did some good stuff on the initial invasion and it's worth linking as plausible:

http://www.downport.com/bard/bard/hana/hana7506.html

 

[Thanos]

I'm new here. What the duce is "Wounded Colossus"?

 

[Easterner9504]

http://www.freelancetraveller.com/features/othroads/woco.html

It is Whipsnades' alternate timeline where Strephon gets off the pot and does something at the start of the Rebellion.