What Tier 4 countries could rise to Tier 3?

[rfmcdpei]

By 2320, the two dozen or so stutterwarp powers don't seem to face much competition. Some of the smaller powers, the ones that didn't stablish fully-fledged colonies on Tirane, did break through the tantalum monopolies and the immense costs of interstellar colonization. The Ukrainians managed to settle Aurore with ESA help in the 2240s and the Cantonese Syuhlahm, and the Canadians, Texans, Arabians, and Scandinavians and finally Nigerians all managed to break away from Earth thanks to good luck and helpful patrons. I have no idea how the Incan Republic managed the leap, although it must be doing something right. Wellonese and Freihafener independence added two more substantial powers to the mix, and possibly Nibelungen and Heidelsheimat and/or Adlerhorst as well (do they count?), but as breakaway components of established states I don't think they really count.

Who else might try to break through before it's too late and join the club before near-Sol interstellar space is entirely taken over? We know that the Venezuelans are scouring Sol system, the Iranians seem interested, the United Arab Republic still has interstellar aspirations, and Spain, Italy and Greece are speculating as to the possibilities of Kimanjano. Poland strikes me as another possibility, with its relatively large and developed colony and "few off-world holdings"; the dynamics of having a long-time French ally on Germany's other side could be interesting.

Thoughts?

It would have to be Poland.

 

[Peter Schutze]

There is actually plenty of "land" left over that could be used.

I can't see the laws of economics being repealed so the benefits of scale should apply. Getting some small partners increases traffic for your orbital infrastructure and builds potential local markets.

Who uses this leverage is a political matter .... Australia could easily bootstrap its neighbours into "colonies" of their own since their worlds are comparitavely empty. New Zealand's lack of interest in space is probably whats holding it back from the American arm. I've always assumed that there are small enclaves (a town as opposed to a metropolis in scale) of pacific nations on Botany Bay for example operating under "officially Australian" governance.

The Incans are the standard by which I'd be judging the other nations. Given that the partner (Inca/Texas) is going to provide 80% of the initial capital and support work eg terminal, emergency supplies its really a question of who has an interest in setting up a full fledged colony ?

I'm also surprised that there hasnt been any mass refugee migrations with groups seeing space as the final solution to their persectued status (which I doubt the twilight war resolved) eg Assyrians of Iraq which tier 1 and 2 powers would sponsor for the same economic reasons if nothing else.

 

[Peter Schutze]

>It would have to be Poland

Poland was mentioned in the first edition rules as having offworld territory

 

[Anders]

Maybe there are sizeable Polish enclaves on Beta Canum? I think most offworld holdings will be enclaves within an established colony by a friendly nation, subject to some local law and administration.

The exception might be some worlds that were strategically important (this was why France kept almost everyone in ESA away from Kimanjano - it was strategic and profitable, so if Greece wanted a piece of the petrochem cake they would have to build entirely on their own like the Azanians).

One nation that might be looking offworld is Turkey. Maybe they go corporate instead, and set up a colony with the help of Trilon on Kie-Yuma.

 

[Waldemar]

From what I read in 2320 AD it would be Iran that has the capacity to lift itself to Tier 3. It seems as many are surprised that the Iranians have not yet established a colony, while it is indicated that they are preparing for some effort in space. I wonder where they could be heading in such case?

 

[Colin]

Iran and Indonesia are best poised, having the wealth and population to make a go of it. Where they would go is another question. Though Iran is a pluralistic democracy, they are also isolationist. There aren't too many worlds where they can pretty much get away from anyone.
Indonesia has another racket going, involving considerable improvement in nanotube manufacturing for their Beanstalk. They are one of the prime investments in the tether testing on Venus, and plan to incorporate that testing with thier fleet of merchant ships to drastically reduce the cost of shipping, largely on the interface side.

 

[Waldemar]

Indonesia has another racket going, involving considerable improvement in nanotube manufacturing for their Beanstalk. They are one of the prime investments in the tether testing on Venus, and plan to incorporate that testing with thier fleet of merchant ships to drastically reduce the cost of shipping, largely on the interface side.

From what I gathered in the 2320 AD background (page 60), Indonesia is already ranked a Tier 3 nation because of the Xenon Corporation's colony on the moon Titan. As of the Titan colony, I got the impression that it was a very profitable permanent outpost but not a full fledge colony (despite 30,000 persons working there).

Things have certainly turned up for Indonesia in 2320 AD with a complete beanstalk, the facility on Titan and a new democratic government.

 

[BMonnery]

>It would have to be Poland

Poland was mentioned in the first edition rules as having offworld territory

Few offworld assets, a reference to it's underdeveloped space programme. It's an entirely negative sentence. Poland is not a breakthough nation.

Nor, probably are any of the smaller nations. Even some of the "Tier 3's" are only starfaring by someone else's good graces. The Incans, Texans, Cantonese, Central Asians, Canadians, UAR, Ukranians (probably others) and to some extent the Russians get their ships from other nations. These transfers weren't simple market transfers (with only a few thousand ships in existence, and a very limited capacity to replace them how could they be?*), they were strategic decisions.

The only nations with the capacity to produce starships in 2300AD are America, Argentina, Brazil, Azania, Britain, France, Germany, Manchuria and Japan. Russia is coming up and is just starting to build ships (but still buys the major engineering in from France).

Canada designs at home, but has other nations (Britain probably) build them, Nigeria does likewise from France.


* Not entirely true, the Australians sell of their Tantalum for money, and are the only nation to do so, hence their near stillborn space programme, since the money is going into terraforming Terrestial Australia. Then again, Australia occupies a strange Schroedinger state in 2300, due to one article massively conflicting with everything else.

 

[jcrocker]

Nor, probably are any of the smaller nations. Even some of the "Tier 3's" are only starfaring by someone else's good graces. The Incans, Texans, Cantonese, Central Asians, Canadians, UAR, Ukranians (probably others) and to some extent the Russians get their ships from other nations.

Sorry, you'll have to provide canon sources for that. Ships of the French Arm doesn't give the orbital data for the Canadian shipyard that build the Hudsons, for example, but it doesn't give the 'flavour' of such a restrictive view.

The only nations with the capacity to produce starships in 2300AD are America, Argentina, Brazil, Azania, Britain, France, Germany, Manchuria and Japan. Russia is coming up and is just starting to build ships (but still buys the major engineering in from France).

Canada designs at home, but has other nations (Britain probably) build them, Nigeria does likewise from France.

Nope. Page 50, Ships of the French Arm, the Maiduguri-class Freighter is listed as "the first interstellar ship designed and built by Nigerian Industries".

In 2320, on page 57, Civilian and Military Shipyards are among the assets listed as standard for all Tier 3 nations. There are a couple of exceptions listed in the text articles for the nations, but on a quick scan Arabia is it specifically stated "Arabia lacks any sort of shipbuilding capability, and has no military starships." The UAR lacks shipbuilding, but apparently has military starships.

Which is more likely - every single one of the nations you list above suddenly surged ahead and developed a shipbuilding industry in the same 20-year period, or that you've gotten something wrong?

 

[kmsoice]

Or that you are both right. Come on guys, you are trying to extrapolate whole worlds out of the tenses of single sentences written by disparate authors. Does not the idea of a dangerous oversimplification mean anything? Let us take Canada for an example and try this ->

"Canadian industries make almost all of the D-link monopole Grav scanners used throughout human space but it cannot produce quantum flux capacitors with an rpm of over 4500 like what is used in the latest version of the American Kennedy. At the New Lunnenburg shipyards there are full facilities for ship construction but for final stutterwarp drive tuning and calibration a ship is towed to the British facilities. At CFB Bettina Canada does have a super-heterodyning reflex furnace for aneiling complex laminates to make the advanced composite armor of modern warships but it cannot produce beams and plates greater than 10m in length which in practice limits the size of ships to less than 6000tons.

For weapons it is Canada that supplies much of the guidance system and all of the plutonium in the warhead for the British Longbow missile. In return Canada gets access to the latest versions at a cut rate price, except during the Kafer War when the British activated emergency clauses in the contracts and kept all of the production for themselves. During that time Canada bought some Fantan missile systems from Manchuria which are very close (in the words of one British Admiral "...too bloody close...") in specification to the Longbow.

Canada has a small supply of Tantalum coming from remilling the low grade tailings off of the old Bernic Lake Mine, which to the heartbreak of Canada used to supply much of the world's Tantalum in the 20th and 21st centuries but was mined out decades before it's role in the Jerome drive was understood.

In summation Canada is a nation with access to cutting edge starship technology but as it found way back in the 1950's with the Avro Arrow project, going it alone is prohibitively expensive."

---Similar tales could be woven for any Tier 3 nation. Tier 3 nations can build starships, military starships even, but they are limited in capacity and options and often have to rely on outside technical help&equipment, usually from a friendly Tier 2 nation, for many of the little but necessary parts because they do not have a full range of native services on hand. They could go it alone if need be but that would limit their capacity and options even more.

Honestly, international business and construction being what it is I would make things even more muddled with patents here, researchers trained there but work over there, patents filed in one place, stock ownership split and sold etc. But I lack the time to write it up. The point is, is this not that a better story than 'all or nothing'?

--and so why should we care? Adventure opportunities that is why! A Tier 3 shipyard is always going to be needing something from somewhere else. Those somethings may not be easily obtainable at the moment due to various difficulties thus requiring the talents of those well versed in overcoming (read: Shoot, Shoot, Shoot!!) those difficulties. For some cruel laughs it could mean obtaining these items from another, just as harried, Tier 3 shipyard.

 

[BMonnery]

In fact, I reread the ECS, SotFA etc. to check.

Canada launched their first starship in 2290, however, as of 2300 they don't show up on the list of orbital shipyards (America*, Argentina, Brazil, Japan, Manchuria, France, Germany and Britain** have shipyards), so I guess the ship was a small, interface capable ship. I guess the Hudson design of ca 2249 must have been built elsewhere (Britain probably), especially as the Canadians only built an interface system in 2249.

Several groups seem to be involved in design, but not construction of ships, the University of BC in Canada, Nigerian Industries, British Cargo, Robert Lawson and Sons and MidTech of America among them. This is perhaps not unusual, since the infrastructure costs involved must be pretty high. I'd imagine the situation is much akin to aircraft today, where manufacture and design are slightly divorced.

Access to offworld is fairly controlled in 2k3, nations like Texas and Canada have formed alliances that allow them a small piece of the pie, but it mainly depends upon someone else's good graces. Remember, 2k3 isn't Traveller....

* America's shipyards are all known. They have one in LEO, one at L-4 and the Trilon yard orbiting Mars.

** Four yards are mentioned for Britain, Leyland-Whitworth (LEO), Wellington (LEO), Clarke (LEO) and Diana (L-5)

 

[jcrocker]

I wonder if we're reading the same books then - my version of SotFA has the first Hudson Cargo Carrier completed in 2252. If they didn't have interface then, so what? They book time on the Space Elevator, and fill in their own interface later when the had the spare cash/pressing need.

I think we're coming at this with different approaches - you seem to prefer to omit anything that is not specifically stated, I'm filling in the blanks. After all, I don't recall any article in Challenge called "The Final Definitive List of All Shipyards In Human Space [And If It's Not Here It Does Not Exist]" - my approach was, GDW did the broad strokes and could not possibly include Every Single Thing Of Note In Human Space, and left it up to the reader to fill in what blanks they could. I'm probably closer to kmsoice's approach on the 'completeness spectrum'.

 

[BMonnery]

I wonder if we're reading the same books then - my version of SotFA has the first Hudson Cargo Carrier completed in 2252. If they didn't have interface then, so what? They book time on the Space Elevator, and fill in their own interface later when the had the spare cash/pressing need.

I think we're coming at this with different approaches - you seem to prefer to omit anything that is not specifically stated, I'm filling in the blanks. After all, I don't recall any article in Challenge called "The Final Definitive List of All Shipyards In Human Space [And If It's Not Here It Does Not Exist]" - my approach was, GDW did the broad strokes and could not possibly include Every Single Thing Of Note In Human Space, and left it up to the reader to fill in what blanks they could. I'm probably closer to kmsoice's approach on the 'completeness spectrum'.

What space elevator? The one that completes 40 odd years later?

Building ships in orbit requires a fair bit of infrastructure, which frankly Canada didn't have then. Nothing to stop them contracting out though....

 

[jcrocker]

Building ships in orbit requires a fair bit of infrastructure, which frankly Canada didn't have then.

Ships of the French Arm would seem to indicate otherwise. At least, that's how I'm going to connect the few dots they give in cannon.

 

[BMonnery]

Ships of the French Arm would seem to indicate otherwise. At least, that's how I'm going to connect the few dots they give in cannon.

No, SotFA says that Canada ordered the construction of a fleet for their own use. ECS says they didn't build a ship until 2290. Joining the dots says they contracted out...

PS: The Slaver war was fought entirely with Manchurian ships

 

[jcrocker]

No, SotFA says that Canada ordered the construction of a fleet for their own use. ECS says they didn't build a ship until 2290. Joining the dots says they contracted out...

PS: The Slaver war was fought entirely with Manchurian ships

You, sir, may join your dots howsoever you wish. When one source directly contradicts another, I believe we have a fair bit of wiggle room.

I shall join them in such a way that I find more plausible. "Obviously" there is a "typo" in the ECS whereby it should read "Canada did not build a home-designed warship until 2290" - prior to that they would have used smaller craft like Exeter SDBs and the like.

By the way - which prospect alarms you more, that I won't use your timeline in my game, or that you won't get the last word on the matter?

 

[BMonnery]

You, sir, may join your dots howsoever you wish. When one source directly contradicts another, I believe we have a fair bit of wiggle room.

I shall join them in such a way that I find more plausible. "Obviously" there is a "typo" in the ECS whereby it should read "Canada did not build a home-designed warship until 2290" - prior to that they would have used smaller craft like Exeter SDBs and the like.

By the way - which prospect alarms you more, that I won't use your timeline in my game, or that you won't get the last word on the matter?

"A latecomer to the interstellar space race, Canada didn't even launch its first stutterwarp-capable ship until 2290."

That's a pretty cut and dry sentence, Canada has recently started building ships. Canada's entry into space didn't occur until the 2250's, with the opening of the Vancouver launch centre, and the purchase of a couple of transports.

I don't think there's any contradiction between the EC and SotFA. There is some contradiction between the CA and SotFA, the latter stating the Doris colonisation was done with 2 Yorks purchased from Britain, which still act as the colonial supply vessels (a much better bet than the Hudson)*.

* BTW: The population of Doris is given as ca 300 families in CA, which appears low until when, on close inspection, you find that people aren't settling on Doris, but rather appear to be pulling "tours of duty" out in the colony before returning home. I'd not really paid attention to it before, but Doris is a large outpost rather than a true colony in that writeup.

 

[jcrocker]

That's a pretty cut and dry sentence, Canada has recently started building ships. Canada's entry into space didn't occur until the 2250's, with the opening of the Vancouver launch centre, and the purchase of a couple of transports.

...and, according to SotFA, construction of Hudsons around then.

We can go back and forth, each quoting doctrine at each other like medieval bishops quoting scripture, and pointing out things the other has missed, and invalidating pet theories of the other, or we can recognize that we aren't going to convince the other, agree to disagree, and let the matter drop.

 

[BMonnery]

...and, according to SotFA, construction of Hudsons around then.

We can go back and forth, each quoting doctrine at each other like medieval bishops quoting scripture, and pointing out things the other has missed, and invalidating pet theories of the other, or we can recognize that we aren't going to convince the other, agree to disagree, and let the matter drop.

No, because SotFA simply says the Canadian government recognised that they needed a merchant fleet and had 2 starships built, Westerner and Hudson (I assume some more Hudsons were built later for either others or Canada). It never says they built them domestically.

Similarly, Canada doesn't build many airliners today, yet has a merchant airfleet....

 

[jcrocker]

No, because SotFA simply says the Canadian government recognised that they needed a merchant fleet and had 2 starships built, Westerner and Hudson (I assume some more Hudsons were built later for either others or Canada). It never says they built them domestically.

Similarly, Canada doesn't build many airliners today, yet has a merchant airfleet....

Are you unable to let this go, or simply unwilling to not have the last word on the matter?

"It never says they built them domestically" also applies to almost every other ship in the manual, by the way.

You're right - Canada doesn't build many airliners today, but I have a friend who works at the Boeing plant in Winnipeg, and there is also Bombardier.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombardier_Aerospace

Which might be a perfect analogy, by the way - other nations build big, flashy "tall ship" liners while the Canadian Hudsons, built at Canadian yards since 2253 [or whatever the date was] give a good value for cost per cubic meter carried, one of the best in SotFA. They support a small colony [or maybe the Yorks still help, sources differ] that had its population drastically revised upward as of the 2320 census. Silly computers must have slipped a decimal point.