What happened after?

[Sgt Biggles]

In various threads there has been lots of talk about how the Twilight War came about. Everything from terrorists, to worldwide viruses, to secret organizations have been hashed and rehashed. So what happens next?

In about 300 years we know that human kind will achieve great things and head into the stars (2330A.D.). But what happened in the first 5 years after the war ended? We know France closes her borders and makes the quickest recovery, being the first nation to reenter the space race. We suspect, through some of the T2K V1 modules, that the America sets her sights on re-establishing a computer network. But even that is speculation. Most countries are in anarchy, populations are down over 50% of pre-war numbers. There is virtually no industry, no transportation or lines of communication. Pre-war boarders are disputed. What are the primary goals the various countries set to recover? Do they attempt to fix power grids? Is medical care a priority? What steps bring back currency and trade? What pre war hatred? Does the Middle East still despise America? Are England and the U.S. still on good terms? What about the U.S. and Canada? Do North and South Korea re-unite? China and Russia, the protagonists of the Twilight, what becomes of them?

Anyway, just thoughts and wonders.

 

[Badbru]

For looking at the recovery period I think your first stop is to find out who DID NOT get their buts kicked in ww3/twilight war. I played and run both version 1 and 2 and have Merc2k and with the exception of Merc2k and a brief mention in ver2 Australia remained virtually untouched atleast from an "on our soil" point of view. Australia IIRC is a close ally of USA in the 2300 time period also (as obviously we are now).
How hard was Africa hit by ww3/Twilight war? Ok the northern half of the continent might mostly be considered third world but South Africa is/will be a strong regional hi tech power equally quite isolated from the ground fighting atleast.
South America, again alot of it might be considered third world but then they're not falling from such a height.
From what I remember of the T2k history the tech plummets after the nukes go off because emp takes out computer networks, convetional warfare takes out fuel refineries and with these two gone "modern" industry grinds slowly (or rapidly)to a halt. So consider which parts of the world may not have been effected, or effected as badly, by emp. Southern hemisphere perhaps?
Now consider which area's of these have substantial manufacturing base and a petrochemicals industry. Now consider who these places may or may not be allied with.
Now if you want to rewrite the history so that the war involves ALL regions of the world in an EQUALLY devistating manner then ok do it. But if you don't then don't overlook those regions of the world that had a low participation rate when you come to the recovery, as these, IMHO will at the very least provide key recovery aid to what some might call "the major players"

 

[PBI]

I think it's a major mistake to merge the T2K and 2300, at least if all that's being done is to wonder how the world got from T2K to 2300. In 1.0, the Howling Wilderness module makes it pretty clear that the recovery is about to be shattered. That module deals specifically with the US, but the implicaitons are clear that the budding recoveries around the globe will come to a crashing halt, or at least be greatly reduced, by the coming climate changes. In the notes, the designers even said that they were deliberately "officially" wrecking things because they'd found that players were doing too good a job at getting civilization back on it's feet.

I think the question is not 'When will the recovery occur?', but 'If?'.

 

[PBI]

Originally posted by Badbru:
Australia IIRC is a close ally of USA in the 2300 time period also (as obviously we are now).
How hard was Africa hit by ww3/Twilight war? Ok the northern half of the continent might mostly be considered third world but South Africa is/will be a strong regional hi tech power equally quite isolated from the ground fighting atleast.
South America, again alot of it might be considered third world but then they're not falling from such a height.
From what I remember of the T2k history the tech plummets after the nukes go off because emp takes out computer networks, convetional warfare takes out fuel refineries and with these two gone "modern" industry grinds slowly (or rapidly)to a halt. So consider which parts of the world may not have been effected, or effected as badly, by emp. Southern hemisphere perhaps?
Now consider which area's of these have substantial manufacturing base and a petrochemicals industry. Now consider who these places may or may not be allied with.
Now if you want to rewrite the history so that the war involves ALL regions of the world in an EQUALLY devistating manner then ok do it. But if you don't then don't overlook those regions of the world that had a low participation rate when you come to the recovery, as these, IMHO will at the very least provide key recovery aid to what some might call "the major players"

The rest of the world is not exactly rosy. Most oil refineries were destroyed by nukes, with a few by conventional warfare. The EMP was worse than expected and fired the global communication network. So, even if not directly attacked, like Australia and Indonesia, the rest of the world suffered from the collapse of the econmy and food distibution networks and a rapid breakdown in law and order. Most countries or regions that weren't directly involved were in no shape to start their own recovery, much less aid anyone else. Even Australia, which weathered the intital bad times, shot itself in the foot when it got into a short, but intense, war with Indonesia, the main result being that both countries went turtle and tried to make it as best they could.

Any potential recovery, assuming the coming climate changes and designer-planned failure of some major restoration projects didn't kill it, would most likely have been from Europe, specifically France. Although I'm very doubtful if there'd be sufficient recovery to permit space travel by 2300.

 

[TKalbfus]

PBI said,

Any potential recovery, assuming the coming climate changes and designer-planned failure of some major restoration projects didn't kill it, would most likely have been from Europe, specifically France. Although I'm very doubtful if there'd be sufficient recovery to permit space travel by 2300.

So do you see the world instead descending into complete primitive savagery? For instance ignorant primitives worshiping technological artifacts as some sort of magic? Do you see bizarre cults getting started as a result of World War III based on the premise that "technology is bad as it ruined the world" sort of argument. A luddites going to prowl the world destroying cars, computers or any other items they find because they consider them evil? How many people would associate The Twilight War as Armageddon or as "Gods Wrath" on arrogant humans who've used too much technology. Perhaps they go on burning books and destroying knowledge where ever they find it. Do you think this is a credible scenario?

 

[mike wightman]

Originally posted by PBI:
I think it's a major mistake to merge the T2K and 2300, at least if all that's being done is to wonder how the world got from T2K to 2300. In 1.0, the Howling Wilderness module makes it pretty clear that the recovery is about to be shattered. That module deals specifically with the US, but the implicaitons are clear that the budding recoveries around the globe will come to a crashing halt, or at least be greatly reduced, by the coming climate changes. In the notes, the designers even said that they were deliberately "officially" wrecking things because they'd found that players were doing too good a job at getting civilization back on it's feet.

I think the question is not 'When will the recovery occur?', but 'If?'.

That the recovery happens and mankind reaches the stars is already part of Traveller 2300 canon. The Twilight war is part of 2300's history.

 

[belter]

Re: Perhaps they go on burning books and destroying knowledge where ever they find it. Do you think this is a credible scenario?

I think it is. Maybe survivors think all this technology stuff is what created the world's problems in the first place. Gamma World has a cult that believes this. The term "recovery" need not be defined as going back to the way things were. Several competing visions of recovery would probably create years of low intensity conflict between groups who fear each other's views.

 

[belter]

One more thought -

Imagine Charlton Heston on the beach in front of the half buried Statue of Liberty screaming, "You maniacs, you finally really did it. Damn you, damn you all to hell!!!" His character was cynical to begin with and after his realization I doubt he would recommend going back to the way things were.

I think he would insist that the benefits of technology will always be outweighed by the destructive power it brings.

 

[tucker2]

Originally posted by Tom Kalbfus:
PBI said, </font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr /> Any potential recovery, assuming the coming climate changes and designer-planned failure of some major restoration projects didn't kill it, would most likely have been from Europe, specifically France. Although I'm very doubtful if there'd be sufficient recovery to permit space travel by 2300.

So do you see the world instead descending into complete primitive savagery? For instance ignorant primitives worshiping technological artifacts as some sort of magic? Do you see bizarre cults getting started as a result of World War III based on the premise that "technology is bad as it ruined the world" sort of argument. A luddites going to prowl the world destroying cars, computers or any other items they find because they consider them evil? How many people would associate The Twilight War as Armageddon or as "Gods Wrath" on arrogant humans who've used too much technology. Perhaps they go on burning books and destroying knowledge where ever they find it. Do you think this is a credible scenario? </font>[/QUOTE]Yup. At least as credible as the canon material. I think also a mutated form of cockroach that is sentient and eats people, that'd be even better.

Ooooh, or maybe some computer system gets 'wise' and the world is ruled by Machines, bent on destroying Mankind. Has that been done yet?

 

[PBI]

Originally posted by Tom Kalbfus:

So do you see the world instead descending into complete primitive savagery? For instance ignorant primitives worshiping technological artifacts as some sort of magic? Do you see bizarre cults getting started as a result of World War III based on the premise that "technology is bad as it ruined the world" sort of argument. A luddites going to prowl the world destroying cars, computers or any other items they find because they consider them evil? How many people would associate The Twilight War as Armageddon or as "Gods Wrath" on arrogant humans who've used too much technology. Perhaps they go on burning books and destroying knowledge where ever they find it. Do you think this is a credible scenario? [/QB][/QUOTE]

No, actually, I don't see things developing along those lines. I personally thought the designers' intent to wreck the budding recovery plans was a bit harsh, but I suppose it would make for a good way to have the campaign continue.

I think the recovery would happen, but would take several hundred years, perhaps, with the global population falling to somewhere in the 20-30% of pre-war levels.

 

[PBI]

Originally posted by Sigg Oddra:
[/qb]

That the recovery happens and mankind reaches the stars is already part of Traveller 2300 canon. The Twilight war is part of 2300's history. [/QB][/QUOTE]

It's in the 2300 SB? I ask because I do not own that particular tome

Also, did GDW put it in or was it added later? Just curious.

 

[mike wightman]

According to GDW legend the designers of T2300 filled in the history between the Twilight War and Traveller 2300 by playing "the great game".
Since a lot of them had a board game/war game background this probably was great fun for them, and it gave us the background to T2300.
One of the reasons I would like to have seen a 2020 version of the new Twilight is because it feeds through to Traveller 2300. By making one game an alternative universe setting the other also becomes an alternative universe as well.

 

[PBI]

Cool Guess that provided further justification for having the French be the leading power in space

Always did like that concepot, BTW. It was a refreshing change from how virtualy all sci-fi handles humanity's colonization of the stars

 

[kaladorn]

I'd have really loved to see 'the Great Game' realized in a playable format. The whole idea of evolving an entire history with about 20 people using some pseudo-game or meta-game environment sounded very interesting. Even if a bit implausible at bits, T2300 had some really interesting bits that would not have appeared in most games, and I think the way they did 'the Great Game' may have led to that. It wasn't a US-only type of history.
------------
The French are not the leading power in space!
They are the leading power in their own minds... but clearly it is the Germans. How could it not be? They have all the cool sounding equipment!

 

[TKalbfus]

PBI said,

I think the recovery would happen, but would take several hundred years, perhaps, with the global population falling to somewhere in the 20-30% of pre-war levels.

Well you seem to envision a dark age lasting several hundred years with a 20-30% reduction in population. That still leaves a population of 4.2 to 4.8 billion people. Such a population will still require advanced agricultural methods to support itself, this requires at least a mid twentieth century technology. If that technology is lost, the population would drop to under 1 billion under a medeaval tech level. For the population to be held back for several hundred years would require a much more drastic reduction in population and technology. A population reduced to 4.2 billion years might be set back about 30 years, but it would still have to be a fully modern society, and they'll quickly rebuild what was lost since they have parts of the internet that they can rebuild from, they'll fabricate new computer chips and build networks with instant communication. Science and technological progress will proceed at the same pace as it did before the war although it will be set back a few decades. If you want serveral hundred years of dark ages, you need much more technology to be lost, perhaps with the population reduced to 100 million and reduced to primitive firearms or even swords and bows. Premodern societies progress much more slowly than modern ones, they'll need to be burdened with superstition in order to take hundreds of years to recover. The Scientific method will have to be lost and political and religious orthidoxy will have to be established. That is a tall order. I suppose World War III could be viewed as a fulfillment of Biblical Prophesy by some. Some charismatic leader could pretend to be the second coming of Christ and set up a new political order for himself that is hostile to free thinkers and technological innovation. Religious Ludditism in otherwords, later on this regime could fall, but bu then the damage would be done. Much of the technology and information would have rotted to decrepitude. although a few time capsules might still be uncovered.

 

[PBI]

Actually, Tom, what I said was a reduction in population TO 20-30% of pre-war levels.

And I'm not saying that's what I envisage, I'm saying that that's what the game designers seemed to envisage, based only on T2K and the sourcebook Howling Wildnerness.

Now that I know that the 2300 timeline was (semi)intended to follow on from the Twilight War, the future looks not as bleak in the T2K world as Howling Wildnerness would suggest.

On a side note, I don't agree that susperstition is required in order to require a centuries-long recovery. If enough of the available stockspile are damaged or destriyed, coupled with a concurrent destruction and/or reduction in manufactoring capacity, it wouldn't take much to kick things back. Not to pre-industrial, but certainly to the point where it would take a long time to begin producing the modern kit and materials required.

Where will the refined oil products come from? The books indicated only a trickle of refined petrol is being produced. And what about power generation? Most of what we use today can't simply be whistled up on the spur of the moment. Unless there were sufficient areas where there were untouched stockpiles of spares and relatively undamaged, but abandoned, facilities, recovery would take a lot longer than 30 years or so, if for no other reason than the survivors would definitely not be pulling together as one unified group.

 

[TKalbfus]

PBI said,

Where will the refined oil products come from?

Ever hear of biodiesel fuel? A Diesel engine can be run on corn oil or any other vegetable oil that can be grown in farmer's fields. For the gasoline engines you have Ethenol which as any moonshiner knows can be produced with a small portable distillery. And don't forget coal. Coal is easy to mine and its easy to burn and it can be found in just about every continent. We've progressed from the Steam Age to the 21st century in just about 100 years. The World at the close of the Twilight War has about 4 billion people, which is more people that we had in 1900 AD. Now if the world can progress from the Steam age to integrated circuits in 60 years, then the technology would have to be set back further than its current state of the Art in the Year 1900. The World was not unified in 1900, there were various antagonisms that eventually led to World War I. I think if World War II killed only 30% of the World's population then progress would not be set that far back.

 

[PBI]

Tom,

Again, you mis-read what I said about global casualty figures. In the T2K book, the global casualty rate is listed at 50%. That means only 3 billion survivors. I said I thought the final casualty rate, based only on the tone implied in Howling Wilderness, would bottom out at 20-30% of pre-war population. Or, to put it another way, a final casualty rate of 70-80%.

Second, refined oil products does not mean only fuel. Plastic, for one, is something that requires petroleum products, IIRC. And there is a list of other products, not the least of which are the lubricants required to make modern machinery work. You can't use corn oil in place of tranny fluid.

Also, I don't buy your argument that tech would have to go back to pre-industrial levels i order to make my initial statements fact. The higher tech a society is, the more vulnerable it is to falling hard, especially if enough of the infrastructure and people supporting it are eliminated.

 

[Sgt Biggles]

Originally posted by PBI:

....You can't use corn oil in place of tranny fluid...
...The higher tech a society is, the more vulnerable it is to falling hard, especially if enough of the infrastructure and people supporting it are eliminated.

As the Twilight War ends the conservation efforts that would be in place for oil products (like tranny fuel) would be a major part of the mechanical recovery. Mechanics would be draining and straining the specialty oils in an effort to keep them reasonably clean. A person who owns a vehicle may have plenty of alcohol to run it with, but blew a seal and lost the engine oil. Without a way to replace it the vehicle is dead.

Most vehicles would die from lack of proper oils than maintenance issues. Scavengers could make themselves a fairly comfortable living by finding abandoned vehicles, draining out the remaining fluids, and selling them to mechanics.

There is still oil in the ground. And someone with knowledge of local oil fields could possibly be found. There will be others who are history buffs and remember how the very first oil wells were made. It will be a slow process but slowly oil production will reach the production levels of say, the late 1800’s. A major factor in the recovery of oil production will be no OPEC. Major monopolies will be broken. States and countries will be devising new methods for control and trade of the oil. Other energy sources will become viable without the major oil companies buying them out and squashing them.

I agree with PBI in that a high tech society, like ours is now, would be devastated simply due to the loss of computers. How many businesses could survive today if they lost computerized records keeping? Well over 50% would fail, probably a lot higher. Very few business owners know how to keep a master ledger with a pencil and an eraser. The high tech machinery would still be there, you could round up folks who knew how to use it and program it, but until you were able to recreate the computer operating system the item made by the machine would have to be done by hand.

So, say someone found a laptop computer which survived the EMP, and it is presumed there are some. You find a programmer who writes the code, you find an engineer to interface the laptop with the machine and find someone to operate the machine. You now have one machine operating. If this machine makes widgets it is returned to its pre-war status, unfortunately the rest of widget factory is still doing things by hand.

In another widget factory a clever worker figures out away to use the machines without a computer controlling everything. This factory isn’t back in the high tech world yet, but may in fact be the most productive widget factory. The innovative process the worker devised may become the groundwork for a whole new technology in the field of widget design. After a few years the widget factory is back at pre-war production levels but using an entirely new system. There will be lots of areas which will be relearned differently than they were first conceived. The end result is the same.

It is these kinds of changes which allow mankind to not only recover, but to move beyond what was and began the move to colonize space.

Just Thoughts

 

[PBI]

All of that is quite true and quite plausible. Never said it wasn't

In fact, that's how I'd like my T2K campaign to develop, more or less. All I was saying was that, based solely on Howling Wildnerness, and without the knowledge that GDW intended to link T2K and 2300, I thought the recovery was questionable.

Given the now-revealed linkage between T2K and 2300, it's obvious that the recovery will happen and that the coming global climte change will affect North America worse than Europe. Hence the French leading the recovery and the colonization of space.