The Solomani plague

[rancke]

Except we did not collapse due to the Spanish Flu, which if you believe the Vilani did, it is contrary to the historical evidence, and that is the stretch you are believing in.

Who said the Vilani collapsed due to the Terran plagues? Someone suggested that if a pathogen was deliberately introduced to a population prior to an invasion, the result could be that the defenses were weakened or disrupted. This has nothing to do with the canonical history which says that the plauges were carried along by the Terrans when they invaded the Vilani worlds, entire armies composed of Typhoid Marys.

I can't remember if the two pieces DGP wrote about the Plague of Duskir were authorial voice or viewpoint writing. Either way it has been suggested that those two passages should be viewed as what "everybody knows" in the Classic Era rather than the exact truth. I'm pretty sure IW takes that approach. In the Classic Era "everybody knows" that the Terrans took over Vilani worlds because the plagues killed off entire populations. When we discussed it while playtesting Rim of Fire and IW, we decided that what actually caused replacement of Vilani with Terrans was different reproductive strategies, with Terrans tending to having more kids at an earlier time of life than Vilani.

Certainly IW never mentions anything about Vilani societies collapsing or Vilani populations being drastically reduced.


Hans

 

[McPerth]

Why would they not have fungi?

At least not fungi that had to have natural defenses against the same bacteriae than human, that is what the first antibiotic was. This kind of defenses take long time of evolution and confrontation to develop.

Except we did not collapse due to the Spanish Flu, which if you believe the Vilani did, it is contrary to the historical evidence, and that is the stretch you are believing in.

When the Spanish flu no side in the war could take advantage because it took them by surprise and both sides were affected. If the Terrans release flu virus on a Vilani world and two weeks after they invade it, they will probably find it ready to surrund. And if the Terrans take with them medical personnel and drugs able to heal the local population, they will be seen as the saviors instead than the occupers.

 

[Dragoner]

Who said the Vilani collapsed due to the Terran plagues?

Read the OP.

Either way it has been suggested that those two passages should be viewed as what "everybody knows" in the Classic Era rather than the exact truth.

I don't have either of the versions, it doesn't speak highly of them if they inject that the Solomani conquest began with disease.

At least not fungi that had to have natural defenses against the same bacteriae than human, that is what the first antibiotic was. This kind of defenses take long time of evolution and confrontation to develop.

Why not, if it was from earth, it had all the same amount of time.

If the Terrans release flu virus on a Vilani world and two weeks after they invade it, they will probably find it ready to surrund. And if the Terrans take with them medical personnel and drugs able to heal the local population, they will be seen as the saviors instead than the occupers.

More likely it would stiffen resistance, these things have a tendancy to backfire; hearts and minds and all that.

 

[rancke]

Who said the Vilani collapsed due to the Terran plagues?

Read the OP.

Nowhere in the OP can I spot any mention of canonical statements about Vilani collapse due to Terran plagues.

Also, read the replies to the OP.

Either way it has been suggested that those two passages should be viewed as what "everybody knows" in the Classic Era rather than the exact truth.

I don't have either of the versions, it doesn't speak highly of them if they inject that the Solomani conquest began with disease.

They don't. Also, if they are accepted as viewpoint writing expressing common beliefs 3000 years after the fact, they don't need to be spoken of highly. They could be as accurate as any number of other historical 'facts' that "everybody knows" but isn't accurate.

If the Terrans release flu virus on a Vilani world and two weeks after they invade it, they will probably find it ready to surrund. And if the Terrans take with them medical personnel and drugs able to heal the local population, they will be seen as the saviors instead than the occupers.

More likely it would stiffen resistance, these things have a tendancy to backfire; hearts and minds and all that.

Which is very likely one of the reasons why the Terrans didn't employ bacteriological weapons.


Hans

 

[aramis]

The terrans had effective and routine quarantine provisions. The Vilani are said not to have had them against viruses, mostly because almost all their virus load was near-universal in their population. In other words, everybody was a carrier.

The Vilani had contact with a handful of human minor races, all of them in similar situations, and had been lucky that nothing terribly serious yet long-incubating had been found.

Certain virii are contagious before symptoms appear. Certain are still contagious after symptoms abate, for several days.

An airborne, moderately long incubation (10-12 days), contagious for 2-4 days prior to noticeable symptoms, and highly debilitating (7-20 days of debilitation) with high contagion... and you have the ideal situation for a pandemic that can collapse a society, at least short term. it's estimated that this is why the first reports of North American aboriginal peoples had massive numbers, but 20 years later, almost none were to be found in the same sections of coastline. (Archaeology is showing that there was a massive die-off around the late 16th and early 17th C.)

Influenza, in certain strains, can have 5-10 day incubation, with 12-48 hours before significant debility, and 1-30 days debility, some cases near total debility. Further, it's rapid evolving on Earth because of species hopping. It generally isn't lethal before the species hop; the new species is much more susceptible, and it can kill them without actually having hurt its chances all that much... and the original host (Pigs or Birds, typically) can acquire it back over population gaps.

Vilani virii have little reason to species hop, so serious virii are unlikely. Still, Terran contact would probably result in some rather nasty colds and flus, but probably not lethal ones. Terran ones would include some recent "hopped over" virii, especially if intentionally weaponized. Think H1N7 with a longer incubation, and turn it loose in a population with no exposure to similar influenza strains (and thus no relevant antibodies), little experience with really nasty virii (since highly lethal ones are self defeating when only one species can host them)... You can rapidly overwhelm the ability to care for the sick - a 20% population loss from pandemics results in cultural change historically. One could envisage up to 50% die-offs on vilani worlds from the infections; infrastructure collapse could kill the rest at that point - similar happened in some British villages and towns due to the plagues. The Plague only killed 30% to 40% of the town - the rest died or fled due to lack of social structures having the population to support the extant lifestyle.

 

[Carlobrand]

Why would they not have fungi?

They'd have fungi. Whether they'd have a fungus that produced a usable antibiotic - given that the bacteria the fungi were competing with had no taste for Homo Sapiens - this would be a different matter.

Except we did not collapse due to the Spanish Flu, which if you believe the Vilani did, it is contrary to the historical evidence, and that is the stretch you are believing in.

Who are "we". The Spanish Flu swept Axis lines before hitting Allied lines, this right at the tail end of WW-I. Result was the Axis got weakened right at the height of their spring offensive; one German commander blamed the flu for halting their offensive. By the time it jumped the lines and started hitting Allied troops, the Axis was too weak to take advantage of it. Might also have further eroded German civilian morale at a time when the civilian population was already dismayed over heavy combat losses and economic collapse - Germany lost 400,000 to the flu out of a population of a bit under 65 million. It is possible and even likely that the Spanish Flu hastened the Axis collapse and contributed to the fall of Wilhelm's government. Not solo, one of many straws - just the straw that broke the camel's back.

 

[McPerth]

They'd have fungi. Whether they'd have a fungus that produced a usable antibiotic - given that the bacteria the fungi were competing with had no taste for Homo Sapiens - this would be a different matter.

Another matter is if they would have recognized the importance of it.

Vilani society has few to none experience in fighting plagues (either bacterial, viral or fungal ones), and their cultural biases didn't faor (to say the least) pure research, so i't unlikely in first instance that some one was researching on bacteriae cutlures, and even less likely they recognizes as something important if a fungal contamination of their cutlures stoped their growth (the most probable outcome would have been to trhow the cultures to the trash as a failed test).

Except we did not collapse due to the Spanish Flu, which if you believe the Vilani did, it is contrary to the historical evidence, and that is the stretch you are believing in.

I'm now wondering if we talk about the same thing when we say collapse.

Who are "we". The Spanish Flu swept Axis lines before hitting Allied lines, this right at the tail end of WW-I. Result was the Axis got weakened right at the height of their spring offensive; one German commander blamed the flu for halting their offensive. By the time it jumped the lines and started hitting Allied troops, the Axis was too weak to take advantage of it. Might also have further eroded German civilian morale at a time when the civilian population was already dismayed over heavy combat losses and economic collapse - Germany lost 400,000 to the flu out of a population of a bit under 65 million. It is possible and even likely that the Spanish Flu hastened the Axis collapse and contributed to the fall of Wilhelm's government. Not solo, one of many straws - just the straw that broke the camel's back.

I guess you talk about a permanent social collapse, while I'm talking about a temporary sollapse, just enough to ease a planetary invasion or to disrupt military operation for a while (more akin what Carlobrand says about Spanish flu, even if less lethal.

Antibiotics don't work against viruses. Aspirin was available during the Spanish Flu, but it still killed 3-5% of Earth's population. Far from being too big a stretch of belief suspenders it is no stretch at all.

And some theories (not too accepted, and moslty defended by Karen Starko) blame aspirin poisoning for some of the death toll of the Spanish Influenza. Aspirin was available (and its patent just prescribed) and was used in high doses, but its adverse effects were not yet well known, and, according to this theory, there were many cases where it was too much used and siciae poisoning occured.

And this could as well happen to the Vilani, people not used to research and that could perfectly abused of any drug that might cure the plagues, even to the point of producing mass poisonings.

 

[McPerth]

If the Terrans release flu virus on a Vilani world and two weeks after they invade it, they will probably find it ready to surrund. And if the Terrans take with them medical personnel and drugs able to heal the local population, they will be seen as the saviors instead than the occupers.

More likely it would stiffen resistance, these things have a tendancy to backfire; hearts and minds and all that.

For that they must know that the disease has been deliberately spread. In a situation where such outbreacks were occurring as a matter of (relative) routine just due to contact, with no deliberate spreading, just another outbreack might not raise too many suspictions (mostly from a society with no history, and probably not even thoughts about biowarfare).

And this aside, use of MDW may backfire as you did or may be the Straw that broke the camel's back if things are already going bad (as the use of A-bombs in 1945).

 

[Dragoner]

They'd have fungi. Whether they'd have a fungus that produced a usable antibiotic - given that the bacteria the fungi were competing with had no taste for Homo Sapiens - this would be a different matter.

Then those bacteria would not have mattered, too much moving the goal posts, imo.

That a star faring empire of thousands of worlds and for thousands of years to have no antibiotics, is unbelievable.

Who are "we". The Spanish Flu swept Axis lines before hitting Allied lines, this right at the tail end of WW-I. Result was the Axis got weakened right at the height of their spring offensive; one German commander blamed the flu for halting their offensive. By the time it jumped the lines and started hitting Allied troops, the Axis was too weak to take advantage of it. Might also have further eroded German civilian morale at a time when the civilian population was already dismayed over heavy combat losses and economic collapse - Germany lost 400,000 to the flu out of a population of a bit under 65 million. It is possible and even likely that the Spanish Flu hastened the Axis collapse and contributed to the fall of Wilhelm's government. Not solo, one of many straws - just the straw that broke the camel's back.

No axis or allies, that is ww2, it was central and entente in ww1; and quite simply the central powers ran out of food, something that would have dire consequences in the next war. BTW, my nic dragoner, is because my great grandfather was a officer of dragoons in the Austro-Hungarian Empire.

 

[Dragoner]

For that they must know that the disease has been deliberately spread. In a situation where such outbreacks were occurring as a matter of (relative) routine just due to contact, with no deliberate spreading, just another outbreack might not raise too many suspictions (mostly from a society with no history, and probably not even thoughts about biowarfare).

And this aside, use of MDW may backfire as you did or may be the Straw that broke the camel's back if things are already going bad (as the use of A-bombs in 1945).

It is of popular fiction that the bombs broke the Japanese, not proven though.

I find myself leery of the idea that the Vilani did not have any idea of biowar, early forms such as lauching corpses over walls or poisoning wells with animal carcasses are seen at very low TL's historically.

 

[McPerth]

I find myself leery of the idea that the Vilani did not have any idea of biowar, early forms such as lauching corpses over walls or poisoning wells with animal carcasses are seen at very low TL's historically.

True, but that's the history of a people for which infectious diseases were a big problem, often producing more casualties in war than combat. By canon, this is not the case with the Vilani, who had never had big problems with infections.

If I believe they had no idea about biowar, it's only for lack of biological agents effective for it, not because I think the Vilani are more scrupulous about it than the Terrans (In fact, V&V tells us they have few qualms about using MDW when they decide that war is justified).

 

[Carlobrand]

... too much moving the goal posts, imo...

???

... That a star faring empire of thousands of worlds and for thousands of years to have no antibiotics, is unbelievable. ...

Belief should be evidence-based, IMO. Nathan's GURPS quote a few posts back puts Vilani medical science at about WW-II/Cold War Terra equivalent at the time they encountered the Sol humans. They were star-faring, but according to GURPS they were nowhere near so advanced in medicine.

We really don't have a canon statement on antibiotics, nor do we know the extent to which their medical science advanced with respect to infectious disease as a result of contacts after discovering jump tech. We do know that canon states, "there were few human diseases" (Supplement 8). Circumstances on Vland mitigate against discovery of antibiotics by Vilani, given that the only bacteria that threatened the Vilani were already in their bodies and didn't seem to cross over to native Vland species.

However, existence of antibiotics can't be ruled out completely - the fact that the Vland ecology was so alien to the Vilani does not rule out the possibility of a serendipitous discovery, some chemical in some plant or animal that, by coincidence, also had antibiotic properties against Terran diseases. Humans are rather good at exploiting their environment. It also remains possible that the Vilani learned of antibiotics post-jump-discovery through contact with some other human group prior to the Solomani - as you pointed out, some of the other human groups lived in ecologies similar enough to Terra for those systems to have been considered potential candidates for the human homeworld.

No axis or allies, that is ww2, it was central and entente in ww1.

Oops! My bad, sorry.

... and quite simply the central powers ran out of food, something that would have dire consequences in the next war. BTW, my nic dragoner, is because my great grandfather was a officer of dragoons in the Austro-Hungarian Empire.

It is a family history to be proud of, but the end of WW-I was anything but simple. There were many factors involved, and disease was in fact one of them. The German army faced imminent defeat, their reserves spent in their Spring Offensive, falling back before an Entente offensive backed by fresh American troops. With six million casualties over the course of the war, and with their recent offensive weakened by disease, the Germans simply no longer had reserves in the numbers needed to replace their combat losses and sustain the war effort. The Balkans collapse had cut Germany off from sources of food and supplies - the food problem you mention. Also a factor was the Russian Revolution of the year before, which had emboldened left-wing German parties opposed to the war: the German collapse and surrender was in fact precipitated by the mutiny of sailors at Kiel, an incident that triggered revolts in other cities.

 

[McPerth]

Circumstances on Vland mitigate against discovery of antibiotics by Vilani, given that the only bacteria that threatened the Vilani were already in their bodies and didn't seem to cross over to native Vland species.

However, existence of antibiotics can't be ruled out completely - the fact that the Vland ecology was so alien to the Vilani does not rule out the possibility of a serendipitous discovery, some chemical in some plant or animal that, by coincidence, also had antibiotic properties against Terran diseases. Humans are rather good at exploiting their environment. It also remains possible that the Vilani learned of antibiotics post-jump-discovery through contact with some other human group prior to the Solomani - as you pointed out, some of the other human groups lived in ecologies similar enough to Terra for those systems to have been considered potential candidates for the human homeworld.

In my opinión, the adding of both bold part (bold is mine) will give that those natural antibiotics would be seen as detrimental by the Vilani people, as the depletion of their intestinal flora would give them more illnesses tan any cure they could attain from them.

As they have few (if any) problems with bacterial infections, those posible natural antibiotics would be more likely to be seen as poisoning than as a cure for something they had no problem with.

 

[Dragoner]

By canon...

Parts of canon are suboptimal, I believe most would agree on that; now I don't believe in retcons, but the proper solution isn't to build upon the suboptimal parts. Nor to include statements about what happened to indigenous people in the Americas, which has unfortunate connotations.

Belief should be evidence-based, IMO.

Logic can substitute, but the logic that a star faring civilization of thousands of worlds, and with Terran animals, would say they had some medical ability, a better real world example is that of the developed world versus undeveloped Africa, while there may be more diseases in Africa, they do not pose a massive threat to western civilization.

GURPS quote a few posts back puts Vilani medical science at about WW-II/Cold War Terra equivalent at the time they encountered the Sol humans. They were star-faring, but according to GURPS they were nowhere near so advanced in medicine.

Gurps-verse is fine for what they want to do, but afiak, it seems gurps is only canon if Marc says it is; barring that, it is best not to use that as an example.

We really don't have a canon statement on antibiotics...

Exactly, and I'd let that sleeping dog lie.

... the German collapse and surrender was in fact precipitated by the mutiny of sailors at Kiel, an incident that triggered revolts in other cities.

Germany neither collapsed or surrendered; food riots broke out in German cities (Germany did not have enough nitrates for both food and HE production) where upon Ludendorf and Hindenburg told the Kaiser that the Army no longer supported him. The army actually continued fighting in the east at the behest of the entente powers long after hostilities ceased in the west; it also put down the uprisings in Berlin and Munich. Disease was there, mostly severe typhus, but it did not end the war the way the German Army did.

 

[Carlobrand]

...
Gurps-verse is fine for what they want to do, but afiak, it seems gurps is only canon if Marc says it is; barring that, it is best not to use that as an example.

I agree that GURPS is problematic as canon, best used in an FYI sense and then let people decide for themselves if they want to embrace it or chuck it out the window. If I have to rest a point on GURPS alone, I tend to feel that I'm on shaky ground - unless of course we're in a GURPS forum, which this isn't. GURPS to me has that feel of a Star Trek alternate universe: a lot of familiar points but something isn't quite right.

...Exactly, and I'd let that sleeping dog lie.

My sleeping dogs like to be scratched under the ear as they doze.

Germany neither collapsed or surrendered; food riots broke out in German cities (Germany did not have enough nitrates for both food and HE production) where upon Ludendorf and Hindenburg told the Kaiser that the Army no longer supported him. The army actually continued fighting in the east at the behest of the entente powers long after hostilities ceased in the west; it also put down the uprisings in Berlin and Munich. Disease was there, mostly severe typhus, but it did not end the war the way the German Army did.

I fear that arguing the point further when my sources say something different from you would be fruitless and frustrating for us both, not to mention aggravating for bystanders who would prefer something more game-oriented. Ergo, I think best we do as the historians do and just agree to disagree on the point.

 

[kafka47]

"Terran physicians fought a fierce battle against the plagues on Nusku, and also traveled deep into Imperial territory to help deal with disease outbreaks there. Vaccines and anti-viral therapies were mass-produced and shipped everywhere, saving millions if not billions of Vilani lives. This work was critical in winning the respect of Vilani populations – but the plagues had already presented the Vilani ruling class with yet another reason to deal decisively with the Terran challenge." GURPS: Interstellar Wars p.60-61

versus

[FONT=arial,helvetica]That's certainly a conclusion any conspiracy theorist would jump to at the drop of a hat, but without corroberating evidence it's just an unsupported allegation.

There's no reason to invoke sinister black ops to explain these plagues; invading troops are not likely to observe proper quarantine procedures.

One must also consider that you can't use such tactics against people with sophisticated bureaucratic traditions without it being blindingly obvious, as the survivors would be able to trace outbreaks back to mysterious index cases and realize that it is down to biological warfare from offworld. I think there could be a coldly pragmatic reason not to employ such weapons, as it might well turn a fight to resist being subjugated into a fight not to have Earth sterilized down to the bedrock.[/FONT]

Like many good games...I find conspiracies engaging. The secret or the layer of the onion is to uncover that it was not so much willful but when "accidents" happen then it is well within the art of war to maximize each situation to their advantage.

They are only conspiracies, if they ultimately fail. Otherwise, they are simply manipulations. Ask any Hiver.

My point is that the Vilani were a high tech civilization with all the trappings of such which must have completely floored the Terrans when they visited their worlds that they must have thought they would have stepped into Tomorrowland. Then, when suddenly, one of them caught a flu/gribe on one of those worlds and asked to be taken to a hospital. And, suddenly find his ailment treated by a witch doctor (ie Shugaii) must have been relayed back to Central Command, as just one more tool in the arsenal for the upcoming war that everyone knew was coming but dare not to speak its name.

I always am inspired by medics who think they are doing good but really upholding the status quo (guess watching too much M*A*S*H, as a kid) - undoubtedly Medicins sans Frontiers believe they are carrying out the legacy of their New Left/Maoist founder - but imagine the confusion when he came around to support Gulf War 2. So, I am merely saying the road to Vland is also paved with good intentions, as well as military might.

For the Terrans knew they could not take on the full might of the Empire but when they found the insignificant but numerous bacteria were the weakness - it is HG Wells all over again. The Germ is stronger than the Plasma Gun.

 

[BlackBat242]

As an aside which is surprisingly relevant here...

In early 1986 I was assigned temporary duty away from my maintenance squadron (I was USMC 6/1981-6/1989). I was assigned to the base (MCAS El Toro) headquarters squadron for 6 months, and ended up in the ID office, making ID cards for military personnel, dependents, and civilian base contractors.

One day a couple of guys came in to have their military IDs and security passes renewed. Looking at their paperwork I noticed two things... first, that they were assigned to the 3rd Marine Air Wing G-2 office (Intell), and second that they looked really familiar... in fact I remembered that they had been in just a couple of weeks before, but for civilian contractor IDs!

After they left I went and looked in the logbooks, and sure enough... there they were, in the civilian contractor book as civilian employees of this organization: Travelers Aid International

Since I had been playing our game since the summer of 1983, you can see why they had made an impression on me the first time they were in the office.

Of course I don't need to draw any more of the picture, now do I?

 

[rancke]

My point is that the Vilani were a high tech civilization with all the trappings of such which must have completely floored the Terrans when they visited their worlds that they must have thought they would have stepped into Tomorrowland. Then, when suddenly, one of them caught a flu/gribe on one of those worlds and asked to be taken to a hospital. And, suddenly find his ailment treated by a witch doctor (ie Shugaii) must have been relayed back to Central Command, as just one more tool in the arsenal for the upcoming war that everyone knew was coming but dare not to speak its name.

It could have worked out that way. But, as I've pointed out a couple of times now, it turns out for a fact that "historically" it just didn't happen that way.


Hans

 

[JimMarn]

One major diference among the diseases the Amerindians received and the one the Europeans received is the transmission way. As most the diseases Europe exported were airborne transmited, and so had the potential of explosive outbreaks, a sexual transmited one will be quite slower to transmit, and explosive outbreaks are more difficult.

Some of the Conquistadores that talked to the Aztecs had open smallpox sores. Saw that mentoned recently on History channel.

I may as well say some of my ancestors are European and some Native American. ( Commance, Scot, Netherlands, long list left off) I'm immune to smallpox, a smallpox vaccination won't take, a doctor told me why. So some of my Native American ancestors caught it and lived.

I also know someone with a spot on one lung. Its a non-contagious form of tuberculosis. One of their Native American ancestors caught it, and passed it on as an immunity. Again, from a medical doctor's information who did a CAT scan and then asked about ancestry of that person.

Oh, and no it doesn't bother me if someone says AmerInd, Americanindians, etc.