Milieu Overview?

[robject]

The Wave and TGI

I've started to research the Zhodani and Vargr in the GURPS sources, to see if they set down any dates and any suggestions in the text. I'm expecting to see nothing at all, but you never know.

We know that the Wave hits the "official" coreward border of Charted Space around 1120 -- that's the edge of the Consulate and the 'official' Extents. Thus the GURPS timeline has been living with an on-coming Wave for a couple of decades. At some point, the Imperium would realize that Something Bad is Coming.

Alien Races 1: Zhodani and Vargr

The timeline shows that the book is written in a 1120 frame of reference (page 41). There's no evidence that the TGI has a Wave crashing on the Joe's border in 1120. Page 37:

The Zhodani Consulate’s stability appears as rock-solid as ever, and its sheer size and multileveled government makes it difficult for any one catastrophe to overwhelm it. Unless a truly unexpected event takes place, it is here to stay.

Canon, via Marc and Don, is that the Zhodani decided to keep the Wave a secret.

OK.

But the Vargr Extents are not organized -- at all -- and there are Humans and other sophonts living there. News would spread, chaotically and inevitably, and at some point it breaches the awareness of Imperials.


The Imperium: Life Goes On

Since TGI doesn't have the Wave (at all), there's no sense of existential urgency about the major powers. That includes the Third Imperium.

I suggest that awareness begins some time in the 1120s, and it is a certainty by 1160 at the latest.

 

[mike wightman]

The wave being FTL produces another diverging world line.

GDW Imperium->CT->MT->1148->TNE lightspeed wave

MWM? Imperium->AotI->CT->MT->1148->TNE ftl wave making the events of 1148-> divergent.

 

[robject]

GDW Imperium->CT->MT->1148->TNE lightspeed wave

MWM? Imperium->AotI->CT->MT->1148->TNE ftl wave making the events of 1148-> divergent.

There ARE multiple diverging lines that include the "slow wave", but they're ATU at that point.

I can see a lot of ways to combine elements of these timelines; it's not just that there's one per ruleset (more or less).

 

[robject]

The Counter-Conspiracy

Due to the interesting exit of Varian six days after the announcement of Dulinor's assassination, I suppose it probable that a traitor within Dulinor's team was in communication with him. This is on the same day that Strephon announces Dulinor's replacement.

Capital/Core (2118-A586A98-F) 137-1116
Prince Varian Paulo Alkhalikoi, nephew of the Emperor Strephon, announced today that he has decided to leave Capital on an extended vacation from the Imperial court.

"Life at the Imperial Court is a wondrous experience," said the prince, "however, I feel that I am missing an even more wondrous and varied experience to be had by getting away from the pressures of the palace and seeing more of the various societies and cultures that make up the Imperium. I hope to spend some time getting to know a few of the 11,000 worlds a little better." Varian announced no itinerary, but said he plans to try to travel incognito to the greatest extent possible.

The Emperor has not commented officially on his nephew's announcement, but indicated privately that he feels that travel cannot but help to improve anyone's character. Varian's brother Lucan has chosen to remain at court, and refused to comment on his brother's announcement, other than to wish him a safe journey.

This would make it a long-distance counter-conspiracy, where the time between Dlan and Capital is 82 parsecs. At Jump-6 that would require at least 14 weeks' communication time, by human courier of course. Assuming a minimal one-round-trip time requirement, that would require at least 28 weeks.

Say you could do it in 200 days (unlikely but possible). Thus the co-conspiracy, by necessity only a very few people, would set its course no later than 302-1115. Double the minimum time (400 days) puts us at around 100-1115.

 

[robject]

Referring to Don's Zhodani book, here is canonical information about the Wave. I have no reason to assume the Lorenverse diverged during the Seventh Core Expedition (e.g. Imperial year 753), so we have the Wave arriving as expected. I can only assume that the chaos along the core border of the Vargr Extents will come back in scattered and semi-coherent reports that will be ignored until it's too late.

But, by the time it hits Gvurrdon, and possibly sooner, it can't be ignored, and the Grand Imperium will have 40? years to "prepare" for it.

Less than 400 parsecs down the route, the expedition received reports of turmoil on settled worlds coreward along the expedition’s path. When lead elements arrived in the Prinjobliedl sector in 753, they were forced to assist various worlds suffering from a variety of perplexing problems. ...

Whatever was happening, it was striking at the very heart of Zhodani culture. Individuals with strong psionic talents would suddenly go insane, Proles would suddenly realise they were furiously unhappy, Nobles and Intendants would turn on each other and no one knew what to do about it or even how to deal with the effects. The result on most worlds was anarchy and bloodshed.

The expedition commander divided her force, leaving the slower and mostly civilian ships behind while continuing on towards the mission goal. When the relief force arrived, it began to collate the data, while starting a review of the mental health of all settled worlds in Vlanchiets Qlom province (all Zhodani-settled territory coreward of Chtierabl sector). They discovered that a band of settled worlds along the route had all experienced similar effects. What was also odd was the returning data from the Seventh Core Expedition as it proceeded coreward, reporting that the problems disappeared about 2,000 parsecs coreward along the route. Much worse was the data indicating that whatever this phenomenon was, it was travelling backwards along the route towards Zhdant at the rate of approximately one parsec a year. Thus it could be estimated that sometime in 1183, this phenomenon would strike Zhdant, ripping apart the very heart of the Consulate. This ‘effect’ was named the Fienzhatshtiavl (literally, ‘Yonder chilling thought’).

To prevent panic, the Qlomdlabr chose to suppress this information and use the resources remaining for the expeditions to evacuate Nobles in the path. Qlomdlabr-approved researchers worked to find a way to identify and detect the phenomenon, to ensure the safety of rescue efforts and to support continued study of the effect. As of 1105, the Fienzhatshtiavl extends halfway across Viajlefliez, Bleblqansh, Driasera, Dalchie Jdatl, Chit Botshti, Anzsidiadl and Zheranzanj sectors, continuing its rimward march unabated.

 

[mike wightman]

The wave didn't exist in the Lorenverse.

Another thing to consider is the retcon to the wave for MGT would change Zhodani strategy for the 5FW - if they face an existential threat that only the Rhylanor maguffin would offer hope to mitigating then their full force would be dedicated to taking Rhylanor at all costs - something the Imperials would not be able to resist.

I wonder if Mongoose will take that into account when they embark on their ATU 5FW...

 

[robject]

Another thing to consider is the retcon to the wave for MGT would change Zhodani strategy for the 5FW - if they face an existential threat that only the Rhylanor maguffin would offer hope to mitigating then their full force would be dedicated to taking Rhylanor at all costs - something the Imperials would not be able to resist.

What do you think the 5FW was all about?

 

[mike wightman]

The same thing as the last four wars, all of which the Zhodani won. To curtail Imperial advancement into the Marches.

 

[tjoneslo]

The single canon reference to the Wave is in Survival Margin p. 7. When Don was writing the Zhodani book to change the light speed wave to the FTL wave, this was the single point of concurrence between the two.

---

Data currency indicates constant +1C closure rate, arrival at meridian 78, prime radial, in 90 years.

 

[robject]

The single canon reference to the Wave is in Survival Margin p. 7. When Don was writing the Zhodani book to change the light speed wave to the FTL wave, this was the single point of concurrence between the two.

---

Yep, part of the math was that the Wave had to hit Imperial borders around 1201. I've forgotten (again) why they sped it up. Now you're making me look it up again.

 

[robject]

TGI and Marc Miller 1: The Point of Departure

So I spoke with Marc today and asked him about The Grand Imperium's timeline.

He had nothing to add. Loren didn't confide in him.

Marc was not familiar with any of it -- Dulinor's gig being sabotaged to explode in orbit around Capital, likely taking the saboteur's life along with Dulinor's and whoever else was on it. He well understood the likelihood of a point of departure earlier than 1116, but agreed that of course the setting does just fine without any info. What Loren provided was more than sufficient to sustain the setting.

Marc did provide one piece of guidance: that a change to create a setting doesn't have to cause a lot of major changes. Thus the divergence doesn't cause problems, it only presents opportunities.

 

[robject]

TGI and Marc Miller 2: The Wave

So I spoke with Marc today and asked him about The Grand Imperium and the Wave. He agreed that the Zhodani probably played things like they do in the OTU -- suppression.

I hypothesized an Imperium-wide panic by the 1160s at the latest, accompanied by massive expenditures and Wave-hopping colony moons, flight to the Outer Magellanic Cloud, etc etc. That when the Wave hits the main chunk of the Extents in the 1120s, there would be a vague awareness in the Imperium of Something Coming. By the 1160s we'd be at Wave Certainty.

He then disagreed with my hypothesis of how Imperial citizens would react to knowledge of the Wave. He gave as a counter-example the way Floridians react to hurricanes, and how residents on certain far-northern England islands live as their islands (slowly) disappear under the sea.

In short, he gave a different kind of economic analysis, formed by individuals timing their exits based on their needs of the moment (perhaps simply because the Wave's movement is so utterly predictable.)

He then explained about one's feelings about the Wave in terms of an individual's lifetime.

Let's assume for the sake of discussion that the Traveller lifetime is close enough to 90 years on average. I think this is roughly Marc's take -- that those who cannot afford anagathics don't really live much longer than we do, though it might be freer from discomfort for more people.

Marc is in his 70s. Suppose he is living on Regina in 1160, when the Wave is entering the coreward edge of Gvurrdon -- 49 parsecs away. Marc wouldn't feel the need to move. His kids are all out on their own.

Say one of his kids is 55, living on Dentus. They might decide to move into the Marches further, but stay in the Imperium -- perhaps closer to a brother or sister's family. Say they move to Fulacin to herd groats.

Then in 1190, the Wave is about 21 years away from Fulacin. His kid will be 85. By Marc's calculus, HE won't move either (this is where Marc's view of anagathics and medicine may differ from yours).

Marc's grandchildren, however, are now likely in their 60s, and probably want to move... but they don't have to move far if they don't want to.

THEIR children, however, will want to find land a couple subsectors south, but they'd still want to be in the Imperium. The Glisten subsector would work. By 1230 or so anyone in Glisten would start thinking about Pax Rulin or Tobia or crossing the Rift.

 

[Grav_Moped]

And there'll be re-colonization attempts on the more habitable worlds behind the Wave, eventually.

 

[robject]

And there'll be re-colonization attempts on the more habitable worlds behind the Wave, eventually.

That's right.

 

[Condottiere]

Foundation.

Mote in God's Eye.

Considering there are trillions of citizens, selected individuals with access to complete archives will be placed in a variety of arks, hoping that one or more can survive, more or less in tact, the Wave rolling over them, and then kickstart human civilization.

 

[Condottiere]

Economics?

 

[TheDark]

One thing I don't remember seeing anywhere is how thick the Wave is. If it's thin enough, a simple in-system jump could avoid the effects. Using Sol system as an example, Neptune's orbit is 4.1 light-minutes in radius or 8.2 light-minutes in diameter. A 1-week jump inside the system would last far longer than it takes the leading edge to cross the entire system, so unless it lasts for multiple weeks (or affects Jumpspace) it should be possible to evade its effects with an in-system jump, no migration needed.

 

[robject]

It's only one-month thick: any starship can jump over it.

I don't think a lot of people get evacuated off of these worlds, so there will be pieces to pick up. Check out my topic on the Wave and Dystopian Colonies -- the rule is failure of society within a decade of the Wave passing through a system.

 

[whartung]

When Don was writing the Zhodani book to change the light speed wave to the FTL wave, this was the single point of concurrence between the two.

Maybe it sped up?

 

[robject]

Neat idea. Like the way a water-wave speeds up as it approaches land. Strange.