How did Dulinor succeed?

[kazrak]

The thread about how Lucan managed to lose reminded me of one of my eternal questions on the Rebellion:

How did Dulinor fire four shots from a pistol, at a range sufficient that he didn't get tackled by an Aslan (canonically fast pouncers, although this one may have been old), with at least two moving targets, and get four kills that were beyond the ability of TL15 medicine to heal?

 

[kazrak]

So, for grins and giggles, I decided to see if the assassination is even possible given the MegaTraveller rules. (tl;dr - yes, but only because Dulinor is a munchkin and the Aslan ambassador didn't jump him.)

The Rebellion Sourcebook describes the weapon as a magnum revolver, and Travellers' Digest #9 gives Dulinor's stats as 898CBF with Handgun-4.

Strephon, Iolanthe, and Iphegenia have stats of 667ABF, 48BB8F, and 57498F. (Same source, but Iolanthe's and Iphegenia's are from 1104, not 1116. Iphegenia's may have gone up, since she was only 15; Iolanthe's might have gone down due to aging.)

The same issue of Travellers Digest gives the rolls required for Dulinor - routine task at short range, target number 7, +5DM. Problem: Short range is under 5m, and an Aslan can move 6m in one round. Before he can fire his third shot, he's in hand-to-hand combat with somebody with a dewclaw.

But we'll assume that the ambassador is too slow due to age. Okay. A magnum revolver does damage 3. Problem: damage 3 (3 dice) won't kill any of those people, since you only apply a die of damage to one stat. Dulinor absolutely needs an exceptional success (succeed by 2 or more, which doubles damage) to be able to kill in one shot. This is not actually unreasonable for the first two shots, with that +5 DM - it's still a roll of 4+, and 6+ would quadruple damage, which makes a kill almost a guarantee.

We know the ambassador is moving, so there's at least a -1DM due to that. So, a roll of 7+ is necessary to really be sure of a fatal shot. Still better than even odds. If the ambassador is charging Dulinor, that's a -3DM or so - 9+ isn't an unreasonable roll, and 7+ is still 6D damage, probably enough to kill.

And then we get to the Crown Princess. (She's had 2 rounds to react. She should be hiding behind the Iridium Throne by now. I assume it'll stop a bullet.) She can move at most 2 squares, evading, which is a -4DM on the attack. He needs an 8+ to have any chance at a kill, 10+ to guarantee it.

His odds aren't as bad as I'd thought, but he's totally munchkinned out to have that chance. (Handgun-4? Seriously?)

 

[aramis]

The thread about how Lucan managed to lose reminded me of one of my eternal questions on the Rebellion:

How did Dulinor fire four shots from a pistol, at a range sufficient that he didn't get tackled by an Aslan (canonically fast pouncers, although this one may have been old), with at least two moving targets, and get four kills that were beyond the ability of TL15 medicine to heal?

the latter is easy - head-shots. The one organ you can't replace.

As for the former - distance? Allies?
We know that high nobles were allowed to carry a ceremonial sidearm... so the question really becomes, "How did the audience chamber not become a free-for-all firefight?"

 

[McPerth]

The thread about how Lucan managed to lose reminded me of one of my eternal questions on the Rebellion:

How did Dulinor fire four shots from a pistol, at a range sufficient that he didn't get tackled by an Aslan (canonically fast pouncers, although this one may have been old), with at least two moving targets, and get four kills that were beyond the ability of TL15 medicine to heal?

About the aslan, maybe because he was surprised (how long takes to shoot 4 rounds wiht a revolver?) and probably not properly clothed to move quickly.

As for the rest, maybe because the guards on duty there were loyal to him instead than to the Emperor?

Remember it is specified that the Ilelish Regiment was on duty that day, and they took care of the IISS and Marines security also present.

Even TL15 medicine must act quickly to sabe an otherwise dead body, andd the first moments where full chaos, and IIRC it is specified the Ilelish Guards barricaded in the room and it took seveara days to assault them.

Even hours would have prevented to recover Strephon's body to revive him...

 

[McPerth]

(Handgun-4? Seriously?)

Not so rare...

Aside what you learn a usual skills in your career, just roll enough times a weapon in mustering out, and you can end up with a fairly high skill on it....

 

[mike wightman]

Check the MT surprise rules, it is possible Dulinor had the advantage of surprise...

 

[whartung]

(tl;dr - yes, but only because Dulinor is a munchkin and the Aslan ambassador didn't jump him.)

Ah HA! Intergalactic conspiracy in the Royal Court! The Aslan were IN ON IT! The truth is out!

His odds aren't as bad as I'd thought, but he's totally munchkinned out to have that chance. (Handgun-4? Seriously?)

Which is why I like it for "game fiction" to take creative license with the system in order to get the results they want, rather than writing RAW.

When you Game, you're looking at effects at the top of the bell curve of probability, with the rare joys and sorrows of what happens when the rolls reach the edges.

In fiction, an awful lot of it happens at the edges. Most of the good parts, especially.

Even if the combat system made the attack UNpossible, the story should still stand.

 

[infojunky]

Now for some JFK sized Conspiracy Theories....

 

[kazrak]

Not so rare...

Aside what you learn a usual skills in your career, just roll enough times a weapon in mustering out, and you can end up with a fairly high skill on it....

The weird thing is, he had Handgun-4 before he even became an Archduke. (He shows up in the 1104 adventure in Traveller's Digest #9.) He's better at handgun than Admin or Leader. (By 1116, he's brought both of those up to 4 as well, from 3.)

I guess he just really liked guns, and then realized that he could use his handgun skill for a promotion.

 

[kazrak]

Check the MT surprise rules, it is possible Dulinor had the advantage of surprise...

He only gets one round; a gunshot is sufficient to alert others.

So, round 1, he has surprise, he shoots and kills Strephon.
Round 2: It's unclear who gets initiative, since nobody on either side has Tactics skill. I'll give it to Dulinor. He shoots and kills Iolanthe. The Aslan can now move and gives cover to Iphegenia.
Round 3: Dulinor actually "misses" here, technically - he kills the Aslan instead of Iphegenia. Iphegenia dithers. (In her defense, she's had a bad 18 seconds, what with her parents being shot dead and her guards shooting each other.)
Round 4: Dulinor shoots and kills Iphegenia.

 

[kazrak]

Ah HA! Intergalactic conspiracy in the Royal Court! The Aslan were IN ON IT! The truth is out!


Which is why I like it for "game fiction" to take creative license with the system in order to get the results they want, rather than writing RAW.

When you Game, you're looking at effects at the top of the bell curve of probability, with the rare joys and sorrows of what happens when the rolls reach the edges.

In fiction, an awful lot of it happens at the edges. Most of the good parts, especially.

Even if the combat system made the attack UNpossible, the story should still stand.

Oh, I realize. This is just part of my general grouchiness about the Rebellion in the first place, I assume.

 

[epicenter00]

with at least two moving targets, and get four kills that were beyond the ability of TL15 medicine to heal?

Perhaps there aren't that many moving targets. It's not as glamorous as masculine fantasies of heroism and human interest news stories - but not everyone is in "fight or flight" mode. Many freeze. In fact, I'd argue freezing is the most logical thing that would have happened.

Dulinor isn't some strange or semi-stranger. He's pretty close to being a family friend. Isis and Iphengia were friends. It's like your uncle coming to see you. You're even in the same political party. You and he have had disagreed on how urgent reforms in the country were, but he's kept it civil. He one day comes to see you, then he pulls a pistol out and immediately starts shooting - no shouting political manifestos or muttered apologies or threats.

I think it's quite reasonable to imagine Iphengia and Iolanthe were standing there in shock trying to figure out how the world has suddenly gone utterly mad instead and just standing there dumbfounded trying to figure out what is going on; none of the Imperial family are true combat veterans - Iolanthe was a flag officer, but as an noble officer in the Navy it seems unlikely she'd have seen combat anywhere except on the bridge of a starship.

How did Dulinor fire four shots from a pistol, at a range sufficient that he didn't get tackled by an Aslan (canonically fast pouncers, although this one may have been old)

It's possible to take the "reverse" point of view and say that the Aslan ambassador could have -- but he didn't.

By many accounts, Aslan society is a place where promotion by challenge-by-combat is a legitimate strategy.

So he sees Dulinor start taking shots at the Emperor and he actually is the one who recognizes it for what it is: Dulinor is challenging the Emperor by combat. While the method is dishonorable by Aslan standards (the guy should have had the self-respect to challenge the Emperor properly), it's another culture. So perhaps the ambassador decided this is a human/foreign matter and was none of his business by instinct (as an ambassador, he shouldn't actually have been doing anything). Only after a moment did he decide to do something.

We know that high nobles were allowed to carry a ceremonial sidearm... so the question really becomes, "How did the audience chamber not become a free-for-all firefight?"

I believe the audience chamber was cleared of almost everyone except the for the Aslan ambassador, the Imperial family, and Dulinor. There were commoners present, but they were in compromised in some way by Dulinor (their weapons weren't loaded) or were actively on his side.

 

[Vargas]

The answer is imperial fiat?

 

[jcrocker]

Some good explanations for the events in the Throne Room, but the Rebellion as a whole was New Edition Fiat, from what I could see.

 

[martletsquire]

'now for some jfk level conspiracy...'

Okay, challenge accepted.

Dulinor was working with a Solomani separationist group, founded in the remains of the ancient city of Dlles or something like that. They in turn actually managed, with the aid of frog DNA, to create multiple clones of a LeaHarvi Ozuwalt, and inserted the clones into Dulinor's entourage...

The ensuing coverup included all the clones getting shot by various people named after gemstones while being held by the authorities.


Hmmmmmm….. Seems plausible?

 

[BwapTED]

This makes me think it would be fun to do an alternate timeline in which Iphigenia survives the coup attempt/assassinations and flees to the Aslan (fleeing Lucan and Dulinor)

 

[McPerth]

This makes me think it would be fun to do an alternate timeline in which Iphigenia survives the coup attempt/assassinations and flees to the Aslan (fleeing Lucan and Dulinor)

It exists.

I once read it, but I could not find it again, so I cannot give you the direction of the page it was...

 

[BRJN]

This makes me think it would be fun to do an alternate timeline in which Iphigenia survives the coup attempt/assassinations and flees to the Aslan (fleeing Lucan and Dulinor)

Inspired by the observations above and the Freelance Traveller article "Wounded Colossus," I'm working on an IMTU alternate timeline where Strephon survives (kinda sorta) the assassination but is in a coma for a year plus, recovering. His loyal subordinates have to protect him from Lucan while wrestling him from the Grim Reaper's grasp. Good thing the Emperor has access to TL 15.999-and-above medical techniques.

I'm also going to add the 'Better Solomani Strategy' ideas (from the other thread), just to give Emperor Strephon an extra challenge.

I can imagine a scene involving Margaret's heir-child and Strephon, but I haven't figured out how to work that into the timeline yet. The little one is the person who lets Strephon Alkaholoi (sp?) break out from within the Emperor Strephon mask.