How Advanced is the Spinward Marches?

[kafka47]

For me the Spinward Marches is like the United States of 1880s. Parts of it are very advanced and could easily compete with the great cities of the world...London and New York were not far apart in development nor Boston and Paris. Other parts of the United States were dusty settlements that one day would grow to become great cities in their own right - St. Paul's. Then scattered around you have strange things like Texas and California.

Combined and Uneven Development is the best way to characterize my version of the Marches. Unable to stand on its own...but self sufficient enough that it could be one of the powerhouses of the Imperium...Core, Solomani Rim, Verge, Illeish, Massilia, being some of the others.

 

[Whipsnade]

First, we implicitly assume interstellar influence and interference.

Robject,

Agreed. With the proviso that, given canonical economics, influence is much harder to project than interference. In other words, it's far easier for me to affect a colony negatively than positively.

Second, I'm borrowing Marc's assumption that pop 1-5 worlds can change their population levels year to year. A concerted effort can start or finish a colony in those size ranges.

Agreed. With the proviso that concerted efforts have been noticeably lacking in the Marches due to the host of issues I wrote about earlier.

Third, the Marches more or less has the same population distribution as the rest of Known Space. This indicates to me that Far Trader, Icosahedron and Hans may be onto something, here: planets have an optimum population level (Hans) that is reached fairly quickly (i.e. <1100 years) (Far Trader & Icosahedron).

Agreed. I've been a strong supporter of the idea of MSP(1) since it was first suggested during Hard Times. I also would not mind in the slightest if nearly all canonical population codes were retconned with MSRP in mind.


Regards,
Bill

1 - maximum sustainable population

 

[Peter Schutze]

>I've been a strong supporter of the idea of MSP(1)

The problem I see in OTU type easy local and interstellar movement universes is that the MSP figure logically becomes closely tied to trade. Thus to be meaningful MSP would have to be judged at the level (in the OTU primarily mains and subsector) at which trade flows balance out, rather than on a world or system basis, effectively making it meaningless.

Take real world mining towns or military towns as an example .... they can't sustain (ie feed) themselves on local (say 20km radius) resources. Some US States or real world countries cant even feed themselves for that matter

besides the no-trade example of Hard Times the best example is the Foundation series .... the capital's sky (trantor ?) is darkened by ships bringing food

 

[Whipsnade]

The problem I see in OTU type easy local and interstellar movement universes is that the MSP figure logically becomes closely tied to trade. Thus to be meaningful MSP would have to be judged at the level (in the OTU primarily mains and subsector) at which trade flows balance out, rather than on a world or system basis, effectively making it meaningless.

Peter,

We're talking about substantial planetary populations and not populations at "outpost" levels. Trade may feed hundreds of thousands, trade will not feed hundreds of millions.

Take real world mining towns or military towns as an example .... they can't sustain (ie feed) themselves on local (say 20km radius) resources. Some US States or real world countries cant even feed themselves for that matter.

Your analogy is faulty. You're ignoring the non-"shirtsleeve" environments and relatively high shipping costs that exist in the OTU and not in the Real World. The real world mining camps, military bases, and Zimbabwes of your example could feed themselves if they absolutely needed to do so while populations on an asteroid colony, airless world, or other non-"shirtsleeve" planet could not. A megacorp freighter trader arriving at Glisten with a variety of foodstuffs is in no way comparable to a horde of tractor trailers arriving in NYC with a variety of foodstuffs.

I also see no problem in loosely coupling populations in inhospitable systems with indigenous tech levels and local starport ratings.


Regards,
Bill

 

[Peter Schutze]

>The real world mining camps ..... could feed themselves if they absolutely needed to do so

good luck growing food in Death Valley or the Sahara sand dune zone barring massive power etc input. Cross those 2 locations, tint it red and you've got the area around a typical Australian mining town.

> or other non-"shirtsleeve" planet could not

Closed systems eg hydroponics would be required in both cases .... if there was no trade. Trade occurs because it is more efficient than doing it yourself

>Trade may feed hundreds of thousands, trade will not feed hundreds of millions.

Sure it will. Trade follows demand (and ability to pay)

From memory it took 4kg of supplies (5.56mm, food, water, occassional clothes etc) to keep an infantryman in the field in Vietnam. Not sure how that works out in displacement. In any case most of it would be in bulk form from the trade tables in Traveller eg grains, meat as opposed to space & mass inefficient but user convenient MRE

>A megacorp freighter trader arriving at Glisten with a variety of foodstuffs is in no way comparable to a horde of tractor trailers arriving in NYC with a variety of foodstuffs.

A single freighter (size unspecified) vs a "horde" .... enough said

In any case that example is not quite right either since your "horde" is usually near the end of the distribution chain. A better analog to the megacorp freighter would be the freight trains and bulk/container ships that do most of the moving worldwide with the starports being equivalent to the main logistics nodes on earth.

 

[Peter Schutze]

Actually that highlights a problem with the traveller trade systems ...

whether it is a type A vs B vs C starport (being mainly differentiated by their shipbuilding / maintaining ability) should have little effect on trade volumes between 2 worlds

Being type A/B/C vs D/E indicates likelihood of worthwhile volumes of traffic vs X which indicates total uninterest in trade .... if there was interest in trade but not local tech the foreigners would build it up to D/E port.

 

[aramis]

Petern Newman and I ds some back of the envelope calculations and noted that shipping costs to various parts of alaska of break-bulk on pallets runs to about Cr1000/ton, using a 2007US$5 =Cr1, and takes about a week to many villages. Several of the mines import food and potable water...

 

[Whipsnade]

Petern Newman and I ds some back of the envelope calculations and noted that shipping costs to various parts of alaska of break-bulk on pallets runs to about Cr1000/ton, using a 2007US$5 =Cr1, and takes about a week to many villages. Several of the mines import food and potable water...

Aramis,

And the population of all those mining camps totals what?

As I wrote, I've no problem with the populations of outposts on non-"shirtsleeve" worlds running into the hundeds of thousands, but tens of millions or even billions? There isn't enough trade or hulls to support those numbers.

And when you factor in the "Three Generation" rule, such populations become even less plausible. Real world mining camps can breath the air for free.


Regards,
Bill

 

[rancke]

>>Trade may feed hundreds of thousands, trade will not feed hundreds of millions.

Sure it will. Trade follows demand (and ability to pay)

From memory it took 4kg of supplies (5.56mm, food, water, occassional clothes etc) to keep an infantryman in the field in Vietnam. Not sure how that works out in displacement. In any case most of it would be in bulk form from the trade tables in Traveller eg grains, meat as opposed to space & mass inefficient but user convenient MRE

It's not just a question of transport, it's also a question of ability to produce. A world being fed entirely by imports require a population of roughly one order of magnitude smaller (depends on the TL, of course) solely dedicated to food production to come up with the necessecary food. If there is no such world within jump-1, transportation cost goes up.

(Incidentally, I did some calculations while I was working on Forine in District 268, and the total population of the so-called Ag World Combine is completely indadquate to be "the breadbasket of the district".)


Hans

 

[aramis]

Overall village population of Alaska is about 150-200K off the road grid.

Almost all of those import all heating fuel, most import 50+% food, and 100% of industrial produced goods. (Essentially, Alaska is NA NI Po); those few mines and commercial fishing produce most (>60%, but exact figures are hard to nail) of the rural population income; public assistance provides the rest, paid for mostly from oil taxes... the villages are above the local environment's ability to sustain by their prior stone age tech... estimates put it 2-4x that pre-import tech level. (funny thing is, we took away native rights, but gave them just the mineral rights... and a few corps have done spectacularly; they are able to put their member villagers on to a 2nd world nation kind of lifestyle... and a few, well, they discovered neat pro-native cluses in federal contracting. The others, they are still third world...)

So those mines essentially support about 20x their own "population" with the mine revenues, at about KCr1/ton shipping taking a week.

It is an excellent model for what TL7 in many small pops will look like: high tech systems for information, probably TL9 or so; imported generators, and TL 4-5 locl manufactury using TL 7-9 shops.

 

[rancke]

It is an excellent model for what TL7 in many small pops will look like: high tech systems for information, probably TL9 or so; imported generators, and TL 4-5 locl manufactury using TL 7-9 shops.

Interesting. But if anyone has suggested that worlds with small populations can't be supported by off-world imports, I missed it. All it takes is for the work they do to produce sufficiently above the average wealth to pay for those imports, something that is easy to explain for small populations -- much harder to explain (plausibly) for big populations.



Hans

 

[Whipsnade]

Aramis

The example of Alaska(1) is a good one, but the numbers in it can only be stretched so far.

The state enjoys oil revenues that are not only a big part of to the government's budget but also provide cash payments to the residents. Then there's the biosphere. If what I saw` during my visits were any indication and McPhee's excellent book Coming Into The Country wasn't lying, the native villages routinely top off their larders with gathering, hunting, and fishing.

While a 57th Century of "oil" may be produced on Forine, there most certainly isn't a biosphere on that world. Imports can only do so much, after all we've the canonical example of Roup.

I'm all for strange and interesting worlds. I'm all for a modicum of plausibility too. Figuring a "maximum sustainable population" from a world's physical characteristics and then using tech levels, trade levels, and starport ratings to adjust that MSP number is a retcon I'd like to see.


Regards,
Bill

1 - You've kindly shared with us before and the data you provided immediately disappeared into my Black Hole of Quality!

 

[robject]

(Twisting the steering wheel, violently, back onto the highway...)

Looks like I'm back to square one. Well, not quite, but close.

Looks like mainworld generation produces homogenous sectors, but as in many things Traveller, the interpretation is up to the referee.

This is a double-edged sword. I can interpret the Marches as a frontier, but I cannot use the rules to enforce that ruling: it's a referee-decided setting detail. I can take the original statements about the Marches being frontier in different ways, and can even throw those statements out if I wanted to (I don't).

I suppose that's flexible enough for me. Part of me wants these things nailed down, but part of me just wants the door left open. I'm aware that this category of topics has been Done To Death, here and on the TML, and other places I'm sure.

 

[Whipsnade]

I can interpret the Marches as a frontier, but I cannot use the rules to enforce that ruling: it's a referee-decided setting detail.

Robject,

The Spinward Marches sector is a frontier. You needn't throw any canonical statements out, all you need to do is interpret them differently.

Traveller is full of shifting perceptions. The Zhos were mind rapers, then they weren't. The Alsan were a major race, then they weren't. The examples are all around us.

The canonical facts remain the same and the canonical statements remain the same, it's only how they're interpreted that changes.


Regards,
Bill

 

[Icosahedron]

(Jostling the steering wheel with an elbow)

I'm always interested in houserules and my ATU is easier to retcon than the OTU...

Are the Mongoose world/system generation rules any more realistic?
Has anyone found a set of sysgen rules that are more realistic (without being so realistic as to preclude life altogether, and without being unworkably complex)?

Recommendations?

 

[aramis]

Are the Mongoose world/system generation rules any more realistic?

only marginally so; they included EDG's tweaks. Same fundamental flaws, just reduced in magnitude. And they are optional rules.

Has anyone found a set of sysgen rules that are more realistic (without being so realistic as to preclude life altogether, and without being unworkably complex)?

Galactic Starfire... but it lacks the resolution of details that RPG'ing requires.

 

[Whipsnade]

Are the Mongoose world/system generation rules any more realistic?

Icosahedron.

Dr. Constantine Thomas was involved in their creation in some fashion. However, given Mongoose's poor track record, just how much they availed themselves to his expertise is the real question here.

Has anyone found a set of sysgen rules that are more realistic (without being so realistic as to preclude life altogether, and without being unworkably complex)?

Realistic without needing a computer and still producing biospheres often enough to be interesting? That's a tall order. IIRC, you can fiddle GT's basic sysgen for that, but I also remember a webcomic showing some GM using his newly purchased copy of First In to run an IISS exploration campaign and rolling up nothing but airless rocks for a month.


Regards,
Bill

 

[rancke]

Looks like mainworld generation produces homogenous sectors, but as in many things Traveller, the interpretation is up to the referee.

This is a double-edged sword. I can interpret the Marches as a frontier, but I cannot use the rules to enforce that ruling: it's a referee-decided setting detail.

The world generation rules do not distinguish between frontier and non-frontier sector, so I don't quite understand why you expected/hoped to be able to use the rules to enforce the ruling that the Marches is a frontier[*]. Nor is it a ruling; it's a setting detail mentioned in some throwaway line (I think; I don't know where that "fact" was mentioned, so I can't check the wording). Anyway, it's setting. Game Publisher-decided setting. Not explained in any way, which is where the referees come in, but theoretically susceptible to being detailed in a future canon publication.


[*] Enforce how? With whom?

I can take the original statements about the Marches being frontier in different ways, and can even throw those statements out if I wanted to (I don't).

You can do that with any canon material.

I suppose that's flexible enough for me. Part of me wants these things nailed down, but part of me just wants the door left open. I'm aware that this category of topics has been Done To Death, here and on the TML, and other places I'm sure.

Not this particular subject, I think. I think the first step towards exploring it would be to define just what a frontier is. I mean, if you walk up to a sociologist and say, "Fizzlewizz," or Snufflebotham or Boggs or whatever his name might be, "give it too me straight, based on your own examination of the raw data, is the Spinward Marches a frontier?" what raw data will Fizzlewizz or Snufflebotham or Boggs or whatever his name is examine?

Seriously, what is the difference between a frontier and a non-frontier? (What do you call a non-frontier area? Is it a dichotomy or are there more than two categories?)


Hans

 

[RandyT0001]

(Jostling the steering wheel with an elbow)

You need to hang up the cell phone and pay attention. This isn't a freeway you're driving on, we're talking about Traveller.

I'm always interested in houserules and my ATU is easier to retcon than the OTU...

Are the Mongoose world/system generation rules any more realistic?
Has anyone found a set of sysgen rules that are more realistic (without being so realistic as to preclude life altogether, and without being unworkably complex)?

Recommendations?

Have you looked at [FONT=UniversCondensed,BoldItalic]Tyge Sjöstrand World Generation pdf from Stuff Online?[/FONT]
[FONT=UniversCondensed,BoldItalic][/FONT]

 

[rancke]

The world generation rules will remain flawed until the crucial last step is added: The Vetting of the UWPs. The reason for this is that as long as you just generate a bunch of random worlds and scatter them randomly across a map, with no regard for how they affect each other now (and just as important, how they have affected each other down through history), you're going to get... substandard work.

Someone needs to go over any new set of UWPs and adapt them, not only to reality (cutting the number of really unusual worlds down to the point where they are, you know, unusual), but to the neighborhood.

Say, for example, you have several well-populated worlds and notice that a particular empty world with a class E starport lies very conveniently for a transshipment point. "That's strange," you muse, "how come no one has set up a warehousing operation and maybe a small ship repair shop there?" And the answer would be different depending on the historical period.

* For Milieu 0 the answer migh be: "That's easy. Interstellar traffic in this area is pretty recent and no one has gotten around to setting up such a facility yet. In fact, I don't even think the Scouts would have set up a spaceport beacon here; I think I'll change that starport class to X."

* For Milieu 200 the answer might be: "There was one very recently, but the colony got wiped out by the Purple Polka-dot Plague. No one's going to set up a new one before they've figured out a cure. In fact, I think I'll redzone it; the Imperium has surely slapped a quarantine on it."

* For Milieu 400 the answer might be: "That is strange. I think I'll up the starport class to C and make the population... <rolls dice> 700. No need to roll for government type, it's an outpost of <checks map> that world, which would give it a captive government."

* For Millieu 600 the answer might be: "There was one very recently, but the Zhos wiped it out in a raid. The starport was thrashed, but the Scouts put in a new starport beacon. Maybe I should put in a population, though... secondary population living away from the starport and thus surviving the attack. Whole infrastructure is ruined, of course, so government 0, but they still have their equipment, so the TL is roughly the same as the mother world -- maybe a level down."

* For Millieu 800 the answer might be: "Maybe the whole colony was revealed as a secret psionic community... NO! Bad Hans! No bisquit! You've used the secret psionic community four times already! Give it a rest! OK, so the outpost was reestablished shortly after the Second frontier War, and it's been growing for 180 years. And don't forget the original population... 3% population growth per annum... almost 100,000 inhabitants. Still a captive government... there's gonig to be trouble one of these days..."

* For Milieu 1000 the answer might be: "Another 200 years of population growth... better tone it down a bit... can't make an empty world into a high-population powerhouse... call it 5 million inhabitants. Got their independence a while back..."

* For Milieu 1100 the answer might be: "Maybe a meteor wiped out the entire population...? No, I've used that before... and there's Paya... and... I need a new idea... <tears hair>... Aaaaaaarrrgggghhhh!"


Hans