Guess-timating the Size of the IISS in the Marches

[Gadrin]

anyone have any hard numbers from the books for the approximate size of the IISS in terms of manpower (or sophont-power) in the Spinward Marches ?

I'm guessing at around 2+ million, but I'm thinking that might be a little low.

My Access database show ~50 scout bases in the marches (yeah they're not all imperial) and a quick count has ~70 xboat planets.

What numbers do you use ? (or your best guess).

 

[robject]

Those are exactly the metrics I'd start with (bases, Way Stations, and X-boat terminals).

I don't know how I'd guesstimate the personnel on those bases, though. Some may be very small and lightly staffed. Others may include a permanent marine garrison.

Way Stations of course have more requirements -- support facilities for tenders and X-boats, for example.

 

[Gadrin]

yeah, I got a reply PM from another poster who estimated according to Gurps Traveller the numbers would be lower by about a factor of 10.

I'll have to scrabble thru the CT books, as I thought CT uses different numbers (at least for how many xboats are positioned at each stop on the trail). I have no problem with the two being different though, at this point I'm trying to guess IISS manpower and a rough idea of how many mustered out scouts there are in the Marches.

 

[Gadrin]

okay, Traders and Gunboats has a nice section on the Xboat Network...

High population and
high technology star systems can be expected to have up to twelve xboats present
at one time, probably distributed evenly between arriving and departing ships.
Lower population systems will have fewer xboats. The presence of a scout base will
increase the probability of xboats being present

I knew I'd seen it somewhere.

 

[Spinward Scout]

...at this point I'm trying to guess IISS manpower and a rough idea of how many mustered out scouts there are in the Marches.

That'd be a wild guess, I'd think. Once you figure out how many mustered out are in the Marches, Detached Duty with a Scout/Courier is 1-in-6 Scouts or any Scout that served more than 3 terms.

You might be better off making it a percentage of Population - say, 1 in 1 million was a Scout.

Ugg, I had a thought once about making a simulation to figure out movement of people througout Regina subsector alone. How many would be Navy, how many Marines, etc. A nightmare without a good programmer - which I ain't.

And it's all still just guessing.

 

[Gadrin]

well, when you think of it, it seems safe to say it'd be in the hundreds depending on which system you used.

basing it off CT chargen might not really be accurate as to me, it's designed to "aid the player" for game's sake.

does saying ~100 ships are still in the scout-inventory sound too much ? I don't think so.

 

[Spinward Scout]

100 ships per system? Inbound, Outbound, or Docked - I think that'd be about right. If it's a system that has a Way Station, there would be a lot more because it's a maintenance facility. You could throw in a multiplier based on Starport type, as well.

EDIT: Any damaged or abandoned ships (i.e. ships without crew) would probably be taken to a Way Station as well.

 

[Gadrin]

No, ~100 mustered out ships in use by scouts in the entire Marches.

I don't think that's unreasonable.

 

[aramis]

Well, a lot of the staffing depends on several factors not yet considered.

Like how many XBoats are on a given link. If it's daily on the routes, then that's 18 per link. Weekly is just over 2 per link.

Likewise, Mail-run type S's. IMTU, each world off x-mail route has a 4-some. One per week each direction, and down time on the flip; each boat jumps every 14 days. An extra one per 5 worlds provides maintenance coverage, in a floating pool. That puts over 1000 in service in the Marches alone.

So for me, a million scouts, that's an absurdly high number. I can see maybe 50K to 100k, counting all functions.

 

[ChalkLine]

Another thing to consider is that Scouts work well without infrastructure.

Perhaps something else to consider is not what only is there to support them, but how big their job is in that particular area?

Scouts heavily engaged in exploration may work out of a converted Battle Rider Tender, roaming the periphery and moveable to interesting places.

 

[Spinward Scout]

No, ~100 mustered out ships in use by scouts in the entire Marches.

I don't think that's unreasonable.

I would think it's a lot higher than that. A Scout keeps the ship for maybe 20 or 30 years. If you are looking at 1 mustered out Scout per million population, then 1-in-6 has a Scout/Courier - on a 1 billion Pop world, that's almost 200 ships just from that system alone. Multiply that by 440 worlds and it's around 75,000 Scout/Couriers in the Marches. That would probably be your top end number because every world doesn't have a billion people.

And that was a sneaky way to get me to do the math for you,



Spinward Scout

 

[Gadrin]

that wasn't my intention (grabs calculator back anyhoo)

75K seem quite a bit though, when you multiply that times the cost of a ship in credits, I'm not sure the IISS would let that amount of goods go.

anyway, I was also thinking the IISS would let scouts muster out with
other ships in their inventory -- meaning they would have traditional freighters in there too, ships to haul supplies not necessarily IISS mission capable craft.

my idea is that using the "McHale's Navy Paradigm" for the scouts enterprising upper echelon brass might consult with qualified individuals near muster, approach them with the idea of using the scout freighter like a tramp, yet no payments, just upkeep and scout base service (when they're near one) and kick back a token amount each quarter, to keep the ship off the recall sheet.

the idea isn't the scouts are corrupt, just a way to take advantage of certain circumstances. the ships also serve the scouts as supply jumps that would normally be contracted out, get to these ships and that they also do "non paying" scout jobs to keep operating.

I'd probably have to make it a smaller operation, but I think it could be feasible.

 

[pendragonman]

IMTU, the scout service supplies information about systems to the commercial sector for a fee. With that fee alone the IISS would be able to fund a huge number of type-S vessels, keeping several small to medium yards busy building and "improving" the base design (sensor suites mainly). Thus, as a type-S reaches about 20-30 years of service, it is naturally put on detached duty and replaced in the regular duty line by a brand new one.

Since systems require regular survey to keep the star charts accurate, the fee is regularly being paid to refill IISS coffers. Thus, a large number on permanent detached duty is not unreasonable. Especially when this commercial fee makes the IISS independant of the tax base.

This really makes sense when you remember that the scout service has a very small beaurocracy compared to its size. Clearly a more efficient business plan than any government could come up with.

 

[Gadrin]

This really makes sense when you remember that the scout service has a very small beaurocracy compared to its size. Clearly a more efficient business plan than any government could come up with.

Yeah, the idea is also that these freighters assist the scouts in their business for the most part, almost a self-subsidy but enough lee-way to let a group of PCs do other things from time to time, and less overhead so that they're not falling into the default pile yet again.

 

[robject]

Like Spinward Scout and Aramis said, there's definitely more than 100 Type S ships in the Marches.

Aramis' assumptions seem better: There's some number of Type S ships based on proximity to the X-Boat route and overall world importance.

Assume 86 X-Boat hub worlds in the Marches.

Assume four worlds per hub get Courier service. YMMV!

Assume twenty Scouts per week are required to service those four worlds. YMMV!

Double the result just to be safe.

Grand total = a bit less than 14,000 Type S ships in the Marches, in order to somewhat sparsely cover mail service to worlds not on the X-Boat Route.


The bottom line, though, is that the actual number is whatever you need it to be.

 

[flykiller]

it's not simply the number of worlds, population and proximity also play a role. the traffic between mora and fornice would be massive, with comm ships leaving every hour or sooner. in fact there might be civilian information systems operating in parallel with the scout service if the scouts don't move fast enough. similar heavy traffic would exist between efate and louzy, glisten and aki, rhylanor and porozlo, etc. 70% of the spinward marches imperial population lives on just seven worlds, another 20% lives on twenty more - they'll have service. the remaining 300 imperial worlds might be lucky to see monthly arrivals of an S.

military considerations exist as well. there will be daily j6 service between jewell and mora, vilis and mora, mora and trin, etc.

 

[Gadrin]

so we've gone from 100s, to 1000s to tens-of-1000s.

that seems quite a jump.

I'm comfortable with a number in the hundreds, even though it could be more in other people's eyes. That's all I require.

You guys fight it out

 

[Spinward Scout]

that wasn't my intention (grabs calculator back anyhoo)

Indian giver! :devil:

75K seem quite a bit though, when you multiply that times the cost of a ship in credits, I'm not sure the IISS would let that amount of goods go.

Actually all Detached Duty Scout/Couriers are supposed to be 'surplus' ships.

Let me give you another example:

Regina subsector has a population of 60.1 billion according to The Traveller Book. MusteredOut Scouts are 1-in-a-million (of course we are!) and if Scout/Couriers are only given to the exceptional Scouts - this time, I'll say 1-in-100 (top 1%) then that comes to {grabs calculator back} ... 601 detached ships in the Regina subsector alone. That number might look a little better for you. It would be less than 10,000 ships in the whole Spinward Marches. Probably less than 5,000 from just the Imperial worlds. Distribute those how you wish: Scout/Couriers, Far Couriers, Scout Freighters, Light Surveyors, etc...

Remember, all Detached Duty Scout ships are subject to recall at any time. Plus you have to account for: misjumped ships over the years, ships that are no longer in the area (but may come back), damaged or abandoned ships, and others.

Anyway, {hands the calculator back} I hope that helped more,

Spinward Scout

 

[Gadrin]

but as another person put it, the bureaucracy and setup of the Scout Service is extremely efficient.

it seems unlikely that much surplus would be there. assuming the Service has some sort of fiscal responsibility or ethic they would liquidate whatever isn't needed (and keep some sort of reserve; x-amount in mothballs/storage, y-amount in muster craft).

I can't say you're wrong though, because it's a mind-bending concept. I'm just happy I don't need to get to the bottom of it

 

[Andrew Boulton]

Estimates of the numbers of scout/couriers in service are arbitrary, as they must work from the counts of those in service, and extrapolate to cover surplus, detached, and foreign scoutlcouriers; the count ranges from 15,000 to 30,000 in the Imperium, and around 1,000 in the Spinward Marches.

- CT SUPP9​