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Extinction Level Event?

There are several potential ones that could happen soon:

  • an undetected rock hits the 2012 earth crosser, and nudges it just enough to smack the earth.
  • eruption of the yellowstone formation
  • sudden upshift in global temperatures due to the current global warming trend (ignoring the triggers/causes...) resulting in 30m+ sea rise
  • sudden downturn in global temps resulting in an ice age due to some corrective mechanism in the environmental cycle
  • nuclear war (no speculation on who nor why... just the accepted fact that it's a possibility)
  • Multiply-drug-resistant airborne bacterial infection
  • major influenza or other lethal virus epidemic

The resulting survivors might speciate rapidly...
 
Of those, what can an off-earth colony build with the maximum techology possible (all political limits like "the environment" have been pulled) survive? And either for a period long enough so that earth is habitable again or permanently? And will that colony be large enough to be "long term stable" or will in-breeding result in "village cretin" level populations within 6-10 generations?

Massive solar flare maybe IF the colony is dug in deep enough (OTOH the same is true on earth. And we have VERY deep holes in germany)
Supernova it will likely not survive
Nuclear war maybe, depends on the tech (They might just nuke the colony as well)
 
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I think of all the ones Aramis mentioned the Yellowstone eruption is one of the scariest. I will happen one day, just no one knows when. When it does go it should make Krakatoa look like a lady finger in scope.

For traveller try a water world with earthquakes. Super large waves could trash a pylon city.

Or have a large gas giant in a system somehow ignite and create another sun in the same system.

I remember reading once that when they set off the Bikini bomb some were not sure an water burst would not break down enough water into Oxy/Hydrogen to start an self sustaining fire that would use the oceans to fuel itself.

Superbugs
Spacerocks
Sun Hiccups
Or another scary one, a Hybrid plant that does not reproduce itself crossing over into the wild and sterlizing most of the plants on a world. This one is another real day threat.
We build poisons into some of our food crops to kill bugs. What happens if this were to go one step further and get strong enough to kill larger life forms? Your agro planet could be discovered with no living beings on it. Or a shipment bound for another planet could be deadly and need to be stopped.

Lots of options out there.
 
Of those, what can an off-earth colony build with the maximum techology possible (all political limits like "the environment" have been pulled) survive? And either for a period long enough so that earth is habitable again or permanently? And will that colony be large enough to be "long term stable" or will in-breeding result in "village cretin" level populations within 6-10 generations?

Massive solar flare maybe IF the colony is dug in deep enough (OTOH the same is true on earth. And we have VERY deep holes in germany)
Supernova it will likely not survive
Nuclear war maybe, depends on the tech (They might just nuke the colony as well)

It's only going to take a few years time to survive most of these. Having the off-world repository of seed is going to make it faster and easier, and an orbital agro hab, if it can last a mere 3 years, is probably enough for almost all of these...

  • an undetected rock hits the 2012 earth crosser, and nudges it just enough to smack the earth.
  • eruption of the yellowstone formation
  • nuclear war (no speculation on who nor why... just the accepted fact that it's a possibility)
  • Multiply-drug-resistant airborne bacterial infection
  • major influenza or other lethal virus epidemic
  • flip of magnetic poles

It's a matter of reseeding as soon as the surface is cool enough.

Then again, flip of the magnetic poles is unlikely to need an off-world presence... the hype is massive, but the science doesn't show ANY credible threat from it.

And an O'Neil cylinder is best stabilized by simply putting it up, dropping a wide bit of biodiversity, including mice, flies, and spiders, and letting the stuff inside grow wild for a few years. THEN move in and tame parts of it.
 
flip of magnetic poles

I always wonder about this one. I mean, you don't have anything bad happen when you cross the Equator, but you are moving to the opposite pole in the magnetic field.

What would a pole shift really do except throw off some birds or other animals that use the poles for navigation? GPS would need to be recalibrated, but that could be a software fix.
 
The real question on the pole flipping is where does it flip to. There is no reason to believe that when the poles flip that it be a comple 180 degree flip. What if after the flip the poles become central europe and central pacific. I remember reading in the oh so distant past that the north and south poles wern't always in their present positions. So if the poles did slide down to the above mentioned positions what would happen then?
 
It's the magnetic poles that switch, not the geographical ones. And IIRC the process involves a number of years with little or no magnetic field to protect against cosmic radiation. That's where the extinction would come in.

I could be misremembering completely, though.


Hans
 
I remember reading once that when they set off the Bikini bomb some were not sure an water burst would not break down enough water into Oxy/Hydrogen to start an self sustaining fire that would use the oceans to fuel itself.

Not quite - before the original Trinity test there was some concern that it might ignite the atmosphere.
 
It's the magnetic poles that switch, not the geographical ones. And IIRC the process involves a number of years with little or no magnetic field to protect against cosmic radiation. That's where the extinction would come in.

I could be misremembering completely, though.

That's my understanding. Not a direct ELE - it happens regularly - but it could do quite a bit of damage to the biosphere, and to electronics.
 
It's the magnetic poles that switch, not the geographical ones. And IIRC the process involves a number of years with little or no magnetic field to protect against cosmic radiation. That's where the extinction would come in.

I could be misremembering completely, though.


Hans

Actually, it would involve the core of the Earth to stop spinning, and then to somehow reverse. This happening is only slightly more likely that lead spontaneously turning to gold.
The poles "flipping" is an urban myth postulated by hollywood, and run with by conspiracy theorists, so scratch it off the list
 
Actually, [magnetic pole reversal] would involve the core of the Earth to stop spinning, and then to somehow reverse. This happening is only slightly more likely that lead spontaneously turning to gold.
The poles "flipping" is an urban myth postulated by hollywood, and run with by conspiracy theorists, so scratch it off the list
You'd better tell all the scientists whose works are referenced in this article. Apparently they've all been taken in by Hollywood.


Hans
 
Evidence for the poles reversing polarity has shown up in the study of Diadoms. Comparing current ( last 1000 yrs) ones with fossilized ones is what led to the discovery of the Earth's magnetic field reversing itself. As for the geological relocating of the poles ( ice caps) this has happened. I remember reading ( admittedly if was over 40 yrs ago) that there was evidence that one of the ice caps was located over what is now North Africa and the other one located somewhere near Hawaii. Remember that the ice caps seems to be located 23 degrees off from the magnetic pole. If the pole moved slightly in any direction from where is is currently located and oriented the the ice cap would move the corespondcally 23 degrees. Either way the disruption of the Van Allen belt would be cause of much destruction.
 
I remember reading ( admittedly if was over 40 yrs ago) that there was evidence that one of the ice caps was located over what is now North Africa and the other one located somewhere near Hawaii. Remember that the ice caps seems to be located 23 degrees off from the magnetic pole.

My (admittedly lacking at times) understanding of this is that the tectonic plates shifted; thus North Africa was, millions of years ago, I'd guess, located a wee bit farther south than it is now.
But it's been a LONG time since I've looked at the subject, so I could be way off. (Sigh, yet another subject to find time for!)
 
You'd better tell all the scientists whose works are referenced in this article. Apparently they've all been taken in by Hollywood.


Hans

As an extinction level event its all Hollywood, and your article supports it, as do the acreddited sources I found.

This is from your article:

Some speculate that a greatly diminished magnetic field during a reversal period will expose the surface of the Earth to a substantial and potentially damaging increase in cosmic radiation. However, Homo erectus and their ancestors certainly survived many previous reversals, though they did not depend on computer systems that could be damaged by large coronal mass ejections.
There is no uncontested evidence that a magnetic field reversal has ever caused any biological extinctions. A possible explanation is that the solar wind may induce a sufficient magnetic field in the Earth's ionosphere to shield the surface from energetic particles even in the absence of the Earth's normal magnetic field.[28]

So...scratch it off the list. Its not extinction level
 
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As an extinction level event its all Hollywood, and your article supports it, as do the acreddited sources I found.
Ah, I see. I thought you were saying that the magnetic poles flipping would involve the core of the Earth to stop spinning, and then to somehow reverse and that this happening was only slightly more likely that lead spontaneously turning to gold, so the poles "flipping" was an urban myth postulated by hollywood, and run with by conspiracy theorists.

Whereas what you were actually saying was that the poles flipping being an extinction event would involve the core of the Earth to stop spinning and so forth, and that this was an urban myth.

I'm glad we got that sorted out.


Hans
 
Ah, I see. I thought you were saying that the magnetic poles flipping would involve the core of the Earth to stop spinning, and then to somehow reverse and that this happening was only slightly more likely that lead spontaneously turning to gold, so the poles "flipping" was an urban myth postulated by hollywood, and run with by conspiracy theorists.

Whereas what you were actually saying was that the poles flipping being an extinction event would involve the core of the Earth to stop spinning and so forth, and that this was an urban myth.

I'm glad we got that sorted out.


Hans

Communication is such a pain in the butt some days. (40+ years and still not doing it well.)
Regardless, Pole flipping is not an extinction level event.
 
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