By the factor-of-ten standards we'd be around TL13 for computers if the original vacuum tube machines are TL5. We may be more advanced in computers than an average culture at our general TL, but not by
that much.
I firmly believe that by the time we have interstellar travel computers will be "transparent" technology. Not magic, just so ubiquitous and powerful that their integration will be as seamless as paper and pencil technology today. Just a few centuries ago illiteracy reigned and paper was an expensive hand-made commodity.
Taken from
here in the middle of a discussion about computers and Traveller Tech Levels a year ago (go back a page to read from the start):
Hmmmm, the computer I sit in front of today is at least 1000 times as powerful as the 286 I bought for a huge hunk of cash about 17 years ago. It is about 50 times as powerful as the 486 I upgraded to several years later. That is fairly close to Moore's law.
The idea that a whole TL represents a mere factor of 10 increase doesn't fit, unless you're saying we have advanced 3 TL in less than 20 yr.
The idea of linking 10 desktops to equal the typical mainframe is off, too. It would probably be closer to 100, and that assumes gigabit+ connection that would not induce too many wait states in the cooperating processors.
The idea that a supercomputer (purpose built) would only be 10 or even 100 times as fast as a general desktop system is looney! Here is an August 03 announcement,
11.8 Tflop PNNL supercomputer fastest open system, of a system utilizing 2000 Itanium 64-bit processors (each more powerful than today's 32-bit desktops). That's an
unclassified machine that would be available to private businesses - the latest news on a Cray using 64-bit AMD Opterons at Sandia says 40 Tflops. Astrophysicists are hungering for similar power from a Thinking Machines system.
Tflops are already 1,000,000 times faster than the Mflop supercomputers of the pre-PC days, which would be the previous TL in Traveller.
So, if we are looking at TL advances in computers a factor of 1000 would be
foolishly conservative. I think a factor of 1,000,000 (only 30 years by Moore's law) would be reasonable, and 10^9 not wildly optimistic assuming we're still short of TL 8 maturity and a long way (more than one 20yr generation) from TL 9.
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Just a side note, for those thinking that ol' Moore has been running out of steam as systems get faster: the Tflop barrier was broken by Cray in spring of 1997, the 10T barrier in spring 2003.
10 = 2^3.32, 3.32·1.5 years = 5.98 years. Right on schedule!