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A French Arm Commonwealth by 2350?

rfmcdpei

SOC-12
Between Kafer-influicted devastation and mostly ill-thought but (broadly speaking) benign neglect from the colonizing powers back on Earth, the French Arm is in a serious mess. Disarticulated colonial economies are all starved the investemnt that they need to recover to their prior positions, the Earth-centered political structures that colonists were resigned to dealing with when things were bad have gotten jammed up, and the old cultural and national paradigms don't work nearly as well as before.

Things are starting to change in an interesting trajectory, though. In the Core, Wellon proceeded to independence slowly and constitutionally over most of the 23rd century, while Freihafen went through a near-revolutionary experience in the early 2290s. Out on the Arm, Élysée fought a war of independence in the 2280s that saw it emerge as a pan-colonial revolutionary power, and contemporary with Freihafen's emergence the Franco-German complex on Adlerhorst was torn by civil war (pro-independence German government and minority of settlers versus pro-German majority, said government also calling the willing French in as support).

By 2320, the French Arm has progressed further, with Nibelungen becoming an independent state and power and Adlerhorst reunifying in an independent state despite its threefold divisions. There's also an emergent separatist movement in Beta Canum's Deutsche Kontinent, and the Dominion of Alicia seems to be emerging Wellon-like as an independent power in its own right. The French colonies, well, with unrest on the Continent français and an ongoing insurgency on Kimanjano. (At least Nouis Voila's OK.)

I wonder if the first half of the 24th century will be marked by the slow consolidation of some kind of a French Arm community. The old Earth-based powers have proven to the Arm's peoples that they can't govern, post-colonial powers like Wellon, Friehafen, and epsecially Nibelungen have proven that independent colonies can be quite successful, and the old pan-ESA spirit of cooperation that included British, French, and German (and Azanian?) colonies could still exist. Politicians, businessmen, economists, military types and others might be interested in the idea of some kind of confederation that could create a unified power in the region, if nothing else than for reason's of stability and economies of scale. Maybe Trilon would want in on this?

The Arm's colonial powers wouldn't like this. Other colonial powers wouldn't like it--even the Manchurians might be frightened off by the scale of this. That wouldn't keep proponents of the idea from trying it.

Thoughts?
 
I think a commonwealth (unless you mean the British Commonwealth model) might take longer and would be subject to much more interference (hostility) from the home powers and even non involved parties like Manchuria.

A 'league of nations' or UN type co-ordination group open to all, especially if it automatically allowed representation for those colonies still under home rule might be logical and even encouraged.
 
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