Probability Help

[parmasson]

I have an odd situation. A new Traveller player has rolled up a new character beforehand to save time.
The system is Classic Traveller and the marine character has completed eight terms, survived them all (age 50) suffered no ill effects from aging and ended up with an STR:12, DEX: 12 and DEX: 14?! It seems a bit improbable to me.

What I want to know is how do you figure the mathematical odds that over the course of twelve ageing checks that he made all of them plus all of his survival rolls granting the +2 modifier for a high endurance.


Here is the character
Str:12 Dex:12 End:14 Int:10 Edu:6 Soc:6 Psi:? He's a Force Commander age 50
Retired. And currently has 184,000 credits.
skills
Computer-2,Ships Boat-2, Gun Combat-3, Communications-2,
Camoflague -3, Disguise-3, Diplomacy-2, Ground Craft-2,Grav Craft-2,
Heavy weapons-3, Survival-2, Battle Dress-5, Recon-2, Unarmed
Combat-3, Streetwise-2,Demolitions-3, Melee Combat-2, Blade combat-2,
Intrusion-2, OG Combat-2

 

[parmasson]

I have an odd situation. A new Traveller player has rolled up a new character beforehand to save time.
The system is Classic Traveller and the marine character has completed eight terms, survived them all (age 50) suffered no ill effects from aging and ended up with an STR:12, DEX: 12 and DEX: 14?! It seems a bit improbable to me.

What I want to know is how do you figure the mathematical odds that over the course of twelve ageing checks that he made all of them plus all of his survival rolls granting the +2 modifier for a high endurance.


Here is the character
Str:12 Dex:12 End:14 Int:10 Edu:6 Soc:6 Psi:? He's a Force Commander age 50
Retired. And currently has 184,000 credits.
skills
Computer-2,Ships Boat-2, Gun Combat-3, Communications-2,
Camoflague -3, Disguise-3, Diplomacy-2, Ground Craft-2,Grav Craft-2,
Heavy weapons-3, Survival-2, Battle Dress-5, Recon-2, Unarmed
Combat-3, Streetwise-2,Demolitions-3, Melee Combat-2, Blade combat-2,
Intrusion-2, OG Combat-2

 

[Flynn]

Why not just tell him the character is too powerful compared to the rest of the game and could he roll one up when he gets to the session? It'll only take ten-fifteen minutes and you'll get to watch the dierolls, if there's no level of player trust here.

Just a suggestion,
Flynn

 

[Flynn]

Why not just tell him the character is too powerful compared to the rest of the game and could he roll one up when he gets to the session? It'll only take ten-fifteen minutes and you'll get to watch the dierolls, if there's no level of player trust here.

Just a suggestion,
Flynn

 

[Flynn]

Better yet, ask him if he could log onto a dice server that emails its results, and email you something like 50 2d6 rolls and 50 1d6 rolls.

Then take the rolls and use them in whatever order you choose (reverse, every third one, straight through) to create the character based on the rolls he sent you.

I'd suggest either of the following dice servers:
http://www.irony.com/mailroll.html
http://www.pbm.com/dice/

It's another two credits in the pile,
Flynn

 

[Flynn]

Better yet, ask him if he could log onto a dice server that emails its results, and email you something like 50 2d6 rolls and 50 1d6 rolls.

Then take the rolls and use them in whatever order you choose (reverse, every third one, straight through) to create the character based on the rolls he sent you.

I'd suggest either of the following dice servers:
http://www.irony.com/mailroll.html
http://www.pbm.com/dice/

It's another two credits in the pile,
Flynn

 

[far-trader]

HIGHLY improbable

In fact I'd say impossible on a couple points:

Point 1: Cr184,000? Let's see, 3 rolls (maximum allowed) on the cash table (no +1 since no Gambling, so if all 6's) is Cr120,000 plus (generously) the first annual retirement payout of Cr10,000 (for 8 terms) is only Cr130,000. That leaves Cr54,000 to be made up in selling off those 7 other benefits (Low Berth tickets at Cr900 each and those Broadswords at Cr270 each). Ain't gonna add up.

Point 2: 49 skill levels? Extremely improbable if not impossible. 8 terms x 4 years is a minimum of 32 levels, plus 1 for the initial Gun Combat, that leaves 16 skill levels to account for by special assignments. Unless every term of this guys carreer had a special assignment and he was extremely lucky there's no way he got those skill levels.

So never mind the aging rolls that are also unlikely (though not that improbable, I think I've done it), or the survival rolls per assignment (same thing there). Neither of those is the belief snapper that the above are and you forgot the fact that he made 6 reenlistment rolls and a final check of 12 to get the extra term.

To be kind I wouldn't say the player was cheating, they may have had some basic misunderstandings of the generation rules.

 

[far-trader]

HIGHLY improbable

In fact I'd say impossible on a couple points:

Point 1: Cr184,000? Let's see, 3 rolls (maximum allowed) on the cash table (no +1 since no Gambling, so if all 6's) is Cr120,000 plus (generously) the first annual retirement payout of Cr10,000 (for 8 terms) is only Cr130,000. That leaves Cr54,000 to be made up in selling off those 7 other benefits (Low Berth tickets at Cr900 each and those Broadswords at Cr270 each). Ain't gonna add up.

Point 2: 49 skill levels? Extremely improbable if not impossible. 8 terms x 4 years is a minimum of 32 levels, plus 1 for the initial Gun Combat, that leaves 16 skill levels to account for by special assignments. Unless every term of this guys carreer had a special assignment and he was extremely lucky there's no way he got those skill levels.

So never mind the aging rolls that are also unlikely (though not that improbable, I think I've done it), or the survival rolls per assignment (same thing there). Neither of those is the belief snapper that the above are and you forgot the fact that he made 6 reenlistment rolls and a final check of 12 to get the extra term.

To be kind I wouldn't say the player was cheating, they may have had some basic misunderstandings of the generation rules.

 

[far-trader]

That said, Flynn makes a couple of good points. Or if the character is not unbalanced for you game and won't cause friction for the other players then you could allow the (potentially) munchkin to have his minor deity (for a while at least, Traveller IS lethal and there are NO ressurections ). Then after you have given him (presumption) a chance to experience Traveller when this character dies have him roll another under supervision and gently correct any misconceptions he has in generating a PC.

Continuing on my presumption that this combat monster is a male munchkin fantasy invention I will also venture that his first purchase request as soon as he can lay hands on another Cr16,000 is a suit of Battle Dress. I hope you will then explain that it IS NOT available to anyone outside the services. Possession of it is not allowed, and certainly not to someone of his <sniff> background (Soc 6..."Pulease Maybe, IF you were a highly decorated Baron, you MIGHT be allowed to keep a stripped BD shell for display in the manor hall...")

 

[far-trader]

That said, Flynn makes a couple of good points. Or if the character is not unbalanced for you game and won't cause friction for the other players then you could allow the (potentially) munchkin to have his minor deity (for a while at least, Traveller IS lethal and there are NO ressurections ). Then after you have given him (presumption) a chance to experience Traveller when this character dies have him roll another under supervision and gently correct any misconceptions he has in generating a PC.

Continuing on my presumption that this combat monster is a male munchkin fantasy invention I will also venture that his first purchase request as soon as he can lay hands on another Cr16,000 is a suit of Battle Dress. I hope you will then explain that it IS NOT available to anyone outside the services. Possession of it is not allowed, and certainly not to someone of his <sniff> background (Soc 6..."Pulease Maybe, IF you were a highly decorated Baron, you MIGHT be allowed to keep a stripped BD shell for display in the manor hall...")

 

[parmasson]

When I sat down and looked at the skill points that is about what I came up with
I think that it has been so long that he has forgotten how the system works. I am going to work of the assumption that it is a mistake. A stat of 12 was always the normal human maximum and yes he is accustomed to D&D sword monsters.

It may seem odd but this is the first time it has ever come up. In my old group that met for five years all characters were made AT the game table.

 

[parmasson]

When I sat down and looked at the skill points that is about what I came up with
I think that it has been so long that he has forgotten how the system works. I am going to work of the assumption that it is a mistake. A stat of 12 was always the normal human maximum and yes he is accustomed to D&D sword monsters.

It may seem odd but this is the first time it has ever come up. In my old group that met for five years all characters were made AT the game table.

 

[far-trader]

Apologies, a couple of mistakes in my post above, I said years when I meant terms and the wording of the cash rolls was unclear, edited for (I hope) more sense and clarity

 

[far-trader]

Apologies, a couple of mistakes in my post above, I said years when I meant terms and the wording of the cash rolls was unclear, edited for (I hope) more sense and clarity

 

[mike wightman]

Computer-2,Ships Boat-2, Gun Combat-3, Communications-2,
Camoflague -3, Disguise-3, Diplomacy-2, Ground Craft-2,Grav Craft-2,
Heavy weapons-3, Survival-2, Battle Dress-5, Recon-2, Unarmed
Combat-3, Streetwise-2,Demolitions-3, Melee Combat-2, Blade combat-2,
Intrusion-2, OG Combat-2

How did he get some of thse skills anyway since they don't exist in CT? Even using Mercenary

Looks more like a MT skill set to me.

Let him play it for a while, the first combat should see the end of it

Then make him generate the next character at least in the same room as you...

 

[mike wightman]

Computer-2,Ships Boat-2, Gun Combat-3, Communications-2,
Camoflague -3, Disguise-3, Diplomacy-2, Ground Craft-2,Grav Craft-2,
Heavy weapons-3, Survival-2, Battle Dress-5, Recon-2, Unarmed
Combat-3, Streetwise-2,Demolitions-3, Melee Combat-2, Blade combat-2,
Intrusion-2, OG Combat-2

How did he get some of thse skills anyway since they don't exist in CT? Even using Mercenary

Looks more like a MT skill set to me.

Let him play it for a while, the first combat should see the end of it

Then make him generate the next character at least in the same room as you...

 

[far-trader]

Sigg, that might explain a lot of it. I thought maybe some of the unfamiliar ones might be specialist schools but if it is MT advanced generation well then you're back to skills for promotions (I think) and all those brownie points and what else. Maybe even the muster tables are better

 

[far-trader]

Sigg, that might explain a lot of it. I thought maybe some of the unfamiliar ones might be specialist schools but if it is MT advanced generation well then you're back to skills for promotions (I think) and all those brownie points and what else. Maybe even the muster tables are better

 

[parmasson]

MT might be the issue. He might have a copy of MT and think it is CT based on the fact it was published in the 80s.

 

[parmasson]

MT might be the issue. He might have a copy of MT and think it is CT based on the fact it was published in the 80s.