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Likelihood of Earth-like Planet Formation - New Data

Very cool indeed.

Some time ago, I did a research project on the probability of habitable planets in the Alpha Centauri system. Using research from a number of astromers, some of whom I talked to via e-mail.

One of them (its in my notes at home) sent me some software for modelling planetary formation. Its a bit simple, but more sophisticated than "Accrete" and I ran a number of simulations. Which sounds like what they did there.

According to me (and assuming I did it right) There is a 50 % chance of a habitable planet around Alpha Centauri A, 12% chance around B, Proxima is a flare star, and tiny, and highly probable that it is sterile. The probabilities are independent of each other, and therefore additive.

It does not take into account an mass exchange between systems. (During planetary formation, a large amount of material is ejected from the stellar system. It seems probable to me that some of this ejected material would be captured by the alternate star, thereby adding to the mass of planets for that star, even if the material came from the other one.)

If anyone is interested I can dig it up.
 
Did you factor in the migration of the habitable zone for Alpha Centauri A?

I mean, just because a planet forms in the right area - or there is a chance it would be there today - would not necessarily mean it would stay habitable. Earth isn't going to be habitable to higher life forms for much longer, and it took a serious while to get there too.
 
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