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Interstellar Economics

jrients

SOC-11
Has anyone else made use of the Quick Interstellar Trade System? Does it have any flaws I should be aware of? I know nothing about economics but I have found it a good method for getting some sort of grasp on interstellar commerce.

Would anybody be interested in my trade numbers for District 268?
 
QuITS is a very interesting concept. Personally, I would think that traffic at Capitol worlds would be double or triple the rate of normal worlds, and all they get on the charts is a +1. They did a great job on it, tho.
 
its all really opinion inlcuding the links i provided...
no one would ever really know
for sure until it really happens....

a good resource is the CIA world factbook

it gives world avg for earth as it is now
then you can kinda eye ball it from there
depending on your world....

i model worlds on earth countries all the time
USA being the high end pitacairn island being
the low end...or some tiny island country being the low end...

------------------
2005 Earth GDP
55.5 trillion for the whole earth
8,800 per person monthly income avg...

military is about 2% of the whole
say 1 trillion...

how much would be taxes? hard to say
i've heard as hi as 60% in taxes for some
countries...probably an avg of 30%?...
subtract the military from that...

about 16 trillion of that is direct trade

earth is about tech level 6 in traveller
right? so you can extrapolate from there

-----------------
a tech 12 world?
100 trillion GDP
16,000 MI

roughly 30 trillion in trade

---------------
tech 3 world?
25 trillion GDP
4,400 MI

6 trillion in trade...


travel/trade?
hard to say...i think i heard somewhere
the USA has 1.6 million travellers per day
like 8000 flights per day?

how many are international? that would
give you an idea of trade/travel levels
between worlds with Starports..

there are 180 countries on the earth
so let says 2 flights per day = 360
flights per day with 200+ people = 72k
for foriegn destinations from the USA
you can estimate from that how many
would be travelling between planets....
then add in other countries...etc....etc..

on the other hand CT ships have a hard
time going over 150 passengers with
the 2 per stateroom rule which drops
the numbers down real far per flight...

HG can do bigger numbers i see so of
course if your using HG ships you can
put the bigger numbers up...

again all opinion...no real facts...
 
wandering a bit off topic...
A lot of the problem is that different sets of shipping paradigms exist based upon technological era. The "hard numbers" really only exist in reliable nature for the last 50 years or so.

If you assume paradigms similar to Earth, circa 1600 CE, long range trade is usually speculative, due to uncertainty of completion, and the ability to get local reproductions faster than foreign ORDERS. Foreign goods sell well, when available, as status items. Some stable links exist, but the actual parcels are speculative, not that the risk is high, just that the prices have stabilized and increase from source. Salt, Silk, Pepper, Cinnamon, Saffron: all rise in price as you move from the origination point.

Circa 100 CE, things are a little different. Trans-Mediteranean trade is known, and little is known about the overall flows, but a little bit of documentation suggests strongly a multiple-speculation process. A runs between AA and BB, B buys a mix of BB and AA materials, the later from A; and ships to CC, where C buys a mix of AA, BB, and CC materials, some of which are from B, and runs them to DD, where they are sold to local consumption; some are diverted at each step. Silk travels this way. Known, and traded, but 5th-50th hand. The source point is essentially unknown to even the merchants carrying it to Rome.

Perhaps the source is unknown, perhaps not cared. All that matters to the trader is knowing that he'll get a better price at the other end, and make a profit.

The various methods out there make various abstractions and assumptions; it is a contentious topic. (Heck, to be honest, it starts flame wars!) The fundamental assumptions and abstractions are problematic.

So, if the system works for you, and matches your base assumptions, enjoy!

I've not used QuITS, but I think it valid in a very generic way... Rob's not divulged the baseline data he's extrapolated from, if any.

Several factors to consider:
Several persons (including some SciFi Authors) imply that most multi-stellar polities exist not for economic, but for sociopolitical and socioreligious reasons. Trade is primarily focussed on scant luxuries, and possibly drastic surpluses or major shortfalls; day-to-day operation is almost entirely local. (Webber; Cole & Bunch; possibly also Wheedon) Note that specialized goods still get moved. Cole and Bunch's Sten series assumes a hydraulic despotism of AM2, but most of the other empires are small, and religious or sociopolitical zealot-ish regimes.

Others take the view that most worlds will not be self-sufficient, and thus must trade to survive. (GT:FT; SJ Ross; I think AD Foster's Commonwealth falls here also.)

Still others imply certain tech is localized, even though it could, in theory, be built elsewhere , but are not for various reasons; most "Staple" goods are not traded, but many desired goods are sold in ways that resist local replication, and the manufacture processes are kept tightly controlled; these goods might be essential, but they are not "Day-to-day" trading environments. (Bujold, McCaffree, possibly Cole & Bunch) These also seem to assume a much different set of tech paradigms that Traveller, in that the scale is more a bush, and one travels down various paths. (Great for literature, lousy for GM's sanity.)

Also important: How much travel is there?

SJR points out in the above a good point: As demand increases, Ship Size increases, rather than hulls, unless some choke-point exists.

Couple restricted hulls with essential trade, and you have huge numbers of small ships...

Couple unrestricted hulls with essential trade, and you get HUGE trade volumes in a few HUGE ships...

Unrestricted hulls and limited need, and you wind up with Firefly. Huge navy ships and commercial liners, loads of small tramps filling in the niche markets... Most of the worlds are habitable, and survivable without trade, and trade is for comforts, not needs.
 
"SJR points out in the above a good point: As demand increases, Ship Size increases, rather than hulls, unless some choke-point exists."

You've lost me. Ship size increases but hulls do not?
 
Never mind, Aramis. I went back and reread S. John's article. "GMs should note that ship capacity is much more likely to increase than number; this is a constant that has kept with us since the Bronze Age, and will likely carry over to space travel."
 
Re: divulging my source data. It was some guesswork with a bit of deference to Book 2 of all things. I set scale factors and decay rates to how I wanted them.

But the essential ingredient is the law of gravity, more or less: with increasing distance is diminishing attraction between two bodies, and with increased mass comes increased attraction.

It's a "close enough" heuristic for game playing.
 
Agreed, Rob. But not stating so clearly in the article is a significant flaw... in the article, not the tool covered by said article.

jrients:

The problem with modeling space travel and trade that the baseline assumptions are SOOOOOO variable

Category One: How self-dependent will worlds be. I tend towards very, Thrash, Blue and Jim (GTFT Authorial Team) tend toward barely, and TNE tends towards practically not.

Category Two: How much pre-shipping ordering is doable? the GTFT team assume nearly all shipping will be pre-order. I assume less than half, both of us looking at the same speed of travel. Jim's an economist, I'm a history type (BA w/Honors therein, working on MAEd).

Category Two-A: how fast does shipping travel?
Category Two-B: How fast do orders travel
These should link up somehow.

Historically, when travel and shipping speeds were the same, the majority of cargo was speculative, but not all, about 1/4-2/5 was orders on some wet-naval routes. Economics theory in modern uses generally is built around nearly instant communications.

Category Three: Is there a size limit on vessels? GT assumes none, CT-HG assumes 1MTd due to computer limits, CT-Bk2 is limited by the 5000Td hull limit, and someone posted some numbers about structural integrity that make me think (2000xTL/G)Td.

Category 4: are there significant perturbations of the trade flows? This is where a look at colonial america and india and the roman empire shows the fundamental assumptions about balanced trade to be broken. A significant slab of the "ordered cargoes" were not in fact trade items, but taxation and/or tribute, uncompensated at source. Shipping was compensated, but the goods were simply owed.

If there is a high perturbation, like 3% GWP owed to an off-world duke, either the duke has stuff built and shipped, or the world pays people to take the tribute owed... and that will be a large chunk of unbalanced trade.

Category Five: Trade-Gravity drop off rate. This is probably a factor of several of the above, but also is semi-independent from those, due to a host of other factors.

Conclusions and advice
1) one's assumptions about the fundamentals can make or break one's happiness with a trade system
2) when picking or building one, there is a lot to consider.
3) SWAG'S are as likely to be playable as simulations... and may or may not be just as broken.
4) No one trade system will work for everyone, even in the ostensibly same settings.

I'd immediately throw out Sid's assumptions, and GTFT's, as almost all nations on earth are very interdependent, com times are practically nil, while my understanding is most worlds in traveller are economically almost totally independent, com times are effectively long, and shipping is expensive. Thrash and I see each other's points, we just happen to think each is using the wrong models.

First to thine own self be true: Do what feels right for your TU and your Gaming Style
 
Agreed, agreed... and in fact, I really didn't think of my rule-of-thumb as being so fundamental... I couldn't describe it in such a short phrase. I don't know why.

And your set 'o baseline assumptions are good fodder to help people think through what they're looking for.
 
Originally posted by jrients:
"SJR points out in the above a good point: As demand increases, Ship Size increases, rather than hulls, unless some choke-point exists."

You've lost me. Ship size increases but hulls do not?
Sorry, forgot a bit of naval parlance might be misread.

Hulls, in naval parlance, is generally a number of craft. A 20 hull fleet might be 20 cutters, 20 CA's, or a mixed group.

Rob: Thanks... that's exactly how it is intended.

Sid: we're TL4-8, depending upon location. World TL 8.

And the use of the CIA factbook assumes that one can relate countries to worlds. I'd say "Not in the TU described in the rules mechanics of CT nor MT."
 
Originally posted by Aramis:


Rob: Thanks... that's exactly how it is intended.

Sid: we're TL4-8, depending upon location. World TL 8.

And the use of the CIA factbook assumes that one can relate countries to worlds. I'd say "Not in the TU described in the rules mechanics of CT nor MT."
--------------------

sure TL 4-8 is good enough for me...

i'd disagree on relating though just take a look
at EVERY fantasy, sci-fi book or RPG written
they all have some relation to a real country
or gov't or relgion or place on earth...

then you just extrapolate econonmics from there..

im looking at LBB 2,3
esp. trade and econmoics section i'm not seeing
anything there prohibitive to making parellels
to earth...even the TL charts suggest parallels
to earths history...if you look at the T&S page
every item there except for 2-3 can be found
on earth today...you can even relate the major(races)
species to many things/places/people on earth...

lets look at the T&S B2 chart again with 8D X 5
being max tonage of (240),quite common on earth
for container ships...and a max price of 10 mil.
for 1 item...quite similar to earth...plus
all the DM's which represent capitalism's
supply and demand ideal and its earth all over...

as for MT i can't speak for that system but
i'll bet if you look real hard you see
the same or similar methods there...

again all an opinion but quite do-able in
any RPG...
 
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