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A battle was fought for the Grant system in the 1080s [presumably during the 4th Frontier War]. It was subsequently put under interdict and used as a test area for planetary bombardment weapons. [76P:18-19]
Not canon:
I've written an adventure set on Grant for JTAS Online that expands on Grant and its recent history. It's called "Plague Planet". I've also made some notes about its early history which are, of course, not canon, but if you like, I can post them here or send them to you.
I read your scenario, it is well done but too 'big'. Such an incident did occur in WW2.
The Luftwaffe bombed the Allied ships docked in Bari, Italy in late 1943. The US's mustard gas bombs mysteriously exploded aboard the SS John Harvey though the ship was not hit, it did catch fire. The port area was inundated with gas mixed in with oily smoke. Casualties were staggering till doctors figured out what was being dealt with. The US/UK decided on total secrecy so that the German's propaganda machine would not be able to exploit the Allies mustard gas. Gas directly killed over 600 out of 1000 dead. 17 ships sunk of 30 in harbor.
Why Too Big
Conversely if the Zho's were thought to be using pathogens the False War would have grown bigger not petered out. If the Imperium had tried to conceal it, millions dead would say otherwise and have a negative impact on member planets. You would have needed a lower pop base.
Why? The Imperium isn't a democracy. I won't say public opinion is ignored completely, but it's not nearly as important. If Duke Willem decides that making peace is the best thing to do, then peace will be made. And let's not forget that the Imperial decision-makers would know the truth about just who were responsible for the deaths.
Psychohistory says otherwise. The Imperium's intent to control resulted in AI and Psi suppressions both unintended consequences imposed by the COTI.
The Nazi government was extremely responsive to public opinion. The SD canvassed public opinion up to '45. When citizens said we don't want our mentally impaired relatives killed the 38-39 policy stopped. Total war was delayed to keep consumer products flowing. The ability to be a ruthless murder machine does not mean ignore all the wishes of the citizenry. So Germans fought to the bitter end. Other such countries ended on the scrapheap of history i.e. French Monarchy or Soviet Union, note Putin constantly angles for popularity having learned from his predecessors. Other repressive regimes face such growing unpopularity they liberalize hastening their own destruction.
The 3I is not a democracy nor is it a state of evil run by Darth Vader wannabes. It is much closer to the former than the latter.
I suppose so, as long as you don't mind being guilty of a classic fallacy.
Putting that to a side, the Zhodani attack took place in 1084. It could have been one of the lasts actions prior to the armistice. Peace could have been signed before the rumors really took hold. In fact, if you ask me, that's exactly what happened.