Timerover51
SOC-14 5K
What is everyone's view of the Fermi Paradox? In 1950, Enrico Fermi, who built the first nuclear reactor at the University of Chicago, posed the question: Where is everybody?
Fermi Paradox
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mike wightman
SOC-14 10K
I'm torn between three possibilities
we are the first
they are hiding from us until we prove ourselves
dark forest
we are the first
they are hiding from us until we prove ourselves
dark forest
Spinward Flow
SOC-14 5K
Current observations point towards the Sol system being mind wobblingly unique in its features. When you can gather data on thousands of other planetary systems and almost NONE of them look like the Sol system (rather than ALL of them looking like the Sol system), random chance has a pretty massive filter on it from the start.
An additional point is that complex life sustaining terrestrial environments like Terra may be exceptionally rare (as in, bring a lot of zeroes for those percentages). It may be that most "alien" life is bound up in subsurface oceans inside icy moons (see: Europa and Enceladus) or are microscopic organisms living inside of rocks (known on Terra, likely on Mars) or have evolved into microscopic forms that can survive high in the atmosphere (suspected at Venus, possible at Jupiter and Saturn).
So the best answer at this point to the question of "Where is everybody?" comes down to a matter of "Who are you looking for?"
If you're looking for "duplicates of us" ... you're going to be searching for a LONG time.
We're lucky that our homeworld has characteristics which make it (just) possible to reach orbit using chemical rockets. Twiddle the parameters for Terra just a bit (more gravity, more atmosphere) and chemical rocketry as we know it wouldn't be energy dense enough to reach orbit the way that we do. There are plenty of "super-Earths" that have been discovered in other star systems, but even if they supported a technological civilization, there's no guarantee that they could get to orbit with chemical rocketry due to gravity and atmosphere factors.
The number of coincidences that have produced US as a species are looking ... mighty daunting ... at this point.
Best answer I can give you is that there IS plenty of "alien" life ... even in our own solar system (we just haven't found/acknowledged it yet) ... but the form that life takes is going to be almost nothing like what we have on our homeworld. The vast overwhelming supermajority of life "out there" is going to be microscopic (think bacteria) rather than complex multi-cellular organisms that we expect to see and interact with on a daily basis here at home.
Condottiere
SOC-14 5K
We could be the aliens.
casquilho
SOC-13
Or the original uplifts. LOL
Badenov
SOC-12
The other side of this is that we're new to looking for life, so we've only been sending messages spaceward for a short time. XKCD posted an amusing cartoon about who's seeing what from us, based on how far away they were. So anyone 60 light years away, which is not very far galacticly, was just seeing I Love Lucy, Gilligan's Island, and The Flintstones for the first time. So we may not be the first civ to develop EM Communications, but we might be the first closeby. And they might assume we're not worth contacting. Or they may have developed something better than EM. It's all speculation at this point.
casquilho
SOC-13
Or the alien observers among us just are not talking.
ManOfGrey
SOC-12
While I understand this question is about Fermi's real-life question, I can't help but consider that question in the context of Traveller.
From Traveller 5.10:
"The first of the human races to reach the stars was the Vilani. They launched crude sublight interstellar exploration and colonization missions starting in about 10,000 BCE."
You would think that a race that could travel to the stars, albeit without Jump drive, would produce radio waves. Therefore, after almost 12,000 years, you would think Mr. Fermi would have picked up radio waves from Vland that is "only" 968-ish light-years away.
So, in real life, there are only a couple of possibilities. In a galaxy that is 25,000 to 27,000 light-years across, the radio signals from another intelligence just quite simply haven't had the time to reach us yet. Even the fictional Valani, with a 12,000 year head-start in technology, would not have had time for their radio signals to reach Earth, if they were located on the other side of the Milky Way Galaxy to begin with.
Obviously another possibility is that Earthlings are the people with the head-start in technology. In real life, we could be the first in the galaxy to develop radio and broadcast our existence to the universe. There's just no one out there with the ability to listen... yet.
I was just listening to this interview with astrophysicist Adam Frank, who after a preamble about both the Fermi paradox and the Drake equations, and how the search for extraterrestrial life involves a list of "biosignatures" that indicate the possibility of a biosphere, discussed his work assembling a list of "techno signatures": Observable evidence of a possible technological civilization.
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From the Vault: The Search For Alien Life, with Astrophysicist Adam Frank - Stuff To Blow Your Mind | iHeart
<p>In this classic episode of Stuff to Blow Your Mind, Robert discusses big questions, fears and possibilities concerning extraterrestrial life with astrophysicist Adam Frank, author of “The Little Book of Aliens.” (originally published 11/02/2023)</p><p>See <a...
In Traveller with no Grandfather, you have no Valani, Zhodani, or Vargr. It's not sure if the Asian are a major race, and would the Droyne be a major race without Grandfather? That leaves the Hivers who would not use radio, and the Kkree who might. Not a lot of sophonts left to call.While I understand this question is about Fermi's real-life question, I can't help but consider that question in the context of Traveller.
From Traveller 5.10:
"The first of the human races to reach the stars was the Vilani. They launched crude sublight interstellar exploration and colonization missions starting in about 10,000 BCE."
You would think that a race that could travel to the stars, albeit without Jump drive, would produce radio waves. Therefore, after almost 12,000 years, you would think Mr. Fermi would have picked up radio waves from Vland that is "only" 968-ish light-years away.
So, in real life, there are only a couple of possibilities. In a galaxy that is 25,000 to 27,000 light-years across, the radio signals from another intelligence just quite simply haven't had the time to reach us yet. Even the fictional Valani, with a 12,000 year head-start in technology, would not have had time for their radio signals to reach Earth, if they were located on the other side of the Milky Way Galaxy to begin with.
Obviously another possibility is that Earthlings are the people with the head-start in technology. In real life, we could be the first in the galaxy to develop radio and broadcast our existence to the universe. There's just no one out there with the ability to listen... yet.
ManOfGrey
SOC-12
Excellent point. But in a Universe with a Grandfather, why is this true?
Again, from Traveller 5.10:
"By sheer chance, a clandestine lab in the asteroid belt discovered the secret of Jump Drive; almost immediately a modified ore freighter was sent on the first interstellar mission to Barnard’s Star. Imagine the Terrans’ surprise to find the stars already belonged to someone else!"
Why the surprise if the Valani, and company, have been out there radioing each other for the last 12,000 years?
Part of my question, in the context of Traveller, is why didn't Enrico Fermi, (or anyone else,) hear all these races talking in the OTU?
But as far as real life goes... you're right, obviously the entire Traveller universe is fiction. There is no Grandfather, Valani, Vargr, Droyne, etc., etc., ect. So your conclusion is probably spot on... there are simply "not a lot of sophonts left to call."
Condottiere
SOC-14 5K
Dark energy eats radio waves.
This is pretty much it: nobody is close enough for us to hear, or to hear us.
And there's a lot of background noise that blocks out signals that we might hear, if we were advanced enough.
I.E., space is big, and hard to traverse. Even for communications.
Fermi sounds like a very lonely person.
Joking aside, I'm of two opinions.
1. After reading lots of fantasy & science fiction, the idea that there are other beings searching for beings like 'us' to interact with is kind of awesome.
2. The more knowledge we gain of the razors edge that intelligent life in our solar system is balanced on versus any other system having the same razors edge for any kind of intelligent life to be balanced on means... if we aren't hearing their communications, then we'll just have to wait until we send our own people to explore and hopefully visit them.
Joking aside, I'm of two opinions.
1. After reading lots of fantasy & science fiction, the idea that there are other beings searching for beings like 'us' to interact with is kind of awesome.
2. The more knowledge we gain of the razors edge that intelligent life in our solar system is balanced on versus any other system having the same razors edge for any kind of intelligent life to be balanced on means... if we aren't hearing their communications, then we'll just have to wait until we send our own people to explore and hopefully visit them.
Condottiere
SOC-14 5K
We'll know when an intelligent civilization answers when they ask for more Chuck Berry.Excellent point. But in a Universe with a Grandfather, why is this true?
Again, from Traveller 5.10:
"By sheer chance, a clandestine lab in the asteroid belt discovered the secret of Jump Drive; almost immediately a modified ore freighter was sent on the first interstellar mission to Barnard’s Star. Imagine the Terrans’ surprise to find the stars already belonged to someone else!"
Why the surprise if the Valani, and company, have been out there radioing each other for the last 12,000 years?
Part of my question, in the context of Traveller, is why didn't Enrico Fermi, (or anyone else,) hear all these races talking in the OTU?
intelligent civilization
But as far as real life goes... you're right, obviously the entire Traveller universe is fiction. There is no Grandfather, Valani, Vargr, Droyne, etc., etc., ect. So your conclusion is probably spot on... there are simply "not a lot of sophonts left to call."
kilemall
SOC-14 5K
I’m partial to Cordwainer Smith’s psionic ducks looking for a good meal.We'll know when an intelligent civilization answers when they ask for more Chuck Berry.
We assume aliens will use the electromagnetic spectrum because we do, but we only started using it about 150 years ago. What will we be using in another 100 or 200 years? There may be a vibrant community discussing numerous things that we simply don't hear.
It is also possible that intelligent life inevitably destroys itself.
A coworker believed that humans will create a race of intelligent machines, after which we will fade away. I can see a universe full of machine intelligences ignoring biologic life.
It is also possible that intelligent life inevitably destroys itself.
A coworker believed that humans will create a race of intelligent machines, after which we will fade away. I can see a universe full of machine intelligences ignoring biologic life.
Krikkitone
SOC-12
An issue is we wouldn’t detect a pop 9 TL 8 world’s (like ours) radio emissions if it was more than a few parsecs away…unless they were running a SETI program sending signals out.While I understand this question is about Fermi's real-life question, I can't help but consider that question in the context of Traveller.
From Traveller 5.10:
"The first of the human races to reach the stars was the Vilani. They launched crude sublight interstellar exploration and colonization missions starting in about 10,000 BCE."
You would think that a race that could travel to the stars, albeit without Jump drive, would produce radio waves. Therefore, after almost 12,000 years, you would think Mr. Fermi would have picked up radio waves from Vland that is "only" 968-ish light-years away.
So, in real life, there are only a couple of possibilities. In a galaxy that is 25,000 to 27,000 light-years across, the radio signals from another intelligence just quite simply haven't had the time to reach us yet. Even the fictional Valani, with a 12,000 year head-start in technology, would not have had time for their radio signals to reach Earth, if they were located on the other side of the Milky Way Galaxy to begin with.
Obviously another possibility is that Earthlings are the people with the head-start in technology. In real life, we could be the first in the galaxy to develop radio and broadcast our existence to the universe. There's just no one out there with the ability to listen... yet.
The consolidation wars would have stopped any SETI programs in the Ziru Sirka able to be detected by Earth well before they would be detectable by Earth.
The use of Gravitic drives and the “magic heat sinks” attached to Traveller fusion plants means that you don’t detect a starfaring civilization unless you are within a couple parsecs of a Hi pop world
