Rules Only: Distribution of Tech Levels Across a Subsector

[creativehum]

Does anyone know if anyone ever worked up the odds of the planetary characteristics using straight up Book 3?

In particular I'm curious about the distribution of Tech Levels.

But if anyone has the odds for all the elements of the UWP that would be fantastic.

 

[egor045]

Does anyone know if anyone ever worked up the odds of the planetary characteristics using straight up Book 3?

In particular I'm curious about the distribution of Tech Levels.

But if anyone has the odds for all the elements of the UWP that would be fantastic.

I have some code that will generate LBB3 worlds. Here is a set of 1000, with characteristics broken out.

 

[ffilz]

Does anyone know if anyone ever worked up the odds of the planetary characteristics using straight up Book 3?

In particular I'm curious about the distribution of Tech Levels.

But if anyone has the odds for all the elements of the UWP that would be fantastic.

Ok, I just whipped up a program that runs through all the combinations. I used the errata that hydro = 2D - 7 + atmosphere.

Here are the quantities of each with percentages. To make the coding easier, it effectively runs through all the combinations 6 times to account for the tech level is generated with 1D:

2821109907456 - Total combinations
2821109907456 100.0000% --------------------------

 470184984576  16.6667% Starport A
 705277476864  25.0000% Starport B
 862005805056  30.5556% Starport C
 313456656384  11.1111% Starport D
 391820820480  13.8889% Starport E
  78364164096   2.7778% Starport X
2821109907456 100.0000% --------------------------

  78364164096   2.7778% Size 0
 156728328192   5.5556% Size 1
 235092492288   8.3333% Size 2
 313456656384  11.1111% Size 3
 391820820480  13.8889% Size 4
 470184984576  16.6667% Size 5
 391820820480  13.8889% Size 6
 313456656384  11.1111% Size 7
 235092492288   8.3333% Size 8
 156728328192   5.5556% Size 9
  78364164096   2.7778% Size A
2821109907456 100.0000% --------------------------

 306926309376  10.8796% Atmosphere 0
 163258675200   5.7870% Atmosphere 1
 217678233600   7.7160% Atmosphere 2
 265567444992   9.4136% Atmosphere 3
 300395962368  10.6481% Atmosphere 4
 315633438720  11.1883% Atmosphere 5
 304749527040  10.8025% Atmosphere 6
 272097792000   9.6451% Atmosphere 7
 226385362944   8.0247% Atmosphere 8
 174142586880   6.1728% Atmosphere 9
 121899810816   4.3210% Atmosphere A
  76187381760   2.7006% Atmosphere B
  43535646720   1.5432% Atmosphere C
  21767823360   0.7716% Atmosphere D
   8707129344   0.3086% Atmosphere E
   2176782336   0.0772% Atmosphere F
2821109907456 100.0000% --------------------------

 647774143488  22.9617% Hydrographic 0
 119662562304   4.2417% Hydrographic 1
 161565622272   5.7270% Hydrographic 2
 204617539584   7.2531% Hydrographic 3
 243134493696   8.6184% Hydrographic 4
 265930242048   9.4264% Hydrographic 5
 271734994944   9.6322% Hydrographic 6
 254078871552   9.0063% Hydrographic 7
 217073571840   7.6946% Hydrographic 8
 170514616320   6.0442% Hydrographic 9
 265023249408   9.3943% Hydrographic A
2821109907456 100.0000% --------------------------

  78364164096   2.7778% Population 0
 156728328192   5.5556% Population 1
 235092492288   8.3333% Population 2
 313456656384  11.1111% Population 3
 391820820480  13.8889% Population 4
 470184984576  16.6667% Population 5
 391820820480  13.8889% Population 6
 313456656384  11.1111% Population 7
 235092492288   8.3333% Population 8
 156728328192   5.5556% Population 9
  78364164096   2.7778% Population A
2821109907456 100.0000% --------------------------

 306926309376  10.8796% Government 0
 163258675200   5.7870% Government 1
 217678233600   7.7160% Government 2
 265567444992   9.4136% Government 3
 300395962368  10.6481% Government 4
 315633438720  11.1883% Government 5
 304749527040  10.8025% Government 6
 272097792000   9.6451% Government 7
 226385362944   8.0247% Government 8
 174142586880   6.1728% Government 9
 121899810816   4.3210% Government A
  76187381760   2.7006% Government B
  43535646720   1.5432% Government C
  21767823360   0.7716% Government D
   8707129344   0.3086% Government E
   2176782336   0.0772% Government F
2821109907456 100.0000% --------------------------

 418244539392  14.8255% Law Level 0 (0)
 169728556032   6.0164% Law Level 1 (1)
 205403599872   7.2809% Law Level 2 (2)
 235273890816   8.3398% Law Level 3 (3)
 255227728896   9.0471% Law Level 4 (4)
 261879008256   9.2828% Law Level 5 (5)
 253111412736   8.9721% Law Level 6 (6)
 234971559936   8.3290% Law Level 7 (7)
 206854788096   7.3324% Law Level 8 (8)
 172449533952   6.1128% Law Level 9 (9)
 135807031296   4.8140% Law Level A (10)
 100736649216   3.5708% Law Level B (11)
  70201230336   2.4884% Law Level C (12)
  45712429056   1.6204% Law Level D (13)
  27572576256   0.9774% Law Level E (14)
  15237476352   0.5401% Law Level F (15)
   7618738176   0.2701% Law Level G (16)
   3386105856   0.1200% Law Level H (17)
   1269789696   0.0450% Law Level J (18)
    362797056   0.0129% Law Level K (19)
     60466176   0.0021% Law Level L (20)
2821109907456 100.0000% --------------------------

  78642305136   2.7876% TL 0 (0)
  11987796096   0.4249% TL 1 (1)
  25917404328   0.9187% TL 2 (2)
  69138273816   2.4507% TL 3 (3)
 114834876768   4.0706% TL 4 (4)
 183049001712   6.4885% TL 5 (5)
 241691867928   8.5673% TL 6 (6)
 294022961856  10.4222% TL 7 (7)
 330188072112  11.7042% TL 8 (8)
 330423825096  11.7125% TL 9 (9)
 314883530784  11.1617% TL A (10)
 263947098744   9.3561% TL B (11)
 213211035216   7.5577% TL C (12)
 150890227920   5.3486% TL D (13)
 101012555736   3.5806% TL E (14)
  57562191648   2.0404% TL F (15)
  27405883008   0.9715% TL G (16)
  10037197944   0.3558% TL H (17)
   2034238536   0.0721% TL J (18)
    223304688   0.0079% TL K (19)
      6258384   0.0002% TL L (20)
2821109907456 100.0000% --------------------------

 386731584000  13.7085% agricultural
 331505809920  11.7509% non-agricultural
   1451188224   0.0514% industrial
2037468266496  72.2222% non-industrial
 130324764672   4.6196% rich
 552177119232  19.5730% poor
 265023249408   9.3943% water
 841326372864  29.8225% desert
 306926309376  10.8796% vacuum
  78364164096   2.7778% asteroid
  15963070464   0.5658% ice_capped

Frank

 

[Gray Lensman]

Ok, I just whipped up a program that runs through all the combinations. I used the errata that hydro = 2D - 7 + atmosphere.

Here are the quantities of each with percentages. To make the coding easier, it effectively runs through all the combinations 6 times to account for the tech level is generated with 1D:


Frank

The interesting thing to me about those numbers is that Hydro 0 is the most common by far ...

 

[aramis]

I was about to start doing a similar run in Python...

Let's count the CT dice needed:
7x 2d throws
1x 1d throw
...
and that's when I decided not to... Python's too slow for it. I could code it in C... but that's still going to tie up the computer for a while.

Thanks, FFilz, for beating me to it.

Hmm... TL 8 is the most common.

 

[ffilz]

I was about to start doing a similar run in Python...

Let's count the CT dice needed:
7x 2d throws
1x 1d throw
...
and that's when I decided not to... Python's too slow for it. I could code it in C... but that's still going to tie up the computer for a while.

Thanks, FFilz, for beating me to it.

Hmm... TL 8 is the most common.

The way I did it, the worst is iterating over 5x 2D throws plus 1x 1D throws for tech level. Everything else is at most dependent on 4 throws. My C program does everything in .38 seconds real time. Also, I pre-compute the probabilities of a 2D throw, so an iteration over one of those is only 11 iterations not 36 (well, some of the UWP variables are up to 21 because of the range of values due to dependence on other UWP elements).

Frank

 

[creativehum]

Thanks for this!

And that's kind of what I was expecting. (But I didn't know where to begin to check it myself.

And now a follow up question - and one of the reasons I asked this:

Over at the Zho Berka random Subsector generator, when I whip up, several subsectorsmin a row, out of forty [I originally wrote 20, meant 40!] or so worlds time and time again there will be about three TL C wolds and often a TL E world.

I understand probability does not determine result -- but does anyone know why these results might constantly end up with such a weight toward TL C worlds given the relatively low odds?

 

[ffilz]

Thanks for this!

And that's kind of what I was expecting. (But I didn't know where to begin to check it myself.

And now a follow up question - and one of the reasons I asked this:

Over at the Zho Berka random Subsector generator, when I whip up,several subsectorsmin a row, out of twenty or so worlds time and time again there will be about three TL C wolds and often a TL E world.

I understand probability does not determine result -- but does anyone know why these results might constantly end up with such a weight toward TL C worlds given the relatively low odds?

There's actually an average of 40 worlds per sub-sector...

So if there's about a 3.6% chance of TL E, that means there's about a 96.4% chance of not TL E. Over 40 worlds, the chance of no TL E is .964^40 which is about 23.1%, so a 77% chance seems not too far off from "often" even could be described as "most". TL C is about a 7.6% chance, so 92.4% chance of not, .924^40 is 4% of no TL C, quite reasonable to result in multiple TL C. It could be that the generator is off. I did a quick check and using the printed rule of hydro is 2D - 7 + size slightly increases the odds of TL C.

Further the chance of TL C or higher is about 19.5%
.8059^40 is 0.01%, so almost assured of at least one TL C or higher and still a significant chance of multiple TL C or higher.

 

[vegas]

Taking the odds on ffilz as gospel, on 20 worlds you will have at least 1 TL 15 system 30% of the time. They will show up a bit more often than that if they are forcing all systems above TL 15 down to 15.

Similarly, you will have exactly 1 TL 12 system 37% of the time, and 2+ >23% of the time. (I'm too lazy to do calcs above 2+ systems)

Also, a typical subsector should have 40 worlds, not 20, (50% system density on 80 hexes) and that increases the odds substantially of seeing at least a few high TL systems, but I took your word that you had low density subsectors.

EDIT: Ha, ninja'd by ffilz. What he said.

 

[creativehum]

Hey hey,

I was sorting the TL odds, got bumped by some of the totals, and added all the TL odd (to the first two decimal places).

When I added all the percentages I came up with a total of 70.28%

Why is that?

 

[creativehum]

Also, sorry about the "20 world" typo.

 

[creativehum]

Also, I'm getting a refresher on probability from these posts, so good on that.

 

[vegas]

Hey, you are right! Guess we shouldn't have taken ffilz figures as gospel.

Switching to egor045's figures (which do sum to 100%) the chance of a TL C system is higher, so you get 2+ such systems out of 20 half the time.

 

[creativehum]

Hey, you are right! Guess we shouldn't have taken ffilz figures as gospel.

Switching to egor045's figures (which do sum to 100%) the chance of a TL C system is higher, so you get 2+ such systems out of 20 half the time.

Hey. Hey... The 20 worlds thing was a typo.

 

[vegas]

Oh, in that case, what you are describing seems right to me for an average subsector. ffilz showed you the math, repeat that on egor045's figures (until Ffilz comes back with an update) and you are going to see that on so many rolls, you are going to get those high TL planets.

 

[ffilz]

Oops, several categories don't add up to 100%, working to fix...

Will go back and edit the original once I've got it fixed.

 

[ffilz]

Ok, fixed the stats and also my math above...

 

[creativehum]

Thanks for all the work on this!

 

[kilemall]

I rather think its baked into the starport probability/TL bump roll.

 

[Brandon C]

So the "most typical" UPP is C550550-9?