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In the OTU In the Official Traveller Universe. Any milieux that's been published in any edition. Not for discussion of rules except in reference to how they reflect the OTU

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  #11  
Old September 25th, 2017, 02:51 PM
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Originally Posted by timerover51 View Post
If I may ask, what general rules, and do the rules say what this massive amount of cargo consists off? What does the Imperium have that the Aslan want so badly, and what does the Aslan have that the Imperium wants so badly?
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Old September 25th, 2017, 04:33 PM
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Originally Posted by tjoneslo View Post
GURPS Traveller: Far Trader, p 10 to 18. This is the rules used to generate the trade routes. I recommend the sidebars on the same pages for more detail.

Sidebars on p20,21 has the description of the gravity trade model used as the basis for the rules.

Sidebars on p38-40 have a listing of examples of good to go with the speculative trade system
As I do not have any GURPS material of any form, using GURPS as a basis for generating trade volume is a bit useless for me.

Now, is GURPS Traveller canon along with all of the other editions?

At what point do you draw the line and say that is not possible to merge all of the various editions? Either that or put out a single volume that contains all of what is viewed as canon.
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  #13  
Old September 25th, 2017, 06:21 PM
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Originally Posted by mike wightman View Post
GT Far Trader only works if you buy into its underlying assumptions - stuff the authors made up. If you don't agree with their underlying assumptions then GT Far Trader is not much use for the OTU.

There is probably a way of generating RUs in T4/T5 that may give a more OTU model of trade volumes.

Failing that I would just make up the levels of trade you need there to be for the scenario or campaign you have in mind.
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Originally Posted by mike wightman View Post
GT Far Trader only works if you buy into its underlying assumptions - stuff the authors made up. If you don't agree with their underlying assumptions then GT Far Trader is not much use for the OTU.
Assumption 1: gravity models are valid for low-communications times
Assumption 2: gravity models remain valid for long communication time
Assumption 3: the trend for centralization is valid.
Assumption 4: The law of one price is valid.

Assumption 1 is pretty well bog standard modern economics. It holds true for almost all current market economies.

Number 2 is the problem - as almost all modern econ is based upon post-telegraphy records.

Number 3 is an outgrowth of number 1 - but it's not as functionally supported as the basics of the gravity model.

#4 is a fundamental "truth" of modern econ, but one that is provably false, with that falsehood quietly ignored because it invalidates the models, while the models using it work well enough in most cases (about 3 sigma worth). Many places, there are goods that are unavailable because the local willingness to afford them never comes to meet the suppliers' minimum needs.

The thing is, thre are two major theories about colonial presences -
A) Colonies will, as they mature, tend to follow the path of interdependence
B) Colonies will , as they mature, tend to follow the path of self-support.

In the case of A, the gravity trade model should remain viable.
In the case of B, the gravity trade model stops working at the boundary of the colony - but becomes dead wrong for interstellar.

Given the assumptions they made - which are grounded in their selected dataset - which excluded all pre-telegraph shipping (I asked Jim. He wasn't aware those old records survived... I was, because I was working with them at the National Archives.)... their conclusion is inevitable.
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  #14  
Old September 25th, 2017, 06:24 PM
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Originally Posted by timerover51 View Post
As I do not have any GURPS material of any form, using GURPS as a basis for generating trade volume is a bit useless for me.

Now, is GURPS Traveller canon along with all of the other editions?
Yes and no.

The trade route value is the sum of the two worlds, minus a distance factor, expressed as the base10 logarithm of the total annual creditflow.
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  #15  
Old September 25th, 2017, 11:08 PM
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So, the best option is to go back to the Trade Routes in the 1977 edition or expand on the guidelines from Zozer Games for the Cepheus Engine. Or a mix of the two, along with what feels right. Plus go back to the CIA World Factbook for up to Tech Level 8 or so planets.
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  #16  
Old September 26th, 2017, 09:40 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aramis View Post
The thing is, there are two major theories about colonial presences -
A) Colonies will, as they mature, tend to follow the path of interdependence
B) Colonies will , as they mature, tend to follow the path of self-support.

In the case of A, the gravity trade model should remain viable.
In the case of B, the gravity trade model stops working at the boundary of the colony - but becomes dead wrong for interstellar.

Given the assumptions they made - which are grounded in their selected dataset - which excluded all pre-telegraph shipping (I asked Jim. He wasn't aware those old records survived... I was, because I was working with them at the National Archives.)... their conclusion is inevitable.
In isolation I'm sure there is an argument to be made for either interdependence or self-support. But the entire point of the Imperium is to encourage interdependence. All of the reasons why a world might choose self-sufficiency, the Imperium provides an answer not to.

The scout service runs the x-boat and mail service to provide secure long range communications. The survey branch has, and continues to, map the contents of every system to make in-system travel as safe as possible.

The star ports on every world provide a safe haven for goods from the arbitrary changes in rules on the worlds. And provides a standard for getting goods and people onto and off of a world.

The ministry of commerce sets, and to a limited extent enforces, standards for starships, shipping, and goods. And in order to do business in Imperial space every company needs to give the Imperium a financial stake in the company, hence a financial incentive to enure the company doesn't go to far off the rails.

The imperial nobility existing in isolation from, and above, each of the member worlds. They serve as a constant diplomatic communications channel for the worlds to resolve issues. And when that fails, there is the Imperial Navy to force things back into line.

There are numerous stories from Canon where the system didn't work, but generally for the interesting stories and adventures it encourages. The Imperium has invested in the infrastructure, over thousands of years (back to the First Imperium), to encourage this. And as the successful model in charted space, it would be copied (if badly) by everyone else.
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Old September 26th, 2017, 09:59 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by timerover51 View Post
So, the best option is to go back to the Trade Routes in the 1977 edition or expand on the guidelines from Zozer Games for the Cepheus Engine. Or a mix of the two, along with what feels right. Plus go back to the CIA World Factbook for up to Tech Level 8 or so planets.
The trade routes from the 1977 edition provide the routes where trade travels, but not the volumes of trade along the routes.

Can you cite me the Zozer Game guidelines?

The other option is to add in Book7 : Merchant Prince. There is an article titled "Preparing A Commercial Traveller's Atlas" from JTAS issue 20 that explains how you map the volume of trade between worlds using the results from the MP trade system.
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Old September 26th, 2017, 06:35 PM
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Originally Posted by aramis View Post
The thing is, thre are two major theories about colonial presences -
A) Colonies will, as they mature, tend to follow the path of interdependence
B) Colonies will , as they mature, tend to follow the path of self-support.

In the case of A, the gravity trade model should remain viable.
In the case of B, the gravity trade model stops working at the boundary of the colony - but becomes dead wrong for interstellar.
This problem here is the expense of self-support. Obviously for some goods (food), it makes complete sense. Others, perhaps, not so much.

Watching the movie "Open Range", which takes place in someplace that seems like Colorado/Wyoming/Montana in the 1880s.

There's an interesting exchange towards the end. The scene takes place in the general store, where one of the characters is purchasing the best cigar and candy the store had. He ends up buying a pair of cigars from Havana, Cuba, and some swiss chocolate.

"Melts in your mouth!" "Have you tried it?" "Uh..no" "How do you know it melts in your mouth?" "We can't afford to try it ourselves."

"Don't you want to know how much it costs?" "Nope!" In the end, he bought 3 cigars, 2 chocolate bars and it cost him $5, so $1 each. Quick googling shows that a pound of beef was running about $0.15/lb.

Meanwhile, the other character was thumbing through a china dishes catalog.

So, the premise here is that this shopkeeper was able to import and stock moderately perishable products like cigars and chocolate, as well as make orders for a finished good like china dishes. How long would it take to get the china dishes? Probably, what, 6 weeks for the order to be mailed out, processed, and the china to be shipped back from (perhaps) Chicago?

How long did it take for the chocolate to get across the atlantic, and then shipped (likely by train) to the frontier, and then carted by wagon to the General Store? And, of course, not be melted in to a gooey mess in the process.

6 weeks? 2 months? Of course this is where the wholesalers really make their money. You don't send a box of candy bars from Zurich. You send large crates of them, that a wholesaler buys, and then hands out to distributors, who sells them to the General Stores. Shipping is expensive, and the bulk costs less.

But clearly this frontier town wasn't going to open up a dish factory or a chocolatier.

In Traveller, a system is basically "2 weeks" from anyplace nearby.

With ubiquitous trade, the requirement for self-reliance goes down. The classic "your grocery store has 3 days of food" argument combined with "just in time inventory". I don't need food in my pantry, I'm 2 blocks from a super market and grocery store.

This is a great video talking about this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3PWWtqfwacQ

Some self reliance is obviously important for security reasons (as witnessed recently with the hurricanes). But with well established trade, short term it's cheaper to ship it than build it. We witness this conflict between the online mega retailers and "brick and mortar" stores, where the convenience vs cost/selection battle rages on.

In So Cal, we've had these "Drive through dairies" forever. Basically, early convenience stores where you drive up, point at your products, and they hand them to you through the window.

They manage to stay in business, even though its $4 for a 1/2 gallon of milk vs $2 in the grocery store.
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Old September 27th, 2017, 01:37 AM
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Originally Posted by whartung View Post
This problem here is the expense of self-support. Obviously for some goods (food), it makes complete sense. Others, perhaps, not so much.

Watching the movie "Open Range", which takes place in someplace that seems like Colorado/Wyoming/Montana in the 1880s.

There's an interesting exchange towards the end. The scene takes place in the general store, where one of the characters is purchasing the best cigar and candy the store had. He ends up buying a pair of cigars from Havana, Cuba, and some swiss chocolate.

"Melts in your mouth!" "Have you tried it?" "Uh..no" "How do you know it melts in your mouth?" "We can't afford to try it ourselves."

"Don't you want to know how much it costs?" "Nope!" In the end, he bought 3 cigars, 2 chocolate bars and it cost him $5, so $1 each. Quick googling shows that a pound of beef was running about $0.15/lb.

Meanwhile, the other character was thumbing through a china dishes catalog.

So, the premise here is that this shopkeeper was able to import and stock moderately perishable products like cigars and chocolate, as well as make orders for a finished good like china dishes. How long would it take to get the china dishes? Probably, what, 6 weeks for the order to be mailed out, processed, and the china to be shipped back from (perhaps) Chicago?

How long did it take for the chocolate to get across the atlantic, and then shipped (likely by train) to the frontier, and then carted by wagon to the General Store? And, of course, not be melted in to a gooey mess in the process.

6 weeks? 2 months? Of course this is where the wholesalers really make their money. You don't send a box of candy bars from Zurich. You send large crates of them, that a wholesaler buys, and then hands out to distributors, who sells them to the General Stores. Shipping is expensive, and the bulk costs less.

But clearly this frontier town wasn't going to open up a dish factory or a chocolatier.

In Traveller, a system is basically "2 weeks" from anyplace nearby.

With ubiquitous trade, the requirement for self-reliance goes down. The classic "your grocery store has 3 days of food" argument combined with "just in time inventory". I don't need food in my pantry, I'm 2 blocks from a super market and grocery store.

This is a great video talking about this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3PWWtqfwacQ

Some self reliance is obviously important for security reasons (as witnessed recently with the hurricanes). But with well established trade, short term it's cheaper to ship it than build it. We witness this conflict between the online mega retailers and "brick and mortar" stores, where the convenience vs cost/selection battle rages on.

In So Cal, we've had these "Drive through dairies" forever. Basically, early convenience stores where you drive up, point at your products, and they hand them to you through the window.

They manage to stay in business, even though its $4 for a 1/2 gallon of milk vs $2 in the grocery store.
1880s Wyoming was telegraph connected, at least in the larger towns. Things could be ordered by wire, payment mailed, and the goods delivered. Demand trade flow - for which the gravity model works.

The monetary transaction time was 3-5 days from the buyer's perspective, with delivery in 4-6 weeks. The carrier didn't own the goods, and the shipper didn't either - they'd sold them already to either a warehouser or a retailer.

Or, in the case of Sears, Roebuck, & Co. and J.C. Penny, to the consumer. SR&C and JCP were a major central warehouser and speculator - but the issue with mail-order providers is that of "What happens when the item ordered is no longer available?" But SR&C and JCP did NOT ship until they had been paid. Either at the showroom (in the larger cities), or by mail.

The shipping regime is closer to that of the 17th C trade - where the shipper bought and sold the goods.

SPeculative trade is a very different beast from demand trade, at least from the standpoint of pre-rapid communication comparisons. It's MUCH riskier.

16th, 17th, and 18th C trade shows a very high rate of shipper-owned goods auctioned quayside. late 19th on, almost none of that. Difference? Transoceanic telegraphs.
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  #20  
Old October 3rd, 2017, 10:01 AM
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Thank you all for your input! I will see what I make of it for MTU.
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