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In My 2300 Universe Discussion of non-canon ideas for use in your 2300 Universe

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Old March 7th, 2008, 01:28 AM
rfmcdpei rfmcdpei is offline
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Default 2300AD/2320 What If: Bavaria stays out of Germany

I've a long-standing interest in alternate history--that's actually how I came to the setting more than a decade ago--and I wanted to address a counterfactual that has long interested me.

***

The scene is Bavaria, on 1 September 2291, in the office of the Bavarian prime minister as she talks on the videophone to provisional German president T.H. Schumpeter.

"The referendum results are in, and I just called to tell you that the electorate has decided that Bavarians don't feel like we're Germans, at least not most Germans. For three centuries, we've had our own separate history as the heart of a vast and diverse interstellar empire, while the other old successor states to Germany have been fairly small and normal northern European states. As for the colonies--well, let's not get started on those. We wish you Germans well, if you want help setting up a colony in our sphere of influence we'll be more than happy to oblige, and we'll keep the French off your back, but we're our own nation."

Over the next year, the four German states of Westphalia, Hanover, Saxony, and Brandenburg establish a Federal Republic of Germany. After three centuries, "Germany" again appears on the map of Europe. The French military junta is unhappy, but this Germany clearly cannot pose a threat to the empire and, brought down by its many economic failings, a new republic is declared in 2294. Energized by the 2291 referendum, Bavaria and all of its colonies from Hochbaden in the French Arm to Heidelsheimat in the Chinese Arm embark in a series of constitutional talks aimed at creating a new sense of Bavarian nationality for a vast federation of four hundred million people living on eight worlds.

With German reunification being limited to four small states in the Terran region of central Europe and Bavaria remaining intact, there is no costly transformation of astropolitical relations in human-dominated space, no potentially problematic Third Empire, no growth of polarizing Franco-German tensions throughout Terra and the French Arm. The French at Aurore and Nous Voila and the Bavarians at Hochbaden continue to collaborate in friendly enough fashion, even after France suddenly loses contact with its research station at Arcturus ...

***

What next? If the French and Bavarians do a better job of cooperating than the French and Germans of Canon history, they might be able to limit the scope of the initial Kafer incursions against Aurore. Conversely, a less militarized French Arm might not stand up as well.

Thoughts?

Last edited by rfmcdpei; March 7th, 2008 at 01:29 AM.. Reason: typo
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Old March 7th, 2008, 06:11 AM
mbrinkhues mbrinkhues is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rfmcdpei View Post
I've a long-standing interest in alternate history--that's actually how I came to the setting more than a decade ago--and I wanted to address a counterfactual that has long interested me.

***

The scene is Bavaria, on 1 September 2291, in the office of the Bavarian prime minister as she talks on the videophone to provisional German president T.H. Schumpeter.

"The referendum results are in, and I just called to tell you that the electorate has decided that Bavarians don't feel like we're Germans, at least not most Germans. For three centuries, we've had our own separate history as the heart of a vast and diverse interstellar empire, while the other old successor states to Germany have been fairly small and normal northern European states. As for the colonies--well, let's not get started on those. We wish you Germans well, if you want help setting up a colony in our sphere of influence we'll be more than happy to oblige, and we'll keep the French off your back, but we're our own nation."

Over the next year, the four German states of Westphalia, Hanover, Saxony, and Brandenburg establish a Federal Republic of Germany. After three centuries, "Germany" again appears on the map of Europe. The French military junta is unhappy, but this Germany clearly cannot pose a threat to the empire and, brought down by its many economic failings, a new republic is declared in 2294. Energized by the 2291 referendum, Bavaria and all of its colonies from Hochbaden in the French Arm to Heidelsheimat in the Chinese Arm embark in a series of constitutional talks aimed at creating a new sense of Bavarian nationality for a vast federation of four hundred million people living on eight worlds.

With German reunification being limited to four small states in the Terran region of central Europe and Bavaria remaining intact, there is no costly transformation of astropolitical relations in human-dominated space, no potentially problematic Third Empire, no growth of polarizing Franco-German tensions throughout Terra and the French Arm. The French at Aurore and Nous Voila and the Bavarians at Hochbaden continue to collaborate in friendly enough fashion, even after France suddenly loses contact with its research station at Arcturus ...

***

What next? If the French and Bavarians do a better job of cooperating than the French and Germans of Canon history, they might be able to limit the scope of the initial Kafer incursions against Aurore. Conversely, a less militarized French Arm might not stand up as well.

Thoughts?
Short detail: The "Thieving Hill Tribes" (19th century Brockhaus about Bavarians) are actually one of the SMALLER German states. Both Westfalia and Nether-Saxony are much larger and have more population.

As for the Rest: I doubt the new Germany will let the Bavarians exist, there is likely to much "bad blood" given the Bavarians "toady/leech" affair with France

IF they do allow them to exist basically Germany becomes uninteresting similar to Italy so replace all instances of Germany with Bavaria and be done with it.
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Old March 7th, 2008, 12:15 PM
rfmcdpei rfmcdpei is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbrinkhues View Post
Short detail: The "Thieving Hill Tribes" (19th century Brockhaus about Bavarians) are actually one of the SMALLER German states. Both Westfalia and Nether-Saxony are much larger and have more population.
2300AD-era population distributions are likely to be quite different than in the pre-Twilight era--I'm curious to know more about the "Rhine Metroplex" that is the largest city in France--and a Bavaria that's at the heart of a vast interstellar empire would need somewhat of a larger population base (and perhaps territorial? maybe this is how Swabia gets reunited?).

That said, a country with a population in the 70-80 million range clearly isn't a marginal player in Europe. Presumably, quite a few people descended from migrants of this Germany have found their way to the stars. Maybe Germany could follow them?

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As for the Rest: I doubt the new Germany will let the Bavarians exist, there is likely to much "bad blood" given the Bavarians "toady/leech" affair with France
That's not my reading of German reunification at all. Schumpeter seems to have taken great care to make sure that German reunification was conducted in an impeccably democratic and fair manner, not least because he needed to neutralize France. Things did go relatively worse in many of the colonies, but that might have been expected to happen. Germany might like Bavaria to join, but I hadn't thought it much more likely to pressure Bavaria than to pressure Austrovenia.

You could even get a German-Bavarian alliance out of this, even Bavarian support for a German interstellar program. If the Texans can cooperate with the Incans, why not?

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IF they do allow them to exist basically Germany becomes uninteresting similar to Italy so replace all instances of Germany with Bavaria and be done with it.
I wasn't going for that. I was wondering how, in the light of those changes (no war of German reunification, no Bavarian fragmentation, no French empire) the Kafer War might have happened differently.
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Old March 7th, 2008, 07:41 PM
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Without the Reunification War, the Kafer War would have gone better for the Bugs at first, but there would have been much better coordination between the French and Bavarian units. French starships did most of their fighting against the Manchurian, not the Germans, and even that was a while ago. They would still have some captains and crew with fighting experience. Colony worlds all downt eh Arm would likely have been harder hit, and quicker, but Allied forces would likely have stopped them somewhere between Beowulf and Niebelungen.
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Old March 8th, 2008, 09:39 AM
mbrinkhues mbrinkhues is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rfmcdpei View Post
2300AD-era population distributions are likely to be quite different than in the pre-Twilight era--I'm curious to know more about the "Rhine Metroplex" that is the largest city in France--and a Bavaria that's at the heart of a vast interstellar empire would need somewhat of a larger population base (and perhaps territorial? maybe this is how Swabia gets reunited?).
From T2K the French took the "Linksrheinische" (Left Rhine) side of Germany. That would be Cologne, Aachen and maybe Krefeld, M-Gladbach and Moers. The latter three are already on the Dutch-German border so them becoming French isn't sure.

That is a small part of the real live Rhein-Ruhr Metroplex (Aachen does not belong to the Region IRL Btw). The majority of it's population actually lives Rechstrheinisch and that remained german.

As for the Bavarian Population: There are currently 12 Million of them (and they WILL be invaded by the Italians loosing a few including refugees. OTOH NRW has 19 (and will loose around 2 to the French) and is not touched by ground war, Niedersachen adds another 8 but might loose some refugees depending on Timeline (IIRC in T2K 1.0 there are two germanies)

Populations can only grow on what they have as a base. And pre-spaceflight/post WWIII the Bavarians have a problem with a lack of agrarian production. The sustainabel population using 1930s technology is a lot smaller (Bavarian population was heavily reinforced post WW2, almost 1/3)

OTOH "Bavaria independend" makes no sense anyway. While on first look they seem to have a lot of industry it is all dependend on deliveries from the rest of germany. BMW won't last a day with steel from the Ruhr Valley or Rearlight-covers from Westfalia, Siemens down there is depended on Chips from the East German states, Kraus-Maffai can't finish a tank without guntubes from Düsseldorf and so on. Bavarian industry is a latecommer (Bavaria only switched from being considered agrarian to industrialised in the 1960s/70s) and only could grow due to heavy sponsoring by the big states back then (Inter-State financial transfer)

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That said, a country with a population in the 70-80 million range clearly isn't a marginal player in Europe. Presumably, quite a few people descended from migrants of this Germany have found their way to the stars. Maybe Germany could follow them?
How do you arrive at that population figure?

Quote:

That's not my reading of German reunification at all. Schumpeter seems to have taken great care to make sure that German reunification was conducted in an impeccably democratic and fair manner, not least because he needed to neutralize France. Things did go relatively worse in many of the colonies, but that might have been expected to happen. Germany might like Bavaria to join, but I hadn't thought it much more likely to pressure Bavaria than to pressure Austrovenia.
Bismark wanted to peacefully integrate the Bavarians in 1866. When that did not work Moltke got the order to "kick some Austrian Butt" and Bavaria became German. So IMHO it is not without precedence that Bavaria is "forced" to see the light.

Quote:

You could even get a German-Bavarian alliance out of this, even Bavarian support for a German interstellar program. If the Texans can cooperate with the Incans, why not?
Inca-Texan has less stress points and they are quite close to one another in status and sponsors. Bavaria-German is different in power/status. A Germany without Bavaria will likely remain a 3rd rate power with little stellar interest since for strange reasons GDW gave the colonies to the Bavarians.

Quote:

I wasn't going for that. I was wondering how, in the light of those changes (no war of German reunification, no Bavarian fragmentation, no French empire) the Kafer War might have happened differently.
Depends (among other things) on what the Bavarians did build up military wise. I.e the new Germany did build 3 BC and a couple of slow but well-armored and armed cruisers and frigates. The Bavarians on the other hand used thin-skinned French craft a lot and only managed on BB (The Bavaria)
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Last edited by mbrinkhues; March 11th, 2008 at 04:15 PM..
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Old March 9th, 2008, 01:32 AM
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Hmm.. without the Reunification War you would miss a number of factors:

a - Militerisation of the French Arm. The Franco-German rivalry wouldn't have seen the increase in forces (Joi apart if you take Halbinsel to be a Hanoverian rather than a Bavarian colony.) This mainly effects Beta Canum on the ground, Adlerhost could actually be more militerised than canon without the peacekeepers but then loses the Anglophone squadron.

b - Expansion of the DSKM with no Bismarks etc

c - No loss of Freihafen/Garten and no potential fracture of the Bavarian Space Force and certainly more continuity and resources.

d - Much less inter-ESA rivalry

So what could have happended?

- Initial incursion at Aurore still occurs. Relief expedition still goes ahead but with a potentially less powerful Bavarian contingent initially (and no Lutke). No real change.

- Bavaria commits more resources to the follow up with the Aurore Fleet.

- There would still be a response to the Kafers in the EB Finger worlds with civil defence and more military measures.

- Invasion happens. Aurore still cut off - but how does it fare with no Bismarck (although the squadron is likely to have more supporting ships) and Lutke to bolster Borodin?

- Hochbaden, Dunkelheim and Nous Voila probably still have their fates.

- Human military response still kicks in although with less build up time to move ground military units around and mobilise militias etc.

- Rochemont's Fleet probably hangs together a bit better but again no Guderian for the relief expeditions.

- No Grosshiddenhafen base? Although given it's strategic position this would probably not last long before someone realised.

- Kimanjano - no change. Its a Bavarian squadron working with the Japanese rather than a German one but even if they work better together the

- Beta Canum - although fewer ground military units on the surface and the Bavarian Continent would aid the French more I don't see any major change here to the canon outcome.

- The Reserve Fleet. Doesn't have any German capital ships anyway and the number of non cap warships wouldn't alter if they were Bavarian or German. Indeed there might be more with a Garten contingent.

So in summary I'd guess it wouldn't make a huge difference. Perhaps only to the fate of Aurore with one less capital ship and no Lutke. Vogelheim might be more vulnerable too. But the Battle of Beowulf wouldn't change really.

Dan


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Originally Posted by Colin View Post
Without the Reunification War, the Kafer War would have gone better for the Bugs at first, but there would have been much better coordination between the French and Bavarian units. French starships did most of their fighting against the Manchurian, not the Germans, and even that was a while ago. They would still have some captains and crew with fighting experience. Colony worlds all downt eh Arm would likely have been harder hit, and quicker, but Allied forces would likely have stopped them somewhere between Beowulf and Niebelungen.
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Old April 10th, 2008, 03:56 PM
BMonnery BMonnery is offline
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Bavaria, the successor state to West Germany/ FRG is not the current province of Bavaria. It's West Germany minus the Rhineland (now metropolitan France), Westphalia (a French sponsored buffer state on the other side of the Rhine, possibly only the old "Dead Zone") and Hanover (what the British occupied and set up as a pseudo-puppet state in the early 21st century). Basically, Bavaria is what the German Army had at the end of the Twilight War. It may also embrace parts of what was Austria and Northern Italy.

The two eastern states (Brandenburg and Saxony) seem to have been built around former Eastern German army units that weren't really loyal to the new Germany....

Before 2292, the terms Bavaria and Germany are interchangable...
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Old April 11th, 2008, 03:14 AM
rfmcdpei rfmcdpei is offline
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Originally Posted by BMonnery View Post
Bavaria, the successor state to West Germany/ FRG is not the current province of Bavaria. It's West Germany minus the Rhineland (now metropolitan France), Westphalia (a French sponsored buffer state on the other side of the Rhine, possibly only the old "Dead Zone") and Hanover (what the British occupied and set up as a pseudo-puppet state in the early 21st century). Basically, Bavaria is what the German Army had at the end of the Twilight War. It may also embrace parts of what was Austria and Northern Italy.
Regarding territories like Baden and Hesse and others, I'd assumed that they'd slowly been incorporated into Bavaria somewhat like Franconia.
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Old April 17th, 2008, 11:54 AM
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Originally Posted by rfmcdpei View Post
Regarding territories like Baden and Hesse and others, I'd assumed that they'd slowly been incorporated into Bavaria somewhat like Franconia.
Using T2K as a source, I have rough borders for the German states, although there is some conflict with Italy:2300 (a non-canon article in the Traveller's Digest).

I seems to me that the united Germany includes the Tirol from Austria and Italy (so Salzburg and Innsbruck are now German), Silesia from Poland and Czechslovakia, and the western parts of Hinterpommern from Poland, while losing Schleswig to Denmark (although German 2nd Corps is in a possible position to expel the Danes in the early 21st C), and the Rhineland to France and Holland. What was western Czechslovakia may also have been incorporated.

There were effectively 6 German states in the post-twilight world, which interacted with the Kingdom of Silesia and the Polish Peoples Army:

Brandenburg: Formed around the US 11th Corps and the Polish Peoples Army (the Army of the Black Madonna), embracing the states of Berlin, Brandenburg and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, plus west Hinterpommern from Poland

Saxony: Formed by whichever side wins between the combined 3rd German Corps (mainly East Germans) and 2nd Soviet Guards Army, and Julians Kingdom of Silesia.

Hanover: initially a quite small state incorporating the area between Hanover and Magdeburg, with Brunswick. Essentially what the British occupied for oil.

Westfalen: Based around Arminius's little fiefdom, either with it surviving or with the French kicking it in and setting it up as a satellite later.

FRG/ North Germany: Based around Helmut Korell's 2nd Corps, they took control of all the allied equipment dumped at Bremerhaven and became the most powerul military force remaining in Germany. However, they were loyal to the Federal govt in Nurnburg.

FRG/ South Germany: Essentially everything remaining, with Bavaria as the largest state, plus Hessen, Baden-Wurttemburg etc. This is the legitimate "Germany", although in 2k3 it has become "Bavaria".
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Old April 17th, 2008, 01:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BMonnery View Post
Using T2K as a source, I have rough borders for the German states, although there is some conflict with Italy:2300 (a non-canon article in the Traveller's Digest).

I seems to me that the united Germany includes the Tirol from Austria and Italy (so Salzburg and Innsbruck are now German), Silesia from Poland and Czechslovakia, and the western parts of Hinterpommern from Poland, while losing Schleswig to Denmark (although German 2nd Corps is in a possible position to expel the Danes in the early 21st C), and the Rhineland to France and Holland. What was western Czechslovakia may also have been incorporated.
It doesn't seem plausible to me that France, after annexing the Rhineland and giving a significant chunk of territory to the Netherlands, would let the German states descended from the main villain of three world wars annex territories to their east and south. As late as the mid-21st century, France was willing to defend the eastern European territorial order in the Russo-Ukrainian War. How much more willing would France be to do the same in the decades immediately after the Twilight War with their much weaker neighbours?
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