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  #181  
Old May 29th, 2020, 12:09 PM
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i'm told by the medics that during a hypothetical mass causality event, where the wounded significantly outnumber the treatment ability (normally talked about during a major offensive, or something like "the fuel dump just blew up"), they adjust their normal 3 tier triage scale (T3,T2,T1, which, very roughly, are "walking wounded", "needs hospitalisation" and " imminently life threatening" respectively) with a 4th category, historically called "expectant", which basically is them deciding the casualty isn't saveable, and they are put in a corner with some pain meds until they die.


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Didn't come to that, thank heavens, but it's interesting that it was under consideration as a contingency and it just reinforces mostly that the fire department isn't there to save your house, rather it's there to save everyone else's.
lives. they are there to save lives.

Property is secondary, and can be saved or sacrificed as needed, in order to save the most lives possible. Hence, the existence of the fire axe, to break property to save people.
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  #182  
Old May 29th, 2020, 01:36 PM
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When London burned (1666), the nearby locals tried to make firebreaks - but the owners of the houses being broken fought the firefighters until the King made it official. Strangely, fighting the firefighters didn't save the houses!
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  #183  
Old May 29th, 2020, 02:04 PM
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In Spain there's the set phrase idea de bombero (firefighter's idea) to refer to something quie radical or strange. It is said to come from the measures firefighters have sometimes to take to achieve their goals.

Basically, as Xerxes has told, it's a triage situation, where you have to guess how to minimeze the damages, as you cannot avoid them all.

This is also the lockout goal, and, as always in triage situations, the results can only be seen aftermath, the decision makers having to live with their choices, for good or bad...
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  #184  
Old May 29th, 2020, 04:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mike wightman View Post
That's not the reason.

The firefighters couldn't fight the fire in or around the police station because of all of the ordnance in a typical downtown police station.

Since the firefighters couldn't risk their own lives the fires just had to burn.
Gun Stores and Police Stations are both "external fight only" situations for that very reason, at least for Anch.orage FD. Same with Chemical Supply Houses. (I was an AFD Explorer in HS.)

You do your best to keep the neighboring buildings from igniting... but many districts don't have adequate separation to allow for that.

No matter the building, if there's anything exploding, you back out.
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  #185  
Old May 29th, 2020, 05:53 PM
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Opportunity cost.

You have to make judgement calls during crisis; in theory, insurance should cover lost property value.

Emergency services are community focused, in that as a collective we fund them; if crises can be controlled and contained, they can focus on individual needs.
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  #186  
Old May 29th, 2020, 07:10 PM
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Originally Posted by Condottiere View Post
Opportunity cost.

You have to make judgement calls during crisis; in theory, insurance should cover lost property value.

Emergency services are community focused, in that as a collective we fund them; if crises can be controlled and contained, they can focus on individual needs.
It depends on the store's insurance policy. Then the owners have to make the choice of do they rebuild at that location, or take the insurance settlement and build elsewhere, or simply take the insurance settlement and elect not to rebuild.

Secondly, how much of the property that is inside the building covered by insurance. If the building was looted prior to burning, or simply looted, the insurance may not cover the losses. Some of the stores were clearly looted prior to the fires.
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  #187  
Old May 30th, 2020, 04:15 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grav_Moped View Post
1918 Spanish Flu response came close. Admittedly, it wasn't nationwide, but in the places it was in place, when it was in place, it worked. When the lockdowns were lifted, it came back. See the experience of St. Louis vs. Philadelphia, and the 3rd wave in St. Louis for an example.
Yes, Philly's crowded parade was stupid. Right before the start of the normal flu season, I would add. But in 99% of American cities that didn't have a parade like Philly, they didn't suffer like Philly. Can't use Philly as a stand in for "normal business," much less normal business with rational precautions.

I found some data comparing Missouri to Kansas, and the ratio of normal flu season deaths to 1918-19 were almost indistinguishable between the states. St Louis' 772k was over 20% of the state population, so the death rate that fall can't have been drastically less than other cities in the region.

Most cities closed theaters and other large gatherings. St Louis was unusual in closing businesses. But note that up through WW1 the country was still largely rural and agricultural. The effect of shutting down city businesses would be less drastic to overall economy. People could do business in surrounding towns, or even move in with relatives outside the city, like folks used to do during plagues. That's different from shutting down entire states.
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But wow, CA was doing so amazingly well wasn't it, just a few posts back?
Yes, and still is despite the huge amount of traffic with China in the early phase of CV-19. 30% of US CV-19 deaths in NYC, another 30% within Acela corridor outside NYC, and 4% in CA with population of comparable size to the entire Acela corridor. It may be that the asymptomatic spread in CA is higher than NYC.

I read somewhere that a genetic study of the virus strains shows that most of the outbreaks in cities of US and Europe may have come through NYC. I am dubious.
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Last edited by Straybow; May 30th, 2020 at 04:42 AM.. Reason: grammar
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  #188  
Old May 30th, 2020, 04:37 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BackworldTraveller View Post
a) How do you know that they aren't actually sick if they aren't tested?
b) One person who is invisibly sick can infect how many before someone twigs?
c) How many acquaintances have to die before you stop viewing "I didn't know I would kill you" as less "oops" and more "negligent homicide"? My family already has members who have had this, and we have various people in the family wouldn't survive getting it.
d) The largest transmission issue here has the people who weren't visibly sick and moved between multiple vulnerable people.
e) 100 years of anti-biotics and miracle surgery seem to have made us forget the historical impact of illness on every day life.
a) How do YOU know if you're sick? Symptoms.
b) "Invisibly sick" isn't a thing. It is called "asymptomatic infection," which means infected but not sick. Still no solid research on asymptomatic transmission rates.
c.1) I believe my friends had CV-19 symptoms two weeks after contact with Chinese visitors in January, and my family had milder symptoms about two weeks following that; tested negative for flu and strep (I had a runny nose and wasn't tested). This was after our normal winter bugs had come and gone. We made the likely connection after the fact.
c.2) I get in the car and drive despite a far more provable relationship between miles driven and vehicular fatalities. I even take my precious wife and children with me.Why am I not paralyzed with fear?
d) The solution is to protect vulnerable people, not to shut down commerce among generally non-vulnerable people.
e) The latest CDC figures show a likely fatality rate of only 0.4%, about 4x that of flu, but still negligible death rate below age 50. As serology studies continue, more mild cases will be included and the death rate will go down.
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  #189  
Old May 30th, 2020, 05:34 AM
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"Protect vulnerable people."

Sounds easy. It's not.

Obvious case: nursing homes.
1. Staff isn't paid well enough to keep from needing to work shifts at other facilities, so they're vectors. Where does the money to fix that come from?
2. Staff has families. Including children who would be back in school, presenting massive exposure potential.

Second obvious case: Schools. Are we to forcibly retire any teacher or administrator over 50 years old for their own safety? If so, who pays for their retirement? And who pays for training their replacements?

And then you get into who's vulnerable. Elderly, asthmatic, high blood pressure or history of cardiovascular issues, diabetic, immune-compromised.... Are these going to be legal disabilities (with government support) until we get a vaccine, or are they just going to have to take their chances in the workforce?

Other situations are easier, like meat-packing plants or ag workers. Just don't report the illnesses and nobody important will notice or care. No news, no problem.
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  #190  
Old May 30th, 2020, 06:28 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mike wightman View Post
That's not the reason.

The firefighters couldn't fight the fire in or around the police station because of all of the ordnance in a typical downtown police station.

Since the firefighters couldn't risk their own lives the fires just had to burn.
That was Minneapolis. I’m across the river, in Saint Paul. We didn’t join the party until last night, two days after Minneapolis hit the fan.

The building I’m talking about housed a NAPA Auto Parts store and a very nice looking Ethiopian restaurant. At the time local FD abandoned the fight (around 1 AM), there were close to a dozen other commercial buildings on fire at the same time within a mile or so of it, one of which was an entire strip mall which, if left unchecked, could have jumped over to Allianz Field, our brand new, $200 million Major League Soccer stadium right next door.

There is a police precinct in the middle of all that confusion, but it was largely untouched. It’s also right next to the local Target, which is probably why the police were able to almost instantaneously shut down any attempts at looting it.

I went out and took a survey the next morning. At least nine of those burned buildings are total losses, including the strip mall. Several are reduced to twisted rubble. The closest was just two blocks from my house.

One irony: the entire ‘superblock’ the stadium sits on is set for complete demolition and redevelopment, courtesy of the billionaire owner of the soccer team. The only thing holding it back were all the multiyear leases held by the businesses on the site, of which the strip mall was a major portion. With the shops destroyed, the team can just bulldoze it ad librum and build all the upscale bars, shops, promenades and hotels that their site plan calls for.
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