Traveller Store CotI Features New Posts Mark Forums Read Register


Go Back TravellerRPG.com > Citizens of the Imperium > General Traveller Discussions > The Lone Star

The Lone Star Meet, greet and socialize with your fellow Travellers in the Lone Star Lounge. Random Topics.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #161  
Old May 17th, 2020, 11:49 PM
creativehum's Avatar
creativehum creativehum is offline
Citizen: SOC-14
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 1,339
Gallery : 2
creativehum Citizen++creativehum Citizen++creativehum Citizen++creativehum Citizen++
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by timerover51 View Post
For Corona Virus Deaths by Country, look here.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/coronavirus/

Take a good look at the deaths per million figure.
What I'm seeing is that Russian is lying.

Can you be any more specific?
__________________
TRAVELLER: Out of the Box. Lots of blog posts about original Traveller and playing with Traveller Books 1-3.
"The beauty of Classic Traveller Book 1, 2, and 3 is that the ref is free to make such decisions for themselves." -- Mike Wightman
"The beauty of Classic Traveller Book 1, 2, and is that the ref must make most of the decisions himself." -- flykiller
Reply With Quote
  #162  
Old May 18th, 2020, 04:10 AM
Straybow's Avatar
Straybow Straybow is offline
Citizen: SOC-14
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: not too hot, not too cold
Posts: 1,713
Gallery : 0
Straybow Citizen
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Straybow View Post
The whole idea of "flattening the curve" was to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed. But this extended shut-down instead has lead to hospital layoffs and potential bankruptcies because normal elective surgeries and even outpatient services are suspended.

It is a fool's errand to think that the virus can be eliminated. Our actions can't really change the pool of virus in the population without a vaccine.
Quote:
Originally Posted by creativehum View Post
Not quite.

Another massive part of "flattening the curve" was to give the federal government time to put in place systems for testing and tracing -- like any other functioning first world nation managed to do.
That's moving the goalposts, IMO. Sure, test when people come to the doctor or hospital as part of a treatment plan. Then the doc can say, "Don't worry, you have the flu which has only killed 40k people instead of 90k."

Quote:
Originally Posted by creativehum View Post
This is clearly not true. Testing and tracing are actions that can change the pool of virus in the population before a vaccine is found.
The idea that testing will solve the problem is also a fool's errand. If you tested me yesterday, it means almost nothing today.

Can you tell me why Belgium has almost double the deaths per million of their neighbors in France, more than double Netherlands, four times that of Luxembourg, and over EIGHT TIMES the deaths per million of neighboring Germany? Nope, nobody can. They share borders, had free movement over those borders up until quarantines were ordered, have similar geography (at least for nearby regions of France and Germany) and urban density. They had similar quarantine rules, too. Testing isn't going to tell you.

Can testing explain why Sweden, famous for flouting the expert advise and restricting only large gatherings (was it 500?), has deaths per million lower than France, UK, Italy, Spain (which may have had the strictest quarantine measures of all), and Belgium and only 30% higher than USA?

California probably had far more passengers from China in December and January than any of those countries, and yet California has only 81 deaths per million, lower than every country in western Europe except Austria.
__________________
(\__/). Save a bunny, eat more Smurf! (Brought to you by the National Smurfmeat Council)
(='.'=) Smurf, the original blue meat! © 1999, ® and ™ (except that "Smurf" bit)
(")_(") tc+ ru- c+ au+ ls- pi he++ eti=0 hs++ pc++ !zuchai(=dilithium)
Han shot first, and per parsec pricing is RAW!
Reply With Quote
  #163  
Old May 18th, 2020, 05:35 AM
Grav_Moped Grav_Moped is offline
Citizen: SOC-12
 
Join Date: Oct 2016
Posts: 493
Gallery : 0
Grav_Moped Citizen
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Straybow View Post
That's moving the goalposts, IMO. Sure, test when people come to the doctor or hospital as part of a treatment plan. Then the doc can say, "Don't worry, you have the flu which has only killed 40k people instead of 90k."

The idea that testing will solve the problem is also a fool's errand. If you tested me yesterday, it means almost nothing today.
Testing isn't about you (mostly).

Testing you yesterday might not even have meant anything yesterday, either. Unless you've been literally isolated for a few days beforehand, you might be infected but not yet have a detectable virus load. Or you might have gotten a false negative -- it happens.

What testing does mean is that if you pop positive, you need to be quarantined and your contacts traced to find others who need to be quarantined. Repeat until you find all the positives or hit dead ends. Keep at it long enough and you might be able to control things -- but that takes testing and manpower and money and... well, maybe that's not an option. [IMPLICIT POLITICAL CONTENT REDACTED]
Quote:

Can you tell me why Belgium has almost double the deaths per million of their neighbors in France, more than double Netherlands, four times that of Luxembourg, and over EIGHT TIMES the deaths per million of neighboring Germany? Nope, nobody can. They share borders, had free movement over those borders up until quarantines were ordered, have similar geography (at least for nearby regions of France and Germany) and urban density. They had similar quarantine rules, too. Testing isn't going to tell you.
Sure. They count any death that even remotely could have been from SARS-CoV-2 as a CoVID-19 death. Other places are less strict about it (die with all the symptoms, but never got tested? Not the 'rona, sorry. Heart attack or stroke from CoVID-19 aftereffects? Not 'rona either. Not a state resident? Not our business, maybe your home state will report it eventually. And so on...).
Quote:

Can testing explain why Sweden, famous for flouting the expert advise and restricting only large gatherings (was it 500?), has deaths per million lower than France, UK, Italy, Spain (which may have had the strictest quarantine measures of all), and Belgium and only 30% higher than USA?
Italy got slammed from Chinese tourists before they knew what hit them. The UK was actively trying to expose everyone (herd immunity) until they realized how many corpses that meant. I already discussed Belgium.
Quote:

California probably had far more passengers from China in December and January than any of those countries, and yet California has only 81 deaths per million, lower than every country in western Europe except Austria.
The entry point from China was mostly San Francisco, which locked down the entire Bay Area hard and fast once they knew what was happening. They know from pandemics (AIDS...). Those most likely to have been exposed were also those with the resources to self-isolate by working from home and shopping online. And there's a LOT of California that has nothing to do with SF -- or Los Angeles (particularly the high-end areas and around LAX) for that matter -- and wouldn't be in contact with China travelers or those they encountered.

Last edited by Grav_Moped; May 18th, 2020 at 05:57 AM..
Reply With Quote
  #164  
Old May 18th, 2020, 06:48 AM
Condottiere Condottiere is offline
Citizen: SOC-14
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 3,215
Gallery : 0
Condottiere Citizen++Condottiere Citizen++Condottiere Citizen++Condottiere Citizen++
Default

I hear, however that's interpreted, that human malware is spreading faster in American rural communities with "aging populations" than urban ones.

Assuming local statistics are accurate, new detected infections are counted in the low double digits, specifically ten more than yesterday, though I suspect that could be due to the weekend, but the steady decline has been the overall trend.

June eighth is supposed normalization; end August, gatherings for more than a thousand people.

Checking on flight availability, prices look okay, bring your own mask, protocol for lining up on the toilet run, and being provided with a snack bag for short haul flights.
Reply With Quote
  #165  
Old May 19th, 2020, 11:53 PM
flykiller's Avatar
flykiller flykiller is offline
Citizen: SOC-14
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: desert
Posts: 6,824
Gallery : 112
flykiller Citizen++flykiller Citizen++flykiller Citizen++flykiller Citizen++
Default

where I work we send dozens of people all over the united states and back every single week. we're also a tourist stop point, lots of europeans and japanese and chinese passing through. if there's a disease going around anywhere, we get it.

we have five cases.
Reply With Quote
  #166  
Old May 22nd, 2020, 06:50 PM
Straybow's Avatar
Straybow Straybow is offline
Citizen: SOC-14
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: not too hot, not too cold
Posts: 1,713
Gallery : 0
Straybow Citizen
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Grav_Moped View Post
What testing does mean is that if you pop positive, you need to be quarantined and your contacts traced to find others who need to be quarantined. Repeat until you find all the positives or hit dead ends. Keep at it long enough and you might be able to control things -- but that takes testing and manpower and money and... well, maybe that's not an option.
No, nobody needs to be tested unless they're actually sick. Even if you can trace contacts it may not show up if you test too early in incubation. Maybe 14 days after contact, when incubation is almost guaranteed complete, a test might be useful. It's pointless to test the general population, a complete waste of time and resources, or worse yet, a tool for manipulation.

Quote:
Sure. They count any death that even remotely could have been from SARS-CoV-2 as a CoVID-19 death. Other places are less strict about it (die with all the symptoms, but never got tested? Not the 'rona, sorry. Heart attack or stroke from CoVID-19 aftereffects? Not 'rona either. Not a state resident? Not our business, maybe your home state will report it eventually. And so on...). Italy got slammed from Chinese tourists before they knew what hit them. The UK was actively trying to expose everyone (herd immunity) until they realized how many corpses that meant. I already discussed Belgium.
In other words, reporting is not reliable and everyone keeps reporting as though. No, UK dropped their herd immunity approach because France insisted they would close Calais to Brits if UK didn't adopt tighter restrictions.

Quote:
The entry point from China was mostly San Francisco, which locked down the entire Bay Area hard and fast once they knew what was happening. They know from pandemics (AIDS...). Those most likely to have been exposed were also those with the resources to self-isolate by working from home and shopping online. And there's a LOT of California that has nothing to do with SF -- or Los Angeles (particularly the high-end areas and around LAX) for that matter -- and wouldn't be in contact with China travelers or those they encountered.
Haha, no. AIDS was never a pandemic. It does not spread by casual contact, nor were any restrictions placed on the general public. This shelter-in-place thing is entirely new. It has never been done even for the plague.

While SF Bay area had about 5000 arrivals/day from China, LA had about 8000/day. Yet LA has significantly more cases/deaths per 100k. I don't think reporting for LA is that different from reporting in other counties.
__________________
(\__/). Save a bunny, eat more Smurf! (Brought to you by the National Smurfmeat Council)
(='.'=) Smurf, the original blue meat! © 1999, ® and ™ (except that "Smurf" bit)
(")_(") tc+ ru- c+ au+ ls- pi he++ eti=0 hs++ pc++ !zuchai(=dilithium)
Han shot first, and per parsec pricing is RAW!
Reply With Quote
  #167  
Old May 22nd, 2020, 11:16 PM
Grav_Moped Grav_Moped is offline
Citizen: SOC-12
 
Join Date: Oct 2016
Posts: 493
Gallery : 0
Grav_Moped Citizen
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Straybow View Post
No, nobody needs to be tested unless they're actually sick. Even if you can trace contacts it may not show up if you test too early in incubation. Maybe 14 days after contact, when incubation is almost guaranteed complete, a test might be useful. It's pointless to test the general population, a complete waste of time and resources, or worse yet, a tool for manipulation.
Test, retest after 4 days. Should catch most cases -- some immediately, some after incubation. By 14 days, the cases that are symptomatic will have manifested symptoms...
Quote:

In other words, reporting is not reliable and everyone keeps reporting as though.
Which means everyone else is undercounting (we already know this from excess deaths year-over-year). Doesn't help your case.
Quote:
No, UK dropped their herd immunity approach because France insisted they would close Calais to Brits if UK didn't adopt tighter restrictions.
That too.
Quote:

Haha, no. AIDS was never a pandemic. It does not spread by casual contact, nor were any restrictions placed on the general public.
Granted. But it was a remarkably persistent (still is, but treatable) epidemic, and it's a close-to-home demonstration of what happens when you ignore rapidly spreading disease.
Quote:
This shelter-in-place thing is entirely new. It has never been done even for the plague.
1918 Spanish Flu response came close. Admittedly, it wasn't nationwide, but in the places it was in place, when it was in place, it worked. When the lockdowns were lifted, it came back. See the experience of St. Louis vs. Philadelphia, and the 3rd wave in St. Louis for an example.
Quote:

While SF Bay area had about 5000 arrivals/day from China, LA had about 8000/day. Yet LA has significantly more cases/deaths per 100k. I don't think reporting for LA is that different from reporting in other counties.
But wow, CA was doing so amazingly well wasn't it, just a few posts back?
Reply With Quote
  #168  
Old May 23rd, 2020, 11:37 AM
BackworldTraveller's Avatar
BackworldTraveller BackworldTraveller is offline
Citizen: SOC-9
 
Join Date: May 2020
Location: Epping
Posts: 57
Gallery : 0
BackworldTraveller Citizen
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Straybow View Post
No, nobody needs to be tested unless they're actually sick.
a) How do you know that they aren't actually sick if they aren't tested?
b) One person who is invisibly sick can infect how many before someone twigs?
c) How many acquaintances have to die before you stop viewing "I didn't know I would kill you" as less "oops" and more "negligent homicide"? My family already has members who have had this, and we have various people in the family wouldn't survive getting it.
d) The largest transmission issue here has the people who weren't visibly sick and moved between multiple vulnerable people.
e) 100 years of anti-biotics and miracle surgery seem to have made us forget the historical impact of illness on every day life.
Reply With Quote
  #169  
Old May 23rd, 2020, 10:22 PM
Drakon Drakon is offline
Citizen: SOC-14
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Sunnyvale CA
Posts: 1,227
Gallery : 24
Visit Drakon's Blog
Drakon Citizen
Default

Vargr face masks would be practically a muzzle
__________________
Baron Lemish,Sir Harry of Slath, Tsamis, and Echiste K.S.R, KD, ------------Forn 0535 Slath D843210-7
Drakonian Aerospace LIC.-------------------------------------------------------Solo 1814 Tsamis A547986-E
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Spin 2313 Echiste C53A313-A
MCG Final Victory @ Emerald----------------------------------------------------Corr 1806 Lemish A79568C-C
Reply With Quote
  #170  
Old May 24th, 2020, 02:08 AM
aramis's Avatar
aramis aramis is offline
Administrator
 
Join Date: May 2001
Location: Anchorage, AK, USofA
Posts: 29,250
Gallery : 53
Visit aramis's Blog
aramis has disabled reputation
Send a message via ICQ to aramis Send a message via AIM to aramis Send a message via Yahoo to aramis
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Drakon View Post
Vargr face masks would be practically a muzzle
Or a full bubble helmet
__________________
~ Aramis
aramis.hostman.us /trav
Smith & Wesson: The Original Point and Click interface!

Archduke of Sylea (CORE 2118)
Duke of the Third Imperium (SPIN 0534)
Count Terra (SOLO 1827)
Count Gorod (REFT 1302)
Count of the Third Imperium (SPIN 2232)
Viscount of Adabicci (SPIN 1824)
Marquis of the Solomani Rim (SOLO 0606)
Marquis of the Third Imperium (SPIN 2410)
Baron of the Third Imperium (SPIN 2231)
Knight of the Iridium Throne (CORE 1434)
Sir William Hostman (OLDE 0512)
Sir William Hostman (DAGU 0622)
Knight of Deneb (REFT 2239)
Knight of Deneb (Spin 2532)
SEH w/Diamonds for Extreme Heroism - Battle of Boughene
MCG - Battle of Boughene
TAS: William Hostman (CORR 2506)
TAS: Bearer (DAIB 1326)
IMTU ct+ tm++ tne tg-- tt+ tmo+ t4- t20+ to ru+ ge+ 3i+ c+ jt au ls pi+ ta he+ st+
Wil Hostman 0602 C539857-9 S A724
OTU: 95% 3i an+ au+ br- cpu± dt± f+ fs++ ge± ih- inf± j± jf+ jm+ jt+ ls- n= nc+ pi+ pp-- tp+ tr+ tv- vi-- xb+-
Unless there is bold red text, presume my posts to be my personal material only.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
General Dealing with problem players Blue Ghost Referee's Lounge 30 April 16th, 2019 10:25 AM
Wiki update: Lockdown extension installed - Referee namespace restricted tjoneslo Wiki Discussion 1 August 6th, 2013 10:01 AM

This website and its contents are copyright ©2010- Far Future Enterprises. All rights reserved. Traveller is a registered trademark of Far Future Enterprises .
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright (c) 2010-2013, Far Future Enterprises. All Rights Reserved.