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  #1  
Old April 7th, 2006, 11:41 PM
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I ran across this quote in an earlier thread and it got me to thinking.

Quote:
Quoted by robject,

Marc Miller ruminates on Industrial worlds:

Industrialized by itself just means manufacturing. For trade, it means a lot. For riches or quality of life, I would prefer a high tech rich agricultural world.

Another thing to look at is population concentrations. Most of the population of the Imperium is concentrated in probably 30-40 worlds. There must be a whole flock of pop-3 worlds which account for almost nothing.
http://www.travellerrpg.com/cgi-bin/...;f=62;t=000076

So most of the Imperium is empty? I can accept that but how do we account for it?

Given a world that has not seen too much war and a nice medium growth rate of say .8%-1% then we would expect to see most worlds with at least a million or two inhabitants after 500+ or so years. Garden worlds with tech levels above 8 or 9 could have even higher rates if local culture permitted. The implications for trade and commerce are huge. With most systems virtually empty there would be no reason to go there. No selection of goods to speak of and nobody to sell to.

Or am I just misinterpreting an off the cuff remark? I don’t have AOTI and based on reviews did not plan on picking it up.
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  #2  
Old April 8th, 2006, 11:13 AM
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Empty I guess in numbers, but consider how many good or bad people in history came out of nowhere.
What I would like defined is what itisi like to actually live in these places. Envrionmentally, Socailly, etc.

There preconceptions involved in the Trade Codes, and these invoke preset notions based on our Earth or Media experience. There should be limitless variations on things. Not all Industrial world would be Geidi Prime ot LA from Blade Runner. They could be massive arcologies with lots of plants, surrounded by factories. Literally anything. I for one would love to see a TL F agricultural world in operation, just to see how it would work.
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Old April 9th, 2006, 02:41 AM
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The idea that more than 90% of the population of the Imperium lives on a small handful of worlds has been recognized for a long time. The shape of the Rebellion was influenced by the distribution of those worlds, after all.

What most people *can't* wrap their heads around is what the resulting trade looks like. For many the problem is that the only exposure to macro-economics they've had is the trade rules in one edition or other of Traveller, very few of which actually cover the scale of commerce required to get the big picture. For others, the problem is that they go straight to statistical analyses and expect the Imperium to fall into line. Sorry, that's not how statistics work, and the Imperium is NOT an "ideal solution" in any case, or at least not a single solution.

And so the debate continues...
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Old April 9th, 2006, 04:18 AM
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The vast bulk of the people living on Hi-pop worlds also means people's perspectives on what's typical for the Imperium is a bit skewed.

Going with GENII for the moment, the median tech level (by population) is D (close to E), the median law level is 9, the median government type is 9.

Counting by worlds, the median TL is B, the median law level is 5, the median government type is 5.

There are actually 242 pop-A worlds, holding 75% of the population of the Imperium.
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Old April 9th, 2006, 02:18 PM
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242? That is a bit more.

In a way it helps me understand how after so long small traders continue to exist. I would think that after a 100 years that margins would have dropped and consolidation within the shipping industry would have done away with the small time carrier in favor of big megacorp sized carriers. If there just isn’t enough reason for regular service to most of the Imperium then it makes the existence of the small carriers more plausible.

When it comes to population growth/shrinkage I wonder what the human population pyramid looks like. We could see a strong growth Imperium-wide until say 500-600 and then a falling off of growth. A period of stagnation around the time of the civil wars and then stagnation from say 700-1000 and a gradual “die off” among the less developed worlds. My guess is that 95% of the wealth is concentrated on those 200 worlds and on those worlds that 90%+ of the wealth is in the hands of 1-2% of the population. With any world above TL-7 using mechanized farming, birth control available at TL-6 and most desirable high TL manufactured goods being shipped out from those high pop worlds then there is no incentive to have a large family.

Once the UWPs are corrected it will be interesting to look at the distribution of high pop worlds geographically (term?). They might form a network of power siphoning off wealth and strength creating power bases. No wonder the Imperium broke up in 1116. There was little keeping it together. If economic power is based on localities and trade does not travel very far due to the high cost and available of high tech goods and food locally (say within eight parsecs) then why go elsewhere?
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Old April 9th, 2006, 02:25 PM
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Quote:
The vast bulk of the people living on Hi-pop worlds also means people's perspectives on what's typical for the Imperium is a bit skewed.

Going with GENII for the moment, the median tech level (by population) is D (close to E), the median law level is 9, the median government type is 9.

Counting by worlds, the median TL is B, the median law level is 5, the median government type is 5.

There are actually 242 pop-A worlds, holding 75% of the population of the Imperium.
What is the is the distribution like? Do we have the data in computer form so can we graph it?

Hmmm... More importantly is tech level and population linked?
Out of the 242 Pop A worlds what percentage of them is above TL-13
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Old April 9th, 2006, 02:47 PM
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Note that the GEnie listings also include a chunk of the Solomani Sphere, which was generated to have more HiPops than normal. If you weren't screening for Imperial worlds in that data, the Solomani worlds could skew your numbers considerably.

The GEnie data also has issues...

242 is a reasonable number considering the generation method, however. In a standard density sector, Pop-A worlds should average about one per subsector. That turns into a LOT of HiPop worlds, particularly since adding Pop-9 worlds in should triple that number and represent another 15% of the population.

That the median are at TL 13 under faceless and often intrusive governments should make the attraction of the other 93% of the occupied worlds that much stronger.
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Old April 10th, 2006, 03:18 AM
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I did filter for Imperial worlds. While the GENII data has issues, it's actually fairly close to what you'd get for a random distribution given the worldgen rules (theoretically, pop-A should be about 81% of the population).

If there were 11,000 worlds in the 3I, 1/36 of those (a little over 300) would be pop-A. There's actually about 9,000 worlds on the dot map, which is consistent with about 250 pop-A worlds.

The median pop-A world has a law level of 10; it's the lower pop worlds that just barely pull the median down. 13 is the average TL for a pop-A world, though.
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Old April 10th, 2006, 04:01 PM
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Quote:
Originally posted by Anthony:
I did filter for Imperial worlds.
Cool. Just checking...
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Old May 15th, 2006, 01:57 PM
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Sunbane/Genie data is nearly spot-on for population estimate purposes. Its main problems are with bases (especially depots and way stations), "desert/non-desert" world identifications (many, many times, atmosphere digit A is generated for 'water' worlds, but current Traveller understanding is that there is no water on atmosphere 'A' worlds), and stellar data.

Also, world SAH (size-atmosphere-hydrosphere) can also be non-random, but this trend hasn't really been studied much, since AOTI only indirectly touches on it.

Finally, there are artifacts of the milieu in Sunbane data: many worlds throughout the central sectors are at TL16. (You can see examples of this in Massilia, but Sunbane has worlds like this in many sectors). Until the terminal stage of the Third Imperium, the tech max is 15.

The problems which plague Sunbane data also vary wildly from sector to sector. A few sectors are nearly perfect (Corridor, Reaver's Deep, Lishun?), while others are terrible (Zarushagar).

Kurt, if 200 worlds in the Imperium are pop digit 9 and A, and that represents 75% of the population, well that means that about one third of those worlds are pop A, which means that about 70 worlds contain about 67% of the total Imperial population.

Here's a monkeywrench: Suppose those high pop worlds were already populated by nonhuman (NH) sophonts, long before the Ziru Sirka found them, and suppose 50% of the world population is still indigenous...
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