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Old March 12th, 2008, 08:25 AM
dan891 dan891 is offline
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Should the Manchurians have managed to sieze Moscow - there would have been an armistace at the least and as you say the CAR falls into the Manchurian sphere.

Occupation of Russia would have been problematical and really not in Manchuria's interests. Garrisoning would have been a nightmare and insurgency would rear its head sooner rather than later. The Manchurians could try to force demiliterisation on Russia but would have to occupy to do it whith the problems outlined above.

In addition to which you will still have a large number of pro-Russian CAR citizens to worry about, not to mention the wild card of the Islamic forces as well, which wouldn't be easy bedfellows with the Manchurians.

France would still have its military coup, and continue its military reforms. It would probably be involved in supporting any insurgency in the CAR. It is, along with Russia, probably itching for a second round. It might also take harder measures in Elysia, which isn't settled by now.

You also have problems of scope with the Central Asian War. It appears to be a limited war - like a massive Korean War - as it is confined largely to the Central Asian Republic. No sign of French strategic airpower hitting the Manchurian coastline from New Caledonian bases of the French and Japanese navies in blockade. No Franco-Bavarian occupation of Tunghu. etc

Manchurian support for the Elysians really is small beer - its dropping weapons to the resistance because you aren't strong enough to launch Overlord. Given French space power I would think the Manchurians are conducting a fleet in being strategy in the Chinese Arm with economy of force raiding/privateering in the French Arm. A Manchurian victory on Earth wouldn't change that preponderence of French space power in the colonies.

Would militerisation increase? Probably more on Earth than in the colonies but you might get a space naval race between France and Manchuria.

An early WoGR? Well Bavaria was a major participant in the war, probably not able to jump into a war with her ally straight away. And it is Bavaria France goes to war over not the unification of the other states You have the remaining German states without any recent experience against a very battle hardened French Army. (That said Germany has the advantage of interior lines, compact air defence against French strategic air and a French Army more set up to do sweeping combat on the Steppes than in the urban sprawl of the Rhine - but heavily outnumbered if France has mobilised the Empire which would be the assumption soon after the CAW.)

Quote:
Originally Posted by rfmcdpei View Post
Continuing a theme ...

The Central Asian War (2282-2287) was the biggest war fought by humanity before the Kafer Wars. Waged over Manchurian influence in the Central Asian Republic, the conflict seemed to go fairly well for Manchuria, which was able to sponsor and even supply the Elysian war of independence deep in the French Arm at the same time that it steadily pushed back the Franco-Russian-led coalition opposing Manchuria. From what little I know, the Manchurians had apparently managed to push deep into European Russia before a Japanese intervention broke the offensive (i.e. deus ex machina was created to preserve balance in the Great Game).

Let's say that hadn't happened. The Manchurians successfully take Moscow, and the European coalition responds by negotiating an end to the war. In the post-war settlement, Manchuria is able to impose a protectorate over the Central Asian Republic, and who knows what will happen in Russia (a Korea-style protectorate? protracted occupation? demilitarization?). In the coming years, Manchuria starts to surpass a humiliated France.

What next? Does human space become considerably more militarized? Does the defeat so discredit the future junta that the French republic survives, if barely? Would the powers head for a rematch?
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