Thread: Manchuria
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Old December 16th, 2003, 08:24 AM
Pompe Pompe is offline
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I used 1998 data for China's provinces, did not count Siberia and Korea, and got a number of about 295 million. But that's just numbers.

Even if you argue that 2.7 billion is far too high, which I agree with, you still don't give a good reason for why the _270_ million figure should be the replacement and not say, 550 million or 900 million. It is just an assumption that Manchuria will not grow in 300 years.

You mention an ideal population for China, but such ideal populations have been used many times and usually to justify lower levels of populations in Europe too. The key problem with using them is that neither today nor 2300AD is in a situation where direct subsistence dependence on the land is necessary, and that the "ideal" usually is rather subjective. Without seeing the reference, I cannot say on what it is based. But trade, technology all makes high populations possible. I can almost assuredly say that many models would claim the Netherlands to be insanely overpopulated, but it still works.

Manchuria, including pieces of Siberia and the entire sparsely populated but resource-rich west of China, has good room for expansion. It is an immense area, certainly not all lousy. Just the three coastal and near-coastal provinces of Hebei, Jilin and Liaoning are almost three times the size of Britain together.
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