Thread: Manchuria
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Old December 16th, 2003, 05:18 AM
BMonnery BMonnery is offline
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Quote:
Originally posted by Pompe:
About right for what?

Lets look at what GDW published about Manchuria.

The population is given as 2.7 billion people in the E/CS. It is also called "the most powerful nation in Asia". Manchuria became the major regional power already in the 21st century, when it - rather foresightedly - seized resource-rich areas in China to support future expansion.

I don't think it is unrealistic to assume Manchuria was in a position to attract people as well as expand within the borders - and while the 2.7 billion does sound too much to me, I do not think Mr Monnery makes convincing arguments for why the 270 million figure would be the best number for 2300AD's Manchuria. The only argument I see is

1: that this number was mentioned in a non-canon discussion over ten years ago

and

2: that the present day population of what will be Manchuria (not including Korea) is in the range of about 270 million.

1: is certainly interesting, but in direct conflict with published albeit often dubious material from the E/CS. If the Genie info wasn't written by the GDW staff but just published where they attended, it is no more canon than anything put here is canon for 2320 simply because Colin and the rest of the T20 crew frequents/runs this message board.

2: is interesting as a baseline glimpse of Manchuria today and as a criticism against the 2.7 billion figure, but again the relevance of this argument is weak for saying it will still be 270 million in 2300AD. Lots of nations in 2300AD have significantly different population numbers than today, after all, it is a nuke war and three centuries ahead. Mr Monnery, do you also assume the population in the UK in 2300AD is the same as today?
Even with 272 million, Manchuria could still be regarded as more powerful than Canton, Indonesia or Japan.

The data I used is old (1993 ISTR) but I had population data for every Chinese Province and the ceased territories outside of China proper. Including Korea, Tibet and southern Siberia, Manchuria was ISTR about 250 million. The one that didn't fit was Rump China, who had suffered a fair crash.

The UK's 111.644 million is a lot bigger than the ~70 million of today (62 million in the UK, 4 million in Eire and 2-4 million illegals). However, Britain is not having trouble coping with these numbers which represent a 60% increase over the present vice Manchurias 1,300% increase (that's from the recesses of my memory though and may be inaccurate). China does have a problem with her current population which should ideally be (ISTR) 6-700 million.

Assuming the UK is willing to import food from the colonies the 111.644 figure is probably okay. 272 million is okay for Manchuria, but 2.72B will see mass starvation.

Bryn
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