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-   -   My next Twilight War (http://www.travellerrpg.com/CotI/Discuss/showthread.php?t=34359)

Sir Brad May 11th, 2015 06:20 AM

My next Twilight War
 
Every few years I write a new version of how the Twilight War will happen and how things get to the games start point five to ten years hence.

My new one reaches it's tipping point with the accidental death of Vladimir Putin.

the lead up has Russia pulling a few more Ukraine style stunts till there is a turn around with Ethnic Poles living in what is now part of Russia trying to take the territories seeded to Russia during WWII and it's aftermath, wile Ethnic Germans in Poland are split along re-establishing Germanic states along the old Kingdom borders or joining Germany.

at a time I call "Next Wednesday" Vladimir Putin is preforming Show Jumping and Trick Riding stunts in front of a domestic and foreign press gallery, when he falls from his horse wile at full canter, the assembled press is told he has a mild-moderate Concussion and is suffering from Cord Shock, that Saturday a truck carrying heavy construction equipment suffers brake failure and rams the electricity substation serving the Presidents hospital and he dies due to lack of power to his life support, as the world will find out in coming weeks President Putin's injuries where more sever than first reported. with wide spread corruption or incompetence allegation against numerous politicians, senior public servants and judges a former KGB General turned Industrialist and friendly rival in conservative political circles of the dead President and a senior general in the Armies Auditor Generals Office stage a coup and cease power, immediately there are mass arrests of Politicians, Senior Officials and Oligarchs accused of Corruption reportedly somewhere around a trillion US$ worth of assets are ceased. Large amounts of ceased liquidity are used to back pay the Police, Military, Public Servants, Pensions ect. the Emergency Government of the Russian Federation had promised election in six months time and made serious moves to prepare for them, but the elections would never come as by then WWIII will be under-way.

Pt. 2: "How the Tanks Started Rolling" coming soon

Sir Brad May 11th, 2015 10:10 AM

Poland would become the starting point for the war in Europe with Ethnic Nationalist Poles agitating for redrawing of the eastern polish boarders so they could re-join their motherland and German Ethnic Nationalists in Poland doing the same for the western boarder. In Russia rallies and protests where band from the start, but in Poland peaceful rallies where allowed but as tensions escalated a growing number of Polish officially band rallies and protests but unofficially allowed them to go forward provided they remained peaceful, Neo-NAZI's and Anarchists had wide infiltration of the Germanic protests (despite the best efforts of the orginasers) and the Polish Counter-Protests where regularly infiltrated by Anarchists. As time went on once peaceful rallies and protests became less so and would regular degenerate in to riots and agitators would would fire on Police or gunmen hidden on rooftops would fire on to all sides and bloody three way street battle would erupt.

increasing numbers of police and military where allocated to western Poland to deal with the growing violence and medical professionals from all over Europe traveled to Poland to volunteer their services to relieve their over taxed colleagues, among them where Military doctors and nurses granted special leave. Germany was providing Air-Ambulances to help transfer the injured and had opened hospitals throughout north-eastern Germany to help with any overflow

then came the day historians would credit as the first of the Third World War, an other wave of protests where underway with German Nationals where busing themselves into Poland to support the various Germanic groups and Polish protesters coming from central and eastern Poland to join the counter protesters, when the rallies turned to riots that would engulf entire cities, that night a German Military Air-Ambulance was transporting those injured, it was in Polish airspace with permission of the Civil Government, but not all hastily called up Reservists where made aware of this, one such Reservist (who thankfully for them was never properly identified) seeing a German Military IFF firered an anti-aircraft missile at the helicopter that was damaged and would crash before it could cross back in to Germany, after hours of seaming inaction by Polish authorities a company of German Boarder-guards crossed in to Poland to recover classified technology, the bodies of the dead and any survivors (that there was only one of, a Polish Policeman wounded in that days rioting), as the Boarder-guards where withdrawing a Polish Army unit arrived at the crash sight and a brief amount of gunfire was exchanged.

in the coming days tensions between Germany and Poland worsened, Medical aid was suspended and when a German Air-Force Doctor volunteering in western Poland was dragged from a hospital then Drawn and Quartered by an Anarchist gang live in front of BBC and Al Jazeera news crews Germany orders the recall of all military volunteers on special leave many of whom had become trapped in secured hospitals, Germany would send in extraction teams for them and any foreign national that feared for their safety or had bean recalled by there own governments, some times these teams acted with permission of the polish government sometimes not.

with the German military acting with what appeared to be virtual impunity in western Poland a Russian army that for months had bean quietly massing on the eastern boarder crossed and would roll over eastern and central Poland in three days claiming their presence was to rebuff German Aggression, Germany sent a hastily assembled army in to counter the Russian advance, the Polish army in the east had bean largely transferred to the west to deal with the riots, what remained was no match for the advancing Russians and was ordered not to engage, in the west the Polish Army initially tried to force out the Germans, but on the forth day of fighting Germany and Poland came to terms, German Troops would withdraw as soon as NATO and EU troops could replace them, till then they would act as peacekeepers, it was on this day that the first canon fire between Germany and Russia would take place. Russian troops where about to apprehend members of the Polish Government, but the Germans got to the delegation first and took them to Germany before allowing them to travel on to Holland where the Free-Polish Government in Exile was preparing to meet as the first NATO and EU Troops where replacing the withdrawing Germans.

Elsewhere in Europe Russia was sending armies in to former Soviet member and client states, just weeks before the much anticipated Russian elections they where called off in anticipation of a formal deceleration of War.

and things just went down hill from there till things hit the conditions of 1 July in the book only in 2020 instead of 2000

Magnus von Thornwood May 11th, 2015 05:21 PM

Warning, warning! Danger Will Robinson!
 
Just a quick reminder: Real World politics are very much no-go territory outside the Pit. Might want to change the names to protect your own innocence. No Red Card, yet. Just a note that you might want to redact your data better.

We aren't throwing down the hammer, but you are treading on a thin line. Right now because it is a Twilight: 2000 thread you aren't getting a hard infraction, but I would suggest renaming or just using titles to keep clear of any "Imperial Entanglements".

Magnus von Thornwood May 11th, 2015 05:39 PM

Now as a Citizen, not Moderator...
 
Dude, are serious? Poland? For real?

Do you know the history of the Prussian Nation of Poland.

*read in Fire Marshall Bill voice* Let me tell you something.

First off, the Poles are not going to agitate to to join either if those polities near them, we don't of really don't like them much. See me grandma on my dad's side was pretty much the first American of her family so this topic is rather close to home for me. So, yeah, a smidge of personal bias, but backed by some very historical evidence.

First off, the Germans. Let us not forget just where Germany and the Poles stand. No fanarking way is Poland going to "join" with the power that used them as the starting line for World War Two. Little advertised fact some of the baddest of the RAF fighter aces were Free Poles, not Brits. Remember the Poles got held to the leash for most of the war, but once off the leash they killed the hell out of the Germans with vengence and glee in their hearts. Sort of scared the rest of the Allies from what I gather. Point is the Germans and Poles are pretty okay being seperate countries. Also the Germans are still rather cognizant of their place in Polish history and treat them with maybe not kid gloves, but a certain deference.

Second, the #%€|> Russians. Oh, Hells no are they getting a piece of Poland, we just got rid of those beepity-beeping beeps. First just a very quick dip to the 20th Century forget not that the USSR started its disintegration when the Poles started getting uppity. Now back to WWII. Those Russian on the Eastern Border, they left Poles to die while they watched on the other side of the river instead of coming across and helping, they waited for both sides to kill each other and then came in and occupied and claimed victory and the Nation. So, um, not joining, though a they are the most likely candidate to just straight up invade Poland...again.

Seriously look into their history, they are not looking to join with any other country, like the one they won free, would like to keep it that way.

Also, on the whole...iffy. Too many bad rolls. But hey not my game so do what you will.

Sir Brad May 11th, 2015 10:09 PM

I apologises for coming close to the line, hopefully this post can clarify my previous ones and demonstrate my thought processes

I'm not trying to put the war on any government let alone a current real world one, in fact the ones based on current real world ones are standing around trying to hand out Chill Pills. I'm putting it on Ethno-Nationalist moments trying to redraw the maps all over Europe not just in the areas covered in my initial posts, in my first posts the German Ethno-Nationalists want to re-draw Poland's western boarder, Polish Ethno-Nationalists want to redraw the eastern boarder (taking a bite out of Russia). the German Government dose not support the Germanic Ethno-Nationalists and until things got out of hand tried to support the Polish Government wile respecting it's sovereignly, once the War starts for the first 6-12 months of the shooting war Germany wanted out of Poland trying to hand it of to NATO and the EU, things will change when the first Russian tanks reach Berlin at tipping point +20 months. as for Poland as a whole they don't want to change their boarders and are not supporting their Ethno-Nationalists in Russia and has enough troubles with the fringe groups in their western provinces. Germany as a Nation-State wants to stay out of Poland, Poland as a Nation-State wants things to settle down and not provoke anybody, where as Russia is under new management and everyone is looking at them with concern.

In this version the War was accidental started by some poor guy who History never learns the name of, who with no information makes a very bad judgement call.

I'm trying to write a time line that readers can say if folks only took a step back hear or someone did there job there, the tanks would not have rolled and the nukes would not have fell. the road to the Twilight War was built by human failings large and small, Intentional and unintentional.

A good Twilight Timeline is written by taking a geopolitical nightmare of the time of it's writing and with the help of some miss-turns mankind finds itself rushing down the path to World War. It should also be frighting to the reader and not over in 600-1200 pages like a Clancy novel with the good guys winning and things going back to how they where before, in Twilight the Diminutive Canine has be Indecently Dealtwith, there should be more than enough blame to go around and no hands should be completely clean.

when writing a Twilight timeline I start with a premise of how we get to 1 July 20XX then apply it to the area highlighted in the core book as "phase 1", "phase 2" is the rest of Eastern Europe then I hit either the RDF book or England, once I start a campaign by the time I reach "Going Home" I've got North America and Thailand sorted, I try to take the world from today and have it collapse to how it's presented in the books over the course of five to ten years.

McPerth May 11th, 2015 10:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sir Brad (Post 507437)
I apologises for coming close to the line, hopefully this post can clarify my previous ones and demonstrate my thought processes

I guess that's unavoidable, but as long as any reference to politics is fictional and game-setting derived, I'd say it's fine.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sir Brad (Post 507437)
I'm not trying to put the war on any government let alone a current real world one, in fact the ones based on current real world ones are standing around trying to hand out Chill Pills. I'm putting it on Ethno-Nationalist moments trying to redraw the maps all over Europe not just in the areas covered in my initial posts, in my first posts the German Ethno-Nationalists want to re-draw Poland's western boarder, Polish Ethno-Nationalists want to redraw the eastern boarder (taking a bite out of Russia). the German Government dose not support the Germanic Ethno-Nationalists and until things got out of hand tried to support the Polish Government wile respecting it's sovereignly, once the War starts for the first 6-12 months of the shooting war Germany wanted out of Poland trying to hand it of to NATO and the EU, things will change when the first Russian tanks reach Berlin at tipping point +20 months. as for Poland as a whole they don't want to change their boarders and are not supporting their Ethno-Nationalists in Russia and has enough troubles with the fringe groups in their western provinces. Germany as a Nation-State wants to stay out of Poland, Poland as a Nation-State wants things to settle down and not provoke anybody, where as Russia is under new management and everyone is looking at them with concern.

In this version the War was accidental started by some poor guy who History never learns the name of, who with no information makes a very bad judgement call.

I'm trying to write a time line that readers can say if folks only took a step back hear or someone did there job there, the tanks would not have rolled and the nukes would not have fell. the road to the Twilight War was built by human failings large and small, Intentional and unintentional.

A good Twilight Timeline is written by taking a geopolitical nightmare of the time of it's writing and with the help of some miss-turns mankind finds itself rushing down the path to World War. It should also be frighting to the reader and not over in 600-1200 pages like a Clancy novel with the good guys winning and things going back to how they where before, in Twilight the Diminutive Canine has be Indecently Dealtwith, there should be more than enough blame to go around and no hands should be completely clean.

when writing a Twilight timeline I start with a premise of how we get to 1 July 20XX then apply it to the area highlighted in the core book as "phase 1", "phase 2" is the rest of Eastern Europe then I hit either the RDF book or England, once I start a campaign by the time I reach "Going Home" I've got North America and Thailand sorted, I try to take the world from today and have it collapse to how it's presented in the books over the course of five to ten years.

Your setting it's (IIRC, there's some time since I saw my copy last time) not too unlike T2K 2nd edition (published after Germany reunification, in 1990).

The main problem is that situation has changed now too much as to find an easy explanation of the war as described there. Most Europe has reduced their armed forces to a point the timline of the war would be absolutly different (e.g. Germany, that had, as FRG a 12 division + suport army in the times the setting for T2K was written has reduced it to 10 brigades).

My guess is to treat T2K as an alternative history, not as near futuristic background.

See that Colin Dun (IMHO quite wisely), when writing MgT 2300 does not even try to explain what happened in the twilight years, just assuming they happened and the archives left are not trustworthy enough as to explain them...

Magnus von Thornwood May 11th, 2015 10:38 PM

Coolie beans.
 
No problems, just want to keep people from getting in trouble.

Okay, so what you are proposing is extremist from all sides drag the Great Powers into a war they don't really want..mostly. That makes a bit more sense. Man, it really does suck to be Poland. Once again everybody goes to war in their backyard.

Sir Brad May 11th, 2015 11:29 PM

Not just Poland but a lot of places in eastern Europe from the Baltic to the Balkans had the same kind of stuff happening to them as well, it's just that in Poland it went large "Live and Direct" on western media, once the war got under way the Polish front was one of the most active.

Magnus von Thornwood May 12th, 2015 03:05 PM

Yeah, yeah.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sir Brad (Post 507445)
Not just Poland but a lot of places in eastern Europe from the Baltic to the Balkans had the same kind of stuff happening to them as well, it's just that in Poland it went large "Live and Direct" on western media, once the war got under way the Polish front was one of the most active.

Sure everyone else is fighting too, got it. Still, just once could Europe have a war that didn't involve fighting in Poland? :)

Sir Brad May 12th, 2015 07:51 PM

unfortunately it is the express rout between the Western powers and Russia, the next best way through the Chech republic, then the Slovakia bottleneck before fighting your way across Ukraine to reach Russia, or you could go through Scandinavia.

the geography that makes it the preferred overland trade rout between the west and Russia also makes it the best way to march your army to Moscow.


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