Citizens of the Imperium

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-   -   2300AD/2320 What If: Bavaria stays out of Germany (http://www.travellerrpg.com/CotI/Discuss/showthread.php?t=15205)

ben51 April 17th, 2008 04:21 PM

I have to agree with BMonnery here. Having been a big T2K player prior to moving on to 2300AD I have always felt that the 2300 borders were/are a bit too "current". Given the level of destruction that occured in the Twilight War one would think that their would have been major re-organizations of national boundaries.

Poland especially was a total wreck. A realignment of Germany's eastern border seemed a logical outgrowth of the military situation (with the added bonus that Germany could finally get the correct Oder River boundary as intended at the end of WWII).

In my T2K/2300AD I also have a few micro-states arising from left behind military units carving out their own countries. My two favorite were Ruritania along the Czech-German border created by an alliance of US-Soviet troops and allowed to exist because it formed a useful buffer between Germany and Czechoslovakia, and Grand Fenwick centered on Dubrovnik, formed by survivors of the US 42nd Infantry Division (NY NG).

I just don't see France having the resources or will to preserve near pre-war boundaries. Sure they were better off than most of the globe but they still were in a world of hurt. By the time they had become a superpower (around 2060 per 2300AD canon) a redrawing of the new boundaries would be near impossible. Given mass die offs and migrations the original ethnic may longer even be present in the region in question. I think France played a game of strict "real politics" without delving into misguided Wilsonian Idealism.

Benjamin

mbrinkhues April 17th, 2008 04:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BMonnery (Post 255857)
Bavaria, the successor state to West Germany/ FRG is not the current province of Bavaria. It's West Germany minus the Rhineland (now metropolitan France), Westphalia (a French sponsored buffer state on the other side of the Rhine, possibly only the old "Dead Zone") and Hanover (what the British occupied and set up as a pseudo-puppet state in the early 21st century). Basically, Bavaria is what the German Army had at the end of the Twilight War. It may also embrace parts of what was Austria and Northern Italy.

The two eastern states (Brandenburg and Saxony) seem to have been built around former Eastern German army units that weren't really loyal to the new Germany....

Before 2292, the terms Bavaria and Germany are interchangable...

Actually Westfalen (Westfalia) IRL is bordering the Netherlands. It is the former Prussian Province of the same name. While it would make a good state to occupy (Little Population, few targets for nukes, agrarian/net exporter and not overly patriotic) it has little value since it has little industrie.

Hannover is likely Nether-Saxony. Poor guys, they have a number of mayor targets, large population centers and they will be short on food. maybe one should really give them parts of Westfalia. The only problem is the first natural border to the west is the Weser and after that it's all the way to the Netherlands

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As for the DSKM not building the Bismarks etc.:

I think the crafts will be build anyway. Or something along the lines. Simply because there still IS the potential thread of the French PLUS the thread of the Bavarians with their Battleship.

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As for the Oder border: The Oder WAS the East German/Polish border IRL so no need to re-align borders. Actually the IRL Oder-Neisse Border would work quite well since it is a clearly visible physical border. If you really want to Re-Aline borders, the proper ones would be "From Maas to the Memel, From the Etsch to the Belt" ;)

BMonnery April 17th, 2008 05:40 PM

Amazing how people get around. (Randy I assume?), I see your point, and I've been mulling it over before replying on etranger.

One of my main counterpoints is that I'm considering that France etc. may see the eastern breakaway provinces as counterbalances to FRG in the short term. IRL France backed Prussia against Austria in 1866, not knowing what was round the corner....

However, if I was going the whole hog and rewriting the history of Europe,I would have many more, smaller, states. I'd probably, for example, have a state based around the Free City of Krakow....

mbrinkhues April 17th, 2008 06:23 PM

If you are refering to me, no I am not Randy McDonald. Didn't post on or read Etranger for some time.

rfmcdpei April 17th, 2008 06:23 PM

I'm consolidating my replies to you both into a single post for brevity.

(Yes, it's Randy McDonald.)

Quote:

I just don't see France having the resources or will to preserve near pre-war boundaries. Sure they were better off than most of the globe but they still were in a world of hurt. By the time they had become a superpower (around 2060 per 2300AD canon) a redrawing of the new boundaries would be near impossible. Given mass die offs and migrations the original ethnic may longer even be present in the region in question. I think France played a game of strict "real politics" without delving into misguided Wilsonian Idealism.
France does seem to have had some power-projection ability at the time, as evidenced by France's leadership of a coalition including Egypt and Britain (!)
in the 2010-2013 Saudi War. If France is able to dominate the Middle East after suffering tremendous damage, then a major role in defining European state frontiers seems quite possible to me.

I agree that France would engage in realpolitik in regards to Germany. In the aftermath of an unprecedentedly devastating war caused by an attempt at armed German reunification, France would likely act according to the maxim of François Mauriac: "I love Germany so dearly that I hope there will always be two of them." In this particular case, five Germanies would seem sufficient (five-and-a-half if the Netherlands is included) given the amount of damage that they caused.

It's not clear to me that Germany would necessarily come out among the less damaged countries of Europe. Both Germanies had a considerably higher pre-war population density than Poland or Czechoslovakia or Hungary, these three countries also having relatively stronger agricultural economies.

I'm quite prepared to agree with you that pre-Twilight state frontiers wouldn't have to correspond with ethnic boundaries. Mutual assimilation is possible over time, as is ethnic war--James Boschma has a Stettin War in the early 2160s between Brandenburg and Poland that results in population shifts.
Quote:

Originally Posted by BMonnery (Post 257314)
Amazing how people get around. (Randy I assume?), I see your point, and I've been mulling it over before replying on etranger.

One of my main counterpoints is that I'm considering that France etc. may see the eastern breakaway provinces as counterbalances to FRG in the short term. IRL France backed Prussia against Austria in 1866, not knowing what was round the corner....

I think it's doable without annexations in Czechoslovakia and Poland. Two methods come to mind.

1. East Germany managed to persist OTL for a bit over forty years despite its lack of its own identity or even legitimacy thanks to Soviet support. It seems possible to me that France supported the East German successor states (and Westphalia?) against the rump FRG through similar methods.

2. Perhaps more relevantly, there's also the precedent of Austria after the Second World War, which redefined itself as a nation and a culture separate from that of Germany after being devastated. Say that you're a German successor state, and that you're finding it exceptionally difficult to make it in the world because people resent you for what your nation did to theirs. What better way to escape that than to distance yourself from past atrocities by claiming that you belong to a separate nation?

This might explain the conundrum of Bavarian identity.

Say that "Bavaria" is initially the rump Federal Republic of Germany, commanding the loyalties of most of the southern half of the country plus the isolated city-state of Hamburg and other stuff. That seems at least as plausible an explanation as any for Bavaria's lead over the other German states, and does appeal to me. We know that, over the next three centuries, something happens to Bavarians, many of whom stop thinking of themselves as Germans and reidentify themselves as Bavarians.

When German reunification happens, the question of national identity is a big issue. Heidelsheimat secedes; Adlerhorst succumbs to a fairly nasty civil war; Dunkleheim credibly threatens to make a unilateral declaration of independence; people in the countryside of BC's German Continent feel more Bavarian than German; Garteners respond by seceding altogether and creating the new nation of Freihafen. Who knows what happens in Terran Bavaria? By the 2290s, even after a fairly substantial propaganda campaign, quite a few people were invested enough in a Bavarian identity separate from a German identity to be willing to fight for it, to die for it. How might this shift happen?

FRG ambassador, circa 2050: "Why, yes, we're reorganizing and renaming our country. In truth, we've had little to do with the Germans--we joined Germany in 1871 only because France and Austria were defeated. We're really quite different from them--we can trace our history back to the freedoms of the medieval Swabian confederation and the artistic accomplishments of the Wittelsbach dynasty and the technological advances of Baden-Württemburg and Frankfurt's history as a seat of economic trade and freedom. So, you see, we're really not Germans. Now can we please move on and start a joint trading company already?"

Quote:

However, if I was going the whole hog and rewriting the history of Europe,I would have many more, smaller, states. I'd probably, for example, have a state based around the Free City of Krakow....
I don't disagree with you that a rewritten history of Europe, and the world, might make more sense. (I'll be posting on the Latin Arm tomorrow.) My guiding principle is parsimony: I want to make what we're given work. Somehow, a jerry-rigged construction feels more real to me--more spontaneous, more believably complex--than something tidy. If that makes sense.

Besides, I'm lazy. ;-)

mbrinkhues April 17th, 2008 07:01 PM

Actually Germany CAN feed it's own population. That IRL it has less farming and land per person is due to EU regulations and money for letting fields fall fallow. Depending on how hard the airstrikes where (I can't find detailed data in T2K) there is also a solid distribution network (Channels, Rivers and trains(1)) And given the population concentration, often away from the farmland should work nicely too.

==================

Hamburg being Bavarian sounds funny. Hamburg is Protestant-Calvinistic and Bavaria is Catholic-Conservative(2) Same for some other "Bavarian" Regions ;)


(1) The channel network can be cut into pieces in case of damage and large parts work "lockless" It was designed/build pre WWII so it extends into East Germany with minor breaks not filled in a T2K 1.0 (non-unification) Timeline

(2) Munic/München is NOT Bavaria. Munic is an alien enclave within Bavaria

ben51 April 17th, 2008 09:56 PM

@Randy - I don't think France's leadership in the Saudi War really shows a superpower at work here. They took over from US troops which left in the 2008 and then fought off an Iranian attack. Given the lack of detail presented in canon I don't think we can really say what level of fighting really occured during this conflict. Given the pounding that Iran had taken I doubt that the Saudi War ever reached a level even close to high-intensity conventional warfare.

As for Germany...France has an interest in keeping Germany dismembered, but are they really willing to wade into the mess that is post-war Central Europe just to make a point on a few disputed border regions?

I can buy that Bavaria and even some of the other German states formed their own national identity. That seems totally reasonable given the nearly 300 years of history that occured. Which of course begs the question as to why the German states felt the need to unite at all.

Given that the sum total of canon material of World History is like covering 1700 to the present time of our history within a single issue of National Geographic Magazine I think that there is a lot of filling in we can do without ever messing with canon. I for one have French occupied Rhineland racked by revolts in 2070-2072, which are put down leading to large numbers of ethnic Germans emmigrating to the other German states and America. A second more extensive revolt occurs in 2151-2155 known as the German States Revolts leading to more emmigration over the next two decades. This of course mirrors the revolts of 1848-1849 which preceeded a major wave of German immigration into the US.

Benjamin

rfmcdpei April 17th, 2008 10:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ben51 (Post 257352)
@Randy - I don't think France's leadership in the Saudi War really shows a superpower at work here. They took over from US troops which left in the 2008 and then fought off an Iranian attack. Given the lack of detail presented in canon I don't think we can really say what level of fighting really occured during this conflict. Given the pounding that Iran had taken I doubt that the Saudi War ever reached a level even close to high-intensity conventional warfare.

Granted. What the Saudi War does suggest to me is that France is capable of force projection in a way that very few other countries, if any, can emulate in the first couple of decades after the Twilight War.

Quote:

As for Germany...France has an interest in keeping Germany dismembered, but are they really willing to wade into the mess that is post-war Central Europe just to make a point on a few disputed border regions?
But France is going to get involved in any case, in deciding which new borders between which countries to support on which grounds, and trying to get these countries to respect these boundaries. A France that's concerned with the economic rehabilitation of Europe isn't going to want caught up in unending disputes ("The line of mountains runs this way, the pre-Twilight settlement patterns go this way, our ancestors came here in xxxx ...").

The pre-war frontiers--at least, outside of the German states--have the key advantage of being already established. Compare the situation in OTL Yugoslavia, where the seven successor states that have emerged from the SFRY all had long histories as federal units of the SFRY, and have kept their SFRY-era territories.

That these frontiers have the advantage of tightly containing the German states ... Well.

Quote:

I can buy that Bavaria and even some of the other German states formed their own national identity. That seems totally reasonable given the nearly 300 years of history that occured. Which of course begs the question as to why the German states felt the need to unite at all.
National identities can change over time. I can easily buy Schumpeter's perception that France was trying to manipulate the German states, turning them against each other. Likely a fair number of other people in the other German states felt the same way--it's difficult to explain how he wouldn't have been regarded as a nutcase otherwise. If the German states felt less defensive about their identity and who knows what sort of processes went on, unification is a possibility. Who knows? There may well have been and be a significant amount of German nationalist sentiment in Austrovenia that never managed to get beyond fringe status.

The problem with all this is that the Terran Germans managed to misunderstand the processes going on elsewhere in German-speaking space rather badly. If three-quarters of your colonial population secedes in the two decades after unification ...

Quote:

Given that the sum total of canon material of World History is like covering 1700 to the present time of our history within a single issue of National Geographic Magazine I think that there is a lot of filling in we can do without ever messing with canon. I for one have French occupied Rhineland racked by revolts in 2070-2072, which are put down leading to large numbers of ethnic Germans emmigrating to the other German states and America. A second more extensive revolt occurs in 2151-2155 known as the German States Revolts leading to more emmigration over the next two decades. This of course mirrors the revolts of 1848-1849 which preceeded a major wave of German immigration into the US.
Agreed!

BMonnery April 18th, 2008 05:09 AM

A quick note, Schumpter is non-canon. It was a fan based article from the original gENIE group.


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